polish commercial property markets 2012 · 2018. 12. 29. · orange atrium international mokotowska...
TRANSCRIPT
savills.pl
Polish Commercial Property Markets 2012 Breakfast Seminar
27 November 2012
1
Agenda
Economy
2 Investment
3 Office Warsaw
4 Office regional cities
5 Retail
Economy: Poland – still a green island
GDP growth in:
Euro zone: -0.6%
EU27: -0.4%
UK: 0.0%
France: 0.1%
Germany: 0.9%
Czech Rep.: -1.6%
Poland: 2.1%
(Q3 2012 year on year)
Rzeczpospolita, Eurostat
Investment: Poland vs other CEE
RCA
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q1
-Q3
'12
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q1
-Q3
'12
Poland CEE excl. Poland
€ m
illi
on
Office Retail Logistics Hotel
Investment: Volumes
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (f)
EU
R m
illi
on
Offices Retail Logistics Hotels
Savills
5 10 12
12
23
58
94
76
51
25
40
48 36
Investment: Office yields
Savills
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Prime CBD Prime Mokotów Non-prime CBD Non-prime Mokotów
Investment: Prime retail yields
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Warsaw Major regional cities Smaller cities
Savills
Investment: Offices
Crown Square
Zebra Tower
North Gate
BTC
Ujazdowskie 10
Alma
Stratos
Marynarska Point
Focus Park
Postępu
N21
Canal +
Miasteczko Orange
Atrium International
Mokotowska Square
Pałac Młodziejowskich
Green Office Park
Prima Court
Marszałkowska 76
Millenium Park II
Norway House
WFC
Platinium BP
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%
EUR/m²
Yield
Savills
Finalized
Under offer
On the market
Investment: Retail
Wars Sawa Junior
Promenada
Echo Belchatów
Osowa
Twierdza Kłodzko Biedronka
Magnolia Galeria Mokotów
Twierdza Zamość Echo
Pabianice Pestka
Molo
Wzorcownia
Tęcza
Alfa Centrum
Galeria Tarnovia
Złote Tarasy
Manufaktura
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%
EUR/m²
Yield
Savills
Finalized
Under offer
On the market
Warsaw Office: Market performance Q3 2012
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
Core Fringe East LowerSouth
North SouthEast
SouthWest
UpperSouth
West
m²
Stock (m²) Constructed (m²) Vacancy (%)
Savils
Year-on-year change
Warsaw office: Market performance 2012 and beyond
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
70,000
140,000
210,000
280,000
350,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
m2
Net absorption (m²) New supply (m²) Vacancy (%)
Savills
Warsaw office: New supply
Savills
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015
City Centre Non Central
m²
completed under construction building permit planned
Regional cities office: Market performance
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Katowice Kraków Poznań Tricity Łódź Wrocław Szczecin Lublin
m²
Stock (m²) Constructed (m²) Vacancy (%)
Year-on-year change
Savills
Retail: Shopping centres are ageing
– investors’ strategies
LAUNCH Marketing & PR: EXTENSIVE
Renovation: NONE
Efforts to attract retail tenants: EXTENSIVE
Rents: HIGH
Lease term: LONG
GROWTH Marketing & PR: MODERATE
Renovation: MINOR MODIFICATIONS
Efforts to attract retail tenants: MODERATE
Rents: HIGH
Lease term: LONG
MATURITY Marketing & PR: EXTENSIVE
Renovation: MAINTENANCE OF FACILITIES
Efforts to attract retail tenants: MODERATE
Rents: COMPETITIVE
Lease term: MODERATE
DECLINE Marketing & PR: MODERATE & CHAOTIC
Renovation: NEGLECT
OR EXTENSIVE REFORMATTING
Efforts to attract retail tenants: EXTENSIVE
Rents: LOW
Lease term: SHORT
Retail: New projects vs extensions
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
750,000
900,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
m²
New (m²) Extension (m²)
Savills
1
1
2
9
10
8
11 9
9
7
Retail: Shopping centres
Savills
4 RE process:
RE-positioning (eg. Klif Warsaw, Blue
City, Galeria Mokotów)
RE-modelling (eg. Echo Kielce, Wzgórze
Gdynia, Promenada)
RE-commercialization (eg. Złote Tarasy,
Arkadia, Galeria Kazimierz, Manufaktura)
RE-branding (eg. Molo aka Piast
Szczecin, Dom Mody Klif aka Klif)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2005 2012
Generation of shopping centre
I II III IV
57%
46%
29%
31%
35%
39%
10% 17%
23%
Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS?
Selected completed projects
Manufaktura
Łódź
Stary Browar
Poznań
Wzorcownia
Włocławek
Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS?
Selected completed projects
Bonarka
Kraków
Dukat
Olsztyn
Dekada
Żyrardów
Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS?
Selected ongoing projects
Sukcesja
Łódź
Koneser
Warsaw
Art Norblin
Warsaw
Retail: What about REVITALISATIONS?
Selected ongoing projects
Bawełnianka
Bełchatów
Alchemia
Lublin
Hala Koszyki
Warsaw
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Savills Retail Leading Agent
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Savills Retail Leading Agent
SUKCESJA, Łódź - 2011
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Q3 2014
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Q3 2014
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Q3 2014
SUKCESJA, Łódź – Savills Retail Leading Agent
Mixed-use project: shopping & entertainment
centre and hotel;
3.2 ha site;
131,897 m² of usable area;
51,538 m² of GLA;
1,010 parking spaces;
Helios cinema: 9 screens with 2,150 seats;
LPP Group, Pure Jatomi
172 retail units;
160 rooms in business class hotel;
Q3 2014
For more information:
Brian Burgess
Managing Director
T: +48 22 222 4004
Renata Kusznierska
Director, Retail Agency & Property Management
T: +48 22 222 4014
Savills Sp. z o. o.
ul. Złota 59
00-120 Warszawa
T: +48 22 222 4000