polyvalent adaptations - masters of architecture thesis

POLYVALENT ADAPTATIONSprojective infrastructures for sea level rise & regional migration

byAlexander L. Ring


byAlexander L. RingB.Arch.Sci, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada, 2005-2009


byAlexander L. RingB.Arch.Sci, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada, 2005-2009

Committee Members:

Raymond Cole (GP II Chair)B.Sc., Ph.D. .......................................

Kees Lokman B.Sc., M.Sc., M.De.Ss. .......................................

Tony Osborn Architect AIBC, MRAIC, LEED AP .......................................

Matthew Soules (GP I Mentor) B.A., M.Arch., Architect AIBC .......................................

Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Architecture in The Faculty of Graduate Studies, School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, Architecture Program

Copyright December 2015University of British Columbia, BC, Canada

iii

POLYVALENT

Having many different functions, forms or facets. - Oxford English Dictionary

ADAPTATION

The process of change by which an organism or species becomes better suited to its environment. - Oxford English Dictionary

vTABLE OF CONTENTS

Definitions iii

Table of Contents v

List of Illustrations vii

Acknowledgements & Dedication xv

Thesis Statement 1

Field of Inquiry 3

Intent & Position 7

Sea Level Rise 9

Architecture, Infrastructure & Ecology 39

Small Island Nations 53

Kingdom of Tonga 71

Precedents 119

Polyvalent Adaptations: A Narrative 153

Polyvalent Adaptations: A Framework 195

Bibliography 231

Illustration Credits 237

Appendices 247

Table of Contents

vii

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

List of Illustrations

For a list of illustration credits see the section at the end of the document.

Tables:

Table 1. Historic and Projected Carbon Emissions Based on Most Likely Scenarios. 21

Table 2. Historic and Projected Sea Level Rise Based on Most Likely Scenarios. 21

Table 3. Population Growth in Tonga. 80

Table 4. Number of Cyclones in Tonga per Decade. 82

Table 5. Tongas Ecosystem Diversity. 89

Figures:

Figure 1. Franz Joseph Glacier, New Zealand. 11

Figure 2. Extent of New Land Created in Wellington, New Zealand by the Wairapa Earthquake in 1855. 13

Figure 3. New Volcanic Island Formed in 2015 Near Tonga. 13

Figure 4. Impacts of Coastal Erosion in Eita, Kiribati. 14

Figure 5. Deforestation in Indonesia to Grow Red Palm Trees. 17

Figure 6. Illegal Sand Mining in India. 17

Figure 7. Aerial View of Mal City in the Maldives. 19

viii List of Illustrations

Figure 8. Estimated Land Inundation with Six Metres of Sea Level Rise. 22-23

Figure 9. Representation of Amount of Population Affected by One, Two and Ten Metres of Sea Level Rise. 24-25

Figure 10. Reduction in Shoreline Protection. 27

Figure 11. Physical Damage from Sea Level Rise and Extreme Weather. 27

Figure 12. New Jersey Shore Before Hurricane Sandy. 29

Figure 13. New Jersey Shore After Hurricane Sandy. 29

Figure 14. Erosion Damage in the Solomon Islands. 31

Figure 15. Causes and Implications of and Exposure and Barriers to Sea Level Rise and Climate Change for Coastal Settlements. 32-33

Figure 16. Qianan Sanlihe Greenway, Hebei Province, China. 40

Figure 17. Impacts of Coastal Erosion and Drought on Coconut Palms in Kiri-bati. 54

Figure 18. Non-Continental Island Formation. 57

Figure 19. Topography of Volcanic Island of Saint Lucia with Zero, Ten and Twenty Metres of Sea Level Rise. 59

Figure 20. Populated Valley in Saint Lucia with Rich Agricultural Land. 59

Figure 21. Diagram of an Island Freshwater Lens. 60

Figure 22. Topography of Typical Maldives Atoll with Zero, Ten and Twenty Metres of Sea Level Rise. 61

Figure 23. One of Over a Thousand Atoll Islands in the Maldives. 61

Figure 24. Topography of the Raised Limestone Island of Tongatapu, Tonga, with Sero, Ten and Twenty Metres of Sea Level Rise. 63

Figure 25. View of the Capital of Tonga, Nukualofa. 63

Figure 26. Map Showing the Locations of Small Island Nations. 64-65

Figure 27. Mangrove Planting to Increase Island Protection from Extreme Weather Events in Tuvalu. 67

Figure 28. Tonganese National Rugby Team Performing their Ritual Dance. 72

Figure 29. Tonga Flag. 74

Figure 30. Location of Tonga. 76

Figure 31. Jurisdictional Map of Tonga. 79

Figure 32. Geological Ridges of the Tongan Islands. 83

Figure 33. Geological Make-up of Tongatapu. 85

Figure 34. South Coast of the Island of Tongatapu. 85

Figure 35. Handline-fishing Grounds Near Tongatapu. 86

ixList of Illustrations

Figure 36. Net-fishing Grounds Around Tongatapu. 87

Figure 37. Spear-fishing Grounds Around Tongatapu. 87

Figure 38. Satellite View of Tongatapu. 90-91

Figure 39. Kingdom of Tonga Transportation Map. 93

Figure 40. Island of Tongatapu Transportation Map. 94-95

Figure 41. Historic Map of Tonga Created by James Wilson in the Nineteenth Century. 97

Figure 42. Traditional Yam Storage Building. 99

Figure 43. HaAmonga. 99

Figure 44. Traditional Fale. 101

Figure 45. Fale With Wood Siding. 101

Figure 46. Fale With Wood Siding and Flattened Kerosene Tins for Shingles. 103

Figure 47. Fale With Wood Siding and Corrugated Iron Roofing. 103

Figure 48. Royal Palace Constructed During Bakers Premiership. 105

Figure 49. Contemporary Housing in Tonga. 105

Figure 50. Housing in Swampland in Nukualofa. 107

Figure 51. Inundation from 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 Metres of Sea Level Rise in the Kingdom of Tonga. 108-109

Figure 52. Inundation from 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 Metres of Sea Level Rise on the Island of Tongatapu. 111-113

Figure 53. Veta La Palma Parque Natural Estuary. 120

Figure 54. Svalbard Global Seed Vault Entrance. 123

Figure 55. Plan and Section of Svalbard Global Seed Vault. 123

Figure 56. Veta La Palma Parque Natural Estuary. 125

Figure 57. Aerial View of Veta La Palma Parque Natural. 125

Figure 58. Arctic Ecologies. 127

Figure 59. Proposed Arctic Food Network on Baffin Island, Nunavut. 127

Figure 60. Projected Outcomes of Arctic Food Network. 128

Figure 61. Architecture of the Arctic Food Network. 129

Figure 62. Abandoned Ksars Near Ouarzazate, Morocco. 131

Figure 63. Site Plans and Emergence Through Adaptive Management, Stan Allen and James Corner. 133

Figure 64. Proposed Sections Through Cantho Civic Spine. 135

Figure 65. Existing and Proposed Urbanization. 135

Figure 66. Infrastructural Diagram of IP2100. 137

x List of Illustrations

Figure 67. Rendering of IP2100. 137

Figure 68. Rendering of IP2100. 138

Figure 69. Aerial Visualization of IP2100. 138

Figure 70. Plan of Extent of IP2100. 139

Figure 71. Wilderness in Tommy Thompson Park. 141

Figure 72. Aerial View of Tommy Thompson Park. 141

Figure 73. Public Consultation Through Rebuild by Design. 143

Figure 74. New Meadowlands Proposal. 143

Figure 75. Lake Ontario and Downtown Toronto from the Toronto Harbour. 145

Figure 76. Watershed Areas of the Great Lakes. 145

Figure 77. Construction of Town Square Structures and Paving, 2011. 147

Figure 78. View of Town Square from Southwest Hill, 2011. 147

Figure 79. Ise Grand Shrine Construction Almost Completed. 149

Figure 80. Aerial Image of Ise Grand Shrine With Reconstruction of Right Shrine Almost Complete. 149

Figure 81. A Storm is Coming. 155

Figure 82. Narrative Locations on Island of Tongatapu, Tonga. 156

Figure 83. Existing House on the Outskirts of Nukualofa. 159

Figure 84. Existing House Location Plan. 159

Figure 85. Planting of the North Edge of the Vaota. 161

Figure 86. Vaota Edge Location Plan. 161

Figure 87. Planting of the Second Phase of the Vaota. 163

Figure 88. Planting the Vaota Location Plan. 163

Figure 89. Arriving at the Foou Mua Market. 165

Figure 90. Market Location Plan. 165

Figure 91. View of Existing Quarry from the Market. 167

Figure 92. Quarry & Market Location Plan. 167

Figure 93. Approaching the Vaota in the Start of a Storm. 169

Figure 94. Vaota Edge Location Plan. 169

Figure 95. Famine Foods Harvesting. 171

Figure 96. Famine Foods Location Plan. 171

Figure 97. Aftermath of the Storm at Fokais Farm. 173

Figure 98. Location Plan of Fokais Farms. 173

Figure 99. Fokais New Residence in Foou Mua. 175

xi

Figure 100. New Residence Location Plan. 175

Figure 101. Pedestrian and Bike Path in the Vaota. 177

Figure 102. Location Plan of Path. 177

Figure 103. Haamonga a Maui Historic Site Relocated into a Container in the Vaota. 179

Figure 104. Haamonga a Maui Location Plan. 179

Figure 105. Royal Palace Relocated into the Vaota. 181

Figure 106. Royal Palace Location Plan. 181

Figure 107. View of the Cistern and Quarry from the Heilala Celebrations at the Market. 183

Figure 108. Cistern & Quarry Location Plan. 183

Figure 109. Readying for the Coming Storm at Fokais Farm. 185

Figure 110. Location Plan of Fokais Farm. 185

Figure 111. Retreating with the Cattle Along the Egress Routes. 187

Figure 112. Egress Route Location Plan. 187

Figure 113. Temporary Cattle Holding Container in the Vaota. 189

Figure 114. Cattle Holding Container Location Plan. 189

Figure 115. Front of Fokais Residence in Foou Mua. 191

Figure 116. Urban Residence Location Plan. 191

Figure 117. Market Being Used as an Emergency Food Hub. 193

Figure 118. Market Location Plan. 193

Figure 119. Island of Eua, Part of the Kingdom of Tonga. 196

Figure 120. Infrastructure as an Independence Resource. 199

Figure 121. Infrastructure as an Emergency Response Cache. 199

Figure 122. Infrastructure as a Spine for New Settlement. 199

Figure 123. Existing Plan of the Island of Tongatapu. 200

Figure 124. Proposed Plan of the Island of Tongatapu, Kingdom of Tonga, with Narrative Locations. 202

Figure 125. Vaota Planting Rules Along the 20 Metre Line. 204

Figure 126. Example Plan of the Vaota. 206

Figure 127. Examples of Nodes, Lines and Containers that Make up the Vaota. 208

Figure 128. Example of Expansion of the Vaota Below 20 Metres. 208

Figure 129. Example of Expansion of the Vaota Above 20 Metres. 209

Figure 130. Sectional Zoning at Location One. 210

Figure 131. Sectional Zoning at Location Two. 211

xii List of Illustrations

Figure 132. Sectional Zoning at Location Three. 212

Figure 133. General Zoning Plan. 213

Figure 134. Food Zoning Plan. 213

Figure 135. Water Zoning Plan. 214

Figure 136. Energy Zoning Plan. 214

Figure 137. Protection Zoning Plan. 215

Figure 138. Waste Zoning Plan. 215

Figure 139. Existing Urban Density in 2015 (50,000 people). 216

Figure 140. Possible Future Urban Configurations. 216

Figure 141. Existing, Minimum Existing & Proposed Urban Densities. 217

Figure 142. Existing & Proposed Urban Lots. 217

Figure 143. Existing Urban Density in 2015 Relocated (50,000 people). 218

Figure 144. Existing Urban Density in 2100 Relocated (100,000 people). 218

Figure 145. Proposed Urban Density in 2015 Relocated (50,000 people). 219

Figure 146. Proposed Urban Density in 2100 Relocated (100,000 people). 219

Figure 147. Building Code Zones. 220

Figure 148. Perspective of Residence Below. 220

Figure 149. Plans of Residence Below. 221

Figure 150. Minimum Requirements for Residence Above. 222

Figure 151. Possible Future Block Configurations. 223

Figure 152. Possible Container Uses. 224

Figure 153. Proposed Cistern & Quarry Container/Node. 225

Figure 154. Concentric Space Use in Nodes. 226

Figure 155. Node Site Plan. 226

Figure 156. Market / Event Space / Emergency Food Centre Requirements 227

Figure 157. Potential Relationships Between Nodes. 227

Figure 158. Different Types of Lines. 228

xv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS & DEDICATION

It has been just shy of ten years since my first explorations in architecture began in my undergraduate studies. During that time, I have had the opportunity to work with and be inspired by some amazingly talented people. I have also been fortunate to have the unwavering support of my close friends and family. It is to all of you that I dedicate my current explorations!

I want to thank my commitee of Ray Cole, Kees Lockman, Tony Osborn and Matthew Soules for their time, valuable input and enthusiasm towards my thesis. Their interest resulted in inspir-ing committee metings that always extended long past the time we had alotted for them.

This thesis would also not have been possible without the support of my friends and family with whom I spent long hours discussing the project; who helped to produce the final drawings and renderings; and who proofread my writing. Thankyou to Mamoud Bakayoko, Roy Cloutier, Jason Heinrich, Sue Mcken-zie, Sally Miller, Kathleen Narbonne, and Len Ring

Acknowledgements & Dedication

1Thesis Statement

THESIS STATEMENT

As the implications of sea level rise begin to force human popula-tions to migrate to higher elevations, new infrastructures can be designed and constructed to meet current needs, while also providing projective agency capable of assisting in the aftermath of extreme weather events and as polyvalent spines for new set-tlement patterns when populations and individuals choose to migrate.

3Field of Inquiry

FIELD OF INQUIRY

Around the world human settlements are facing increasing pres-sures from anthropogenic climate change. In the least affected locations, changes are slowly taking place to mitigate human contributions to climate change; however, for those who are most affected by climate change, mitigation alone is not an option. Pressures such as prolonged droughts, rising sea levels and increases in extreme weather threaten their way of life, their culture and their homes. For these people there is no choice but to face the very real implications of climate change that have already begun to affect them.

Even if we were to imagine that it is possible for humans to stabilize the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earths atmosphere today, a Herculean task that would require all emis-sions to cease, the effects of the contributions we have already made will continue. The time scale of climate change will cause global temperatures and sea levels to continue to rise for centu-ries as they catch up with current greenhouse gas concentrations.

In the case of sea level rise, the changes are likely to affect hundreds of millions, if not over a billion, people globally. Based on 2000 population numbers, sea level rise of one to ten metres could impact between 56 and 634 million people globally. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast between 1.2 and 1.5 metres of global mean sea level rise by the end of the century and are for the most likely scenario not the worst case scenario. These projections are con-sidered low by many scientists and are based on unknowns about

4 Field of Inquiry

how fast the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting. Combined, these two ice sheets have the potential to contribute around seventy metres to sea level rise with several metres consid-ered a possibility by the end of the century. On top of this, the rate of sea level rise is expected to vary by location; areas in the Pacific Ocean are currently experiencing rates of rise up to four times the global average.

As lowland populations become exposed to sea level rise, high levels of embodied value, culture and density in some urban locations may justify the mass engineering projects and budgets required to protect them. However, for large portions of the population there will be little choice but to migrate to higher elevations.

The vast majority of those who will be affected by sea level rise live in large mainland coastal cities; however, the locations which will be hit first and hardest are small island nations. With little to no higher ground to which to migrate within their countries, these islands are left with two choices, to migrate to a new country or to adapt their way of life to a drastically different environment using the minimal resources available to them.

In 2014, New Zealand accepted what many consider to be the first climate refugees from the island of Tuvalu; Kiribati reportedly began the process of searching for property in Fiji for future relocation; and the Maldives began to design artificial islands. Although these and some other small island nations will likely be forced to migrate elsewhere, many island nations may be able to remain. However, they will be forced to change the locations of their large lowland coastal populations and the way they inhabit their shrinking islands.

Polyvalent Adaptations proposes the use of infrastructure as a framework to guide the process of regional migration caused by sea level rise. The infrastructure design is intended to be re-interpreted through time, firstly as a resource and service system to support current needs, secondly as an emergency cache to provide support in the aftermath of extreme weather events, and thirdly as a future spine and magnet for new settlement patterns.

Because of their varying interpretations these infrastructures can assist in all stages of migration without forcing the process. This allows for the individual or family to move when they are ready, whether they decide to be pro-active, or whether they are waiting to react to sea level rise or extreme weather destruction.

5It is in this vein then that the infrastructures of polyvalent adaptation can act to guide, support and adapt to the process of human migration caused by sea level rise.

As a collection of islands that range from active volcanoes to atolls and as one of the countries most exposed to sea level rise, Tonga will be used for the explorations in this thesis as a testing ground for how such infrastructures might be designed to work with the intricacies of a specific culture and location.

Field of Inquiry

7Intent & Position

INTENT & POSITION

With a thesis looking at a foreign country and culture, but being explored by a Canadian-born Caucasian at a university in North America, it is important that I frame the intent and position of the research and design.

Although I am a well-travelled individual, I have never been to a small island nation or to Tonga. Through my research I have created what could be considered a glimpse into the incredible complexities of the beautiful country that is Tonga. As a result of the prevalence of sources being in the English language, this image is likely skewed towards a Western perspective. In order to limit this bias, I have used Tongan documents wherever possible.

This thesis is also being developed in isolation from Tonga and therefore is devoid of direct input from Tongans themselves. Having been involved in design projects in both Canada and Kenya that have had a high level of consultation and involve-ment from the local communities and individuals, I am aware of the importance of the value that this engagement brings to the success of a project.

However, as a theoretical exploration, this project is attempting to test an idea and expand our imaginations using Tonga as a means to do so.

I have developed and pursued this thesis with the best of intentions to further the global discussions about how to respond to the high-risk future implications of sea level rise.

9Introduction 11

Natural Causes of Sea Level Rise

Geological Processes 12Geomorphological Processes 14Climate Processes 14

Human Contributions to Sea Level Rise

Climate Contributions 15Geomorphological Contributions 16

Thermal Changes

Thermal Projections 18Impact on the Natural Environment 18Impact on Human Populations 18

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Projections 19Impact on the Natural Environment 22Impact on Human Populations 24

Increase in Extreme Weather Intensity and Frequency

Extreme Weather Projections 26Impact on the Natural Environment 28Impact on Human Populations 28

Human Actions to Increase Exposure to Sea Level Rise 31

Mitigation 34

Conclusion 34

SEA LEVEL RISE

11Sea Level Rise

SEA LEVEL RISE

Introduction

Climate change is currently, and will continue to be, one of the greatest challenges facing human populations for centuries. Its effects range from changes in species migration, resource produc-tion and fresh water supplies to increases in extreme weather, droughts, rising temperatures and rising sea levels.

As one of the major consequences of climate change, sea level rise will have drastic effects on human populations, ways of life and settlement patterns. Large portions of the human population and much of the worlds most productive farmland are located in lowland areas by the sea, therefore the inevitable future loss of land area is of significant concern. In addition to the obvious direct impacts of sea level rise, there will also be indirect impacts as sea level rise exacerbates many of the other consequences of climate change.

It is important to understand that sea level rise is both a global and regional phenomenon. Although regional sea level rise is related to changes in the mean global sea level, there are many factors that can influence a specific region to have more or less rise than the global mean. This causes some areas to be more at risk than others.

In order to develop approaches to respond to the repercus-sions of sea level rise, we must understand its causes, human contributions to these causes, their impacts, and the actions we are taking or have already taken to reduce or increase our

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized - Susmita Dasgupta, 2014

Fig 1. Franz Joseph Glacier, New Zealand.

Sea Level Rise12

exposure to those repercussions.

Natural Causes of Sea Level Rise

Society has often erred by assuming that sea levels and coastlines are stable, or at least that they are changing at time scales that are imperceptible to human populations. This general assumption has led to the settlement of shorelines and lowland areas around the world. Right now we are in the middle of an interglacial period of natural mean sea level rise as the planet warms.

In the last interglacial period, it is estimated that the average temperature on earth rose to three to five degrees Celsius warmer than temperatures today, resulting in a mean sea level more than six metres above the current level.1 Signs of these historically high sea levels can be seen in erosion lines high up on seaside cliffs, salt water fossils hundreds of kilometres from the oceans edge, and in raised limestone islands that at one time were atolls barely above sea level.

The natural processes that have historically caused and con-tinue to cause changes in mean and relative sea level are geologi-cal, geomorphological and climate-related.

Resulting from both quick events and slow tectonic changes, geological processes affect the position of land in relation to water.

Sudden-onset events such as volcanic eruptions and earth-quakes can cause quite drastic changes to coastal environments. The Wairarapa earthquake of 1855 near Wellington, New Zea-land caused large areas of land to uplift in the harbour. Much of the citys business sector and suburbs now occupy these lands.2 Volcanic eruptions can also create new landforms, as in the recent eruption near Tonga, which deposited geological materials and created a new island.3

Slower geological processes are generally related to the movement of tectonic plates over extended periods of time. Tectonic plates are in constant flux and often move in relation to the plates around them. In the last ice age, the weight of the ice on the northern continents caused the plates to subside. In the current interglacial period, the warming planet is melting much of this ice, and as a result the plates are rebounding. Relative sea

Fig 2. Extent of New Land Created in Wellington, New Zealand by the Wairarapa Earth-quake in 1855.

Geological Processes

Fig 3. New Vol-canic Island Formed in 2015 Near Tonga.

13Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise14

level rise in these areas is generally slower than the global mean.4 At a pace slightly more noticeable than tectonic plate movement, ongoing erosion and settling of sediments are geomorphologi-cal processes that shape landforms. Erosion is the continual breaking down of rock and other debris into ever smaller and smaller particles followed by their movement towards and into the ocean.

Erosion is caused by heat, water, wind, freezing/thawing, chemical and mechanical processes. It supplies beaches, lowlands and deltas with new material. As this material builds up, it raises the level of the land relative to the sea. These sediments also protect the shoreline from wave action erosion. Although society has generally considered shoreline positions to be static, recent studies have found that the extent to which erosion changes coastlines is significant.5

A certain level of global warming occurs naturally as a result of climate processes. Changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere such as a build-up of greenhouse gases traps heat from the sun in Earths atmosphere. Chemical contributors to

Geomorphological Processes

Climate Processes

15Sea Level Rise

the atmosphere include decomposing organic matter, carbon from thawing permafrost, and chemicals released during volcanic eruptions and fires. As the planet warms, the volume of existing water in the worlds oceans expands causing mean sea level to rise. In addition to this expansion, the amount of water in the oceans increases as land-bound ice sheets melt leading to further sea level rise. Increased cloud cover created as the earth warms also contributes to additional global warming since water vapour is a greenhouse gas.6

Human Contributions to Sea Level Rise

Since the beginning of the anthropocene era, humans have increasingly contributed to relative and mean sea level rise. Our current contributions speed up global warming and influence geomorphological processes. Since human contributions to cli-mate change are additional to natural processes, it is difficult to decipher to what degree our activities are affecting sea level rise. There is general consensus, however, that the significant increase in the speed of global warming is resulting from human activity.7

There are two key ways that humans are contributing to climate change, through greenhouse gas emissions and through the destruction of natural carbon sinks which sequester carbon. Both contributions increase the greenhouse gases in the atmos-phere causing additional heat to be trapped which then causes the temperature of the planet to rise.

Our transport, construction, manufacturing, electricity and agriculture rely on carbon-based energy sources to function. The resulting carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is the big-gest contribution to our greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to our emissions, we are releasing carbon dioxide into the atmos-phere through the destruction of carbon sinks. Carbon sinks are natural environments that absorb and store carbon dioxide. Deforestation, coal mining, oil and natural gas extraction, and the thaw of permafrost all destroy or inhibit the capacity of these environments to store carbon or other greenhouse gases.

Although there is a global understanding that we need to reduce our greenhouse gas contributions, our difficulty in doing

Climate Contributions

Fig 4. Impacts of Coastal Erosion in Eita, Kiribati.

Sea Level Rise16

so is well-documented. With good intentions but little action in this area, it is difficult to predict the amount of greenhouse gas emissions we will release into the atmosphere in the future. It is also tough to estimate the effects these future contributions will have on climate change. It is generally understood, how-ever, that even with a stabilization or eradication of our green-house gas emissions, sea levels will continue to rise for centuries as they catch up to global temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations.8

Humans have also had impacts on natural geomorphological processes which affect relative sea levels. The extraction of liq-uids from the ground and reduction in its replenishment has led to localized land subsidence. The two main liquids extracted are water and fossil fuels. The latter is nearly impossible to replen-ish while water is replenished as part of the natural hydrological cycle. Constructed artificial drainage decreases the replenish-ment of ground water and also contributes to increased subsid-ence rates.9

Beaches, mangrove swamps, sea grass and coral reefs are all natural barriers protecting coasts from erosion. Human activities are causing damage to all of them. Beach aggregate mining10 and sandbar dredging11 harvest sand to supply materials for construction and landscaping, and to replenish beaches in other locations. Sea grass and mangrove swamps are often destroyed for land reclamation projects or for the harvesting of mangrove bark for use in tapa cloth.12 Coral reefs are being destroyed by destructive fishing techniques, tourism, pollution and ocean acidification.

The location of coasts and their ecosystems are in constant flux due to natural geomorphological processes, however many of our coastal developments are constructed with the idea that coasts maintain a permanent location. As a result, physical man-made barriers such as sea walls are constructed to maintain the location of the coast. These barriers inhibit the natural migra-tion of beaches and ecosystems and can cause them to become squeezed between the ocean and the barrier, often resulting in their disappearance. For those that do survive, human barriers also disrupt the natural replenishment of coastal sediments lead-ing to sediment starvation.14

Fig 5. Deforesta-tion in Indonesia to Grow Red Palm Trees.

Geomorphological Contributions

Fig 6. Illegal Sand Mining in India.

17Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise18

Thermal Changes

By the end of this century, the mean global surface temperature is projected to increase by anywhere from one to four degrees Celsius.15 Over the past century and a half, mean ocean tem-peratures have paralleled the increases in global surface tempera-tures, leading to ocean temperatures which are a degree higher. This is a trend that is expected to continue.16 Warming oceans result in increasing acidity of ocean water. In 1950, global ocean surface pH was 8.15, by 2014 it had dropped to 8.1, and by the end of the century it is projected to drop to between 8.05 and 7.75.17 The biggest factor in how much global temperatures will rise is our ability to stabilize and/or reduce our carbon emissions.

Changes in global temperature affect sea level rise in a variety of ways. The main effect is the increased melting of the worlds land-bound icecaps and glaciers. This leads to an increase in the quantity of water in the ocean as well as an increase in its volume.

There are also indirect ways in which global warming influ-ences sea level rise. Thawing of the permafrost and fires caused by rising temperatures release stored carbon and methane into the atmosphere. Increasing droughts and intense rain events can reduce the effectiveness of plants in removing carbon from the atmosphere by slowing their growth, and therefore causing a reduction in the speed at which carbon sinks are created.

Changes to the chemistry and temperature of oceans are also affecting coral reefs by increasing coral bleaching and decreasing coral calcification.

Thermal changes are also causing reduction of and migra-tion of flora and fauna. Warmer temperatures and changing rain patterns are making the growth of some plants, trees and animals difficult and are having negative effects on spawning fish.19 Along with plants, ocean and land species are also slowly migrat-ing north and south, following the temperatures which they need for survival.20

In addition to sea level rise, discussed in the next section, global temperature changes have various implications for human settle-ments and ways of life. Increasing rain intensity21 and droughts can have major consequences for agricultural production and

Thermal Projections

Impact on the Natural Environment

Impact on Human Populations

19Sea Level Rise

the types of plants that can be grown. They also create larger volumes of water runoff, which is not absorbed easily into the dry ground. This leads to a reduction in the replenishment of groundwater water, and increases erosion and flooding, leading to increased destruction of property.

Die-off and slowed growth of coral reefs reduce the natural coastal protection of the land from wave action and extreme weather events. In the case of atoll islands, reduced coral growth also inhibits the ability of the atoll to keep up with changes in sea level.22

Damage to coral reefs and migrating fish stocks are also having an effect on food supplies and livelihoods in areas that depend on the sea for sustenance and for their economy. In addition to damage to land and sea food resources, tourism, which is a major source of income for many coastal regions, is also affected by thermal changes. The decline of coral reefs and damage caused to coastal ecosystems negatively affects the incredible visuals which are relied upon to attract tourists.

Sea Level Rise

The rate at which mean sea level is rising has been increasing

Fig 7. Aerial View of Mal City in the Maldives.

Sea Level Projections

Sea Level Rise20

steadily. As a base point for comparison with current rates, over the past three thousand years mean sea level rise averaged only 0.1 to 0.2 millimetres per year. Over the past one hundred years, the average has been 1.7 millimetres per year, 2.0 millimetres per year since 1971 and 3.2 millimetres per year since 1993.23 It is important to note that these numbers are for the mean sea level rise globally, however sea level rise in some areas, and in the Pacific regions in particular, has been recorded at up to four times these rates.24 These increased rates are expected to level out over time, however, how long this will take is unknown.

There are several main contributors to mean sea level rise, of which land ice loss and ocean thermal expansion account for the vast majority of the rise. Based on data collected from 1993-2010, ocean thermal expansion accounts for 38.7 percent, glacial melt 26.8 percent, land water storage extraction 13.4 percent, Greenland ice sheet melt 11.6 percent, and Antarctic ice sheet melt 9.5 percent of current mean sea level rise.25

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that mean sea level will rise by between half a metre and a metre by the end of the century, with the possibility of ice sheets contributing several additional tenths of a metre.26 Based on this information, sea level is likely to be somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5 metres above current levels by the year 2100. The IPCC, however, has a mandate to provide the most likely sce-narios for which there is scientific consensus, and there are many scientists who believe their projections are too low. Difficulties in modelling Antarctic melt, Greenland melt, and the effects of thermal expansion lead some scientists to nearly double these rates, bringing sea level rise to more than two metres by centurys end.27

There is also the potential of crossing a threshold which could drastically speed up ice flow changes, contributing further to the speed of melting, through phenomenon such as an albedo flip. These could dramatically increase the speed at which the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets melt. If this were to hap-pen, several metres of sea level rise could be possible by 2100, as these two ice sheets alone hold enough water to raise sea levels by approximately seventy metres.28 During the last interglacial period where temperatures were three to five degrees Celsius warmer than they are today, that is, temperatures equal to the IPCC projections for global surface temperatures by 2100, sea

21Sea Level Rise

Table 1. Historic and Projected Carbon Emissions Based on Most Likely Scenarios.31

Table 2. Historic and Projected Sea Level Rise Based on Most Likely Scenarios.32

1850

-200

0

200

Sea

Leve

l (m

m)

Year

projected

projected

historic

historic

400

600

800

1000

1200

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

1850

-5

0

5Car

bon

Emiss

ions

(bill

ion

tons

)

Year

10

15

20

25

30

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

1850

-200

0

200

Sea

Leve

l (m

m)

Year

projected

projected

historic

historic

400

600

800

1000

1200

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

1850

-5

0

5Car

bon

Emiss

ions

(bill

ion

tons

)

Year

10

15

20

25

30

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

Sea Level Rise22

equator

level was more than six metres higher than it is today.29

Even with so much uncertainty, there are two points that the scientific community agrees upon. The first is that over the past several decades, sea level rise has consistently been faster than predicted.30 The second is that sea level rise is expected to continue for several centuries even if greenhouse gases are stabilized. The Dutch have taken both of these into account and are already designing for between four and five metres of sea level rise. It will be important to take these two factors into account, as well as regional factors influencing mean sea level rise, when predicting relative sea level rise in a particular location.

The most obvious result of sea level rise is flooding and inunda-tion leading to the destruction and loss of land. Much of the worlds most fertile land is located in coastal areas and in river deltas less than five metres above sea level.

For lowland coastal areas, a tipping point occurs when the surface elevation of a coastal ecosystem does not keep pace with sea level ... When this tipping point occurs, the coastal ecosystem


23Sea Level Rise

can be rapidly reduced (by flooding) to a point where it is a narrow fringe or lost.33 Human-constructed infrastructure and architecture built in lowlands further disrupts the natural processes of sedimentation and exacerbates this process. The resulting sediment starvation hinders the ability of lowlands to keep up with sea level rise.

Higher sea level also has implications for land that is not lost. As discussed in a later section, the higher base point for storm surges, tsunamis and extreme weather events increases the reach and damage of these events. In addition to the physi-cal damage, salt from sea water infiltrating the ground destroys ecosystems, contaminates the soil, and makes groundwater and aquifers saline.34

Coastal ecosystems, which play important roles in regional livelihoods, biodiversity, and protecting coasts from erosion, are also highly susceptible to sea level rise. Historically, sea grass, mangrove swamps and coral reefs have all demonstrated their ability to keep pace with natural sea level rise. Coral grows upon itself, and therefore can continually grow up. Sea grass

equator

Fig 8. Estimated Land Inundation with Six Metres of Sea Level Rise37

Sea Level Rise24

1m SLR would eect 56 million people (roughly the population of South Africa)

2m SLR would eect 187 million people (roughly the population of Germany, France and Spain combined)

10m sea level rise would eect 635 million people (roughly the population of the United States, Mexico and Brazil combined)

equator

and mangrove swamps on the other hand rely on their own organic matter and eroded sediment from the land to ensure that the water stays shallow enough for their growth.35 It is unknown whether these ecosystems can keep up with the rate of human-caused sea level rise, especially with the added pres-sures of pollution, sediment starvation, ocean acidification and human destruction.36 With reduced protection from erosion and a higher base point for waves and storms, the fertile soils of lowlands and future coastal areas are also at risk of being eroded away.

Due to the fact that large portions of the worlds population live in lowlands adjacent to the worlds oceans, even modest sea level rise will have major repercussions globally. A one-metre rise in sea level is expected to impact 56 million people and will likely cause several small island nations, such as Tuvalu and the Maldives, to be uninhabitable. A two-metre rise would have major impacts on an estimated 187 million people, while five metres would affect approximately 250 million. An estimated


25Sea Level Rise

Fig 9. Representa-tion of Amount of Population Affected by One, Two and Ten Metres of Sea Level Rise

1m SLR would eect 56 million people (roughly the population of South Africa)

2m SLR would eect 187 million people (roughly the population of Germany, France and Spain combined)

10m sea level rise would eect 635 million people (roughly the population of the United States, Mexico and Brazil combined)

equator

634 million people live within ten metres of current sea level.3

These estimates were calculated using early twenty-first century population figures, however lowland populations are expected to continue to grow due to birthrates and migration.39 By the mid-dle and the end of the century the number of people affected by sea level rise will likely be much higher.

The impacts of sea level rise for those affected are: loss or damage to physical property and infrastructure; loss or damage to natural ecosystems; and a reduction in land area. Each of these has resulting social, cultural and financial consequences attached to them.

Damage to physical property and infrastructure occurs as coastal lowlands become permanently covered by water. Build-ings, utilities, personal artifacts, constructed cultural assets, roads, docks and man-made coastal protection would all be impacted. In the case of infrastructures that protect against sea level rise, their function may become obsolete as sea level rises above their design level.

Loss of coastal ecosystems, wet or dry, will lead to a decline

Sea Level Rise26

Fig 10. Reduc-tion in Shoreline Protection.

Weather Projections

Fig 11. Physi-cal Damage from Sea Level Rise and Extreme Weather.

in biodiversity and a reduction of renewable resources such as fish stocks. This would have effects on local sustenance, econo-mies and tourism.40 Damage to these ecosystems also reduces the protection they provide against extreme weather events.

The most obvious outcome from rising sea levels is the reduction of land area. For some countries land loss will be significant, while others, such as the Maldives, may disappear completely. Coinciding with land loss is a reduction in renew-able and nonrenewable resources, such as fresh water, quarried materials and agricultural-quality soil.

As large portions of the population typically have physical, financial, cultural and social investments tied up in their land and property, the web of consequences of sea level rise are sub-stantial. Confrontations over land,42 increased costs and reduced incomes causing financial stress for governments and citizens, scarcity of regional resources to support existing populations, and loss of livelihood, way of life and cultural practices will likely become the norm. In addition to the impact the loss and reduction of natural protective barriers has on extreme weather events, sea level rise also provides a higher starting point for these events. These impacts are discussed in the following section.

Increase in Extreme Weather Intensity and Frequency

Extreme weather events such as droughts, storm swells, tsunamis, heavy rain and tropical cyclones are all expected to increase in intensity and in frequency. These changes are directly related to the increase in global surface temperature. Warmer air can retain more moisture, which upon release causes an increase in rainfall. Warmer ocean surface temperatures have been correlated to more intense cyclones, higher storm surges, and changing wind speeds and directions.43

The largest storm surge on record took place in Australia in 1899 and was almost thirteen metres high.44 The storm surge that hit New Orleans in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have been around eight metres high, which is the same height as the storm surge that hit the tropical island nation of Vanuatu in 2015. Wind speeds, however, are predicted to increase by three to five percent for each degree Celsius of global

27Sea Level Rise

future sea level & storm surge

existing sea level & storm surge

sea grass

coral reef

mangrove

agricultural land

coastal trees

freshwater lens

buildings and infrastructure

raised sea level

historic sea level

loss of sea grass

damage to and reduction in growth

of coral reef

loss of mangroves

damaged agricultural

landdamaged and lost coastal

trees

reduced and salinated freshwater

lens

damage and loss of buildings and infrastructure

Sea Level Rise28

temperature rise,45 leading to between two and eleven percent increase in the intensity of cyclone storms and their resulting storm surges.46

Rainfall volumes are projected to increase or decrease depending on the location. Areas such as the Caribbean are expected to have a decrease of five to six percent by the end of the century while the Pacific is expected to have an increase of one to nine percent. Regardless of wether there is an increase or decrease in volume, rain patterns are already starting to change, and are expected to continue to do so.47

What we consider today to be one-hundred-year floods will be much more frequent in the future. One study has predicted that what we currently believe to be one hundred-year floods, would likely happen every five years with 350 millimetres of sea level rise, and every year with one metre of sea level rise.48

Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather combined with a higher sea level base point and reduced coastal protection, previously discussed, will have major impacts on coastal areas. Surface runoff will increase and high storm surges will have the potential to flood and erode large areas of land previously not impacted by these types of events. In addition to short-term physical damage, sea water inundation also results in soil and groundwater salination which can destroy ecosystems that may have survived the initial forces of an extreme weather event.49

Changes in rainfall patterns are also impacting or eliminat-ing the reproductive success of some species as their breeding times no longer correspond with rain and peak food abun-dance.50 Combined with the destruction of natural ecosystems and habitat due to human pressures, sea level rise, changing climates and extreme weather are contributing to a reduction in biodiversity.

Many of the worst impacts of sea level rise on human popula-tions are from the degree to which it exposes people and the environments that support them to worsening extreme weather events. These events can be catastrophic, instantly exacerbating existing problems while creating new ones through loss of life and the destruction of physical property.

With the destruction of physical property comes the likely loss of: stored food, water, and energy supplies, personal

Fig 12. New Jersey Shore Before Hur-ricane Sandy.


Fig 13. New Jersey Shore After Hur-ricane Sandy.


29Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise30

belongings, items required to maintain livelihoods, and cul-tural assets. In addition, flooding, erosion and a reduction in biodiversity can lead to loss or damage to the marine ecosystems, land ecosystems, aquaculture and agriculture which support the sustenance and culture of coastal communities.

Initial storm damage causes human injury and death. In the long term, a reduction in health resources, contamination of water supplies, and loss of food supplies can lead to malnutrition and increased transmission of diseases such as malaria, dengue, filariasis and schistosomiasis.52 In poorer, tourism dependent countries, water and food shortages are often worsened as avail-able resources are used for tourist needs first.53

The financial losses and costs associated with extreme weather events are also severe. Immediate reconstruction and repair of infrastructures and buildings is often in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. These costs would be a financial burden for individuals and jurisdictions in the best of times, let alone by an economy that has been drastically reduced due to storm damage.

The problems caused by extreme weather events for a population are further exacerbated by damage to soft and hard infrastructures. Infrastructure provides resource flows, mobility and communication, all of which are important for the function-ing of society.

Without a dramatic change in how we inhabit coastal areas, the impacts of extreme weather events will continue to get worse and will lead to temporary or permanent dislocation of many coastal populations.

Human Actions That Increase Exposure to Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise and extreme weather events themselves are issues to which humans must respond due to our own historic short-sighted choices and settlement patterns. For centuries, humans have inhabited coastal and lowland areas due to their proximity to marine ecosystems and fertile soils. As a result, a large portion of our urban and rural populations today are on the coast or on river deltas. These are the first places to be effected by sea level rise.

Over the past century, population growth, financial and

31Sea Level Rise

educational demands as well as globalization pressures have caused and continue to cause increasing human exposure to the hazards of sea level rise. Rising population numbers in coastal growth centres represent a trend that is fed by internal rural to urban migration and by immigration from other countries.54

The high demand for land close to these growth centres combined with low incomes and a lack of knowledge about cli-mate change is resulting in the habitation of ever lower and more exposed locations. These locations include steep mountainsides, swamplands and inappropriate shorelines. The construction techniques used in these locations are often not suitable to with-stand sea level rise or extreme weather.55

Loss of local resources due to sea level rise and extreme weather damage is made worse by the vulnerability of economies to global markets and tourism, both of which tend to fluctuate. Tourism also creates increased pressure on the limited regional resources, diverting them away from the locals.56

Fig 14. Erosion Damage in the Solomon Islands.

Sea Level Rise32

GEOLOGICAL PROCESSES

NATURAL CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

KEY CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENT

PHYSICAL SYMPTOMS

IMPACTS

BARRIERS

MITIGATION

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

HUMAN ACTIONS TO IN-CREASE EXPOSURE TO CLI-

MATE CHANGE

GEOMORPHOLOGICAL PROCESSES

CLIMATEPROCESSES

CLIMATE CONTRIBUTIONS

GEOLOGICALCONTRIBUTIONS

Natural Vertical Movement of Plates

Increase in Air Temperature

Limited Access to Technological Resources

Increase in Coral Bleaching

Increase in Extreme Weather Intensity + Frequency (+ Starting base point)

Change in Precipitation Patterns and Quantities

Reduced Reproductive Success in Animals (timing and peak

food/water)

Increase of ooding

Loss and Change of Coastal Wetlands (Mangrove + Sea

Grass)

Increase in Coastal Erosion and Accretion (movement)

Reduction in Sedimentation (Mangrove, Sea Grass + Sand)

Upward oating of Freshwater lense

Worsening of Droughts, Tropi-cal Cyclones, Storm Swells and

Tsunami

Decrease in Tourism (Visuals and Extreme Weather)

Decrease in Coral Calci cation

Reduction in Fishing and its way of life.

Declining Fish Stocks Reduced Protection from Extreme Weather + Erosion

Shortage of Fresh Water Supply

Deterioration of freshWater Quality

Increase in Storm Surge Height

Increased Property Damage (Buildings, Infrastructure, Pub-

lic Facilities)

Damage and loss of Aquaculture


Increase of Financial Costs

Decreases in GDP due to cli-mate sensitive Economy

Increased Health Risks (Death + Injuries)

Damage or Loss of Cultural Assets

Increase in disease Transmission

Damage to Ecosystems

Declining Biodiversity

Reduction and loss of agricul-tural productivity + area

Reduced Area of Island

Increased confrontation Related to land rights

Statelessness (various issues)

Salination of fresh water Aquifers and lenses

Salination of Soils

Limited Human Resource Capacity

High Financial Costs

Financial Polarization

Cultural, Ethical and Social Ac-ceptability

Political Framework Uncertainty

Political and Climate Term Mismatches

Lack of Local Awareness

Precision and Resolution of Data

Maintaining Con dence in Island

Lack of Economies of Scale

Legal Barriers to Migration

Statelessness

Increase in Water Temperature

Rise in Sea Level

Acidi cation of the Ocean

Ongoing Erosion by Elements

Low Land Subsidence (Compression)

Global Warming or Cooling(Natural)

Global Warming (GHG Emissions)

Migration to Vulnerable Coastal Locations

Reduction of GHG

Population Growth

Financial Pressures

Lack of Knowledge

Extraction of In-ground Liquids

Beach Aggregate Mining and Beach Nourishment

Human Protective Barriers (Per-manent)

Damage to Coral Reefs

Tourism (Pressure on Resources)

Destruction of Carbon Sinks (Deforestation, Etc...)

Low Land Subsidence (Arti cial Drainage,+ Pumping of Liquids)

Isostatic Rebound from Melting Ice

Sudden Onset Events (Volcanoes + Earthquakes)

33Sea Level Rise

GEOLOGICAL PROCESSES

NATURAL CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

KEY CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENT

PHYSICAL SYMPTOMS

IMPACTS

BARRIERS

MITIGATION

HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

HUMAN ACTIONS TO IN-CREASE EXPOSURE TO CLI-

MATE CHANGE

GEOMORPHOLOGICAL PROCESSES

CLIMATEPROCESSES

CLIMATE CONTRIBUTIONS

GEOLOGICALCONTRIBUTIONS

Natural Vertical Movement of Plates

Increase in Air Temperature

Limited Access to Technological Resources

Increase in Coral Bleaching

Increase in Extreme Weather Intensity + Frequency (+ Starting base point)

Change in Precipitation Patterns and Quantities

Reduced Reproductive Success in Animals (timing and peak

food/water)

Increase of ooding

Loss and Change of Coastal Wetlands (Mangrove + Sea

Grass)

Increase in Coastal Erosion and Accretion (movement)

Reduction in Sedimentation (Mangrove, Sea Grass + Sand)

Upward oating of Freshwater lense

Worsening of Droughts, Tropi-cal Cyclones, Storm Swells and

Tsunami

Decrease in Tourism (Visuals and Extreme Weather)

Decrease in Coral Calci cation

Reduction in Fishing and its way of life.

Declining Fish Stocks Reduced Protection from Extreme Weather + Erosion

Shortage of Fresh Water Supply

Deterioration of freshWater Quality

Increase in Storm Surge Height

Increased Property Damage (Buildings, Infrastructure, Pub-

lic Facilities)



Increase of Financial Costs

Decreases in GDP due to cli-mate sensitive Economy

Increased Health Risks (Death + Injuries)

Damage or Loss of Cultural Assets

Increase in disease Transmission

Damage to Ecosystems

Declining Biodiversity

Reduction and loss of agricul-tural productivity + area

Reduced Area of Island

Increased confrontation Related to land rights

Statelessness (various issues)

Salination of fresh water Aquifers and lenses

Salination of Soils

Limited Human Resource Capacity

High Financial Costs

Financial Polarization

Cultural, Ethical and Social Ac-ceptability

Political Framework Uncertainty

Political and Climate Term Mismatches

Lack of Local Awareness

Precision and Resolution of Data

Maintaining Con dence in Island

Lack of Economies of Scale

Legal Barriers to Migration

Statelessness

Increase in Water Temperature

Rise in Sea Level

Acidi cation of the Ocean

Ongoing Erosion by Elements

Low Land Subsidence (Compression)

Global Warming or Cooling(Natural)

Global Warming (GHG Emissions)

Migration to Vulnerable Coastal Locations

Reduction of GHG

Population Growth

Financial Pressures

Lack of Knowledge

Extraction of In-ground Liquids

Beach Aggregate Mining and Beach Nourishment

Human Protective Barriers (Per-manent)

Damage to Coral Reefs

Tourism (Pressure on Resources)

Destruction of Carbon Sinks (Deforestation, Etc...)

Low Land Subsidence (Arti cial Drainage,+ Pumping of Liquids)

Isostatic Rebound from Melting Ice

Sudden Onset Events (Volcanoes + Earthquakes)

Fig 15. Causes and Implications of and Exposure and Barriers to Sea Level Rise and Climate Change for Coastal Settlements.

Sea Level Rise34

Mitigation

Steps are being taken globally to reduce human contributions to climate change and the resulting sea level rise. However, even if human greenhouse gas emissions were to be completely halted, sea level rise and increasing extreme weather are projected to continue. Sea level rise lags behind the current global tempera-ture increases and will continue for several centuries before it has caught up.57 What this means is that although mitigation is important in reducing the amount and speed of sea level rise, we must accept that coastal areas will be facing the implications of sea level rise for centuries to come.

Conclusion

As Hunt Janin projects, the long range outlook, is that the irre-sistible momentum of sea level rise will increasingly conflict with human development patterns and plans for the future.58 With sea levels projected to rise by at least a metre by the end of the century, and with the increasing magnitude of the repercussions this has for human populations around the globe, it is becoming more and more apparent that we need to change how we inhabit coastal areas. As the devastation caused by disasters such as Hur-ricane Katrina have demonstrated, the human, environmental, financial, cultural and social costs of sea level rise and climate change can be catastrophic.

An event such as Hurricane Katrina does not have to be catastrophic, since catastrophes are a direct result of the vulner-able situations that we put ourselves into. If we designed our coastal settlements to be less vulnerable to sea level rise, then catastrophic events may no longer be such. Also, in contrast to the costs related to rebuilding following natural disasters, econo-mists suggest the cost to pro-actively adapt vulnerable coasts to sea level rise is much cheaper. Therefore, designing our cities, towns, infrastructure and architecture to reduce our vulnerability to sea level rise seems like the obvious approach for the future.

35Sea Level Rise

Notes:

1 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 181.

2 3. The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Historic Earthquakes Te Ara Ency-clopedia of New Zealand, accessed April 6, 2015, http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/historic-earthquakes/page-3.

3 Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption Forms New S Pacific Island - BBC News, accessed April 6, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31848255.

4 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges, 181.

5 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 2014, 1620.

6 Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Complete (Canada) Sub-scription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact (Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company, Inc., Publishers, 2012), 15.

7 Ibid., 12.8 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future

Challenges, 182.9 Ibid., 181.10 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, 2014, 1620.11 Luisa Malolo, Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and

Disaster Risk Management 2010-2015 (Tonga: Kingdom of Tonga, 2010), 13.12 Fabrice G. Renaud et al., The Role of Ecosystems in Disaster Risk Reduc-

tion (Shibuya-ku, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2013), 202; N Mimura, Vulnerability of Island Countries in the South Pacific to Sea Level Rise and Climate Change, Climate Research 12 (1999): 13743.

13 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 2014, 1623.

14 Ibid., 1623.15 John Roy Porter, Summary for Policymakers, 2014, 21.16 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future

Challenges, 182.17 John Roy Porter, Summary for Policymakers, 21.18 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, 58.19 Ibid., 1621.20 Matthias von Gunten, Thule Tuvalu, videorecording (Hessegreutert Film and

Odysseefilm, 2014).21 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, 1.22 Ibid., 1621.23 John Roy Porter, Summary for Policymakers, 11.24 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, 1619.25 John Roy Porter, Summary for Policymakers, 11.26 Ibid., 23.27 Susmita Dasgupta and Open Knowledge Repository, Climate Change and Sea

Level Rise A Review of the Scientific Evidence (S.l.: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014), 9-14.

28 Ibid., 10-13.29 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future

Challenges, 181.

36

30 Susmita Dasgupta and Open Knowledge Repository, Climate Change and Sea Level Rise A Review of the Scientific Evidence, 30.

31 Graph based on infromation from Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 94.

32 Ibid., 49.33 Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Complete (Canada)

Subscription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact, 33.

34 Matthias von Gunten, Thule Tuvalu; Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges, 184.

35 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 1621.

36 Ibid.37 Pierre Belanger, Infrastructural Ecologies: Fluid, Biotic, Contingent, in

Landscape Infrastructure: Case Studies by SWA (Basel, Switzerland: Birkhauser, 2013), 23.

38 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges, 185; Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Com-plete (Canada) Subscription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact, 32.

39 Robert McLeman, Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges, 185.


41 Ibid., 1622.42 Ibid., 1625.43 Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Complete (Canada)

Subscription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact, 39-40.

44 Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Complete (Canada) Subscription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact, 40.

45 Susmita Dasgupta and Open Knowledge Repository, Climate Change and Sea Level Rise A Review of the Scientific Evidence, 16.




49 Matthias von Gunten, Thule Tuvalu.50 Christopher B Field et al., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability, 1622.51 Ibid., 1634.52 Ibid., 1624.53 Ibid., 1619.54 Ibid., 1623.55 Ibid., 1623.56 Ibid., 1619.57 Susmita Dasgupta and Open Knowledge Repository, Climate Change and Sea

Level Rise A Review of the Scientific Evidence, 14.58 Hunt Janin, Scott A. Mandia, and Ebrary Academic Complete (Canada)

The Science of Sea Level Rise

37The Science of Sea Level Rise

Subscription Collection, Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact, 37.

39

Introduction 41

Architecture

Agency Through Design 42Architecture as Infrastructure 42

Infrastructure

Hard & Soft Infrastructure 43Infrastructure & Design 43

Temporality

Responsive Infrastructure 45Appropriatable Design 45

Ecology

Defining Ecology 46Ecological Design 46Ecological Feedback 47

Conclusion 48

ARCHITECTURE, INFRASTRUCTURE & ECOLOGY

41Infrastructure, Architecture & Ecology

ARCHITECTURE, INFRASTRUCTURE & ECOLOGY

Introduction

With the certainty of the looming threats of sea level rise, but uncertainty about the extent of these threats or what they mean for how we occupy the planet, the act of proactively designing for sea level rise becomes extremely important. Designs that address sea level rise must find a balance between the large scale of the physical implications and the domestic scale of those affected, as well as a balance between the ability to meet the specifics of immediate needs and maintaining flexibility to meet changing future needs.

Infrastructure, architecture and ecology are all greatly affected by sea level rise, but are also the tools that we must use in addressing sea level rise. The successful use of these tools depends on how each is defined, how each works with the oth-ers, how each may be appropriated to meet changing needs, and the sensitivity with which each is applied to existing social and cultural intricacies.

This section will provide an overview of some of the theoretical discussion around the role and agency that architec-ture, infrastructure and ecology can have and how this might be adapted to address the issues of sea level rise. The conclusion of this section will lay out the theoretical approach to Polyvalent Adaptation.

Fig 16. Qianan Sanlihe Greenway, Hebei Province, China.

Urban infrastructure sows the seeds of future possibility, staging the ground for both uncertainty and promise. The preparation of surfaces for future appropriation differs from merely formal interest in single surface construction. It is more strategic, emphasizing means over ends, and operational logic over compositional design

- James Corner

42 Infrastructure, Architecture and Ecology

Architecture

In the first half of the twentieth century the grand utilitarian, utopian and social architecture and planning of the Modern era responded to contexts that extended well beyond the limits of their sites. Attempting to address a rapidly changing social and technical world, these projects drew from and had implications on issues far beyond their physical reach. Although the success of modern projects can be debated, and rightly so, these projects had a trait that is so often missing from architecture today, agency.

Generally confined by zoning bylaws and property lines, post-modern architecture has dominated the built environment for the past fifty-plus years, with its focus on ornament, form and visual reference. If, as Richard Neutra puts it, design is the cardinal means by which human beings have long tried to mod-ify their natural environment, piecemeal and wholesale,1 why have post-modern architects so often worn blinders to contextual social, economic, cultural and environmental issues?

In recent years, the discussion of agency and disposition in architecture has been rekindled. The firm Lateral Office posits that architecture should be more than appearance and form, that architecture be designed as actors with agency. Their argument looks to the use of the word architecture within the fields of computation and business, where it signifies both organisational complexity and networked wholeness. By grafting this defini-tion onto the architectural profession they believe architecture can be re-integrated into the broader world context. It can respond to and influence social, economic, political, land-use and data systems.2

Jesse LeCavalier and Keller Easterling both argue that architecture requires more agency as well, and look to how architecture can co-opt infrastructure and its disposition and agency.3 In a similar manner, Rem Koolhaas believes that archi-tects need to step out of this amalgamation of good intentions and branding and move in a political direction and a direction of engineering.4

Although infrastructure offers the designer a path to increased agency in the world, is proceeding along that path justifiable, or is this beyond the realm of the architect? Stan Allen argues that

Agency Through Design

Architecture as Infrastructure


although we understand infrastructure as a given necessity, we should be questioning what these infrastructures are.5 How does infrastructure benefit us, how will it evolve as our needs change and how do we as humans relate to infrastructure? These are all questions that could benefit from the engagement of the archi-tect, and as Lateral Office suggests, requires us to look at the roles and challenges of the public realm, civic space, landscape and infrastructure.6

Infrastructure

At its simplest, infrastructure is the basic physical and organi-sational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society.7 Physical infrastructure is commonly referred to as hard infrastructure and includes transportation systems, utilities and communications networks. Organisational infrastructure is oth-erwise known as soft infrastructure and includes infrastructures such as governments, institutions and human capital.

In academia, the definition of infrastructure is expanding. Theorists such as Easterling reference everything from shared standards in construction materials and credit card dimensions to shared ideas that shape policies, physical space and human interactions.8 It is both the traditional and broader definitions which will be explored through this thesis.

Since the implementation of infrastructure has historically focused on its technological and utilitarian aspects the result-ant social and cultural aspects of infrastructure could benefit greatly from increased design attention. LeCavalier suggests that by shifting infrastructure from solely a technical construct to a socio-technical construct infrastructure has the potential to have a longer-lasting and greater impact.9 The addition of socio opens up a realm of design potential for infrastructure that could positively impact culture, economics, the environment and every day human life. With the high costs related to infrastructures, it only makes sense that they provide additional services beyond their initial function.

There appear to be three dominant perspectives on the role architecture and design can play in and as infrastructural pro-jects. All three perspectives can be considered complementary to

Hard & Soft Infrastructure

Infrastructure & Design


each other and could be implemented within the same project. The first perspective looks at infrastructure as a system of

material and information flows, and positions the architectural design at the points of access to these flows.10 In this case, architecture is considered to be the user interface between the medium and the end user and can range from the space for the consumption of water and food, to schools, public space and government buildings.

The second perspective requires the understanding of infra-structure not as a system, but as objects in space. Lateral Office sees the objective elements of infrastructure as conduits, contain-ers and surfaces,11 while others describe them as lines, nodes and planes. As Alexander DHooghe describes it, infrastruc-ture, instead of continuous, breaks up into a sequence of finite moments or bubbles of experience, corresponding to particular spatial-formal configurations.12 By thinking of infrastructure in this way it at once becomes a candidate for additional public amenities, resource production and new cultural artefacts, while demanding the same attention usually reserved for culture and the arts.13 The architecture of the objects of infrastructure will likely be heavily influenced by material and geometry, but have the potential to create new forms of architecture at scales and forms beyond those of a conventional architectural project.14

The final perspective looks at the role of aesthetics in infrastructure. Alexander DHooghe suggests that infrastruc-ture needs to be an authoured system with a human poetic element to it, rather than a purely calculated construction. To DHooghe, both the view from the road and the view of the road are important aspects in the design of infrastructure.15

Temporality

The twentieth century has been dominated by the construction of major infrastructures, from ports, railroads and highways to telephone, internet and cell phone networks to health care, public housing and national parks. Many of these infrastructures are crumbling due to the fact they are outdated, too inflexible and expensive to maintain. As closed systems, their inability to adapt to changing needs and context has hindered them. Open systems on the other hand have been adapted and flexed and


have therefore maintained their relevance.

As change and uncertainty in the world around us speeds up, the understanding of the importance of open systems of infrastruc-ture has increased. Although infrastructure is often and inevi-tably linked to data analysis and technological development, it is important to remember that the design and construction of infrastructure is an anticipatory and projective act. With the impossibility of our predictions ever being fully accurate, we should therefore look at infrastructure as both material objects and as processes.16

Infrastructure should anticipate the inevitability of chang-ing external forces that include the natural environment, climate, society, culture, and financial availability. Infrastructure can respond either through mitigation or opportunism, something that Lateral Office has explored in their designs. Through opportunism, infrastructure has the potential to have agency by cultivating and enhancing ecosystems and local cultures alike.17

Linking contingency to design opens a realm of infrastruc-tural possibilities as both are anticipatory acts. In the nineteen sixties this thinking lead to the founding of the Architecture Machine Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) which began designing a machine that can work with missing information.18 Applied to infrastructure, diversified, overlapping and redundant supplies, flows and connections can lead to more resilient systems with the ability to absorb, mitigate and adjust to both gradual changes and abrupt crises. These changes also include technological innovations and allow for cur-rent and future infrastructures to combine.19

Throughout history, infrastructure has been used as a tool designed to initiate, guide and structure patterns of settlement, with the imposition of infrastructure, landscape becomes colo-nized.20 Stan Allen notes that infrastructure is not only about performance to minimum engineering requirements, but is also about the unpredictable effects it triggers. Infrastructure is an investment into systems that supply and transport resources and information without defining its use or content, allowing flex-ibility in what infrastructure supports.21

Open spaces are flexible in that there is room for almost anything to happen, yet as Koolhaas, Allen and LeCavalier all

Responsive Infrastructure

Appropriatable Design


suggest, without irrigation of the space with potential, its appro-priation becomes difficult. Concentrations of human, resource and information density through the construction of infrastruc-ture can lead to concentrations of creativity, interaction and activity.23 Through the design of infrastructure, designed space can become appropriatable and adaptable to changing needs and external forces.

Ecology

Generally defined, ecology is a branch of biology that deals with the relations of organisms to one another and to their physi-cal surroundings.24 In relation to infrastructure, architecture and design, Allen positions the temporal measure for ecologi-cal adaptation and change somewhere between the millions of years required for geological changes and the minutes, hours and days required for biological changes. This suggests that there is much that can be learned from ecology for use in the design of infrastructure and architecture, but also the potential for increased flows between man-made infrastructures and natural or constructed ecologies.

Ecosystems are complex systems that negotiate hierarchies and scales25 while at the same time being responsive to change. Ecological systems are also open systems with constantly vary-ing inputs and outputs and no respect for either man-made or natural boundaries. For these two characteristics, and the speed at which changes occur, ecologies can be important contribu-tors that are designed into the functioning of infrastructural systems. In the nineteen-thirties, the United States Natural Resource Committee completed a report, titled Regional Factors in National Planning, that suggested this same approach. The report mapped the overlap the likes of national infrastructures, geography, geology, ecosystems, watersheds and soil conditions with administrative jurisdictions. It recommended a rethinking of the extent and relationships of infrastructural systems based on the interactions they may share with ecological, geological and social mapping rather than by jurisdiction.26

In addition to the usual ecologies, Pierre Belanger suggests that we should also be including other occurrences such as sewer

Defining Ecology

Ecological Design


overflow, sediment contamination, invasive flora and fauna, depleted water reserves and seasonal floods as part of the new constructed ecologies to which infrastructure must relate, rather than treating them as unfortunate isolated incidents.27

By including ecology, landscape, geology and geography as essential contributors to designed infrastructure, they can them-selves become infrastructural.28 Where constructed and ecologi-cal infrastructures overlap, meet at transfer points, or relate to their surroundings and to humans, they become important loca-tions for design and are full of potential.29 Due to the inevitabil-ity of change within designed ecological landscapes, landscape architects have taken various approaches to anticipating and/or allowing response to these changes. Chris Reed describes four different approaches that have been taken by ecological designers - analog, hybrid, curated and structured ecologies.30

The design of analog ecologies assumes a level of simplic-ity in ecology and relies generally on if/then statements. An example would be responsive facades such as the hydroskin by Achim Menges which has wooden flaps that open and close as a their material properties respond to changes in humidity. Hybrid ecologies are designed to respond to both human and non-human dynamics such as other ecologies, engineered entities and social interactions. Curated ecologies are designed to receive periodic input from humans to help guide them in a desired direction.31

The final approach by ecological designers described by Reed is structured ecologies. Structured ecologies have a physical scaffolding of conditions which are designed, such as wet/dry, low/high and sheltered/exposed, and into which ecologies are seeded. Over time, the ecologies battle with each other while responding to macro and micro environmental conditions until a level of stability in the ecologies is achieved.32

Every human act of intention is dependant on the biosphere, whether it be for: renewable or nonrenewable resources; biologi-cal, physical and chemical processes; end point processing of waste; or the physical space that we occupy.33 Historically, we have taken these dependencies for granted and our economies have developed based on the destruction of the natural environ-ment. However, as we reach the limit of our exploitation, the economy and natural environment are becoming inseparable.34

Ecological Feedback


We need to embrace the idea that to each act of human intention there is an ecological reaction, for each change in an ecological system there is a re-balancing of the system and a chain reaction of changes in all systems. Just as our infrastruc-ture needs to be responsive to social and cultural changes, it needs to be responsive to the unpredictably of ecological change and the predictability of resource depletion.

Conclusion

The impacts of sea level rise form a complex web of issues for coastal communities which are overlaid on existing needs. By linking architectural responses to these issues to the larger sys-tems of infrastructure and ecology, the architectural design can gain the agency required to play a larger role in tackling the vast array of issues caused by sea level rise.

In a world based mostly on short political terms and living day-to-day to survive, the support of citizens and governments is key to the success of any design proposal. In order to gain this support, projects must combine adaptive solutions to sea level rise with solutions to the current needs of the population while respecting the choices of the individual.

With architecture and ecology playing important roles, the design of new infrastructure has the potential to act as a catalyst to transition from current forms of coastal habitation to ones that are adapted to the inevitability of sea level rise and climate change. This can be achieved by designing a framework of infra-structure that can be interpreted and used differently throughout this process. Here the role of polyvalence in design becomes important to replace the idea of flexibility. While flexible designs are typically neutral containers, devoid of agency or purpose, polyvalent designs can have agency and purpose. Polyvalent designs allow for new uses and meanings based on how

polyvalent adaptations - masters of architecture thesis

Documents