political risk outlook briefing pack - february 2014 - slideshare
DESCRIPTION
What are the political trends that will shape markets in 2014? The Political Monitor risk outlook pack takes a look.TRANSCRIPT
www.politicalmonitor.com.au
Political risk outlook - February 2014
February 2014
Political risk outlook
OUTLINE
This presentation provides a summary of Political Monitor’s monthly Risk Outlook report. It includes Political Monitor’s proprietary risk scores and indices including the Asia Political Risk Index.
To find out more about subscribing to the monthly pack please contact:
Damian Karmelich Steve Cusworth
Partner – Sydney Partner - Melbourne
p. 0407 772 548 p. 0417 178 697
e. [email protected],au e. [email protected]
February 2014
Political risk outlook
CONTENTS
• Global outlook …………………………………………………………………….. p. 4
• Asia Political Risk Index …………………………………………………………. p. 6
• Key influencing factors …………………………………………………. p .7
• Country in focus: Indonesia ……………………………………………………... p. 8
• Latest reports ………………....…………………………………………………... p. 9
• Appendix 1 ………………………………………………………………………… p. 12
February 2014
Political risk outlook
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
• Elections are set to shape markets in 2014 as some of the world’s most important
economies go to the polls. Politicians in the United States, European Union, Brazil,
South Africa and Indonesia will all face voters.
• The US debt ceiling debate is cloaked in the politics of the Congressional mid-term
elections and the battle for the soul of the Republican party between moderates and
Tea Party radicals.
• Likewise Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D) opposition to fast track approval for
trade deals is a play to the Democratic base of labour unions and a sign that the
Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement will not pass through Congress easily.
• The flight of hot money from emerging markets in response to a wind down of
quantitative easing has revealed the institutional weakness within many of these
countries and the extent of political risk in these markets.
February 2014
Political risk outlook
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
• Argentina, Brazil, South Africa & Turkey all suffer from systemic weaknesses including
an executive that confuses their own political interests with that of the country, a
trampling of judicial independence, corruption and a political process dominated by
one major party.
• The pummeling of emerging market currencies will have a dire effect on living
standards.
• In many countries this will be exacerbated by weak commodity prices and the
resultant hit to government revenue making it harder for regimes to paper over latent
social inequality and spend their way out of crisis.
• Political turmoil across emerging markets will continue to rise over the coming weeks
and months.
February 2014
Political risk outlook
ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX - risk of turmoil high in some of the region’s most important economies
February 2014
Political risk outlook
ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX – Key influencing factors
• Countries rated VERY HIGH or EXTREME share a number of characteristics including
– high levels of corruption, large proportion of population under the age of 30 and high
youth unemployment, a large proportion of household budgets spent on foodstuffs and
low levels of investment from domestic firms.
• Furthermore, VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries have limited outlets for
political discourse pushing dissent underground where it is difficult to track but prone
to rapid escalation with little notice.
• The recent flight of money out of emerging markets will further expose the underlying
institutional weakness of a number of VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries.
• A number of VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries share characteristics with
those Arab countries that experienced turmoil during the ‘Arab Spring’.
• A number of MODERATE and LOW risk countries confront significant economic
challenges but are less exposed to political volatility and / or social turmoil.
February 2014
Political risk outlook
COUNTRY IN FOCUS - Indonesia
• Indonesia is currently rated a HIGH risk with a score of 55 out of 100 on the Political Monitor Asia Political Risk Index.
• Presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 limit the scope for economic reform and a sustained battle against corruption and rising social inequality.
• Election season is also contributing to a rise in populism and economic nationalism. Recent bans on the export of unprocessed mineral ores, foreign ownership restrictions for banks and import tariffs all play to a domestic audience in an election year.
• Ethnic and religious tensions continue to simmer in the regions. While the government has subdued terrorist groups underlying issues such as youth unemployment and rising inequality remain fertile hunting grounds for extremists.
• While Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo is emerging as a firm favourite for the presidency Indonesia’s geographic, ethnic and religious diversity ensures no party can acquire a majority in the parliament sentencing the country to more years of coalition rule.
February 2014
Political risk outlook
LATEST REPORTS
Lower prices set to change politics of foreign investment
The hit to national income from lower commodity prices is likely to force a dramatic re-think of Australians’ attitude towards foreign ownership.
The competition agenda – a return to incentives
The Abbott Government’s ‘root and branch’ review of competition policy offers the prospect of a return to the productivity-fuelled growth of the 1990s. Yet of most importance will be the underlying shift from a focus on enabling to a focus on incentives.
Shanghai Free Trade Zone – opportunities & risks
The Shanghai Free Trade Zone offers opportunities and pitfalls for firms. Understanding the rules and the longer term plan is the key to success.
February 2014
Political risk outlook
Detailed analysis on these and other political risks confronting investors can be found at www.politicalmonitor.com.au
About Political Monitor
Political Monitor is a political risk research and advisory firm. Our analysis provides insight into the implications of political risk for commercial valuations, asset selection, investment decisions, strategic planning and operational decisions.
February 2014
DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT
Disclaimer
Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of Seller.
Seller does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of any of the data and/or programs (“Information”) available within the report. The Information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title or non-infringement.
In no event will Seller or its affiliates be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other damages for any use of or reliance upon the Information found within the report, or on any other reference documentation, including, without limitation, lost profits, business interruption, loss of programs or other data, even if Seller is expressly advised of the possibility of such damages.
The disclaimer is in addition to the specific terms and conditions that apply to the products or services offered by Seller.
Copyright
Copyright © Political Monitor Pty Ltd 2014. This document is copyright and contains confidential information that is the property of Seller. Except for the purposes of executing or applying this report, no part of this document may be copied, stored in a retrieval system or divulged to any other party without written permission. Such rights are reserved in all media.
Intellectual property rights associated with the methodology applied in arriving at this document, including templates and models contained there in, reside with Political Monitor Pty Ltd, excepting client information it contains that is demonstrably proprietary to the client or covered by an agreement or contract defining it as such.
No part of this report may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any form by any means, without the written permission of Political Monitor Pty Ltd.
© Political Monitor Pty Ltd 2014. All Rights Reserved . ACN 166 162 572.
Political risk outlook February 2014
Political risk outlook
APPENDIX 1 - ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX METHODOLOGY
The Political Monitor Asia Political Risk Index tracks nine key variables that go to the core of political risk in a country. The variables provide an indication of economic and social inequality, particularly among key demographics, and the risk of political and social turmoil. Those variables include the level of youth unemployment, corruption, elasticity of demand for food, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line, and the proportion of foreign debt to Gross National Income (GNI).
The index provides a relative score for each country. Accordingly, a low (particularly negative) raw score signals lower relative risk while a high raw score signals higher relative risk. Scores have then been scaled from 0 – 100. A score of 50 signals average risk relative to other countries.
February 2014