Political and Economic Change

I. Political Change Methods

Revolutions• A fundamental change in the political and social

institutions of a society• Often accompanied by violence and civil war• Usually has grass roots popular support• More than just a leadership change• Examples– Industrial Revolution– Bolshevik Revolution– Chinese Revolution– Iranian Revolution– US in 1776?

Reforms

• A significant change to the political or economic system to improve conditions

• Not radical, absent of revolutionary change

Coup d'état

• French translation means blow (stroke) to the state

• Act of overthrowing the existing government, usually done by the military

• May or may not lead to a revolution• Africa; between 1952 and 2000, 33 countries

experienced 85 coups• Unsuccessful attempt in Russia against Boris

Yeltsin

War

• Clausewitz- “Politics by other means.”• Types– Interstate conflicts– Civil War– Guerrilla Warfare

• Examples– Nigerian Biafran Civil War– Iran-Iraq War

Political Change: Trends and Types

Political Liberalization

• Occurs when a nondemocratic system becomes more politically open and less repressive

• Government expands individual rights and freedoms

• Usually takes place with a regime change• Enhances legitimacy• China’s change enhances their legitimacy• Soviet’s Gorbachev led to more destabilization

Democratization• Transformation process

from a non-democracy to a procedural democracy to a substantive democracy

• May be incomplete democratization

• Pace varies• Samuel Huntington

“democratization waves”• Is economic liberalization a

necessary precursor?

Stages of democratization

1. Breakdown of nondemocracy (authoritarianism)

• Democratization from above– CCP in China allowed privatization

• Democratization from below– PRI movement in Mexico to open up politics

2. Establishment of democracy

• Decision stage• Elites develop new institutional framework• Country adopts new constitution• National referendum to adopt new

framework?– Russia

3. Consolidation of democracy

• Democracy very unlikely to fall apart• Would require cataclysmic events to destroy• US during the Great Depression and WWII

democracy stayed strong

When is democracy consolidated?• Free and fair elections are routine• Peaceful transition of power through elections is

routine– 2 turnover rule

• Can survive tests of democracy– US 2000 presidential election

• Adherence to rule of law, peaceful• Legitimacy• Lengthy period of time– UK

Democratic breakdown

• Democracy breaks down, creeping authoritarianism

• Juan Linz 3 stages:– Crisis Stage

• A huge event emerges, Russia & Chechnya– Breakdown stage

• Rules change in the system and freedoms erode, since 1992, 50 journalists have been murdered for their professional activity in Russia

– Reequilibration• Acceptance of new less democratic rules, par for the course

II. Economic Change

• Nationalization– Government takes over existing private

companies, state monopolies– Oil in Mexico and Iran

Privatization• Government

owned enterprises are sold to the public

• Can increase corruption

• Russia 1990s• UK & Thatcherism

in the 1980’s

Economic Liberalization

• Policies to move the country towards free market capitalism

• Removal of price restrictions• Privatization of most industries• Encouragement of foreign direct investment• Reduce regulatory measures, trade barriers,

and government spending• Mexico and NAFTA

Economic Development Statistics• GDP– Gross domestic product– GNP just includes citizens

• GDP per capita– GDP divided by population

• HDI– Human development index– Infant mortality, literacy rates and other quality of life

issues• PPP– Purchasing Power Parity– Takes into account the real cost of living

Gini Index• Measures the

level of income inequality in the countries around the world in a 0-1 scale.

• The lower the number, the more equality

• MDCs (EDCs)- UK

• LDCs- Nigeria• NICs- Mexico• Countries in

transition, former communist states- Russia

• 1st, 2nd, 3rd World countries

Economic Development Strategies• ISI– Import substitution industrialization– Mexico WWII to early 1980s, Latin America– State fosters industrialization, low taxes and food

prices• Structural Adjustment– Stresses integration into the world markets– World Bank forces on highly indebted 3rd world

countries– Privatization– Nigeria

Modernization Theory

• Western model is ideal• Requires education, urbanization, middle

class, human capital investments by government

• Economic development is related cultural changes

• Fosters democratization• China?

Dependency Theory• Developed by Latin American scholars• Explains gap between MDCs & LDCs• Legacy of colonialism• Former colonies are underdeveloped because of the

exploitation and direct control of LDCs• Country stays economically poor and corrupt politically

with authoritarian rule• MDCs strategies:

– Global trade extracts raw materials and wealth– Debt encouraged which prevents social spending– Multinational Corporations– International support of repressive regimes

Globalization

Pros• Interdependence• Removal of trade barriers• Rapid economic growth• Spread of information• Spread of democracy and

human rights• Global Village

Cons

• Erosion of state sovereignty• Environmental degradation• Homogenization of the world,

Americanization• Increased pressure of global

markets• Rising inequality, erosion of

the middle class?• Can lead to violence, civil war,

state disintegration, fragmentation? Opposites?

Whip Around