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  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University

    I collaborators: I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, Columbia I David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington University I Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&M I Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, Harvard I Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, Caltech I Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?

    Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

  • Pre-election polls and forecasting Partisan bias in the electoral college?

    Probability the election is tied When and why is it rational to vote?

    Polls and Presidential elections

    I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much when votes are so predictable?

    I How are pre-election polls conducted? I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

    I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

    I What is the probability that the election is tied?

    I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

    I When and why is it rational to vote?