PolicyPointsEU enlargement & migration

Dhananjayan SriskandarajahInstitute for Public Policy Research (ippr)

2

Floodgates or turnstiles?

• The potential scale and impact of migration is one of the most heated aspects of EU enlargement

• An unhappy coincidence? The politics and economics of EU meets the politics and economics of migration

• Result = media frenzy• This feeds into wider fears about migration, benefit

tourism, failing government policies, Roma etc.• Key is to untangle issues, examine evidence, and

generate appropriate policies.

3

3 main concerns for EU15

• Large scale of the enlargement (10 new members and 75 million people) and the

• large economic disparities between existing and new members may lead to

• large and uncontrolled flows of unskilled or low-skilled workers that will undercut wages in EU15 countries.

4

Transitional restrictions?

• Concerns about impact of migration on some EU15 countries led to transitional restrictions being permitted as part of the Accession treaties.

• These restrictions: – can only be imposed up to 2011 at the latest;

– can only be applied to workers and services and not other flows (e.g. visitors, students);

• Countries like Germany & Austria indicated early on that they would impose restrictions but other EU15 countries imposed restrictions at the last minute.

5

But UK should not panic

• Surveys and economic models predict small flows• Previous enlargement experience didn’t result in large

flows from South to North• UK is not a likely destination for accession nationals• There will be initial rise but then gradual decrease• Peak stock: 3-4 million in EU15; 200,000 in UK• Peak annual flows: 370,000 to EU15; 17,000 to UK• Migrants will most likely be young, single,

reasonably well educated and come for short periods

6

Opportunities for the UK

• Main question is ‘when’ to allow free access not ‘if’• UK decision to allow migrant workers access now

rather than later makes economic sense because:– unemployment is low at the moment;

– there are skills shortages that accession nationals can fill;

– more legal flows will reduce demand for illegal workers;

– the UK stands to gain an early starter advantage.

• Escape clauses: if flows are larger than expected the UK can reduce other migration streams or impose restrictions later.

7

New policies for a new Europe?

• Essential to situate debate about migration within wider aspirations for EU

• Important to reaffirm the relatively small scale of migration after enlargement and that EU policies are determined by evidence rather than media hysteria.

• Unwarranted fears about migration should not lead to a two-tier Europe

• Migration in an enlarged EU may cause short-term upheaval in some areas but it also offers opportunities for new and old member states alike