political attitudes - zois-berlin.de · having unfriended someone because of political disputes....

ZOiS REPORT No. 4 / 2019 · September 2019

YOUTH IN POLAND: OUTLOOK ON LIFE AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES

Félix Krawatzek

ZOiS Report 4 / 2019 Youth in Poland

2

Inhalt

02 ___ Executive summary

04 ___ Introduction06 ___ Living conditions, education, and income06 ___ Religion09 ___ Political interest and engagement09 ______ Political interest and knowledge: young people worlds apart?10 ______ Formal politics: voting behaviour12 ______ Informal politics: protest knowledge and participation12 ______ Political youth organisations: yes in principle13 ___ Learning about politics and accessing the world15 ___ Assessing developments in the country15 ______ Mixed assessments about the country’s direction17 ______ Economic and political concerns 18 ______ Trust in people and institutions19 ___ Poland and the world19 ______ Foreign policy orientation20 ______ Travel experience21 ______ Migration intentions22 ______ Attitudes towards the EU22 ______ Ideas on Europe and Russia22 ___ Values and ideas of community24 ___ Conclusion

25 ___ Imprint

Executive summary

Today’s young people in Central and Eastern Europe are the first cohort with-out direct experience of the socialist system. For those in Poland, the oppor-tunities of the free market, free movement within the European Union (EU), and democratic standards have become the norm. A ZOiS survey conducted in February 2019 provides insights into the political attitudes of young Poles, their political engagement, and their views on and experiences with other countries in the run-up to two important elections: the parliamentary vote on 13 October 2019 and the presidential election due by May 2020 at the latest. The main findings are as follows:

– Although only a little more than one-third of respondents state that they were interested in politics, 75 per cent indicate that they want to participate in the parliamentary election. Of these, around one-third remain undecided about whom to vote for.


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– Young people in Poland are very aware of recent protests: over 90 per cent know of them, and nearly 11 per cent say they had participated in political or social protests over the last twelve months.

– Trust in political and public institutions varies considerably: among the younger generation, trust in the media is particularly low; the parliament and the president received mixed scores, while NGOs, the army, and the po-lice attained the highest trust values.

– Trust in the church is remarkably low. The proportion of young people who self-identify as religious is below that of the general population, however, young people attend church with a similar frequency to the broader popula-tion.

– Social media are the main source young people use to gain political in-formation, with Facebook the most prominent outlet. Social media use is also highly politicised, with nearly one-quarter of Facebook users reporting having unfriended someone because of political disputes.

– Expectations of the government centre on economic issues, but young peo-ple also frequently mention political priorities and maintaining democratic standards as the key concerns for the government.

– With regard to Poland’s foreign policy, young people prioritise a closer rela-tionship with the United States (US), mentioned by one-third of respondents. Young Poles also named other European countries, most prominently Ger-many, the United Kingdom, and Hungary. Taken together, EU countries are nearly as important for the younger generation as the US is.

– Attitudes towards the EU tend to be positive: nearly 80 per cent of respond-ents believed that it was right for Poland to join the EU in 2004. A positive view of the idea of Europe contrasts with starkly negative associations with Russia.

– Young Poles have extensive travel and work experiences in other regions of Poland and other EU countries. Mobility beyond the EU is limited, includ-ing to the US and countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Ukraine and Russia.

– Nearly half of the respondents indicate that they would like to leave their place of residence. In terms of preferred destinations, around one-quarter of respondents mention EU countries, and around 15 per cent say they would like to go to the US.


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Introduction

Today’s young people in Central and Eastern Europe are the first cohort with-out direct experience of the socialist system. For those in Poland, the opportu-nities of the free market, free movement within the EU, and democratic stand-ards have become the norm. Thousands of young Poles regularly take to the streets, not only to demand higher wages and improved working conditions for doctors or teachers, but also to protest against the judicial reforms that the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party undertook in 2017. At the same time, more Polish youth than expected voted for PiS in local elections in 2018.

As Poland prepares for a parliamentary election on 13 October 2019 and a presidential vote by May 2020, what are the political views and preferences of the country’s younger generation? And how do they compare with those of the overall population?

This report presents the results of a ZOiS survey carried out in cooperation with R-Research between 15 and 27 February 2019 among 2,000 respondents across Poland.1 We surveyed people aged 16–34 living in the major urban ar-eas. Respondents came from the following cities, in numbers proportional to the cities’ population sizes FIGURE 1:

1 The author gratefully acknowledges the research assistance provided by Nadja Sieffert.

FIGURE 1Cities included in the survey

Source: ZOiS

Population more than 1 million

Population between 500,000 and 1 million

Population between 250,000 and 500,000

Warsaw

Kraków

Łódź

Wrocław

Poznań

Gdańsk

Szczecin

Bydgoszcz

Lublin

Katowice

Białystok


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– Warsaw, with a population of more than 1 million;

– Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław, with populations of between 500,000 and 1 million; and

– Białystok, Bydgoszcz, Gdańsk, Katowice, Lublin, and Szczecin, with popula-tions of between 250,000 and 500,000.

We extended the survey to young respondents living in cities with between 100,000 and 250,000 inhabitants. In addition to quotas for place of residence, we fixed quotas for gender and age, to mirror the demographic structure of that section of the population. Overall, Poles in the age cohort surveyed here represent a little more than 9 million people, from a total population of 38 million. FIGURE 2

The survey was conducted online, a format that was chosen as it fitted the communication practices of the younger generation, gave respondents control over the process, conveyed greater anonymity than face-to-face in-terviews, and thereby limited social desirability bias — the psychological tendency of interviewees to adjust to the interviewers’ real or perceived expectations.

TABL. 1. LUDNOŚĆ WEDŁUG PŁCI I WIEKU W 2018 R. POPULATION BY SEX AND AGE IN 2018 Stan w dniu 31 XII As of December 31

-Females

0 195290 184215 -1842151 206995 196303 -1963032 197615 187419 -1874193 191319 181179 -1811794 193528 182871 -1828715 190324 180328 -1803286 200535 189349 -1893497 204276 192840 -1928408 213023 201509 -2015099 221987 211519 -211519

10 220780 210449 -21044911 206802 196558 -19655812 196397 186461 -18646113 188860 179735 -17973514 183258 173518 -17351815 179648 170793 -17079316 181515 172223 -17222317 187690 178412 -17841218 192710 183305 -18330519 193705 184992 -18499220 199645 189947 -18994721 207411 198572 -19857222 216008 206346 -20634623 221018 213095 -21309524 234574 227261 -22726125 245044 235860 -23586026 254300 245294 -24529427 270026 259623 -25962328 275922 266102 -26610229 278093 268554 -26855430 285856 277692 -27769231 291849 282270 -28227032 303478 295594 -29559433 321163 312688 -31268834 331321 322150 -32215035 340075 332634 -33263436 330222 321133 -32113337 314977 308200 -30820038 320126 313897 -31389739 318835 310642 -31064240 308815 302257 -30225741 306138 299478 -29947842 306145 300988 -30098843 295234 290500 -29050044 284620 279382 -27938245 272145 268892 -26889246 261674 258682 -258682

Age Males Females

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Population by sex and age in 2018

Males Females

TABL. 1. LUDNOŚĆ WEDŁUG PŁCI I WIEKU W 2018 R. POPULATION BY SEX AND AGE IN 2018 Stan w dniu 31 XII As of December 31

-Females

0 195290 184215 -1842151 206995 196303 -1963032 197615 187419 -1874193 191319 181179 -1811794 193528 182871 -1828715 190324 180328 -1803286 200535 189349 -1893497 204276 192840 -1928408 213023 201509 -2015099 221987 211519 -211519

10 220780 210449 -21044911 206802 196558 -19655812 196397 186461 -18646113 188860 179735 -17973514 183258 173518 -17351815 179648 170793 -17079316 181515 172223 -17222317 187690 178412 -17841218 192710 183305 -18330519 193705 184992 -18499220 199645 189947 -18994721 207411 198572 -19857222 216008 206346 -20634623 221018 213095 -21309524 234574 227261 -22726125 245044 235860 -23586026 254300 245294 -24529427 270026 259623 -25962328 275922 266102 -26610229 278093 268554 -26855430 285856 277692 -27769231 291849 282270 -28227032 303478 295594 -29559433 321163 312688 -31268834 331321 322150 -32215035 340075 332634 -33263436 330222 321133 -32113337 314977 308200 -30820038 320126 313897 -31389739 318835 310642 -31064240 308815 302257 -30225741 306138 299478 -29947842 306145 300988 -30098843 295234 290500 -29050044 284620 279382 -27938245 272145 268892 -26889246 261674 258682 -258682

Age Males Females

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Population by sex and age in 2018

Males Females

FIGURE 2Population by sex and age in 2018

Source: ZOiS

Female

Male

90

60

30

70

40

10

0

80

50

20


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Living conditions, education, and income

Roughly one-third of respondents indicated that they were single. The re-mainder was split between those who were married — around one-quarter — and those who were cohabiting — 40 per cent. Older respondents and those with children were more likely to live with a partner. Around one-third of the sample had children, primarily those older than 25 and those who were religious. Respondents with children also tended to have a lower level of education.

Asked about their professional activities in the week before the survey, around 60 per cent of respondents indicated that they were working full time. Five per cent stated that they were unemployed, a figure that cor-responds to the country-wide unemployment rate but is below the official youth unemployment rate (for those under 28) of 10 per cent.2 Unemploy-ment was higher among younger male respondents.

Fourteen per cent of those questioned were studying, and 7 per cent said they looked after their family. FIGURE 3 Forty-four per cent of the sample had completed higher education, and around 37 per cent had finished sec-ondary education. FIGURE 4 The better educated attended church more frequently, were more likely to live in Warsaw, and were less likely to have children.

A little more than half of the young people described the material position of their household as one in which they could afford at least household ap-pliances. Yet nearly 28 per cent stated they had enough money for clothing and shoes but not enough to buy a large household appliance. On a seven-point scale of the economic self-perception, with one being the lowest value, the average value was 4.59. FIGURE 5 Younger Poles, those who still lived with their parents, those who lived in larger cities, and the better educated had the highest perceptions of the financial situation of their households.

Religion

Religion has increasingly become a widely discussed dividing factor in Polish society and politics, and the debate has gained in intensity since early 2019. In late 2018, the critical film Clergy by the director Wojciech Smarzowski had huge success across the country. But the momentary cul-mination of the debate was the release of the film Tell No One on YouTube only in May 2019. The documentary about child sexual abuse in the Catholic Church in Poland was viewed by more than 11 million within three days of its release, leading to controversial discussions about the issue.

Such controversies have left a visible imprint on what young people make of the church, and this issue is of particular political importance in Poland. There is close proximity between representatives of the church and local politicians from the governing PiS party and, more broadly, an alliance

2 ‘Poland Youth Unemployment Rate’, Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/youth-unemployment-rate.

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/youth-unemployment-rate

https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/youth-unemployment-rate


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EmploymentinthelastweekNotinpaidworkforanotherreason 2.7%Lookingafterthehomeorfamily 7.5%Long-termsickordisabled 0.8%Fulltimestudent 13.9%Unemployedandlookingforwork 4.9%Workingparttime 10.5%Workingfulltime 59.8%

2.7%

7.5%

0.8%

13.9%

4.9%

10.5%

59.8%

Not in paid work for another reason

Looking after the home or family

Long-term sick or disabled

Full time student

Unemployed and looking for work

Working part time

Working full time

Employment status

Employment in the last week Quelle: ZOiS n=1,871

Quelle: ZOiS

Education(PL)

n=2002Primaryandincompletesecondary12.7%Completesecondary 37.4%Incompletehigher 5.9%Completehigher 44.0%

12.7%

37.4%

5.9%

44.0%

Primary and incomplete secondary

Complete secondary

Incomplete higher

Complete higher

Education

n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,002

Quelle: ZOiS n=1,871 Quelle: ZOiS

7.1%

14.7%

33.1%

27.9%

10.1%

6.4%

0.6%

We experience no material difficulties, if needed we could acquire an apartment or

house

There is enough money for a new car, but we cannot permit ourselves to buy an apartment

or house

There is enough money for household appliances, but we cannot buy a new car

There is enough money for clothing and shoes, but not enough to buy a large

household appliance

There is enough money for food, but not enough to buy clothing and shoes

We have enough money only for the most necessary things

There is not enough money even for food

Self-reported household wealth

Datenreihe1

Quelle: n=1,855

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 3Employment status (as of last week)

FIGURE 4Education

FIGURE 5Self-reported household wealth

Source: ZOiS

Source: ZOiS

Source: ZOiS

n = 1,871

n = 2,002

n = 1,855

Thereisnot

Weexperiencenomaterialdifficulties,ifneededwe 7.1%Thereisenoughmoneyforanewcar,butwecannotpermitourselvestobuyanapartmentorhouse 14.7%Thereisenoughmoneyforhouseholdappliances,butwecannotbuyanewcar 33.1%Thereisenoughmoneyforclothingandshoes,butnotenoughtobuyalargehouseholdappliance 27.9%Thereisenoughmoneyforfood,butnotenoughtobuyclothingandshoes 10.1%

7.1%

14.7%

33.1%

27.9%

10.1%

6.4%

0.6%

We experience no material difficulties, if needed we could acquire an

apartment or house

There is enough money for a new car, but we cannot permit ourselves

to buy an apartment or house

There is enough money for household appliances, but we cannot buy a new car

There is enough money for clothing and shoes, but not enough to

buy a large household appliance

There is enough money for food, but not enough to buy clothing and shoes

We have enough money only for the most necessary things

There is not enough money even for food

Self-reported household wealth


8

between the Catholic Church and those holding the country’s political pow-er. Meanwhile, the Polish church is also a politicised actor that is actively involved in political and societal debates, for example through the radio station Radio Maryja.

A little over 70 per cent of the survey respondents indicated that they were Roman Catholic, and around 20 per cent said they followed no religion. Of Poles in general, 88 per cent declared an affiliation with the Catholic Church according to the 2017 European Values Study, showing that the level of self-declared church affiliation is lower among young Poles than in the overall population.3

Beyond whether people self-identify as religious, an important question is what that religious identity means for young people. We therefore asked those respondents who indicated a religious affiliation how frequently they visited their respective places of worship. FIGURE 6 The data show a note-worthy split among the young generation between those who visit church once a week or more (37 per cent) and those who worship on important holi-days, if at all (51 per cent). By comparison, around 37 per cent of Poland’s overall population usually attends weekly mass,4 suggesting little variation across the generations. Therefore, despite the fact that fewer young people self-identify as Catholic than in the wider population, this does not trans-late into a difference in regularity of worship.

Our data also point to a further distinction by age. The youngest respond-ents — those up to around 25 years of age — tend to go to church more fre-quently, which might in part reflect the fact that they are more likely to live with their parents and attend church with them.

3 EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090

4 ‘Poland: Church Statistics for 2016’, Zenit, 4 January 2018, https://zenit.org/articles/poland-church-statistics-for-2016/.

Frequencyofreligiouspractice Vorschlag:Howoftendoyouvisityourplaceofworship?n=1431

Fewtimesaweek 3.4%Onceaweek 33.8%Onceamonth 11.5%Onlyforimportantreligiousholidays36.3%Neveroralmostnever14.9%

3.4%

33.8%

11.5%

36.3%

14.9%

Few times a week

Once a week

Once a month

Only for important religious holidays

Never or almost never

How often do you visit your place of worship?

n=1431 Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,431

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 6How often do you visit your place of worship?

Source: ZOiSn = 1,431

https://zenit.org/articles/poland-church-statistics-for-2016/

https://zenit.org/articles/poland-church-statistics-for-2016/


9

Political interest and engagement

Political interest and knowledge: young people worlds apart?

Asked whether they were interested in politics, a little more than one-third of the survey respondents stated that they were, with the remaining two-thirds saying either that they had no interest or that they did not know.5

FIGURE 7 Of those interested in politics or undecided, the vast majority ex-pressed an interest in both international and domestic politics (72 per cent); around 19 per cent were primarily interested in the latter and 9 per cent in the former.

Young people tend to discuss politics slightly more often with family mem-bers than with friends or colleagues: 22 per cent said they did so often with family members, whereas 18 per cent said the same for friends and col-leagues. FIGURE 8 Among the latter, there is, however, more political disa-greement. FIGURE 9 Around two-thirds stated that they sometimes or often disagreed with friends and colleagues, and 56 per cent with members of their family. This suggests there is room for political disagreement not only in the public but also in the private realm. Older Poles and those with high-er household incomes are more involved in political discussions and have more disagreements. A high frequency of political discussions correlates with a significantly higher knowledge of protests.

Our survey included a set of picture quizzes and factual questions aimed at understanding the political and historical knowledge of the younger gen-eration. Respondents could acquire a total of ten points, which only 1.3 per

5 This value is below the 45 per cent of the general population who stated they were at least somewhat interested, according to the 2017 European Values Study, EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090

InterestinPoliticsn=1999

Yes 36.37%No 32.17%Undecided 31.50%

36.4%

32.2%

31.5%

Yes

No

Undecided

Are you interested in politics?

n=1999 Quelle:

n=1,999

QuQuelle: Quelle: ZOiS

18.0%

22.5%

10.2%

14.3%

41.6%

27.7%

15.2%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never

When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree?

With friends and colleagues n=1,260

Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 7Are you interested in politics?

Source: ZOiS

WithfriendsandcolleaguesWithparentsandfamilyOften 17.9% 22.1% Sometimes 50.3% 44.2%Rarely 26.7% 26.4%(Almost)Never 4.9% 7.3%

1350

17.9%

50.3%

26.7%

4.9%

22.1%

44.2%

26.4%

7.3%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never

Frequency of political discussions

With friends and colleagues Quelle:

ZOiS

n=1,350 Quelle:

ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

WithfriendsandcolleaguesWithparentsandfamilyOften 18.0% 14.3% Whenyoudiscusspolitics,howoftendoyoudisagreeSometimes 50.6% 41.6%Rarely 22.5% 27.7%(Almost)Never 10.2% 15.2%Total 1260

18.0%

50.6%

22.5%

10.2%

14.3%

41.6%

27.7%

15.2%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never



ZOiS n=1,260 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

17.9%

50.3%

26.7%

4.9%

22.1%

44.2%

26.4%

7.3%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never



n=1,350 Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 8Frequency of political discussions

FIGURE 9When you discuss politics, how often do you disagree?

Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS

With friends and colleagues With parents and family With friends and colleagues With parents and family

WithfriendsandcolleaguesWithparentsandfamilyOften 18.0% 14.3% Whenyoudiscusspolitics,howoftendoyoudisagreeSometimes 50.6% 41.6%Rarely 22.5% 27.7%(Almost)Never 10.2% 15.2%Total 1260

18.0%

50.6%

22.5%

10.2%

14.3%

41.6%

27.7%

15.2%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never



ZOiS n=1,260 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

17.9%

50.3%

26.7%

4.9%

22.1%

44.2%

26.4%

7.3%

Often

Sometimes

Rarely

(Almost) Never



n=1,350 Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS

n = 1,350 n = 1,260

n = 1,999


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cent of them managed to do. Nearly half of the respondents scored five or six points. While almost all could correctly identify German chancellor Angela Merkel and US president Donald Trump, fewer than half recognised Poland’s deputy prime minister Beata Szydło and less than one-quarter could iden-tify Ukraine’s then president Petro Poroshenko.

Around half of those surveyed correctly said the EU comprised 28 coun-tries, whereas one-quarter thought the EU was smaller than it is. Women’s quiz scores were significantly higher than men’s; education and household income also positively correlated with political and historical knowledge.

Formal politics: voting behaviour

The Polish local elections in October and November 2018 made headlines. The governing PiS party increased its support by 7 percentage points compared with the 2014 elections to 34 per cent, due in part to the support of young voters. In our sample, 64.5 per cent stated that they had voted in the local elections, markedly above the record high turnout of 55 per cent for the first round of the elections among the general population. Of those respondents who did not vote, when asked why not, around a quarter said nobody repre-sented their political beliefs. Slightly less that they did not care, and around 16 per cent believed their vote would not make a difference or cited problems with registration, usually due to having recently moved. FIGURE 10

In October 2019, both houses of parliament, the Sejm and the Senate, will have to be re-elected. Asked in February 2019 whether they would vote in those elections, 75 per cent of young people confirmed their intention to

Reasonfornotvotinginlocalelections2018(PL2019)

n=570Abstentionasdisapproval7.4%Didnotcare 21.6%Nobodyrepresentedmypoliticalbeliefs24.9%Wouldnotmakeadifference16.3%Registrationissues 16.5%Illness 4.0%Nocitizenship 1.9%Abroad 7.2%Other 0.2%

7.4%

21.6%

24.9%

16.3%

16.5%

4.0%

1.9%

7.2%

0.2%

Abstention as disapproval

Did not care

Nobody represented my political beliefs

Would not make a difference

Registration issues

Illness

No citizenship

Abroad

Other

Reason for not voting in local elections 2018

n=570 Quelle: ZOiS

n=570

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 10Reason for not voting in local elections 2018

Source: ZOiSn = 570


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participate, while 20 per cent were undecided. The May 2019 European Par-liament elections have been discussed as potentially providing an indica-tion of the direction the Polish electorate might take in the parliamentary election. The European elections saw a noteworthy rise in turnout, from 24 per cent in 2014 to 46 per cent in 2019. Support for former prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński’s conservative PiS increased the party’s vote share to 45.4 per cent, a greater increase than expected in the polls. The oppositional European Coalition, a newly established alliance of five opposition parties including the liberal-conservative Civic Platform (PO), the Polish People’s Party, and .Modern, came second with 38.5 per cent.

Our survey was undertaken in February, and while voting intentions at the start of the year cannot predict actual turnout in a parliamentary election in the autumn, the picture of voting intentions is nevertheless remarkable.

FIGURE 11 Around one-third of respondents were undecided about whom to vote for, followed by a very narrow divide between PO and PiS. Ten per cent opted for the movement Kukiz’15, which is led by rock musician Paweł Kukiz and specifically targets young people. This is slightly higher than the scores Kukiz’15 has attained in population-wide election forecasts. The sup-port for both PO and PiS, by contrast, is significantly lower among young people than in the broader population, where PiS scored around 40 per cent and PO about 25 per cent at the time of the survey.

Fifteen per cent in our sample said they would vote for ‘other parties’, which are likely to include the social-democratic Wiosna, founded at the time of the survey and potentially appealing to young people. Led by the former mayor of Słupsk and LGBT activist Robert Biedroń, the party won three seats in May’s European Parliament elections. The voting intentions of young Poles,

n=1393Undecided 30.4% Intendedvotechoiceinparliamentaryelections2018CivicPlatformPO 15.8%Other 15.3%LawandJusticePiS 14.4%Kukiz'15 10.3%Wolnosc 8.2%.Modern 2.0%LeftTogether 1.4%DemocraticLeftAllianceSLD1.2%PolishPeople'sPartyPSL1.1%

30.4%

15.8%

15.3%

14.4%

10.3%

8.2%

2.0%

1.4%

1.2%

1.1%

Undecided

Civic Platform PO

Other

Law and Justice PiS

Kukiz' 15

Wolnosc

.Modern

Left Together

Democratic Left Alliance SLD

Polish People's Party PSL

Intended vote choice in parliamentary elections 2018

n=1393 Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,393Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 11Intended vote choice in parliamentary elections 2019

Source: ZOiS

Support for PO and PiS is lower among young people.

n = 1,393


12

certainly in spring 2019, seemed more dispersed than those of the general population and are likely to shift significantly until election day.

Informal politics: protest knowledge and participation

A further set of questions evaluated young people’s views on protests. For-ty-eight per cent of the respondents considered protests a legitimate form of political engagement. Moreover, a remarkable 92 per cent knew about protests that had taken place in the country. Asked what kind of protests these were, respondents gave very diverse answers. These included strikes and protests relating to working conditions and salaries in the education and healthcare sectors, demonstrations over an abortion ban proposed in March 2018, and protests against judicial reforms.

Of those who knew about the protests, nearly 11 per cent said they had participated in political and / or social protests. FIGURE 12 Eighty per cent of those had participated in protests in their hometowns, most frequently Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, or Gdańsk, but also in the smaller cities with populations of less than 250,000. Those who had participated in protests in other cities than their place of residence primarily went to Warsaw.

A little less than 6 per cent of those who knew about the protests had par-ticipated in environmental demonstrations. Of those, 70 per cent said the protests had taken place in their hometowns. The remaining 30 per cent went to other cities, again primarily Warsaw, to participate.

Political youth organisations: yes in principle

Organisations specifically aimed at mobilising young people have been a critical component of youth politics across some Central and Eastern Eu-ropean countries. In Poland, 87 per cent of young people think that youth should join specific political youth organisations to make their voices heard. Moreover, 52 per cent said that the government should seek to involve young people in official youth organisations. FIGURE 13 These two values may be surprisingly high given the low actual membership in youth organisations.

Asked whether they were members of such organisations, only 5.4 per cent affirmed that they were actively involved. The organisations young people are involved in are diverse, most of them being local associations of differ-ent sizes. They range from the UNESCO Initiatives Centre in Wrocław, aimed at the education of young people with graduates and postgraduates acting as trainers, to the Polish Youth Projects Association – EYCA or the Polish scouts.

We also asked respondents whether they would consider joining a youth organisation in the future. Nine per cent said they would, and 46 per cent would not; 45 per cent were undecided. So despite believing that it is impor-tant for young people to get involved, almost half do not want to do so them-selves. Those few respondents who did consider joining an organisation lacked a clear profile, with interest expressed for the Polish student sports association, the UNESCO centre in Wrocław, the Polish scouts, and various other smaller bodies. The idea of youth engagement through specific organ-isations thus remains an abstract ideal, not an actual desired practice.

Yes No TotalPolitical&social(n=1,785)10.92% 89.08% 1785Enviromental(n=1,783)5.72% 94.28% 1783

10.9%

89.1%

5.7%

94.3%

Yes

No

Participation in protest

Political & social

QuQuelle: Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 12Participation in protest

FIGURE 13Should the government get young people into official youth organisations?

Source: ZOiS

Source: ZOiS

Political & social (n = 1,785)

Enviromental (n = 1,783)

Yes

No

Undecided

Shouldthegovernmentgetyoungpeopleintoofficialyouthorganisations?

Yes No Undecided BittedieFarbenanpassenn=1,977 18.6% 29.7% 51.6%

18%

30% 52%

Should the government get young people into official youth

organiations?

Yes No Undecided

Quelle:

n=1,977n = 1,977


13

Learning about politics and accessing the world

A key resource for young people to make up their political minds is the me-dia, and our data confirm the importance of online media. FIGURE 14 Fa-cebook was the most important primary and secondary source of political information for the younger generation. Within the age cohort surveyed, younger respondents were more likely to use Facebook as their main source.

Beyond that, media use by young Poles was varied. Polish national and re-gional TV and radio remained important, as do specific web portals such as www.onet.pl, www.wp.pl, and www.gazeta.pl. In our sample, more con-ventional media tended to be used more by male respondents as well as those who were more religious and expressed higher trust in the president. Among other Internet platforms, YouTube and, to a lesser extent, Twitter were the primary sources of information.

Firstchoice(n=1,870)Secondchoice(n=1,793)PolishTV 14.7% 13.6%PolishRadio 2.5% 3.8%Regional/localTVandradio 5.9% 10.9%Newspapersandmagazines 2.7% 3.7%Facebook 24.3% 16.6%Twitter 4.8% 3.0%YouTube 7.2% 8.4%Othersocialnetworks 3.2% 4.0%ONET(onet.pl) 9.2% 9.2%WirtualnaPolska(wp.pl) 9.4% 9.7%GAZETA(gazeta.pl) 2.8% 3.9%

BBC 1.1% 1.9%CNN 0.7% 1.0%DeutscheWelle 0.2% 0.2%Otherwebsources 10.9% 9.6%Google 1.7% 1.3%tvn.pl 1.6% 1.3%interia.pl 1.2% 1.3%wykop.pl 1.4% 0.7%reddit.com 0.3% 0.5%trojmiasto.pl 0.1% 0.4%Otherwebsources 4.6% 4.1%Family&friends 0.3% 0.5%

1870 1793

14.7%

2.5%

5.9%

2.7%

24.3%

4.8%

7.2%

3.2%

9.2%

9.4%

2.8%

1.1%

0.7%

0.2%

10.9%

13.6%

3.8%

10.9%

3.7%

16.6%

3.0%

8.4%

4.0%

9.2%

9.7%

3.9%

1.9%

1.0%

0.2%

9.6%

Polish TV

Polish Radio

Regional/local TV and radio

Newspapers and magazines

Facebook

Twitter

YouTube

Other social networks

ONET (onet.pl)

Wirtualna Polska (wp.pl)

GAZETA (gazeta.pl)

BBC

CNN

Deutsche Welle

Other web sources

Main source of information

First choice (n=1,870)

Second choice (n=1,793) Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 14Main source of information

Source: ZOiS

First choice (n = 1,870)

Second choice (n = 1,793)

Facebook is the most important source of political information.


14

Although Polish media usage remains somewhat diverse compared with that in some other countries in Eastern and Central Europe, such as Hun-gary, the current conservative government has received strong criticism from Reporters Without Borders. The media watchdog maintained in 2018 that ‘public media . . . have been transformed into government propaganda mouthpieces’.6 It is likely that the polarised structure and often antagonistic tone of Polish media outlets relates to the low trust scores the media receive from young people (see section on trust below).

The most prominent social media site in Poland is Facebook. In particular among younger users, Instagram is then of increasing importance: those un-der 25 are more than 20 per cent more likely to use the platform. FIGURE 15 In terms of usage, it is clear that the daily practice of young people on those platforms is quite politicised. Asked whether they had excluded or unfriended someone because of political disputes, nearly 25 per cent of those who used Facebook said they had done so. FIGURE 16 Young people actively use social media for political discussions and judgements.

6 ‘Poland’, Reporters Without Borders, https://rsf.org/en/poland.

UnfriendedsomeoneBeingunfriendedTwitter 91 41Instagram 114 60Facebook 431 224 Vorschlag:Haveyouunfriendedsomeonebecauseofpoliticaldisputes?

91

114

431

41

60

224

Twitter

Instagram

5Facebook

Have you ever unfriended someone beacuse of political disputes?

Being unfriended Unfriended someone Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

Facebook 1,765Instagram 1,025Twitter 377None 20LiveJournal 16

1,765

1,025

377

20

Facebook

Instagram

Twitter

None

Social media use

Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 16Have you unfriended someone because of political disputes?

FIGURE 15Social media use

Source: ZOiSSource: ZOiS

Unfriended someone

Being unfriended

https://rsf.org/en/poland


15

Assessing developments in the country

Mixed assessments about the country’s direction

One way of assessing what respondents make of their country’s political, social, and economic development is to ask whether the country is develop-ing in the right direction overall. Faced with that question, 37 per cent of the young Poles surveyed thought this was the case; but a majority was either undecided (30 per cent) or did not believe that Poland’s development was going in the right direction (33 per cent). FIGURE 17 Young Poles are clearly less optimistic than the overall population and tend to be much more unde-cided on that question. According to 2018 Eurobarometer data, 51 per cent of the Polish population thought their country was developing in the right direction, compared with 37 per cent who thought it was not.

Nevertheless, asked whether things generally had got better or worse over the last decade, 62 per cent of young Poles affirmed that life had improved, while 24 per cent stated the opposite. When respondents were asked more specifically about developments for young people, the picture looked less positive. FIGURE 18 Around 51 per cent believed things had improved, while nearly one-third felt they had worsened.

Young Poles are less optimistic than the overall population.

Do you think that overall Poland is developing in the right direction?

Yes 37.25%No 32.93%Uncertain 29.81%

n=1989

37.3%

32.9%

29.8%

Yes

No

Uncertain

Do you think that overall Poland is developing in the right direction?

Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,989

Foryoungpeople(n=1,804)Fortheaverageperson(n=1,817)Better 50.70% 61.70%Stayedthesame 19.30% 14.20%Worse 30% 24.10%

1 1

Vorschlag:Inyouropinion,havethingsgenereallygotbetterorworse?

50.7%

19.3%

30.0%

61.7%

14.2%

24.1%

Better

Stayed the same

Worse

In your opinion, have things generally got better or worse?

For young people (n=1,804) For the average person (n=1,817) Quelle:

ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 17Do you think that overall Poland is developing in the right direction?

FIGURE 18In your opinion, have things generally got better or worse?

Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiS

For young people (n = 1,804)

For the average person (n = 1,817)n = 1,989


16

To probe these results, we asked those who gave a pessimistic view to spell out their assessments in more detail. Presented with five options, respond-ents said that their financial situation, life chances, and quality of life had deteriorated. Being less respected in society, and by politicians specifically, was cited less often but was still relevant. FIGURE 19

A further perspective on how young people assess their lives was obtained by enquiring how they benchmark their experience against other periods. We asked the following question: ‘Some adults and older people think that life was better in the past. In your opinion, in which era was it best to be a young person like you in Poland?’ FIGURE 20 Although 68 per cent said the best period was the current one, referring to the time since the country’s 2004 accession to the EU, over one-fifth identified the period between 1989 and 2004 as the best. Little nostalgia exists, however, for the communist era.

For most, now is the best period to be a young person.

n=2002UndecidedBeforeWorldWarII3.7%AfterWorldWarII,butbeforethe1980s1.2%Before1989duringthe1980s,theSolidaritymovement4.8%Afterthebreakdownofcommunism,butbeforeEUaccession22.4%Now,sinceEUaccession67.8%

3.7%

1.2%

4.8%

22.4%

67.8%

Before World War II

After World War II, but before the 1980s

Before 1989 during the 1980s, the Solidarity movement

After the breakdown of communism, but before EU accession

Now, since EU accession

Best era to be a young person

n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,002

Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

Qualityoflife 336Yes Personallyrespectedinsociety145

Personallyrespectedbypoliticians245Lifechances 327FinancialSituation 374

336

145

245

327

374

Quality of life

Personally respected in society

Personally respected by politicians

Life chances

Financial Situation

Specific ways in which things got worse

Yes Quelle: ZOiS

n=541

Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 20Best era to be a young person

FIGURE 19Specific ways in which things got worse

Source: ZOiS

Source: ZOiS

n = 2,002


17

Economic and political concerns

Asked what should be the priorities of the government, Polish youth over-whelmingly rated the improvement of living standards as the top prior-ity. FIGURE 21 Despite the continuous rise of economic indicators of living standards in the country (overall unemployment, for instance, is at 6 per cent, the lowest in the last three decades), socio-economic concerns remain the foremost priority for the young generation. This concern might convey fears that young people’s economic future looks less promising than those of their parents or their peers abroad.

Apart from this economic priority, respondents said the government should focus on democratic aspirations, including responsibilities to ensure that everybody in society has the same chances to succeed and to protect demo-cratic principles and basic personal security. These more overtly political points raise the question of whether the results convey a sense of resistance among young people in Poland to perceived democratic backsliding. These results also point to young people’s fears about the future of their basic per-sonal security.

FirstChoice SecondchoiceStrongleadershipinsidePoland2.9% 4.3% Whatdoyouexpectfromthoseingovernment?Strongleadershipvis-à-visothercountries4.7% 6.9%Protectingmybasicsecurity9.8% 19.3%Guaranteeingequalityofchancesforeveryoneinthecountry20.3% 17.5%Improvementofmylivingstandards35.7% 14.7%Anti-corruptionreforms2.7% 6.4%Structuraleconomicreforms8.1% 10.3%Tomaintainthestatusquo0.7% 1.0%Protectingdemocraticprinciples7.9% 10.3%Nothinginparticular 3.3% 1.4%

2002 2002

2.9%

4.7%

9.8%

20.3%

35.7%

2.7%

8.1%

0.7%

7.9%

3.3%

4.3%

6.9%

19.3%

17.5%

14.7%

6.4%

10.3%

1.0%

10.3%

1.4%

Strong leadership inside Poland

Strong leadership vis-à-vis other countries

Protecting my basic security

Guaranteeing equality of chances for everyone in the country

Improvement of my living standards

Anti-corruption reforms

Structural economic reforms

To maintain the status quo

Protecting democratic principles

Nothing in particular

What do you expect from those in government?

First Choice

Second choice Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,002Quelle: ZOiS

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 21What do you expect from those in government?

Source: ZOiS

First choice

Second choice

n = 2,002


18

Trust in people and institutions

Which institutions do young Poles trust? FIGURE 22 The army achieved high values, being (‘fully’ or ‘rather’) trusted by 80 per cent of respondents, similar to trust scores in Western European countries. The army may score highly because it is seen as an actor that is independent of everyday politi-cal struggles, unites the country with its mission to protect, and tends to be visible in commemorative marches and festivities across the country.

The Polish police and NGOs also gained very high trust scores: both were ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 60 per cent of respondents. For the lat-ter, a tendency to perceive NGOs as apolitical and involved in social and humanitarian causes might be appealing to youth.

The media were viewed very negatively, being ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 30 per cent of those questioned. The polarisation of Poland’s media and its at times aggressive language, such as around the killing of Paweł Adamowicz, Gdańsk’s mayor, earlier in 2019, certainly feed into these as-sessments.

The very negative evaluation of the church stands out and relates to ongoing criticism of the church in relation to unaddressed issues of sexual abuse. In 2017 the church was trusted ‘quite a lot’ by more than 55 per cent of the gen-eral Polish population;7 in February 2019, only 29 per cent of Polish youth ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted the church.

7 EVS (2018): European Values Study 2017: Integrated Dataset (EVS 2017). GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA7500 Data file Version 1.0.0, doi:10.4232/1.13090

Fullytrust Rathertrust Ratherdonottrust DonottrustatallnNGOs(n=1,774) 8.9% 54.1% 28.6% 8.4% 1Church(n=1,826) 7.0% 25.6% 26.3% 41.1% 1Media(n=1,849) 2.9% 26.8% 41.9% 28.3% 1Army(n=1,868) 22.3% 57.5% 13.3% 6.8% 1Police(n=1,880) 7.1% 51.4% 27.7% 13.8% 1

8.9% 7.0%

2.9%

22.3%

7.1%

54.1%

25.6% 26.8%

57.5%

51.4%

28.6% 26.3%

41.9%

13.3%

27.7%

8.4%

41.1%

28.3%

6.8%

13.8%

NGOs (n=1,774) Church (n=1,826) Media (n=1,849) Army (n=1,868) Police (n=1,880)

To what extent do you trust…

FIGURE 22To what extent do you trust…

Fully trust

Rather trust

Rather do not trust

Do not trust at all

Source: ZOiS

Trust in the parliament is very low among young people.


19

As for Poland’s main political institutions, trust in the parliament was very low among young people, and views of the president were mixed at best.

FIGURE 23 The parliament was ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by slightly more than 20 per cent of young people — a value that is similar to that for the general Polish population if compared with data from the 2017 European Values Study. The president was ‘fully’ or ‘rather’ trusted by around 40 per cent of the young people surveyed.

Whether this critical attitude towards political institutions should be un-derstood as healthy scepticism of the current state of these institutions and their representatives or as more worrisome doubts about the value of demo-cratic deliberation and a response to the country’s political polarisation is hard to determine.

Poland and the world

Foreign policy orientation

The survey asked respondents which country Poland should have closer rela-tions with. The US was by far the most frequently mentioned country, cited by about a third of respondents, followed by Germany, at 12 per cent. FIGURE 24 Taken together, all EU countries accounted for another third of the responses. Nearly 8 per cent chose Russia, despite the hostility characterising the politi-cal and public discourse between the two countries. Only 4 per cent of the respondents mentioned China, a relatively low figure given the country’s om-nipresent economic influence across Eastern and Central Europe.

FIGURE 24Poland should develop closer rela-tions with…

Polandshoulddevelopcloserrelationswith…(PL2019)

n 1270Ukraine 0.7% USA 33.6%Italy 0.9% Germany 12.0%Netherlands 1.1% Russia 7.7%Sweden 1.3% GreatBritain 6.4%Spain 1.6% Hungary 5.4%France 1.6% Norway 4.9%Switzerland 1.7% China 4.0%Australia 2.0% Japan 3.3%Canada 2.1% CzechRepublic 2.5%CzechRepublic 2.5% Canada 2.1%Japan 3.3% Australia 2.0%China 4.0% Switzerland 1.7%Norway 4.9% France 1.6%Hungary 5.4% Spain 1.6%GreatBritain 6.4% Sweden 1.3%Russia 7.7% Netherlands 1.1%Germany 12.0% Italy 0.9%USA 33.6% Ukraine 0.7%

ImTextinProzent?!

33.6%

12.0%

7.7%

6.4%

5.4%

4.9%

4.0%

3.3%

2.5%

2.1%

2.0%

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.3%

1.1%

0.9%

0.7%

USA

Germany

Russia

Great Britain

Hungary

Norway

China

Japan

Czech Republic

Canada

Australia

Switzerland

France

Spain

Sweden

Netherlands

Italy

Ukraine

Poland should develop closer relations with...

Datenreihe1 Quell

n=1270

Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 23To what extent do you trust…

Fully trust

Rather trust

Rather do not trust

Do not trust at all

Trustinpoliticalinstitutions

Fullytrust RathertrustParliamentFrequ 45 345Parliament(n=1,815) 2.5% 19.0%PresidentFrequ 164 642President(n=1,847) 8.9% 34.8%

2.5%

8.9%

19.0%

34.8%

41.0%

31.1%

37.5%

25.3%

Parliament (n= 1,815) President (n=1,847)

To what extent do you trust…

Fully trust Rather trust Rather do not trust Do not trust all

Quelle:ZOiS

8.9%

54.1%

28.6%

NGOs (n=1,774)

Source: ZOiS

Source: ZOiSn = 1,270


20

Travel experience

Mobility within Poland is high. Eighty-seven per cent of the respondents stat-ed that they had visited regions or cities in Poland other than their hometown in the past twelve months. When it comes to international mobility, the pic-ture looks slightly different. Sixty per cent had travelled outside Poland over the last year. Nearly half of those with travel experience had been to other EU countries, by far the most common international travel destination. Only a small group of people had visited other countries: 3 per cent had been to the US, and similar numbers had gone to countries of the former Soviet Union other than Russia and Ukraine, and to Asia. Ukraine had been visited by 3.8 per cent of the respondents, and Russia by only 1 per cent.

By far the most frequently mentioned reason for travelling abroad was tourism (70 per cent). The second-commonest reason was work (13 per cent). Visiting friends or family was mentioned by 15 per cent of the respondents.

FIGURE 25

Among those who travelled within or beyond Poland for work, the largest number of respondents (38 per cent) had gone to other EU countries. A much smaller number had been to countries of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine the most frequently chosen (4 per cent). Seventy-eight per cent of Polish youth had relatives in other regions of Poland, and a similarly high number had relatives in the EU, reflecting Poles’ overall high mobility for work and study. One-third of the respondents had family in the US. A much smaller share mentioned relatives in countries of the former Soviet Union. FIGURE 26 Nearly 80 per cent of these relatives left Poland after the country’s

Purposeoftravel(PL2019)

n=1170Other 1.8%Studying 1.2%Visitingfriends 5.0%Visitingfamily 10.0%Work 12.5%Tourism 69.6%

1.8%

1.2%

5.0%

10.0%

12.5%

69.6%

Other

Studying

Visiting friends

Visiting family

Work

Tourism

Purpose of travel

Quelle: n=1170

ElsewhereinPoland 1569EU 1522USA/Canada 667AsiabeyondtheformerSovietUnion122Russia 96Ukraine 171OthercountriesoftheformerSovietUnion92Othercoutries 596

1,569

1,522

667

122

96

171

92

Elsewhere in Poland

EU

USA/Canada

Asia beyond the former Soviet Union

Russia

Ukraine

Other countries of the former Soviet Union

Relatives abroad

Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 25Purpose of travel

Source: ZOiS

FIGURE 26Residence of relatives

Source: ZOiSn = 1,989n = 1,170


21

EU accession. FIGURE 27 Links to family members who emigrated before 1989 were a lot less pronounced.

An important component of transnational personal links is the flow of mon-ey from abroad. FIGURE 28 Nearly 15 per cent of our sample received mon-ey from relatives or friends in other EU countries, and slightly more from people they knew in Poland. Almost 14 per cent of respondents were given money by people in countries of the former Soviet Union.

Such financial remittances have become an important source of income for Poland, and they are of political and economic relevance for their recipi-ents. The equivalent of around 1.3 per cent of Poland’s gross domestic prod-uct (GDP) arrived in the form of financial remittances in 2017, according to data by the World Bank. That value has stayed largely stable over the last five years but is well below that of other high-emigration countries in the region such as the Baltic countries and neighbouring Slovakia (2.3 per cent) or Hungary (3.5 per cent).8

Migration intentions

Migration intentions are an important indicator of how well a population thinks its country is doing relative to other places. The young in particular have a higher propensity to leave their place of residence. In Poland, our survey shows that one-third would like to leave their place of residence. Among the remaining respondents, 16 per cent said they were unsure, and 50 per cent wanted to remain where they were.

8 ‘Personal remittances, received (% of GDP)’, World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?end=2017&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1970&view=chart.

Relativesabroad

Othercountries 50AsiabeyondtheformerSovietUnion21OthercountriesoftheformerSovietUnion24Russia 24Ukraine 29USA/Canada 86EU 295ElsewhereinPoland 323

Vorschlag:Receivedmoneyfromrelativesorfriendswholive…

50

21

24

24

29

86

295

323

Other countries

Asia beyond the former Soviet Union

Other countries of the former Soviet

Union

Russia

Ukraine

USA/Canada

EU

Elsewhere in Poland

Money from abroad

Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

Whenrelativesorfriendslefttoliveabroad

n=1438After2015 27.1%Between2004and201452.2%Between1989and200414.0%Before1989 6.7%

Vorschlag:Whenhaveyourrelativesorfriendslefttoliveabroad?

27.1%

52.2%

14.0%

6.7%

After 2015

Between 2004 and 2014

Between 1989 and 2004

Before 1989

When have your relatives or friends left to live abroad?

n=1438 Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,438Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

1.8%

1.2%

5.0%

10.0%

12.5%

Other

Studying

Visiting friends

Visiting family members

Work

Tourism

Purpose of travel

n=1170 Quelle: ZOiS

n=1170Quelle: Quelle: Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 27When have your relatives or friends left to live abroad?

FIGURE 28Received money from relatives or friends who live…

Source: ZOiS Source: ZOiSn = 1,438

Nearly 15 per cent received money from relatives or friends in other EU countries.

One-third would like to leave their place of residence.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?end=2017&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1970&view=chart

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?end=2017&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=1970&view=chart


22

Asked where they would like to go, the highest number (37 per cent) were attracted to other places in Poland. A sizable share of those who would like to leave cited other EU countries (24 per cent) and the US (16 per cent). Other regions are significantly less appealing to Polish youth. As triggers for their departure, 27 per cent of young Poles mentioned the combined worsening of the political and economic situation. A worsening economic situation alone was cited by 21 per cent, and a deteriorating political situation by 5 per cent. Knowing others who had already left, which might make emigration easier, was given by 10 per cent of the respondents as a motivation to leave.

Attitudes towards the EU

Seventy-seven per cent of the young Poles in our survey stated that it was the right choice for Poland to join the EU in 2004. Of the remaining respond-ents, 10 per cent disagreed, while 13 per cent did not know how to answer the question. FIGURE 29 So despite a press that is sceptical of, and at times even hostile to, the EU, and a generally critical attitude of the ruling PiS to-wards European integration, positive views of the EU persist among young people. This is in line with the generally positive evaluations of European institutions and the approval of the country’s EU membership seen among the wider Polish population.

Ideas on Europe and Russia

The survey also explored what young Poles associate with Europe and Rus-sia. We asked respondents to list their two primary associations. Young people had a generally positive view of Europe, encompassing not only eco-nomic opportunities and freedom of travel but also broader political fea-tures and lifestyle aspects. Some expressed concerns about high numbers of migrants and persisting economic inequalities.

As for Russia, the associations looked markedly different. It was hard to identify any positive attitudes expressed towards Russia. More than 80 per cent of respondents mentioned various negative associations, including cul-tural stereotypes (alcohol, cold winters), an expansionist foreign policy, the feeling that Russia is a major threat to Poland, and the domestic disarray perceived to characterise Russia. With regard to the political situation, re-spondents cited the lack of democratic freedom and political competition in Russia, alongside economic problems.

Values and ideas of community

Young Poles overall think that others living in Poland share their values. Nearly two-thirds affirmed that values were shared to a high or some de-gree. FIGURE 30 Based on a photograph, we asked specifically whether ho-mosexual couples should be allowed to show their affection for one another in public. Nearly 60 per cent answered that they should be allowed to do so. There was no difference between the view on male and female homosexual couples.

WasitrighttoPolandtohavejoinedtheEU?

Undecided No Yesn=2002 13.4% 10.1% 76.5%

13.4%

10.1%

76.5%

Undecided

No

Yes

Was it right for Poland to have joined the EU?

n=2002 Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,002 Qu

elle: Quelle:

FIGURE 29Was it right for Poland to have joined the EU?

Source: ZOiS

Positive views of the EU persist among young people.

n = 2,002


23

We also used a range of questions to enquire into the broader community values held by the respondents. Here we included a set of questions relat-ing to how respondents envisaged the Polish social and political community they would like to live in. The answers to eight questions were aggregated into four separate indices on views on community: conservative-national, liberal-national, liberal citizenship, and multicultural.

The conservative-national index included statements that affirm the im-portance of following the same customs and traditions in a country and the centrality of national culture and history to the school curriculum. The liberal-national index emphasised gaining access to the citizenship of the country while stressing the need for immigrants to identify with their national culture. The liberal citizenship index indicated that all citizens should have the same opportunities in life and stressed the importance of free speech, including the right to criticise religion. The multicultural in-dex emphasised that it is best if a country is diverse and suggested that the state should make additional efforts to cultivate that diversity.

Polish youth expressed the highest commitment to a liberal understanding of identity centred on citizenship and the exercise of citizenship duties. This was followed by a rather liberal understanding of nationalism. The often-discussed conservative values of Polish youth were not supported by our data, as the conservative-national idea of identity scored rather low. At the same time, the multicultural interpretation of identity received a similarly low score. FIGURE 31

ConservativeNationalism59.3LiberalNationalism 67.7LiberalCitizenship 73.1Multiculturalism 57.4

*Respondentswereaskedtoagree/disagree(onascale)witheachofthestatementsunderlyingthesecategories.

59

68

73

57

Conservative Nationalism

Liberal Nationalism

Liberal Citizenship

Multiculturalism

Community values Average support on a scale from 1 to 100*

Datenreihe1 Quelle: ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

n=1715Toahighdegree 14.6%Tosomedegree 64.5%Onlytoalesserdegree19.6%Notatall 1.3%

14.6%

64.5%

19.6%

1.3%

To a high degree

To some degree

Only to a lesser degree

Not at all

Are your values shared by other people in Poland?

n=1715 Quelle: ZOiS

n=1,715Quelle: ZOiS

n=2,002 Quelle:

ZOiS Quelle: ZOiS

FIGURE 31 Community valuesAverage support on a scale from 1 to 100*

FIGURE 30Are your values shared by other people in Poland?

Source: ZOiSSource: ZOiS

* Respondents were asked to agree / disagree (on a scale) with each of the statements underlying these categories.

n = 1,715


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Conclusion

Poland’s younger generation and its political participation are worth pay-ing close attention to in the near future. While expressing trust in protests, young people on average distrust their country’s official political institu-tions. Young people in Poland are very aware of recent protests in their country and participated in these protests in high numbers. They also grant significant legitimacy to protest as a form of political participation. Some-what counterintuitively in this context, only one-third of survey respond-ents said they were politically interested, and many were aware that they were not sufficiently informed about their country’s history.

Trust in political institutions and the media was generally very low, while NGOs as well as the army and the police received high trust scores. The polarisation of politics that has occurred in Poland over recent years is cer-tainly conveyed in these low levels of trust in representative institutions and the media. The crucial question for the second half of 2019 and the be-ginning of 2020 is how this political assessment will translate into the vot-ing behaviour of young people in particular.

The international political orientation of young people clearly points to the US and other EU countries. It is with these regions that young Poles want to develop closer relations, and the perception of the EU is overwhelming-ly positive, with strong support for Poland’s EU membership. Young peo-ple’s personal experiences from travelling, working, or having family and friends abroad also relate primarily to the US and other EU countries. The most recent personal links are to Europe, but ties with the US are important too, reflecting also Poland’s overall security policy. Moreover, young Poles are an internationally mobile and connected group.

With a parliamentary election coming up in October and a presidential election following shortly afterwards, the way young people want to see their country move forward will be a critical component for understanding Poland’s political developments. Politicians want to convince the electorate that they appeal to young voters and can symbolically represent the coun-try’s future. The upcoming elections will reveal very different visions of that future, from inward-looking conservative to progressive forces. This survey and the voting intentions expressed by respondents conveyed how divided young people are in their political orientation as the election cycle opens, and the political field can shift significantly until ballots are cast.

The international political orientation clearly points to the US and EU countries.


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Imprint

AuthorDr. Félix Krawatzek

Published by© Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) gGmbH

AddressCentre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) gGmbH Mohrenstraße 6010117 [email protected]

CitationFélix Krawatzek: “Youth in Poland: Outlook on life and political attitudes”, ZOiS Report 4 / 2019, (https://www.zois-berlin.de/fileadmin/media/Dateien/ZOiS_Reports/ZOiS_Report_4_2019.pdf)

ISSN 2512-7233

LayoutYuko Stier

Cover imageDenis Karpenkov / Alamy Stock Foto

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