political economy of climate change reforms
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Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms: The Case of PakistanTRANSCRIPT
Political Economy of Climate Change ReformsThe Case of Pakistan
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Vaqar AhmedSustainable Development Policy Institute
SANDEE Workshop in Environmental Economics & Policy, 17th September 2012Islamabad, Pakistan
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Macro level analysis
Sectoral level
analysis
Problem-driven
analysis
Levels of Political Economy Analysis
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Administrative reform
Service delivery Peace building Economic
growth
Key Issues under Political Economy Analysis
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Structural Features
InstitutionsAgents
Drivers in Political Economy Framework
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Citizens
Traditional Authoritie
s
State Institution
s
NGOs
Associations for Social
Movement
Businesses
Development
Partners
Political parties
Stakeholder Mapping in Political Economy Framework
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How much Climate Change is Respected in Budget?Public Sector Development Program 2012-13
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Federal and Provincial Development Programs (2011-12)
Rs. Million
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• Punjab – Forest: Rs. 470 million– Wildlife: Rs. 395 million– Fisheries: Rs. 370 million
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa– Forest: Rs. 434 million– Wildlife: Rs. 183 million– Fisheries: Rs. Rs. 400 million
• Similar classification for other provinces
Provincial Priorities
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• Strengthening institutional set-up to tackle climate change impact– Planned establishment of Environment Management Unit in Sindh
(important after 18th Amendment)
• Capacity building of the environment related institutions• Traditional hazards arising from poor water supply & sanitation• Environmental management of polluted rivers and water
bodies
– Disconnect between budget and rhetoric
Provincial Outlook 2012-13
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More Rhetoric….
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Rhetoric Continues…….
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• Conclusions Constraints Advocacy Demand
– Is your research going to advice same conclusion? – Did you identify binding constraints in implementing environmental
reforms? – Did you follow up your research via advocacy? – Did you manage to form a constituency that demands environmental
reforms?
Gap between Academia and Policy Community
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Before you give policy advice please consider three issues: • Social capital for making a specific intervention• Social accountability (and urban spaces)• Social innovation (and cleaner environment)
How Innovative is our Research Process?
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3 Case Studies
Public expenditure and social
capital
Cities being more
responsive to poor
Finding innovation
processes that reduce
inequalities
Socially-relevant Economic Growth Process
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• Floods in 2010 and 2011• Investment available from local and external sources
– Absorption of adaptation measures difficult (people don’t want to move from their flooded homes)
• In 2010 significant portion of disaster management funds surrendered/diverted
• In 2011 social mobilization teams went first and interventions came latter
• In 2011 pre-flood negotiations with katcha settlers – Absorption improved and timely expenditures observed
Social Capital and Disaster Management
Social Capital more important than human and physical capital
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• South Asian Mayor’s Meeting• We conducted social accountability interventions in
two urban slum areas with lowest enrollment: – Minority Christian community– Migrant community
• Parents-Teachers committees formed over 13 months and parents informed on registering grievances
• Parents ensuring not only child attendance but also content of schooling
• A case for micro-governance interventions
Social Accountability and Cities
Cities have a greater tendency to be pro-poor
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• While formal innovation systems still remain clogged by barriers to entry in market
• It is the informal innovations that are pro-poor and have greater growth potential– Honey bee network Anil Gupta
• Case Study of Garbage Bank (Gul Bahao Project) – Low cost consumer durables– Housing at affordable prices– Infrastructure at lower unit costs
Social Innovation and Environment
Innovations that respond to needs of the poor
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Non-traditional
security threat
Human insecurity
National emergency
Thinking Climate Change - differently
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Thinking Climate Change - differently
Direct impact
Indirect Consequences Slow-onset
Water Food Health Mega-projects
Disasters Bio-fuel Sea level
Short term (2007-2020)
Local conflict over water
Failure to meet MDGs
Failure to meet MDGs
Long history of development-induced displacement from 1950s
Nation states begin to lose credibility due to inability to prevent large disasters
Isolated food – fuel competition & price spikes
Small number of displacements
Medium term (2021-2050)
Increased local & some international conflict over water
Significant displacement due to famine
Interacts with food production problems
Displacement of rural poor due to CDM & large scale dams & other state based mitigation & adaptation projects
Significant political unrest due to failure of DRR & inadequate recovery in many countries
Food-fuel competition increases & biodiversity erosion
Increasing displacement & national/ international tension
Long term (2051-2100)
Major international conflict over water
Major displacement & political upheaval
Major displacement due to epidemics
Major urban upheaval and other political fall out from mega-project displacement
Major upheaval with international implications due to unattended weather catastrophes
Major discontent due to food-fuel competition
Major international tensions due to population displacement
Ben Wisner etal,15April 2007, Climate Change and Human Security
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Message from Human Development Report
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How Environment Challenges Human Development?
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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations
• Sustainable Development
– Devising implementation framework for National Sustainable Development Strategy• Focus less on investment aspects and more on governance
– Where to after devolution? • Environmental appraisal of national and sub-national policies, programs
and projects
– Establishing National Fund on Climate Change and Green Development
– Central Bank to incentivize green investments
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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations
• Cleaner Energy
– Alternative energy: Revisit hydel power
– Technology for cleaner conventional sources: clean coal, carbon capture and storage, and carbon offset
– Energy Efficiency: adopt policies, financing instruments, and information dissemination to promote energy efficiency in power generation and distribution, transport, buildings, and industry
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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations
• Two additional areas
– Sustainable agriculture for food security
– Sustainable urbanization
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Bottom Line in Political Economy Analysis for Climate Change Interventions
• Where is the capacity to comprehend advice?
• Is there enough social capital to make intervention?
• Is it possible to introduce demand-side accountability?
• Will it be least cost intervention?
