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PatrickBoissonDr.Long/Dr.KryskoPOLSC/HIST81015Nov2015/ProspectusFirstDraft

ChinesePublicOpinionThroughthelensofMassIncidents

TowhatextentdoespublicopiniondrivepolicymakinginChina?Thisisthe

overridingresearchquestionthatthisprojectwillattempttoshedsomelighton

andachieveagreaterdegreeofunderstandingon.Thepurposeofthisresearch

questioninregardstoChinaistobetterunderstandhowdomesticpublicconcern

drivesoverallpolicymaking.TherelationshipbetweentheChinesepublicandthe

ChineseCommunistParty(CCP)hasbeenselectedasthefocusofthisstudydueto

therepressivenatureofCCPpolicies,whichdonotpermitthefreedomof

expression,enjoyedbydemocraticstates.Theserepressivepoliciesrepresentthe

majorhurdlethatpreventthisprojectoranyprojectatthispointintimeforcoming

remotelyclosetoshowingthetruerelationshipbetweenChinesepublicopinionand

overallpolicydecisionmaking.

Thequestionthenbecomes,howisitpossibletodeterminehowpublic

opinionofChinesecitizensdrivespolicymakingwhenfreedomofexpressionand

publicopinionissotightlyregulated?Thispaperapproachesthisproblemwithan

indirectmethod,thatmethodinvolvesusing“massincidents”byChinesecitizensas

anindicatorinunderstandingthedynamicbetweentheChinesepublicandtheCCP.

ThisprojectsupportstheargumentthatinregardstomassincidentsinChina,

publicopinionisofparamountconcerntotheCCPandthatwithoutmassincidents

thesurvivaloftheCCPregimewouldbethreatened.Additionallythispaper

theorizesthatmassincidentshavethepotentialtobecomeadirectthreattothe

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CCP’sregimeinChinaintheeventthatinstitutionalgoverningpracticesarenot

addressedatthelocallevel,andifInternetcontrolsee’sacontinuedtrendof

upwardmassInternetincidents.Thistheoryissupportedbytheincreasinglevelsof

violencethatmassincidentshavebeentakingonovertheyearswhileadditionally

alsoseeinganothertrendofmassincidentsovertheInternetalsoincreasingin

magnitudeovertheyearsaswell.

Whilethereisastrongbodyofliteraturealreadydevotedtounderstanding

massincidentsinChinafrom1989throughthemid2000’s,thereappearstobe

moreresearchneededinanalyzingthetrendsofmassincidentsinthepresent

decade.Thisprojectattemptstoaddapositivecontributiontothecurrentbodyof

literatureonmassincidentsinChinabyrecognizingtheCCP’sabilitytousemass

incidentsasameanstowardspolicyreformwhilealsoacknowledgingthepotential

thattheinternetandtechnologyhasindefiningthemagnitudeandnatureofmass

incidents.

Therelevantliteraturethatthisprojectattemptstobuilduponlieswiththe

contributionsmadebythefollowing:YanqiTongandShaohuaLei’s“Large-Scale

MassIncidentsandGovernmentResponsesinChina.”AndrewWedeman’s“Enemies

oftheState:MassIncidentsandSubversioninChina.”MurrayScotTanner’s“China

RethinksUnrest.”AndAshleyEsareyandXiaoQiang’s“DigitalCommunicationand

PoliticalChangeinChina.”Thisprojectwillidentifythekeyargumentsand

conclusionsmadebyeachsourceandhowtheycombinetosupportthisprojects

argumentandtheory.

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BeginningwithYanqiTongandShaohuaLei’s“LargeMassIncidentsand

GovernmentResponsesinChina”themajorthemefocusesonidentifyingdifferent

typesofmassincidentsexperiencedinChinawhileadditionallyidentifyingwhich

typeofmassincidentismostthreateningtotheCCP’sregimeinChina.Additionally

theauthorsprovidereasoningforhowtheCCPusesmassincidentsasameansof

makinginstitutionalandpoliticalreformtoensuresocialstabilityinChina.This

outlookonhowtheCCPutilizesmassincidentsasameansforsurvivalisincredibly

usefulinattemptingtounderstandtherolethatpublicopinionplaysinpolicy

reforminChina.Additionallythetypeofmassincidencethattheauthorsprovideas

beingtheactualthreattotheCCP’sregimeinChinaisilluminatingandhelpsto

betterunderstandpossiblywhytheCCPissomotivatedtocontrolinternettraffic.

Theauthorscategoriesoflargescalemassincidentsinvolve:labordisputes,

landandrelocationdisputes,disturbancesandriots,ethnicconflicts,protestsfrom

themiddleclass,anddisappearingtypes.1Theimportanceofthiscategorizationlies

withauthorscontributingtotheoveralldefinitionofmassincidents.Accordingto

theMinistryofPublicSecurity,large-scalemassincidentsrefertoamassincident

withmorethan500participants.2Thiscategorizationhelpsthereaderunderstand

thecontextofspecificlarge-scaleincidentsopposedtosimplyknowingthatmore

than500citizenswereapartoftheincidentitself.

1Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508. 2 Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.

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Thekeyimportanceofthesecategoriesandthedatathattheyyieldlieswith

theauthorsconclusions.Thoseconclusionsbeingthattheoverallupsurgeoflarge-

scalemassincidentsinrecentyearsisareflectionofincreasedsocialtensionsin

Chinaduetothestructuralchangesofstateownedenterprises,wideningincome

disparities,andgrowingrightsawarenessonthepartofthepopulation.Additionally

themostthreateningofthesecategoriesisthenon-economicinterestdrivenmass

incidentsthatfallunderthedisturbancesandriotscategory.3Thisisbecausemass

incidentsthataretriggeredbyeconomicgrievanceshavecleardemandsthathave

theabilitytobesettledquicklybythepartiesinvolvedorifthecentralgovernment

needstostepinifnecessarytohelpwithfunding.Socialdisturbancesarethemost

threateningtotheregimeinChinabecauseasocialdisturbanceinvolvesthe

majorityoftheparticipantsnothavingaparticulardemandordirectinterest,but

simplywantingtodisturbthepublicorderwhileariotisthemoreradicalformof

disturbanceinwhichgatheringcrowdsarecommittingactsofviolence.4

Thefinalconclusionisthattherootcauseofthesocialtensionanddistrustof

thegovernmentlieswithpoorlocalgovernance.5Theimportancebehindthepoor

governanceatthelocallevelisinhowthecentralgovernmentutilizesthesemass

incidentsasameanstoevaluatehowlocalgovernmentsperformunderpressure.

3 Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508. 4 Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508. 5 Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.

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Massincidentsserveasalmostascienceexperimentinthisregardswherethe

centralgovernmentcanobservewhatpoliciesordecisionswentrightandwrong

andthenmoveontopossiblymakeinstitutionalchangestopreventsuchmass

incidentsfromrecurringunderthesameconditions.Thekeyaspectofthesemass

incidentsisthatthemassincidentsthemselvesarelocalizedandisolatedincidents

whichmeanstheygenerallystrictlyapplyonlytheprovincethemselvesandnot

Chinaasawhole.

InregardstoAndrewWedeman’s“EnemiesoftheState:MassIncidentsand

SubversioninChina,”ProfessorWedemancontributestothesubjectofmass

incidentsbyanalyzingthemassincidentsfrom1990to2008attemptingto

determineiftheCCPregimefaceschallengesfromorganizedsubversivegroupsorif

themassincidentshaveremainedasdisorganizedprotests.Intheprocessof

answeringthisquestion,ProfessorWedemanhelpsshedlightondefiningthe

magnitudeandcompositionofthesemassincidentsingeneral.

Wedeman’sconclusionssupportYanqiTongandShaohuaLei’sanalysisthat

althoughmassincidentshaveincreasedsignificantly,themajorityofunrestis

largelyincoherentanddisorganizedandthatthemassincidentsarenotassociated

withbroaderpoliticalissuesbutratheronspecificlocalgrievances.6Wedeman’skey

contributionthatdifferentiateshimselffromYanqiTongandShaohuaLeiliesinhis

subversionfindingsinwhichthereisevidenceoforganizedsubversion,thissame

subversionisdisorganizedandfragmentedeffortandthatthereisverylittle

6 Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009.

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commongrounduponwhichtobaseabroadsubversivechallengetotheexisting

politicalorder.7LastlyWedemanprovidesaquotefromCCPPartySecretaryShi

Zongyuanwhostatesthatmuchoftheblamefortherisingdiscontentlieswithlocal

officialswhoratherthandealwithlocalproblems,disregardslegitimatecomplaints

andforcecitizenstotakegrievancestothestreets.8

InregardstoMurrayScotTanner’s“ChinaRethinksUnrest”thekey

contributiontothesubjectofmassincidentslieswithherabilitytohighlightthe

importancethatthesemassincidentsaretakingonasseenashowChina’spolice

andsecurityofficialsarestrugglingtodealwiththeconsequencesofthese

increasinglevelsofunrest.ThekeyconclusionfromTanner’sanalysisthataligns

withtheprevioustwoarticlesrunswiththethemeofinstitutionalfailure.Tanner

goesontostatehowcritiquesarguethatmassprotestaretosomeextentan

inevitableproductofsocioeconomicdevelopment,butareexacerbatedwhen

politicalandlegalinstitutionsfailtokeepupwithchange,andthatwhencitizens

havenotlearnedhowtovoicedemandsthroughtheavailablepoliticalandlegal

channels,orifthosechannelsarecloggedorunderdeveloped,frustrationinevitably

spillsoverintothestreets.9

7 Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009. 8 Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009. 9 Tanner, Murray Scot. "China rethinks unrest." Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (2004): 137-156.

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ThelastarticlebyAshleyEsareyandXiaoQiangfocuseslessonmass

incidentsandmoreonhowtheCCPhasexperiencedthreephasesofinformation

regimechangewhilealsohighlightinghowtheCCPcontrolstheInternettocontrol

andguidepoliticalexpression.Thekeyconclusionfromthisanalysisisthatmass

selfcommunicationviablogsandothermediaenablesfreedomofspeechand

politicalparticipation,eveninauthoritarianregimes.ThisappliesdirectlytoChina

becauseduetoChina’svastsize,activistshaddifficultycreatinglinkageswith

activistselsewhere,whomayhavehadsimilarconcernsorbeenwillingtosupporta

popularmovement.Throughtheuseofmoderntechnologylikeblogs,onlinevideo

clips,email,andtextmessages,activistscanutilizeinteractiverelationshipsto

garnerbroadsupportfortheircauses.10

Theadditionalpieceofdataworthmentioningisinreferenceto“mass

Internetincidents”whichinvolveonemillionormorevisitstoawebsitebyusers.

In2003,thereweretwomassInternetincidentsandby2009thenumberofmass

Internetincidentshadrisento12.11Thesignificanceoftheselarge-scalemass

Internetincidentsisnotonlyaretheyincreasinginfrequencybutthattheireffects

areveryrealinforcingchange.Thisisapparentintheircontributionsto:the

abolitionofthecustodyandrepatriationsystemformigrantworkers,thehaltingof

state-sponsoredurbandevelopmentprojects,theoverhaulofthecriminaljustice

systemtoreduceabuseofinmatesinprisons,thereconsiderationofamurdercase10 Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22. 11 Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22.

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involvingtheslayingofalocalofficial,andtheinvestigationanddismissalof

numerouslocalpartyleaders.12

Whatthefirstthreearticlesshareincommonisthatthereisundoubtedly

institutionalfailureatthelocallevel,whichisarguablyoneofthekeycausalfactors

inpreventingtheoutbreakofmassincidentsinChina.Duetomassincidentsbeing

primarilydrivenbyeconomicgrievancesmostarelocalinnatureandforthisreason

arenotasubversivethreattotheCCP’sregime.TheCCPisabletousetheselocal

massincidentstotheiradvantagetogarnermorelegitimacyforsteppinginwhen

neededandattemptingtolearnfromthelocalgovernmentmistakesandthento

promoteinstitutionalreformwithouthavingtoacknowledgeit.

ThekeytotheCCPmaintainingsocialstabilitylieswithkeepingmass

incidentslocalandkeepingthenumberofmassincidentsthatarenon-economic

drivenaslowaspossiblesincethesocialdisturbancesandriothavethegreatest

potentialforbeingsubversiveinnatureandspiralingoutofcontrolthequickest.

Sincekeepingmassincidentsunorganizedappearstobeamajorstrengthforthe

CCPinmakinginstitutionalchangeatthelocalgovernmentlevel,naturallyoneof

thelargestthreatstothisformoflearningthroughfailurewouldbeintheCCP’s

inabilitytocontrolInternetliberalization.TheInternethasthepotentialtospread

activistandsubversivebehavioraroundChinaandcouldbeusedasameansto

bringalargersenseofpurposetowardsamassincident.Inordertofurthersupport

thishypothesisthisprojectneedsmoreinformationinregardstothenumberof

12 Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22.

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massinternetincidentssince2009andtofindadditionalinformationonmass

incidentsinChinabetween2010to2015toseeifmassincidentshavecontinued

theirincreasingfrequencyandincreasinglevelsofviolence.