political science tony e. carey jr., ph.d. assistant professor department of political science...
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Political Science
Tony E. Carey Jr., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
Racial and Ethnic Politics in the 2012 Presidential Primaries
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Political ScienceRace and U.S. Presidential Elections
Historically, issues of race have had a central role in American campaigns.
Racial considerations communicated by campaign messages and imagery.
Previously, racial appeals were explicit in nature.
Now, racial messages are more subtle.
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Political ScienceRacial Cues in Campaigns
Racial rhetoric and imagery from candidates can activate voters’ negative racial attitudes (Valentino et. al., 2002)
Notable exampleso “White hands” advertisement by Jesse Helms’
1990 North Carolina Senate campaignoWillie Horton advertisement by George H.W. Bush
during 1988 presidential election
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Political ScienceRick Santorum on Welfare
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Political ScienceNewt Gingrich and Food Stamps
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Political ScienceMobilizing the Base
Comments were inconsistent with who is on public assistanceo Iowa food stamp recipients, 9 percent are black
and 84 percent are whiteoNationally, 34 percent are white and 21 percent
are black
What was the purpose of making these comments?o Trigger negative racial predispositions from
certain segments of their base.
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Political ScienceThe Latino Electorate
Latinos are the largest ethnic minority group in the United States.
Size of Latino electorate increased between 2006 and 2010 (Pew Hispanic Center). o Eligible voters increased from 17.3 to 21.3 million.o Percentage of electorate increased from 5.8 to 6.9 %.
Latino vote expected to have significant impact on general election.
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Political ScienceRepublican Candidates on Immigration
Some Republican candidates in favor of stronger immigration policies.
Other candidates proposed less restrictive ideas.o Believed to have crippled their campaigns.
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Political ScienceOther Latino-relevant Issues
All but Gingrich oppose the DREAM act
All support recent voter identification laws that have been passed across the country.
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Political ScienceConsequences of Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric
May mobilize base of voterso Particularly in states with large Anglo-American
populations
Yet, may alienate Latino voterso Increasingly important population in a number of
swing states
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Political Science
Project New America Swing State Poll, April 16-18, 2012
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Political ScienceConclusion
Racialized rhetoric and imagery is often used as way to mobilize the core base of supporters
May also alienate candidates from key constituencies in the general election.
As Latino electorate continues to grow, the Republican Party may be facing some serious problems.