policy-relevant findings presentation to idrc board of governors kani lanka hotel 22 january 2009

Policy-relevant findings

Presentation to IDRC Board of GovernorsKani Lanka Hotel22 January 2009

For internal circulation until 11 Feb 2009

Our mission

To improve the lives of the people of the emerging Asia-Pacific by facilitating their use of ICTs and related infrastructures; by catalyzing the reform of

laws, policies and regulations to enable those uses through the conduct of policy-relevant research, training and advocacy with emphasis on building

in-situ expertise

Teleuse@BOP3:Policy-relevant findingsAyesha ZainudeenResearch Manager & Demand-Side Specialist, LIRNEasia


Study info

• Objective: To understand how BOP interacts with ICTs (mostly phones) to better inform policy• Large surveys of ‘BOP’ conducted in 2005, 2006, 2008• Almost 20,000 face to face interviews in 6 countries since

2005• Bangladesh (2008)• Pakistan• India• Sri Lanka• Philippines• Thailand


Houshold characteristics

Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines* Thailand

Mean (USD)(SD)

117(106)

127(115)

99(79)

151(92)

127(64)

172(66)

USD PPP 320 429 288 377 258 371

Monthly household income (USD)


Household access to communication technologies

Computer

Phone


Recent use of the phone to make/receive calls

Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand

% of outer sample (those approached belonging to SEC D or E)

95% 96% 86% 88% 79% 77 %

Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand% of outer sample (those approached belonging to SEC D or E)

82% 66% 65% 77% 38% 72%

Used a phone in the last 3 months

Used a phone in the last week

7


Growth in phone ownership since 2006 survey

• BOP mostly own mobile phones (brand new, prepaid), except in Sri Lanka• Those below 35 years of age more often own phones• Men more often own phones in South Asia than women


Our predictions vs actual growth

??


Urban-rural divide in ownership: 2006 vs 2008

1.4 urban owners for every

rural owner

1.4 urban owners for every

rural owner


What the BOP does with phones

• Pakistani women rely most often on other peoples’ phones (neighbor or male household member); Pakistani men have their own phones

• Almost all Bangladeshi mobile owners use ‘missed calls’ (beeps); “missed call” games?

• Some Filipinos don’t make any calls from their phones; 100% SMS/texting

Usage

Missed calls (beeps)•Used across the board (except Thailand)

– Urban, rural– Men, women– More popular among younger

mobile owners

Missed calls (beeps)•Used across the board (except Thailand)

– Urban, rural– Men, women– More popular among younger

mobile owners

Text messaging (SMS)•Less popular than missed calls (except Philippines)

– More so among younger, urban mobile owners

– Men in Pakistan, Women in Thailand

Text messaging (SMS)•Less popular than missed calls (except Philippines)

– More so among younger, urban mobile owners

– Men in Pakistan, Women in Thailand

Internet•Little use

– mostly among younger urban dwellers, more often males in Pakistan and Sri Lanka

•Awareness still poor , especially among females, rural and older respondents

Internet•Little use

– mostly among younger urban dwellers, more often males in Pakistan and Sri Lanka

•Awareness still poor , especially among females, rural and older respondents


Dissemination

• Media coverage in 80+ articles• 47+ presentations to various audiences (policy

makers, regulators, industry, media, etc)– 2006-07

• Sri Lankan telecom operators (Oct 07)• Indian Universal Service Fund Office (Mar 07)• Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (Jun 07)• Telenor Research & Innovation Asia Pacific (Mar 08)

– 2008-10• Cellular Operators Association of India (Feb 09)• …

Stripping out regressive and discriminatory elements from a mobile-only tax Rohan SamarajivaChair and CEO, LIRNEasia


Anatomy of a regressive tax+General

tax pre-2007 Proposed Revised

Value+17.5% VAT

& SRL +2.5% MSL+7.5%

MSL & 50Tax as % of

value +10% MSL Savings

200 235 241 303 51.3 259 -44

400 470 482 555 38.8 517 -38

600 705 723 808 34.6 776 -32

800 940 964 1061 32.6 1034 -27

1000 1175 1204 1313 31.3 1293 -21

1200 1410 1445 1566 30.5 1551 -15

1400 1645 1686 1818 29.9 1810 -9

1600 1880 1927 2071 29.4 2068 -3

1800 2115 2168 2324 29.1 2327 3

2000 2350 2409 2576 28.8 2585 9

Range of PrepaidARPUs

Relativewinners

Losers


Translation: We will be pleased if Hon. Minister removes the regressive tax of LKR 50 as pointed out by Prof. Rohan Samarajiva, Dr. Harsha de Silva of LIRNEasia and UNP Members. We also request not to increase the mobile subscriber levy to 10%. This tax will have an adverse effect on the common man.

From the Hansard, September 6, 2007

September 3, 2008

“I do not accuse the government of being that foolish. They are not killing the goose; their behavior is more like

that of trying to milk the goose for more eggs. The end result, however, will be a stressed goose yielding less

eggs than it otherwise would have”

“I do not accuse the government of being that foolish. They are not killing the goose; their behavior is more like

that of trying to milk the goose for more eggs. The end result, however, will be a stressed goose yielding less

eggs than it otherwise would have”

It is time for the Ministers of Investment Promotion, Posts and Telecom and related subjects to

reeducate the people at Treasury who have forgotten what they were

taught in their Public Finance courses.

It is time for the Ministers of Investment Promotion, Posts and Telecom and related subjects to

reeducate the people at Treasury who have forgotten what they were

taught in their Public Finance courses.

True wisdom lies in making government smaller and more

efficient. Until then, desisting from service, technology and group-specific

taxes and regressive taxes will do.

True wisdom lies in making government smaller and more

efficient. Until then, desisting from service, technology and group-specific

taxes and regressive taxes will do.

November 6, 2008

Benchmarking and regulatory performanceHelani GalpayaChief Operating Officer & Indicators Specialist, LIRNEasia


Opportunity: South Asia Broadband Conference, Sep ‘07. Research picked up by AFP


AFP story picked up in multiple media outlets, including some in PK

“...according to Colombo-based

LIRNEasia, a regional telecom think-tank” AFP Dawn

“...according to Colombo-based

LIRNEasia, a regional telecom think-tank” AFP Dawn

“ PAKISTANIS PAY MOST IN SOUTH ASIA TO ACCESS

IINTERNET”

“ PAKISTANIS PAY MOST IN SOUTH ASIA TO ACCESS

IINTERNET”


Gets regulator’s attention AND response

..and so on. Multiple emails/conversations back and forth

about methodology, prices

..and so on. Multiple emails/conversations back and forth

about methodology, prices


6 months later…

Price Drop: 64%Price Drop: 64%


NRA web site rankings 2005: PK on top

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General (regulatory new s, site features)

Business (market entry, interconnection etc.)

Consumer (rights, complaining process etc)

Factual (Legal and stat)


PTA mentions in 2006 annual report

“…international recognitions given to the country in the field of telecom include the GSMA Government Leadership Award 2006, …, and LIRNEasia Best Website of the Regulator Award”

“…international recognitions given to the country in the field of telecom include the GSMA Government Leadership Award 2006, …, and LIRNEasia Best Website of the Regulator Award”


TRE survey results also presented in PK (Jun ‘07). Results in 27 different news items for LIRNEasia


Repeated benchmarking continued engagement. E.g. 2008 NRA website rankings, PK best in south Asia. Picked up by the Financial Express

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Financial Express, 18 June 2008


Ongoing engagement: 2008 year-end message by new PTA Chairman

From spot to forward markets in Agriculture: An example of catalytic effects of IDRC funded researchHarsha de SilvaLead Economist, LIRNEasia


Our original research

• Pre-IDRC – Work started at Dambulla in 2003

• IDRC enter the picture in 2007• Beyond IDRC, beyond Dambulla


Spot market volatility at Dambullano price dissemination


Price collectionusing simple ICT tools


Disseminating pricesbig display boards across market


Farmer empowermentsession history and going price

Lowest price and

time

Highest price and

time

Last traded price, time and stall number


Bigger problem not solvedcontinued longer term volatility




• IDRC enter the picture in 2007– How can we reduce this volatility?– Will ICT help? – Approached from an economics stand point

• Beyond IDRC, beyond Dambulla


We broke down the value chaininnovation in transaction cost work


…and showed the criticality of informationcost of information at decision is very high


We catalyzed thinkingin two directions

• One– Reducing transaction costs [information search costs]

along the [limited] value chain, with ICT

• The other– Creating forward markets; linking the growing decision

with selling decision, with ICT




• IDRC enter the picture in 2007– How can we reduce this volatility?– Will ICT help? – Approached from an economics stand point

• Beyond IDRC, beyond Dambulla


infoDev proposes to EUhelping reduce transaction costs


FARA disseminates in Africawith e-agriculture.org; CGIAR, FAO, GTZ; reduce transaction costs


Agriculture at Gates Foundationwith GTC developing tech strategy to reduce transaction costs


CORE; conflict resolution in LKcreating forward markets to link regions


Tenet at IIT Madrascollaboration to develop forward markets

• Extending our work to Tenet to help create forward markets in Tamilnadu, India– Economics focus [from tech centric]– Linking small scale farmers with forward exchanges via ICT


Way forward

• LIRNEasia, using IDRC funding, is catalyzing world-wide thinking on improving efficiency in rural agriculture markets using simple and affordable communication technology

• Need to sustain efforts to generate further evidence and push policymakers to change thinking based on such evidence. It is a challenge but, there is hope!

Capacity Building as ResearchSujata GamageLead Scientist, LIRNEasia (Knowledge to Innovation Program)


• In building capacity for telecom reform, we have developed a research stream that extends LIRNEasia’s definition of infrastructure to include knowledge


CPRsouth as a capacity building exercise


CPRsouth objectives

• To facilitate the creation, sustenance and continuous advancement of

policy intellectuals capable of informed and effective intervention in ICT policy and regulation processes in specific country and regional contexts in the south

• To develop capacity, stimulate interest, and promote research and systematic study in information and communication technology (ICT) policy and regulatory issues in the South, broadly constituted to include the Asia-Pacific (AP), Africa (AF), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Central Asian regions (CIS)


CPRsouth conferences (3 so far)components

• Research papers presented as policy briefs by younger researchers (seven sessions; roughly 21 papers) – Papers selected through short-listing of double-blind review of

abstracts and subsequent review of full papers; mentoring

• Plenaries/panels by senior researchers who are successful as public intellectuals (at most four sessions)

• Tutorials for the next generation of researchers• Communication training


CPRsouth community (31 countries)growth and consolidation

CPR1 CPR2 CPR3

All Presenters + Young Scholars (cumulative) 50 97 144

Repeat applicants (from among presenters) 11 29

Repeat applicants (from among Young scholars) 3 11

Total Repeat applicants 14 40

Percent trying to return 28% 41%


CPRsouth outputs

(Response Rate: Oct 2007 - 49%, 18/37; Oct 2008 - 40%, 34/82)

CPRsouth outputs

Mary Grace Mirandilla• Attended LIRNEasia Executive Course on Regulation in

Singapore, September 2005 on IDRC funded scholarship• Participated in LIRNEasia networking meeting Jakarta in

October 2005• Assisted LIRNEasia Researcher Lorraine Salazar in TRE

research in the Philippines in 2006• Participated in CPRsouth1 in Manila as a Young Scholar

(conference + tutorials)• Was selected as a paper giver at CPRsouth2 in Chennai;

Paper was seen as one of the best; currently under review by Information Technology and International Development (MIT Press)

• Was among Top 7 papers at CPRsouth3 in Beijing; featured in dialogue with Jonathan Aronson


Grace: A mode 2 policy intellectual

• Briefing paper on Philippines telecom policy for "Philippine Development Forum" (government’s primary mechanism for policy dialogue among stakeholders on the development agenda), Feb 2007

• "Community telecenters as a development tool for rural areas“ at international conference organized by U. of Philippines National College of Public Administration & Governance, April 2007

• 2 EOIs for project funding through The Asia Foundation, to AusAID and to University of Washington, 2007

• “Support systems for community eCenters,” 4th Knowledge Exchange Conference, Manila, April 2008


CPRsouthour research outputs

Gamage & Samarajiva, Internet presence as knowledge capacity: The case of research in ICT infrastructure reform

Gamage & Samarajiva, Internet presence as knowledge capacity: The case of research in ICT infrastructure reform


CPRsouthour research outputs


• While building capacity, we are redefining it

• Current working definition:– “Capacity as a culture of learning and innovation in

society”

The geography of CPRsouth

policy-relevant findings presentation to idrc board of governors kani lanka hotel 22 january 2009

Documents

womenfor internal circulation

phones men

urban mobile ownersmen

mobile phones brand

urban owners

phone ownership

younger urban dwellers

peoples phones neighbor