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Population and Household Projections

Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan 2011 - 2026

Contents

Page

1. Introduction 1

2. Background What are Population and Household Projections?

1

3. Limitations of Trend Based Projections 2

4. History of the Vale of Glamorgan Council’s Population Projections 2

5. Welsh Assembly Local Authority Population Projections (2006-based) 2006-based Welsh Government Population Projections – Main

Components of Change – Births, Deaths, Natural Change and Migration.

5

6 6. Overview of the 2006-based Welsh Government Population Projections 11

7. 2006-based Welsh Government Household Projections 12

8. Overview of the 2006-based Welsh Government Household Projections 14

9. Implications of Welsh Government Principal 2006-based LA population/household projections figures for the Vale of Glamorgan

15

10. Welsh Government – 2006-based – Variant Household Projections 15

11. Office of National Statistics (ONS) revision of mid 2002-2008 Year Estimates through Improving Migration and Population Statistics

16

12. Welsh Assembly Local Authority Population Projections (2008-based) 2008-based Welsh Government Population Projections – Main

Components of Change – Births, Deaths, Natural Change and Migration

18

18 13. Overview of the 2008-based Welsh Government Population Projections 22

14. 2008-based Welsh Government Household Projections 22

15. Overview of the 2008-based Welsh Government Household Projections 23

16. Implications of Welsh Government Principal 2008-based LA population/household projections figures for the Vale of Glamorgan

24

17. 2008-based Welsh Government Projections – Variant Projections 25

18. 2008-based Comparison with 2006-based Welsh Government Projections 26

19. Additional Options Tested by Vale of Glamorgan Council. 26



Option 1 – Constraining the model to reflect the latest Mid Year Estimate for 2009 and 2010

27

Option 2 – Constraining the model to reflect an adjusted Vacancy Rate (Census Rate equal 4.41% and by using Council Tax data vacancy rate could be reduced to 3.94%)

28

Option 3 – Constraining the model to consider a 10 Year Average trend of Assumed Migration (net +523)

29

20. Other Options Considered 31

21. Conclusion 32

22. Vale of Glamorgan Council – Proposed Population, Household and Dwelling – LDP Projection 2011 – 2026

34

Appendix A – South East Wales Regional Housing Apportionment – Memorandum of Understanding.

Appendix B – Vale of Glamorgan – Local Development Plan – Draft Preferred Strategy – Extract from duly made responses.

Appendix C – Detailed report produced through PopGroup software - Vale of Glamorgan Council – Components of Population and Household Change - 2006-based - Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Dwellings)

Appendix D – Detailed report produced through PopGroup software - Vale of Glamorgan Council – Components of Population and Household Change - 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Dwellings)

Appendix E (i) – Detailed report produced through PopGroup software - Vale of Glamorgan Council – Components of Population and Household Change – Option 1 – 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections with Mid Year Estimate 2009 & 2010 updated

Appendix E (ii) – Detailed report produced through PopGroup software - Vale of Glamorgan Council – Components of Population and Household Change – Option 2 – 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with MYE & Av Vacancy Rates) updated

Appendix E (iii) – Detailed report produced through PopGroup software - Vale of Glamorgan Council – Components of Population and Household Change – Option 3 – 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with MYE updated & 10 Year Average of Assumed Migration)

Appendix E (iv) – Vale of Glamorgan Council – 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections – Derived/Supply units conversion information

1



1.0 Introduction

1.1 This topic paper is one of a series produced by the Vale of Glamorgan as part of the evidence base for the Deposit Local Development Plan (LDP). Each topic paper can be read in isolation or together to gain a wider understanding of how the policies and/or allocations in the LDP have been developed to address issues facing the Vale of Glamorgan.

1.2 This topic paper considers the requirements for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP in

respect of the amount of housing provision needed to address the Welsh Government Population and Household Projections during the Vale’s LDP period of 2011-2026.

1.3 This topic paper informs the Vale of Glamorgan LDP of the necessary housing

dwelling requirements to manage the population and household forecasts. Further information on the housing land supply for the Vale of Glamorgan is set out in a separate Housing Supply Background Paper.

2.0 Background

What are Population and Household Projections?

2.1 Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population and are based on assumptions of 3 main components:

• births, • deaths and • migration

2.2 The assumptions are based on past trends and only indicate what may happen

should the trend continue.

2.3 Household projections provide estimates of the future number of households. A household is defined by the Welsh Government as one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address with common housekeeping – that is, sharing either a living room, sitting room or at least one meal a day. Whereas a dwelling can consist of one household space (an unshared dwelling) or two or more household spaces (a shared dwelling). As a result a house may contain more than one household and therefore a household is not the same as a house or dwelling.

2.4 Household projections are primarily based on population projections,

household composition and size. As a result they provide an indication of future demand for household spaces and are not forecasts of dwellings or houses rather they offer an indication of the future number of households based on trends and assumptions about future population growth.

2



3.0 Limitations of Trend Based Projections

3.1 As population and household projections are based on past trends, the projections are only an indication of what may happen if the trend used in the assumptions materialises. Trend based projections do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies or socio-economic factors on household formation rates or future population levels.

3.2 As the process of demographic change is cumulative, projections become

increasingly uncertain the further ahead they predict. Demographic change affects some populations more rapidly and more seriously than others. Due to the size of migration flows for some local authorities, migration assumptions are more critical than fertility and mortality assumptions. Therefore, migration assumptions can have a significant effect on certain areas in the long-term.

4.0 History of the Vale of Glamorgan Council’s Population Projections

4.1 The Vale of Glamorgan Council’s population projections were originally produced in 1997 as part of the preparation of the now Adopted Unitary Development Plan (UDP) which covered the period 1996 to 2011.

4.2 The Council is required under Part 6 of the Planning and Compulsory

Purchase Act to prepare a Local Development Plan (LDP) and Planning Policy Wales (PPW) guidance states that LDPs should take into account the latest published Welsh Government projections, although Welsh Government acknowledges that the projections are a starting point for Local Authorities (LAs) to produce their own population, household and dwelling projections. The onus is therefore still on each Local Authority to demonstrate that they have considered these in a policy context and clearly justify any departure from these, prior to the LDP Examination.

4.3 Population and Household projections are recognised as an important part of

the LDP process and will cover the period 2011-2026 therefore, recalculation of the population and housing projections is required to cover the LDP period.

4.4 The Draft LDP Population and Household Projections Topic Paper (December

2007) was produced using the Welsh Government 2003-based sub-national population projections, for the 22 local authorities in Wales, which used the same model as the equivalent sub-national projections for England.

4.5 The UK population and household projections traditionally used a “top down”

approach, which means the total population for a region is disseminated down to regional areas. These projections were derived by applying patterns of

3



mortality, fertility and migration, resulting in trend based assumptions. At the time National Planning Guidance required local authorities within each region to work collaboratively and with relevant stakeholders to either “apportion” the Welsh Government’s projections or agree their own regional projections.

4.6 Consequently, the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group (SEWSPG)

apportioned the 2003-based household projections between its 10 local authorities. Those projections indicated that the number of households in the South East Wales region would increase by 18.6% (108,900) over the period 2003 to 2021. This exercise took account of advice contained within PPW, the Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) and the individual needs/limitations of each local authority e.g. those local authorities that had previously experienced population and household decline sought to reverse the trend and those authorities which had experienced faster growth in terms of population attempted to stabilise their requirements.

4.7 This apportionment process assisted in controlling the rate of future growth in

line with the WSP to give a better balance of development and avoid overheating in the coastal zone.

4.8 Following a stakeholder seminar in March 2007 (attached appendix A), the

regional apportionment figures were agreed by SEWSPG as a working hypothesis and subsequently endorsed by individual local authorities.

4.9 To support the dwelling requirement in the Draft Preferred Strategy (DPS) the

Council produced the December 2007 topic paper which considered a number of growth options.

4.10 The Paper covered:

• Government housing policy relating to population and household projections;

• Population, housing, migration and build trends; • 8 population, households and dwelling forecast options and proposed

future housing requirements for the LDP.

4.11 The conclusion of that paper was that based on the best available data at that time, the Draft LDP housing requirement figure of 7500 was considered to meet the future needs within the Vale of Glamorgan.

4.12 Following the Draft Preferred Strategy consultation the Council received 206

duly made responses.

4.13 A Summary of matters that were raised included: • Approximately 20% of representations felt that the requirement figure of

7,500 dwellings was considered to be too low; • Approximately 15% of representations felt that the requirement figure of

7,500 did not provide for the needs of Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA);

4



• Approximately 15% of representations felt that the proposed impact from the Defence Training Academy (DTA) had not been considered by SEWSPG or the requirement figure;

• Approximately 10% of representations raised the issues of SEWSPG – the robustness of the apportionment process and the methodology.

4.14 A brief description of other issues (in no particular order) raised were -

• SEWSPG – time scale of the apportionment was 2003-2021, is it correct for the Vale to carry this forward to 2026?

• Objections to the phasing of sites over a 5 year period. It was felt that strategic sites would take too long to be released with this sort of phasing.

• Welsh Government and the regional projections should only be a starting point; and there was a need to consider other projections to meet the needs of the authority.

4.15 Figure 1 – identifies the percentage responses and Appendix B contains those duly made responses.

Source: - Vale of Glamorgan Council – LDP Draft Preferred Strategy – Duly made responses – Appendix B

4.16 Following the 2003-based projections, the Welsh Government held quality

assurance consultations with local authorities and their policy colleagues on both sets of projections (1998-based and 2003-based). During the consultations and as previously intended by the former Welsh Office, the need to produce local authority level projections became more apparent.

4.17 Also evident was that the “top down” model did not produce consistently

meaningful projections at local authority level. Predominantly, it was recognised that some local factors such as their inherent demographic characteristics, wide variations in population size and migration trends were not being reflected for all areas using the “top-down” approach.

4.18 As a result of the consultation and in close collaboration with the Local

Authorities and key users in Wales, it was agreed that Welsh Government would produce the first Local Authority trend-based projections.

Q.02 - Population & Household Growth (Paragraph 8.1 - 8.7) - Do you agree w ith the Council's proposed future housing requirement of

7,500 new dw ellings to be provided during the LDP Period?

19%

41%

17%

23%

Yes

No

Don't Know

Unansw ered

5



5.0 Welsh Assembly Local Authority Population Projections (2006–based)

5.1 As agreed the Welsh Government produced the first Local Authority trend-

based projections, which were published on 30th June 2008. Then, the Wales sub-national population working group (WASPP) was formed and the “bottom up” approach was agreed as the methodology for the Local Authority population projections.

5.2 The “bottom up” methodology was commenced with Welsh Government

obtaining data, broken down to local authority level from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The population projections were then developed by using a similar methodology to that used to calculate the population estimates.

5.3 Local Authority calculations were carried out (in simple terms) by -

• Taking the previous year’s population; • Taking special population (sub sets of population known as ‘static

populations’ such as Prisoners, School Boarders and Armed Forces) out of the equation;

• Aging the population by one year; • Adding births and subtracting deaths; • Allowing for inward and outward migration and • Adding back in the special population.

5.4 However, to produce the local authority population projections, 5-year

averages of local trends for each local authority were required. Therefore, assumptions were formed to project future levels of fertility, mortality and migration for each local authority.

5.5 In fact, such a model was simply aimed to reflect recent local trends,

irrespective of what had influenced them, as an indication of how local populations would develop in the absence of any new factors, including national or local level policies.

5.6 Essentially during this process Welsh Government was required to make some

key decisions on the consistency of the data and recognised that data should be calculated as follows: • Mid-Year to Mid-Year (June to June); • To deal with data volatility a 5-year average for Age Specific rates and

those rates adjusted to local authority levels for 2005-2006 and • Differentials calculated from the Wales national population projections.

5.7 The 2006 mid-year population estimates were used as the base year for the

2006-based local authority population projections. These estimates (and thus the projections) are based on the usually resident population. Usual resident population temporarily away from their home are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address and assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration (at the time of the projections) were based

6



on Welsh Government local trends from the five most recent years (2002 mid-year to 2006 mid-year).

5.8 As part of those key decisions the Welsh Government decided that these

projections should not be forced to sum to the national (Wales) level projections.

5.9 A summary of components used for the Welsh Government projections is as

follows:-

2006-Based Welsh Government Population Projections - Main Components of Change – Births, Deaths, Natural Change and Migration Table 1 below illustrates the main component of population change used within the Welsh Government 2006-based projections for the Vale of Glamorgan.

Births, Deaths, Natural Change and Migration (2006-based Welsh Government Projections)

5.10 Births: In order to project the number of births for each local authority during each year of the projection period, fertility assumptions were produced for all local authorities. This involved calculating each local authority’s 5-year

Year All Births

All deaths

Natural Change Net Migration International

Migration Internal Migration Net Change Overall

In Out Net In Out Net In Out Net 2006 1,323 1,229 94 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 909 2007 1,360 1,244 117 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 932 2008 1,382 1,234 148 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 963 2009 1,401 1,224 177 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 992 2010 1,416 1,219 197 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,012 2011 1,425 1,215 210 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,025 2012 1,429 1,213 217 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,032 2013 1,434 1,212 223 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,038 2014 1,441 1,211 230 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,046 2015 1,451 1,211 240 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,055 2016 1,462 1,212 250 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,065 2017 1,471 1,214 257 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,072 2018 1,476 1,221 255 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,071 2019 1,478 1,229 249 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,064 2020 1,476 1,238 238 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,054 2021 1,471 1,247 224 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,039 2022 1,465 1,260 206 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 1,021 2023 1,460 1,277 183 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 998 2024 1,454 1,294 160 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 975 2025 1,448 1,311 136 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 952 2026 1,442 1,331 111 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 926 2027 1,437 1,353 83 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 898 2028 1,433 1,378 55 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 870 2029 1,430 1,402 28 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 843 2030 1,427 1,425 2 5,175 4,335 840 590 615 -25 5,765 4,949 815 818

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average of assumed Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) and male to female ratio.

5.11 Each local authority’s ASFRs were calculated for females aged 15 to 49 by

single year of age. ASFRs are calculated firstly by dividing the number of live births to females. This is then multiplied by the total number of females of that specific age and multiplying by 1,000. Also boys to girls ratios were calculated, a 5-year average was obtained by calculating the boys born per 1,000 girls for each individual year in the 5-year period and taking the average of those.

5.12 The 2006 projections indicate that over the period births in the Vale of

Glamorgan are projected to continue to increase until 2019/20, after which they will decline again.

5.13 Comparing this to the general pattern seen across the Wales’s local

authorities, the Vale of Glamorgan birth rate is projected to increase for a longer period.

5.14 Deaths: In order to project the number of deaths in each local authority during each year of the projection period, mortality assumptions were produced for each local authority. This involved calculating a 5-year average of assumed Age Specific Mortality Rates (ASMRs) for each local authority.

5.15 ASMRs were calculated for males and females aged newborn to 90+ by single

year of age and gender for each local authority. By firstly dividing the number of deaths for a specific age by the population of that specific age. This is then multiplied by 1,000 to ascertain the ASMR. The data source Welsh Government used was the Vital Statistics Registration Online System and although the data is available in two forms – “occurrences” and “registrations”, to maintain consistency with other key vital statistics Welsh Government decided that “occurrences” data should be used in the projections.

5.16 To predict future changes in mortality Welsh Government obtained differentials

data from Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR) and to calculate the number of deaths Welsh Government used the ASMRs, the population base and the differentials.

5.17 Since 2001, deaths in the Vale of Glamorgan have seen slight fluctuations but

the general pattern has been of a decreasing number of deaths, this is projected to continue until 2014/15, then rise again for the remainder of the projection period, although indications are, this follows the general pattern seen across Wales.

5.18 The changes seen in the death figures are due to two factors; first the

projected increases in life expectancy (hence the decrease in the early years of the projection) and secondly a cohort effect in that if people are living longer, in future years there will be more people in the very elderly population (aged

8



WAG - 2006-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Births & Deaths - 2006 to 2030

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

2001 2006 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

All Births All deaths

WAG - 2006-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Expectation of Life

75

80

85

90

2006 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Expectation of life

WAG - 2006-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Standard Mortalilty Ratio (SMR)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2006 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

SMR: male & female

90+) which is an age group with a higher SMR, leading to more deaths projected.

Figure 4 – illustrates the projected births and deaths over projection period.

Figure 5 – illustrates the projected expectation of life.

Figure 6 – illustrates the decreasing standard mortality ratio for 2006-based Welsh Government population projections.

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WAG - 2006-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Natural change

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

2001 2006 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Natural Change

5.19 Natural Change: Is estimated through the number of births, to the number of deaths, year on year. As already projected births are forecast to increase, primarily due to the profile of women in the local authority changing. This then affects the number of births over the projection period.

5.20 Predictions are that the Vale of Glamorgan will experience more births than

deaths, leading to a positive natural change until the end of the period, when births and deaths will balance. This would be as a result of the already predicted increase in life expectancy for the local authority; the effect shown through natural change because of the predicted decrease of women within the fertility rate age group (e.g. aged 25-34) and a larger number of people in the higher death rate age group (e.g. over 85) giving a balance of births and deaths.

Figure 7 – illustrates the changes in Natural Change for the projection period.

5.21 Migration: In order to produce the population projections, assumptions on Internal (within UK), International, Inward and Outward migration was required. Welsh Government produced these migration assumptions for each local authority by analysing age and gender specific migration trends from the 5 most recent years, prior to the base year of the projections.

5.22 Internal net migration: Internal (or within-UK) migration refers to movement of people moving within the UK, for example, from one local authority to another. These estimates are primarily based on information from GP registrations, by comparing one year to the previous year.

5.23 The Welsh Government 2006-based population projections internal net

migration indicates a positive for both males and females being more people arriving than leaving. The ratio between them is slightly higher for females (460) than males (380). The Vale of Glamorgan is the 6th highest for females and 7th highest for males across the Welsh authorities.

10



Implied Migration 1996 to 2006 (Calculated from Draft Population and Housing Topic- December 07)

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2003

2006

2005

20042001

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

5.24 International net migration: International migration refers to the movement of

people to or from countries outside the UK. The UN definition of an international migrant is – those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months.

5.25 These estimates are calculated by combining data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) together with Home Office data on asylum seekers and visitor switches with estimates of migration between the Republic of Ireland and Wales from the Irish Labour Force survey.

5.26 The 2006-based Welsh Government population projections suggest that the

number of people moving outside of the UK is equally similar to those arriving each year, giving the Vale of Glamorgan a net -25. Similarly the levels of males to females indicate a slightly higher female outflow.

5.27 Due to the volatility relating to migration figures year on year, Welsh Government based their assumptions on a 5 year average of the acquired data and made the decision to statically project both internal and international migration throughout the projection period.

5.28 The migration trend used by the Welsh Government in the projections is

currently a short term trend, namely the most recent 5 years of past rates.

5.29 Figure 8 below demonstrates that by using the Mid Year Estimate, Births, Deaths and the Natural change figures, you can arrive at a measured migration figure. This shows that the period of migration used by Welsh Government in the 2006-based population projections was the highest period of positive net migration for the Vale of Glamorgan in the last 10 years.

5.30 Table 1 indicates that the Welsh Government 2006-based population projections predicted the Vale of Glamorgan would have a net increase of 840 per annum, due to internal and international migration.

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Implied Migration 1986 to 2006 (Calculated from Draft Population and Housing Topic- December 07)

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1992

19931994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

20012002

2003

1991

2004

2005

2006

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

5.31 When considering the migration trends used by Welsh Government and allowing for the Vale’s implied migration, over a longer period, it is quite apparent that the Vale of Glamorgan has experienced some great peaks and troughs in migration.

5.32 Also apparent is prior to 2000/2001 the levels of migration had not consistently

had a greater positive migration than outward. Therefore, the question is whether the short term (5 year) trend used by the Welsh Government, is an adequate reflection of the Vale’s migration patterns and does this achieve a sound basis for the population and household projections.

Figure 9 below demonstrates the fluctuations.

6.0 Overview of the 2006-based Welsh Government Population Projections

6.1 The 2006-based population projections indicate that the total population of the Vale of Glamorgan would increase by 16% during the LDP period so by mid -2026 the population would expect to be 143,589, as identified in Table 2.

Table 2. Population and percentage change 2006-2031 Population at mid-year

Age /

Year 0-4 5-10 11-15 16-17

18-59 Female 64 Male

60/65 -74 75-84 85+ Total Growth

2006 6,653 9,398 8,533 3,665 70,108 14,569 7,638 2,711 123,275 2007 6,811 9,172 8,410 3,671 70,515 15,160 7,612 2,833 124,184 1% 2008 6,925 8,961 8,391 3,655 70,905 15,750 7,576 2,952 125,115 1% 2009 7,061 8,765 8,415 3,558 71,456 16,169 7,604 3,050 126,079 2% 2010 7,181 8,666 8,392 3,485 71,997 16,557 7,607 3,187 127,071 3% 2011 7,303 8,636 8,318 3,465 72,410 17,003 7,646 3,301 128,083 4% 2012 7,406 8,692 8,194 3,452 72,648 17,529 7,814 3,373 129,108 5%

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Age /

Year 0-4 5-10 11-15 16-17

18-59 Female 64 Male

60/65 -74 75-84 85+ Total Growth

2013 7,474 8,893 7,897 3,513 72,966 17,959 7,989 3,448 130,140 6% 2014 7,525 9,031 7,698 3,569 73,327 18,296 8,173 3,559 131,178 6% 2015 7,565 9,187 7,563 3,491 73,769 18,599 8,391 3,659 132,223 7% 2016 7,599 9,323 7,520 3,370 74,170 18,952 8,566 3,780 133,278 8% 2017 7,635 9,456 7,548 3,254 74,562 19,163 8,861 3,866 134,344 9% 2018 7,677 9,563 7,714 3,085 74,864 19,313 9,239 3,961 135,416 10% 2019 7,719 9,636 7,830 3,065 75,092 19,487 9,571 4,087 136,486 11% 2020 7,757 9,693 7,969 3,158 75,196 19,602 9,952 4,225 137,550 12% 2021 7,782 9,742 8,090 3,190 75,330 19,795 10,300 4,374 138,604 12% 2022 7,791 9,787 8,214 3,241 75,365 19,726 10,940 4,578 139,643 13% 2023 7,785 9,833 8,319 3,284 75,530 19,671 11,452 4,790 140,664 14% 2024 7,768 9,881 8,386 3,351 75,631 19,866 11,751 5,027 141,663 15% 2025 7,743 9,926 8,437 3,412 75,725 20,150 11,972 5,271 142,638 16% 2026 7,715 9,963 8,475 3,454 75,905 20,356 12,231 5,491 143,589 16% 2027 7,686 9,984 8,508 3,488 76,069 20,629 12,393 5,759 144,516 17% 2028 7,657 9,987 8,544 3,512 76,149 20,997 12,486 6,082 145,414 18% 2029 7,631 9,976 8,587 3,523 76,388 21,205 12,595 6,379 146,284 19% 2030 7,607 9,953 8,631 3,530 76,598 21,446 12,654 6,708 147,127 19% 2031 7,587 9,922 8,670 3,541 76,853 21,591 12,773 7,007 147,944 20%

6.2 Subsequently, the Welsh Government published the first local authority household projections on 11th June 2009.

7.0 2006-based Welsh Government Household Projections

7.1 Again, these projections were developed in close collaboration with local

authorities and key stakeholders in Wales. As a result, the Wales sub-national household projection working group (WASHP) was formed and following regular technical discussions developed the new “Membership” approach, which was agreed as the methodology for the local authority household projections.

7.2 Population projections are used as the base for the household projections

consequently the household projections are to some extent dependent on the core assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration which are part of those population projections.

7.3 The methodology used by the Welsh Government to calculate the local

authority household projections is summarised below:

• Population projections (broken down by age group and gender) were used to calculate the projected number of people living in private households. Private household population is calculated by subtracting the population

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living in communal establishments from the projected population by age group and gender.

• Historical data on the population in each household was obtained from the

1991 and 2001 census and used to calculate projected household membership rates for each household;

• Household types were determined by size and presence of children and as

household memberships tends to vary by age and gender, historical proportions of people in each household type were calculated by gender for each group, shown in Table 3 and Table 4.

Table 3 - Age Groups

0 - 4 19 – 24 40 – 44 60 – 64

5 - 9 25 – 29 45 – 49 65 – 74

10 – 15 30 – 34 50 – 54 75 – 84

16 – 18 35 – 39 55 – 59 85+

Table 4 - Types of Households 1 person 2 person (no children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) 3 person (no children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 child) 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) 4 person (no children) 4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 5+ person (no children) 5+ person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 5+ person (1 adult, 4+ children)

• The historical proportions were projected forward using a two point

exponential model and scaling to add up to 1 for each age group and gender.

• the projected number of people living in private households was multiplied

by the projected household membership rates to give projected population by age group, gender and household type;

• The results were divided out by household size and aggregated by age,

gender and household type to give the projected total number of households.

14



7.4 Average Household Size – the table below shows the average household size for the Vale of Glamorgan used in the 2006-based projections. Indications are that the average household size will decrease over the period of the projection from 2.34 persons per household to 2.10 persons per household by 2031.

7.5 This change is due to the projected number of persons living in larger

households (4 person or more) decreasing and the concurrent increase in the number of persons living in smaller households.

8.0 Overview of the 2006-based Welsh Government Household Projections

8.1 The Welsh Government 2006-based household projections indicate an

increase of 33% in Vale of Glamorgan’s households over the projection period. However, this only equates to 19% over the LDP period (2011-2026).

8.2 The projection period increase equates to the 2nd highest percentage of

change in the South East Wales area. The highest percentage of change in Wales and SE Wales was Cardiff Council and the lowest being Merthyr Tydfil.

Table 6 below shows the projected number of households for the Vale of Glamorgan

Table 5: Projected Average Household Size for the Vale of Glamorgan, 2006 - 2031 Year 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Average household size 2.34 2.28 2.21 2.17 2.13 2.10

Table 6: Vale of Glamorgan - (2006) Based - Households Forecast Summary Report

Categories / Year 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 1 person 14,442 16,144 18,137 20,101 22,058 23,786 2 person (no children) 17,032 18,503 19,946 21,152 21,964 22,520 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) 2,098 2,490 2,865 3,234 3,598 3,954 3 person (no children) 3,196 3,266 3,287 3,198 3,063 3,018 3 person (2 adults, 1 child) 3,871 4,100 4,288 4,434 4,625 4,865 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) 1,527 1,729 1,965 2,251 2,521 2,731 4 person (no children) 759 716 656 584 525 497 4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 5,197 4,873 4,613 4,450 4,329 4,201 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 429 472 528 600 664 711 5 + person (no children) 121 112 99 85 75 69 5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2,941 2,753 2,586 2,501 2,450 2,370 5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) 165 181 202 230 258 276

Total 51,777 55,341 59,173 62,821 66,128 68,999

15



9.0 Implications of Welsh Government Principal 2006-based LA population/household projections figures for the Vale of Glamorgan

9.1 Whilst considering the outcome of the Welsh Government 2006-based

population and household projections for the LDP the Council has needed to bear in mind the relationships between households and dwellings.

9.2 Using the Popgroup software1, the same software used by the Welsh

Government to produce the projections, it has been possible to produce a forecast of the predicted number of dwellings from the 2006-based Welsh Government projections.

9.3 This has been done using an impact supply file, during the set up of the

projections. This file uses vacancy and sharing rates to calculate the predicted number of dwellings. As the most established vacancy and sharing rates are the 2001 Census rates, those rates have been used within the supply file to enable the production of a forecast of the predicted number of dwellings from the 2006-based Welsh Government projections.

9.4 Table 7 demonstrates the predicted dwelling changes from 2011 – 2026. A

detailed report produced from the software is attached in Appendix C

Table 7 – Predicted Dwelling changes Categories / Year 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Number of Households 51,778 55,342 59,174 62,822 66,131 Change over previous year +748 +765 +696 +623 Number of supply units 54,343 58,084 62,105 65,935 69,407 Change over previous year +785 +803 +731 +654 This report was produced using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

10.0 Welsh Government – 2006-Based - Variant Household Projections

10.1 In order to illustrate the uncertainty associated with household projections, the

Welsh Government produced and published three other projections alongside the principal projection.

1 The POPGROUP software was developed by Bradford Council, The University of Manchester and Andelin Associates and is part of a suite of programs. The suite of programmes can be used for forecasting population, household and dwellings.

16



10.2 The Welsh Government does not recommend these variant projections to be used as either a high or low level projection but as a set of possible outcomes from alternative trends.

10.3 At a Wales level, the high variant household projection is based on

assumptions of high fertility, high life expectancy and high migration. The low variant projection is based on assumption of low fertility, low life expectancy and a low migration.

10.4 Whilst at a Local Authority level variant household projections have only been

produced using variants from the 2006-based population projections. As a result, the high variant is based on assumptions of high fertility and low mortality and the low variant is based on assumptions of low fertility and high mortality. Lastly, a natural change variant was produced based on assumptions with no migration.

10.5 Table 8 demonstrates the differences between the principal projections and

the variant projections.

10.6 Following the publication of the 2006-based projections the Office of National Statistics issued a revision to the Mid Year Estimates for the period 2002-2008.

11.0 Office of National Statistics (ONS) revision of Mid 2002 - 2008 Year Estimates through Improving Migration and Population statistics

11.1 In May 2010 following extensive user engagement exercises, ONS published

revised mid-2002 to mid-2008 local authority population estimates. ONS had integrated a package of improvements to migration and population statistics as

Table 8 - Welsh Government - (2006) Based - Comparison of Principal and Variant Households

Total - All Households for

Year Principal High Low 2006 51,777 51,777 51,777 2011 55,341 55,870 54,823 2016 59,173 60,176 58,207 2021 62,821 64,295 61,419 2026 66,128 68,123 64,253 2031 68,999 71,597 66,585

17



part of the cross-government Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP).

11.2 The new methods changed the way in which international and internal (within

UK) migration is calculated at local authority level. In many areas the impact of the changes will result in a nominal change however, a small number of local authorities had a more substantial change. Population estimates in the majority of areas have had a downward revision with the lesser percentage taking an increased revision.

11.3 The improvements made by ONS included data such as student term-time

residence data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), which had been collected for the first time. Improved International Passenger Survey (IPS) intermediate geographies data and Improved international emigration data to include data from the Republic of Ireland. Also a range of administrative and other sources such as communal establishments’ data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), School Census data and Migrant workers scan records, all to help reduce the impact of the limitations of the data.

11.4 The enhancements ONS have implemented represent a major step forward in

improving the quality of migration and population statistics and are reflected in the 2008–based population projections.

11.5 Full details of the IMPS can be found on the ONS website, detailed below.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/about-statistics/methodology-and-quality/imps/mig-stats-improve-prog/comm-stakeholders/improvements-2008-pop-est/index.html

11.6 Table 9 - shows the revised Mid Year Estimates (MYE) for the Vale of

Glamorgan for the period 2001 – 2009. Note: Revised 2006 MYE is 537 less than previous, see table 2 - base year for previous MYE.

11.7 It should be noted that although the 2006-Mid Year Estimate was revised the Welsh Government did not re-run the 2006-based population/household projections to reflect the changes, therefore the changes made to the MYE are only illustrated through the 2008-based population projections.

Table 9 - [016889] Mid-Year Population Estimates (2001 onwards), Updated 24/06/10 by local authority (single year of age, gender, Welsh LAs) Statistical Directorate, Welsh Assembly Government Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 All Ages 119,277 119,891 120,513 121,395 121,789 122,738 123,361 124,123 124,605

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12.0 Welsh Assembly Local Authority Population Projections (2008 - based)

12.1 Through the continued working with the Wales sub-national population working

group (WASPP), collaboration with local authorities, key users in Wales and by using the same “bottom up” model, the Welsh Government produced the 2008-based LA population projections which were published on 27th May 2010.

12.2 The 2008-based projections were calculated by -

• Taking the previous year’s population; • Taking special population (these sub sets of population known as ‘static

populations’ such as Prisoners, School Boarders and Armed Forces) out of the equation;

• Aging the population by one year; • Adding births and subtracting deaths; • Allowing for inward and outward migration and • Adding back in the special population.

12.3 For a second time the Welsh Government produced local trends for each

authority, again using a short term trend of the five most recent years (2004 mid-year to 2008 mid-year) of data to form the projected future levels of fertility, mortality, and migration.

12.4 Using the ONS revised 2008 mid-year estimate of population as the base for

the 2008-based local authority projections. As with the 2006-based projections the Welsh Government decided that these projections should not be forced to sum to the national (Wales) level projections.

12.5 A summary of the components used for the Welsh Government projections is

outlined below.

2008-based Welsh Government Population Projections – Main Components of Change – Births, Deaths, Natural Change and Migration.

Table 10 below illustrates the main components of population and household change used within the Welsh Government 2008-based projections for the Vale of Glamorgan.

Year All Births All deaths Natural Change Net Migration International

Migration Internal Migration Net

Change Overall

In Out Net In Out Net In Out Net 2008 1,506 1,229 +276 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +842 2009 1,500 1,221 +279 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +845 2010 1,495 1,216 +279 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +844 2011 1,493 1,209 +284 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +849 2012 1,493 1,203 +290 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +855

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Welsh Government - 2008-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Births & Deaths - 2001 to 2031

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

2001 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

All Births All deaths

12.6 Births: by means of the most recent birth data the 2008-based projections

indicate a comparable pattern to that of the 2006-based projections in that births in the Vale of Glamorgan will generally increase over the projection period until 2019/20, after which they will decline again.

12.7 By 2032/33, births are projected to be at a similar level, as those at the start of

the projection period. The decrease in births could be as a result of projected decrease in the number of females of higher fertility age (25-34) from mid - 2022 onwards.

12.8 Deaths: the most recent data used in the 2008-based projections, illustrates

that deaths in the Vale of Glamorgan are projected to decrease until 2016/17 reaching 1,200 after which indications are deaths will begin to rise again, reaching more than 1,450 by 2032/33 giving an overall increase of 19%, which is in line with the general pattern seen across Wales.

Figure 10 – illustrates the changes in births and deaths projected in 2008-based Welsh Government projections.

Year All Births All deaths Natural Change Net Migration International

Migration Internal Migration Net

Change Overall

In Out Net In Out Net In Out Net 2013 1,498 1,198 +300 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +865 2014 1,508 1,197 +312 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +877 2015 1,522 1,196 +326 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +892 2016 1,536 1,196 +340 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +905 2017 1,546 1,198 +348 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +913 2018 1,553 1,202 +351 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +916 2019 1,556 1,211 +345 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +910 2020 1,553 1,221 +332 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +897 2021 1,547 1,231 +315 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +881 2022 1,540 1,244 +296 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +861 2023 1,534 1,260 +275 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +840 2024 1,530 1,276 +253 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +819 2025 1,524 1,295 +230 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +795 2026 1,519 1,316 +204 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +769 2027 1,515 1,338 +178 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +743 2028 1,512 1,360 +152 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +717 2029 1,509 1,383 +126 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +691 2030 1,506 1,407 +98 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +664 2031 1,503 1,433 +71 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +636 2032 1,502 1,458 +44 5,453 4,888 +565 334 316 +18 5,119 4,572 +547 +609

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Welsh Government - 2008-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Expectation of Life

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

2008 Expectation of life 2006 Expectation of life

12.9 The changes in the number of deaths are due to two factors: first the projected

increase in life over the projection period. Life expectancy in the Vale of Glamorgan is likely to increase from 80.7 in 2008/9 to 83.1 in 2022/23 and this increase is projected to continue over the last ten years of the projections.

Figure 11 – demonstrates the similarity between the 2006-based and 2008-based Welsh Government projections for the increased expectation of life.

12.10 Second, a cohort effect, in that if people are living longer, in future years there will be more older people and it is recognised that the older age groups have a higher mortality rate, this would lead to more deaths.

12.11 Table 11 - shows the projected increase of older people (65+) from 23,600 in 2011 to 33,300 in 2026 consequentially the older age group will increase by 41%.

12.12 Natural Change: As with the 2006-based population projections the Vale of Glamorgan’s natural change is generally expected to increase until around 2018/19 before decreasing for the remainder of the projection period. The decrease in natural change is predominantly driven by the increase in the number of deaths.

Table 11 - 2008-Based Welsh Government - Principal Population Projections LDP Periods - Age 65+ 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2033 The Vale of Glamorgan 22,100 23,600 27,200 30,200 33,300 36,700 37,800 Numbers have been independently rounded to the nearest 100 This report was produced using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

21



Welsh Government - 2008-Based - Vale of Glamorgan - Natural change

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

2008 Natural Change 2006 Natural Change

Figure 12 – compares the natural change between the 2006-based and 2008-based projection which is identified as following similar patterns.

12.13 Migration: The 2008-based Welsh Government projections predict that migration for the Vale of Glamorgan would have a net increase of 565 per annum due to internal and international migration as illustrated in table 10.

12.14 Internal net migration: The 2008-based population projections are again

indicating positive migration for both males and females, being more people arriving than leaving.

12.15 Although the ratio of females to males is predicted to be slightly higher for

females (330) than males (220), the 2008-based population projections are indicating (-29%) less females and (-42%) less males than the 2006-based population projections.

12.16 The Vale of Glamorgan is predicted to be the 8th highest for internal net

migration across the Wales authorities.

12.17 International net migration: Unlike the 2006-based population projections the 2008-based population projections indicate that the number of people moving into the Vale of Glamorgan from outside the UK is slight higher than those leaving each year, giving the Vale of Glamorgan a net increase of +18.

12.18 Indications are that the International levels of males to females will be a slightly

higher female inflow than outflow.

12.19 The Vale of Glamorgan is predicted to be the 7th highest for international net migration across the Wales authorities.

22



13.0 Overview of the 2008-based Welsh Government Population Projections

13.1 The 2008-based projections indicate that the total population of the Vale of

Glamorgan would increase by 13% (3% less than the 2006-based projections) during the LDP period so by mid -2026 the population would expect to be 139,729 as identified in Table 12.

Table 12. Population and percentage change 2008-2033 Population at mid-year

0-4 5-10 11-15 16-17 18-59

Female 64 Male

60/65 -74 75-84 85+ Total Growth

2008 7,052 8,924 8,390 3,641 69,749 15,804 7,564 2,999 124,123 2009 7,318 8,683 8,373 3,555 70,121 16,216 7,611 3,088 124,965 1% 2010 7,498 8,585 8,329 3,481 70,493 16,584 7,617 3,223 125,809 1% 2011 7,715 8,485 8,259 3,431 70,763 17,003 7,667 3,331 126,654 2% 2012 7,829 8,561 8,125 3,405 70,817 17,525 7,834 3,408 127,503 3% 2013 7,805 8,894 7,791 3,474 70,965 17,926 8,030 3,472 128,358 3% 2014 7,794 9,146 7,567 3,522 71,112 18,265 8,227 3,590 129,223 4% 2015 7,800 9,410 7,387 3,423 71,343 18,595 8,441 3,703 130,100 5% 2016 7,827 9,583 7,330 3,319 71,551 18,924 8,629 3,828 130,992 6% 2017 7,871 9,801 7,303 3,201 71,703 19,170 8,928 3,920 131,897 6% 2018 7,925 9,915 7,500 3,002 71,800 19,332 9,314 4,021 132,810 7% 2019 7,981 9,893 7,764 2,957 71,811 19,524 9,640 4,158 133,727 8% 2020 8,029 9,890 8,038 3,017 71,718 19,627 10,019 4,299 134,637 8% 2021 8,060 9,910 8,219 3,081 71,628 19,836 10,351 4,451 135,534 9% 2022 8,071 9,951 8,441 3,119 71,399 19,785 10,991 4,657 136,415 10% 2023 8,064 10,006 8,555 3,173 71,378 19,732 11,497 4,871 137,275 11% 2024 8,045 10,068 8,525 3,424 71,197 19,941 11,798 5,117 138,115 11% 2025 8,019 10,127 8,510 3,559 71,150 20,181 12,027 5,361 138,934 12% 2026 7,990 10,174 8,514 3,539 71,253 20,392 12,280 5,586 139,729 13% 2027 7,963 10,199 8,542 3,522 71,313 20,642 12,464 5,854 140,498 13% 2028 7,939 10,203 8,586 3,509 71,264 21,009 12,552 6,179 141,241 14% 2029 7,917 10,191 8,642 3,506 71,344 21,200 12,688 6,472 141,958 14% 2030 7,897 10,167 8,699 3,511 71,418 21,393 12,768 6,796 142,650 15% 2031 7,879 10,135 8,749 3,527 71,470 21,578 12,894 7,082 143,314 15% 2032 7,863 10,101 8,780 3,553 71,582 21,689 12,759 7,622 143,949 16% 2033 7,850 10,069 8,792 3,582 71,819 21,694 12,703 8,050 144,558 16%

13.2 Subsequently, the Welsh Government published the second round of local

authority household projections on 29th September 2010.

14.0 2008-based Welsh Government Household Projections

14.1 Through the continued working with the Wales sub-national household

projection working group (WASHP) and with sustained collaboration with Local Authorities, Key Users in Wales and by using the same “bottom up” model as the 2006–based projections, the Welsh Government produced the 2008-based Local Authority Household projections.

23



14.2 As with the 2006 based projection the Population projections are used as the base for the household projections consequently, the household projections are dependent on the core assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, which are part of those population projections.

14.3 For the second time the Welsh Government used the same methodology as

used for the 2006-based local authority household projections.

14.4 2008-based - Average Household Size Table 13 (below) shows the average household size for the Vale of Glamorgan used in the 2008-based projections.

14.5 Indications are that the average household size will remain the same as the

2006-based projections, in that the average household size will decrease over the period of the projection from 2.31 persons per household to 2.10 persons per household by 2031.

14.6 This change remains the same as the 2006-based projections - due to fact the

projected number of persons living in larger households (4 person or more) is decreasing and the concurrent increase in the number of persons living in smaller households.

15.0 Overview of the 2008-based Welsh Government Household Projections

15.1 The Welsh Government 2008-based household projections indicate an

increase of 28% in Vale of Glamorgan’s households over the projection period. However, this only equates to 17% over the LDP period.

15.2 The projection period increase equates to having joint 2nd highest percentage

of change with Bridgend County Borough Council, of those local authorities in the South East Wales area.

15.3 The highest percentage of change in Wales and SE Wales was Cardiff Council

and the lowest was Torfaen.

Table 13 : Projected Average Household Size for the Vale of Glamorgan, 2008 - 2031 Year 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Average household size 2.31 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.13 2.10

24



Table 14 shows the projected number of households for the Vale of Glamorgan

16.0 Implications of Welsh Government Principal 2008-based LA population/household projections figures for the Vale of Glamorgan

16.1 Whilst considering the outcome of the Welsh Government 2008-based

population and household projections for the LDP, the Council again needed to bear in mind the relationships between households and dwellings.

16.2 As with the 2006-based projections it’s been possible to use the Popgroup

software to produce a forecast of the predicted number of dwellings from the 2008-based Welsh Government projections. Again, using 2001 Census vacancy and sharing rates within an impact supply file (during set up of the projections) it enables the user to produce a forecast of the predicted number of dwellings from the 2008-based Welsh Government projections.

16.3 Table 15 demonstrates the predicted dwelling changes from 2011 – 2026. A

detailed report is attached at Appendix D.

Table 15 – Unconstrained – Principal Projections Categories / Year 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 Number of Households 52,818 54,804 58,236 61,486 64,365 Change over previous year +673 +691 +618 +534 Number of Dwellings (2001 Census Rates) 55,434 57,519 61,121 64,532 67,554 Change over previous year +706 +725 +649 +561 Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 10,034 This report was produced using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

Table 14 - Vale of Glamorgan - 2008-2026 - Households Forecast Summary Report

Households are household population divided by the household size Categories / Year 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 1 person 15,044 16,035 17,884 19,686 21,442 2 person (no children) 17,561 18,382 19,733 20,833 21,513 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) 2,239 2,473 2,833 3,190 3,546 3 person (no children) 3,153 3,160 3,134 3,008 2,835 3 person (2 adults, 1 child) 3,928 4,058 4,189 4,287 4,460 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) 1,599 1,721 1,956 2,241 2,511 4 person (no children) 715 679 609 533 472 4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 5,015 4,820 4,535 4,345 4,202 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 444 471 527 601 665 5 + person (no children) 113 106 92 79 68 5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2,835 2,719 2,542 2,455 2,394 5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) 170 181 202 231 259

Total 52,818 54,804 58,236 61,486 64,365

25



17.0 2008-based Welsh Government Projections – Variant Projections

17.1 In order to illustrate the uncertainty associated with projections, for the second

time, the Welsh Government has published three other projections alongside of the principal projection. These are purely for illustration purposes to show how changes in fertility, mortality and migration assumptions can impact on the population projections.

17.2 The Welsh Government does not recommend these variant projections to be

used as either a high or low level projection but as a set of possible outcomes from alternative trends.

17.3 At a local authority level variant household projections have been produced

using the available variants from the 2008-based population projections.

17.4 The three variants are as follows:-

• A high variant – which illustrates the projected population using assumptions of high fertility and low mortality and

• A low variant – which illustrates the population projections based on assumptions of low fertility and high mortality.

• A zero migration (natural change only) projection – this is to illustrate the projected population of the Vale of Glamorgan if there were no future inward or outward migration.

17.5 The table 16 demonstrates the differences between the principal household

projections and the variant projections.

Table 16 - Welsh Government - (2008) Based - Comparison of Principal and Variant Households

Total - All Households for Year Principal High Low Zero 2008 52,818 52,818 52,818 52,818 2011 54,804 55,130 54,482 54,092 2016 58,236 59,014 57,480 56,321 2021 61,486 62,662 60,351 58,454 2026 64,365 65,928 62,861 60,153 2031 66,784 68,793 64,857 61,211

26



Projected Households in Vale of Glamorgan 2006-based and 2008-based

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Hou

seho

lds

2008 2006

18.0 2008-based Comparison with 2006-based Welsh Government Projections

18.1 Figure 12 shows the difference in the projected total number of households for

the Vale of Glamorgan based upon the 2006-based and 2008-based households.

18.2 Given there have been no changes to the methodology between the two sets of projections, the difference between them are solely due to changes in the underlying population projections.

19.0 Additional Options Tested by Vale of Glamorgan Council

19.1 As stated in the Welsh Government published projections, the local authority projections should only be a starting point for the local authorities.

19.2 Whilst analysing the Welsh Government principal projections to ascertain if the

latest (2008-based) projections meet the needs of the Vale of Glamorgan, it was considered that enhancements such as bringing the projections up to date with current information would be of benefit.

27



19.3 For that reason consideration was given to the following areas of possible adjustment, either as stand alone options or combined options:-

Option 1 - Constraining the model to reflect the latest Mid Year Estimates for 2009 and 2010.

19.4 This option is considered to be an appropriate improvement to the Welsh

Government 2008-based projections, bringing them up to date with the revised (June 2011) and latest Mid Year Estimate issued by the Office of National Statistics.

19.5 Table 16 gives a summary of the population and household projections, with

the adjusted 2009 and 2010 population, which reflects the latest Mid Year Estimate issued by the Office of National Statistics.

19.6 Table 16 also includes the projected dwelling change from 2011 - 2026.

19.7 A full Components of Population and Household change report produced from

the Popgroup software, is attached in Appendix E (i).

Table 16 - Vale of Glamorgan Council - 2008-based Welsh Government (Principal) Projections with Mid Year Estimates updated

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 0-4 7,052 7,188 7,417 7,605 7,702 7,958 7,903 5-10 8,924 8,639 8,499 8,431 9,476 9,757 10,050 11-15 8,390 8,376 8,279 8,162 7,274 8,139 8,383 16-17 3,641 3,532 3,449 3,439 3,269 3,049 3,479 18-59 Female, 64 Male 69,749 70,066 70,131 70,383 71,093 71,140 70,756 60/65 -74 15,804 16,159 16,448 16,873 18,898 19,809 20,331 75-84 7,564 7,575 7,561 7,627 8,559 10,269 12,246 85+ 2,999 3,070 3,192 3,284 3,791 4,419 5,538 Total 124,123 124,605 124,976 125,804 130,062 134,540 138,686 Population impact of constraint Number of persons -360 -473 Households Number of Households 52,818 53,328 53,784 54,454 57,875 61,094 63,935 Change over previous year +510 +456 +671 +680 +611 +533 Number of Dwellings (2001 Census Rates) 55,434 55,969 56,448 57,152 60,742 64,121 67,102 Change over previous year +535 +479 +704 +714 +641 +559

Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 9,950 Special Populations Students 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Armed forces 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 Prisoners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Notes: Correction of the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) Derived Forecast has made changes to the Migration which has decreased the population for those two years.

This report was compiled from a forecast produced using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council, the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

28



Option 2 - Constraining the model to reflect an adjusted Vacancy Rate (Census Rate equal 4.41% and by using Council Tax data vacancy rate could be reduced to 3.94%)

19.8 As the Impact Supply file uses vacancy and sharing rates to calculate the number of dwellings and as the Census count was some 10 years ago, an alternative source has been established through council tax.

19.9 Using council tax empty properties classifications a check on the changes in

the number of properties vacant within the Vale of Glamorgan since 2001 was collated to determine an average rate.

Table 17 - indentifies these figures

19.10 Table 18 gives a summary output of the population and household projections, using the adjusted 2009 and 2010 Mid Year Estimate and the council tax empty properties average percentage (as identified in table 17) for the vacancy rate within the impact supply file.

19.11 Table 18 also includes the projected dwelling change from 2011 - 2026.

19.12 A full Components of Population and Household change report compiled from

the Popgroup software, is attached in Appendix E (ii)

Table 17 - Council Tax - Empty Properties Report

Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011

Valuation List - Total Number of

Properties 51,762

52,457

53,088

53,609

54,000

54,460

54,756

55,046

55,078

55,135

55,171

55,181

55,258

55,375

Total Empty Properties

(Excluding Crown)

2,203

2,123

2,120

2,173

2,275

2,249

2,217

2,373

1,776

1,748

1,776

2,369

2,313

2,224

Percentage 4.26% 4.05% 3.99% 4.05% 4.21% 4.13% 4.05% 4.31% 3.22% 3.17% 3.22% 4.29% 4.19% 4.02%

Average

Percentage 3.94%

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Table 18 - Vale of Glamorgan Council - 2008-based Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Mid Year Estimates updated & Council Tax data for Average Vacancy Rates)

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 0-4 7,052 7,188 7,417 7,605 7,702 7,958 7,903 5-10 8,924 8,639 8,499 8,431 9,476 9,757 10,050 11-15 8,390 8,376 8,279 8,162 7,274 8,139 8,383 16-17 3,641 3,532 3,449 3,439 3,269 3,049 3,479 18-59Female, 64Male 69,749 70,066 70,131 70,383 71,093 71,140 70,756 60/65 -74 15,804 16,159 16,448 16,873 18,898 19,809 20,331 75-84 7,564 7,575 7,561 7,627 8,559 10,269 12,246 85+ 2,999 3,070 3,192 3,284 3,791 4,419 5,538 Total 124,123 124,605 124,976 125,804 130,062 134,540 138,686 Population impact of constraint Number of persons -360 -473 Households Number of Households 52,818 53,328 53,784 54,454 57,875 61,094 63,935 Change over previous year +510 +456 +671 +680 +611 +533 Number of Dwellings (Av Rates) 55,156 55,689 56,165 56,865 60,437 63,799 66,766 Change over previous year +532 +476 +700 +711 +638 +557

Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 9,900 Special Populations Students 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Armed forces 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 Prisoners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Notes: Correction of the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) Derived Forecast has made changes to the Migration which has decreased the population for those two years. Other adjustments - the Supply file was amended with the Council Tax Vacancy Rate from the 2001 rate to 10 Year Average Rate.


Option 3 - Constraining the model to consider a 10 Year Average trend of Assumed Migration (net +523)

19.13 A 10 year average of assumed migration has been calculated into a rate using the following –

19.14 Using the Mid-Year Estimate at the start of the period less deaths, plus births

equalling the Natural Change, then calculate the change in Mid Year Estimates (start and finish of the period) to arrive at the population change; less Natural change to equal the Assumed Migration.

Table 19 – shows the figures used for the calculations -

30



Table 19 - Components of Population Change for Vale of Glamorgan Council Incorporating - Revised Mid Year Estimates to 2009

VALE OF GLAMORGAN UNITARY AUTHORITY (Thousands)

MYE Population Mid Year

Births Mid Year Deaths

Natural Change

Assumed Migration

MYE Population

Change MYE Population

2000 119,276 1322 1310 12 -11 1 119,277 2001 2001 119,277 1241 1302 -61 675 614 119,891 2002 2002 119,891 1192 1319 -127 749 622 120,513 2003 2003 120,513 1244 1330 -86 968 882 121,395 2004 2004 121,395 1283 1283 -1 395 394 121,789 2005 2005 121,789 1271 1250 21 929 949 122,738 2006 2006 122,738 1320 1247 73 551 623 123,361 2007 2007 123,361 1403 1249 154 608 762 124,123 2008 2008 124,123 1464 1241 224 259 482 124,605 2009 2009 124,605 1473 1204 269 102 371 124,976 2010

Averages per annum over Medium and Short Term Periods

Period Population at Start

Mid Year

Births Mid Year Deaths

Natural Change

Implied Migration

Population Change

Population at End Period

Medium Term (10 Years)

Rounded Average

2000-2009 121,697 1,321 1,273 48 523 570 122,267 2000-2009

Short Term (5 Years) 2005-2009 123,323 1,386 1,238 148 490 637 123,961 2005-2009

Please note: for the purpose of this table figures have been rounded, which may give a minor variation on manual summing.

19.15 Table 20 gives a summary output of the population and household projections, with the adjusted 2009 and 2010 population and constraining the In-UK Migration to the assumed migration identified in table 19.

19.16 Table 20 also includes the projected dwelling change from 2011 - 2026. 19.17 A full Components of Population and Household change report compiled from

the Popgroup software, is attached in Appendix E (iii)

Table 20 – Vale of Glamorgan Council - 2008-based Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Mid Year Estimates updated & 10 Year Average Assumed Migration)

Summary of Population estimates/forecasts Population at mid-year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 0-4 7,052 7,188 7,417 7,635 7,851 8,287 8,077 5-10 8,924 8,639 8,499 8,398 9,516 9,995 10,589 11-15 8,390 8,376 8,279 8,146 7,056 8,006 8,510 16-17 3,641 3,532 3,449 3,432 3,200 2,861 3,428 18-59Female, 64Male 69,749 70,066 70,131 70,337 70,712 70,023 68,092 60/65 -74 15,804 16,159 16,448 16,895 19,059 20,015 20,604 75-84 7,564 7,575 7,561 7,632 8,617 10,513 12,839 85+ 2,999 3,070 3,192 3,286 3,825 4,539 5,882 Total 124,123 124,605 124,976 125,761 129,837 134,240 138,020

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JHLA Completions 2001/02 - 2010/11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Complet ions 631 700 713 509 411 506 302 406 65 118 125

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 Population impact of constraint Number of persons -317 -431 Households Number of Households 52,818 53,328 53,784 54,446 57,907 61,134 63,660 Change over previous year +510 +456 +663 +695 +597 +434 Number of Dwellings (2001 Census Rates) 55,434 55,969 56,448 57,144 60,776 64,162 66,814 Change over previous year +535 +479 +696 +730 +627 +456 Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 9,670 Special Populations Students 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Armed forces 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 Prisoners 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Notes:

Correction of the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) Derived Forecast has made changes to the Migration which has decreased the population for those two years. Other adjustments made was the In (UK) Migration to reflect the to 10 Year Assumed Migration Rate.


20.0 Other Options Considered

20.1 Consideration was given to producing a model which constrained the number of units per annum but it was deemed unsuitable because of the fluctuations in build rates and because the average build rate (over the last 10 years) would have produced projections significantly lower than that indicated by the Welsh Government principal projections.

Figure 13 shows the decline and uncertainty in completions.

32



Table 21 shows the short and medium term averages.

21.0 Conclusion

21.1 The Vale of Glamorgan has always been and is likely to continue to be a sought-after place of residence, largely because of its quality living environment and proximity to Cardiff.

21.2 It has also been recognised that the Vale is very attractive to property

developers and the Vale has previously experienced exceptional dwelling completions in excess of 700 dwellings in 2002-2003; the highest in more than 10 years.

21.3 For that reason, there is a balancing exercise required to ensure that

development within the Vale protects its unique environmental qualities and in accordance with PPW guidance, considers the latest Welsh Government projections as a starting point.

21.4 Consultation on the Draft Preferred Strategy resulted in the Council receiving

206 duly made responses. 20% of the representations commented that the dwelling requirement figure of 7,500 dwellings was too low and 15% felt the 7,500 would not meet the needs of the Local Housing Market Assessment. As a consequence, the Council has considered the following as outlined in paragraph 21.5 to 21.17

21.5 The two sets of population and household projections produced by the Welsh

Government. The first being the 2006-based principal population projection

Completions Period Actual 2000/01 631

Medium Term (10 Years) 2001/02 700 2002/03 713 2003/04 509 2004/05 411 2005/06 506

Short Term (5 Years) 2006/07 302 2007/08 406 2008/09 65 2009/10 118 2010/11 125

Term Length Average build per annum over term

Medium Term (10 years) 386 Short Term (5 years) 203

33



which introduced the new local methodology, the “bottom-up” approach. Although the Welsh Government published variant projections for both sets of projections, Local Authorities were advised that these should not be used as high or low comparisons to the principal projection.

21.6 At the time of analysing the migration data used within the 2006-based

population projections, it was deemed that the 5 year period of data used to produce the static migration figure was over estimating the population projections. The period of data used was considered to be the highest level of migration experienced within the Vale for at least 20 years.

21.7 As the household projections are largely dependent on the population

projections this would therefore be replicated through into the 2006-based Household projections, hence the 2006-based projections indicated a requirement in excess of 10,700 households for the LDP period.

21.8 Following this the Office of National Statistics revised the Mid Year Estimates

for the period 2002-2008. The effect this had on the Vale’s population was a reduction of approximately 2,600. This also indicates that the trend used for the 2006-based projections was over estimating the population.

21.9 The latest set of Welsh Government projections is the 2008-based projections

and although these projections apply the same methodology and have continued to use a short term data trend (5 years), these projections took into account the revised Mid Year Estimates up to and including 2008.

21.10 The 5 year period of migration used for the short term trend for the 2008-based

projection had already taken a downturn compared to the 2006-based projections; which is also reflected by the net migration resulting in +547 per annum as opposed to the 2006-based +840 per annum.

21.11 Again, this affected the results of the household projection; hence the

household requirement for the 2008-based projections was 9,400 households for the LDP period.

21.12 Whilst analysing the Welsh Government principal projections to ascertain if the

latest (2008-based) projections met the development desires of the Vale of Glamorgan and as the 2008-based projections had taken into account the revised Mid Year Estimates up to 2008, it was considered that enhancements such as bringing the projections up to date with current information would be of benefit.

21.13 First was to update the 2009 and 2010 Mid Year Estimates to equal those Mid

Year Estimates published by the Office of National Statistics.

21.14 Second was to calculate an Average Vacancy Rate as an updated Vacancy rate to substitute for the 2001 Census Vacancy Rate. Although, it has been possible to calculate a 10 year average vacancy rate using the council tax empty properties data, it has not been possible to calculate a consistent

34



sharing rate from the same source, therefore it is felt that the use of this rate should not be in preference to that of the 2001 Census rates.

21.15 Finally a 10 Year Migration Rate. The data used by the Welsh Government

did not extend to 10 years of local data; the simplest way to arrive at a 10 Year migration rate was to calculate an assumed migration. When calculating the assumed migration rate through the method mentioned in paragraph 19.14 above, it was calculated to be 7.5% lower than the migration rate used in the Welsh Government’s principal projections.

21.16 Therefore, although the migration rate used within the Welsh Government’s

principal projections is slightly higher than the assumed migration. All trend based projections have limitations in that they will only materialise should the used trend continue. As a consequence the Council felt that the short term migration rate used within the 2008-based Welsh Government Principal projections is acceptable until there is availability of further data, to produce a longer term migration rate as a comparison. It is likely that this information will be available when the results of the Census are released in 2012/2013.

21.17 Whilst considering the Welsh Government Principal Projections together with

maintaining a balance and desire for development within the Vale but still protecting its unique qualities, the Council believes that the following option allows for the appropriate level of development for the Vale of Glamorgan over the Plan period.

22.0 Vale of Glamorgan Council - Proposed Population, Household and Dwelling - LDP Projection 2011 -2026

22.1 The Vale of Glamorgan method of calculating future dwelling requirements for

the area is Option 1 as outlined in paragraphs 19.4 to 19.7 of this paper. 22.2 Option 1 is consistent with the 2008-based Welsh Government Principal

Projection with minor amendments to reflect the actual Mid Year Estimates for 2009-2010.

22.3 Table 16 indicates that during the LDP period (2011-2026) the population is

expected to reach in the region of 138,600, a change of approximately 12,800.

22.4 The change in households is expected to be approximately 9,400 giving the projected number of dwellings required for the LDP (2011 – 2026) of 9,950 dwellings.

22.5 This option has been selected as it takes into consideration the latest Welsh

Government projections, reflects the concerns submitted at the Draft Preferred Strategy Consultation but constrains the Principal projections to account for the latest Mid Year Estimates, to enable retention of the unique qualities of the Vale of Glamorgan.



Appendices

South East Wales Regional Housing Apportionment Memorandum of Understanding

This Memorandum of Understanding comprises 3 parts:

Part 1 - Explanatory text

Part 2 - Housing Apportionment by Local Authority to 2021

Annex - History of the Apportionment Process Part 1 - Explanatory text This work has been undertaken in the context of the Wales Spatial Plan 2004 and the associated area work of the South East Wales Strategic Development Project. The process reflects the Welsh Assembly Government’s revisions to national planning policy guidance on housing. This Memorandum is based on the Welsh Assembly Government’s household projections and confirms agreement to their apportionment to each local authority, not as a target, but as a working hypothesis to provide a regional context for the preparation of individual Local Development Plans (LDPs). Use of the Assembly Government’s household projections and the consequent housing apportionment figures have been facilitated through the regional collaborative working of the eleven local authorities in the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group and other stakeholders, including the Home Builders Federation, utility companies and environmental organisations. The detailed housing apportionment figures form the basis for ongoing work on individual local authority statutory LDPs and will require review in tandem with their progression. Individual LDPs are subject to strategic environmental assessment/sustainability appraisal and are prepared through the engagement of a broad range of stakeholders. Compliance with the regional apportionment will be monitored by the SEWSPG and significant variations considered by the Group. George Ashworth Officer Chair South East Wales Strategic Planning Group February 2007 Cllr Peter Clarke Member Chair South East Wales Strategic Planning Group March 2007

1

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Typewritten Text

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Text Box

Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan 2011 - 2026 - Appendix A

Part 2 - Housing Apportionment by Local Authority to 2021

Rate of change for dwelling

completions 2006-21 compared to

1991-05

Proportion of total

households in region in

2003

No % No % % % No %

Blaenau Gwent 129 2.6 200 3.3 +54.5% 4.9 4,280 3.9

Bridgend 513 10.4 500 8.3 -2.6% 9.3 10,120 9.3

Caerphilly 561 11.4 650 10.8 +16.0% 12.0 11,450 10.5

Cardiff 1352 27.5 1,420 23.6 +5.0% 22.3 26,070 23.9

Merthyr Tydfil 130 2.6 250 4.2 +92.5% 3.9 4,900 4.5

Monmouthshire 395 8.0 350 5.8 -11.4% 6.1 6,140 5.6

Newport 419 8.5 800 13.3 +90.7% 9.9 12,100 11.1

RCT 696 14.1 950 15.8 +36.5% 16.5 17,300 15.9

Torfaen 216 4.4 400 6.6 +85.4% 6.5 6,600 6.1

The Vale of Glamorgan 511 10.4 500 8.3 -2.2% 8.5 9,940 9.1

S.E. Wales 4,923 100.0 6,020 100.0 +22.3% 100.0 108,900 100.0

SUB REGIONAL COMPARISONSEAST (Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent & Monmouthshire) 1,160 23.6 1,750 29.1 +50.9% 27.4 29,120 26.7WEST (Merthyr, Caerphilly, RCT, Bridgend, Vale & Cardiff) 3,763 76.4 4,270 70.9 +13.5% 72.6 79,780 73.3

COAST (Monmouthshire , Newport, Cardiff, & Vale) 2,678 54.4 3,070 51.0 +14.6% 47.0 54,250 49.8REST (Torfaen, BG, Caerphilly, MT, RCT,& Bridgend) 2,245 45.6 2,950 49.0 +31.4% 53.0 54,650 50.2* Including average completions for last one or two years for some authorities

SEWSPG: Dwelling Completions & Household Change by LA to 2021Dwellings

AUTHORITYAssumed average

dwelling completions 2006-

2021 p.a. Average rate of completions

1991-2005*

Proportion of WAG regional

household growth 2003-21 (LAs

preferred options)

Households

2

Annex - SEWSPG- History of Regional Housing Apportionment Process

Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) Consultation Draft Ministerial Interim Planning Policy Statement (MIPPS) on ‘Housing’, July 2005

The draft guidance outlines that within each region local planning authorities (LPAs) should work together collaboratively to apportion to each authority the Assembly Government regional household projections or agree their own regional policy based projections (paragraph 9.2.2).

19 September 2005 SEWSPG Member/Officer Meeting

Agreed that an up-to-date position statement be prepared on housing to update the housing land supply figures from those contained in the January 2000 Strategic Planning Guidance for South East Wales. Agreed to invite SEWTA, SEWRHF and SEWEF to future meetings of SEWSPG. Chair of SEWSPG to attend future meetings of these regional groups and report back. SEWRHF Regional Housing Market Study circulated to all SEWSPG members, SEWRHF invited to next meeting to give presentation on the report’s main conclusions. Noted the current consultation on the draft MIPPS and TANs1 and 2 with their explicit recognition of working at a level above that of individual local authorities to assess housing issues. Agreed to note the implications for the future role of the SEWSPG and give consideration to such matters in individual consultation responses.

12 December 2005 SEWSPG Officer Meeting

Agreed to collate Housing Land Availability (HLA) data from all authorities, (Graham Fry, Newport City Council) to input to SE Wales Strategic Development Project Initiation Document.

23 January 2006

SEWSPG Member and Officer Meeting Draft data sheet indicating dwelling completions and brownfield/greenfield split for the majority of authorities introduced by Graham Fry (Newport City Council).

3

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Text Box

Vale of Glamorgan Local Development Plan 2011 - 2026 - Appendix A

24 April 2006 SEWSPG Officer Meeting

Two papers introduced:

1. Draft ‘Household Projections and Local Development Plan Dwelling Requirements’ Jerry Dixon (Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council).

2. First Draft of ‘South East Wales Regional Household Forecast: Apportionment to Local Authority Areas’ (Gerry Lynch, Cardiff City and County Council).

Agreed to convene a special meeting in the form of an informal workshop to discuss each authority’s ability to accommodate the projected household growth; inviting a WAG representative in respect of revised planning policy on housing and household projection figures.

11 May 2006 SEWSPG Special Officer Meeting

Presentation by Neil Hemington and Jamie Jenkins (WAG Planning Division and Statistical Directorate) ‘Sub-national population projections: South East Wales’. Two papers introduced:

1. The ‘bottom up’ policy based approach by Roger Tanner (Caerphilly County Borough Council).

2. The ‘top down’ policy based approach by Dave Holtam (Cardiff City and County Council).

Neil Hemington confirmed that the work of SEWSPG would acquire status by feeding into the WSP refresh and then into individual Local Development Plans (LDPs). SEWSPG agreed that the WAG household projections of 108,900 should be used as a working hypothesis for regional housing apportionment. Local Authority capacity figures put forward to assist the group in its current exercise and to provide the WSP process with an option for consideration. Agreed this was an Officer view and that matters require further political consideration. Papers to be revised and figures updated for the Member meeting.

4

22 May 2006

SEWSPG Member and Officer Meeting Presentation by Neil Hemington (WAG Planning Division) ‘Sub-national population projections: South East Wales’, outlining amendments to draft MIPPS (para 9.2.2) in light of analysis of consultation responses. Agreed that the WAG household projections of 108,900 should be used as a working hypothesis for regional housing apportionment. Dave Holtam (Cardiff City and County Council) presented a paper ‘Apportionment of Regional Housing Projections’. Agreed that the apportionment of households indicated in the appendix of the paper presented should be accepted as the basis for local authority participation in on-going discussions on the SEW Strategic Development project and progressing individual LDPs.

‘MIPPS 01/2006 ‘Housing’ and‘TAN1- Joint Housing Land Availability Studies’, June 2006

The final Housing MIPPS introduces collaborative working between LPAs and appropriate stakeholders to apportion household projections (para 9.2.2).

12 June 2006 SEWSPG Officer Meeting

Agreed need to liaise with transport, housing and private sector groups. Presentation by Peter Green (Bridgend County Borough Council) on behalf of SE Wales Regional Housing Forum (SEWRHF). Agreed to further revise apportionment figures for Torfaen CBC and Caerphilly CBC according to meeting discussions. WAG email confirming discussions that SEWSPG needs to consider apportionment in light of the three Area Framework options. Consultation on the options and their SEA/SA will then include the three apportionment options (16 June 2006).

5

17 July 2006 SEWSPG AGM

Agreed Dave Holtam (Cardiff City and County Council) should make a presentation to the Business Panel on 24 July 2006 on behalf of SEWSPG regarding the housing apportionment process and detailed figures to date. Presentation by Dave Harris on behalf of the South East Wales Transport Alliance (SEWTA). WAG advises SEWSPG Chair via email that it is unlikely that the consultation draft of the South East Area Framework will include the LPA apportionment figures and that LPAs will need to substantiate their housing figures based on guidance in the Housing MIPPS and TAN1 (1 September 2006).

18 September 2006 SEWSPG Officer Meeting

WAG advised that regional housing apportionment should be carried out in accordance with Housing MIPPS and TAN1, confirming that the existing WSP should be used as the basis for the regional housing apportionment exercise. WAG also confirmed that it was not intended that the WSP would set out detailed apportioned housing figures, but would probably include the overall household projection (108,900) and may refer to broad areas of housing growth, but would provide no further detail. Agreed that the housing apportionment figures could not be ‘set in stone’ and that flexibility would be required to allow the figures to change as LDPs move forward. Agreed a sub-group should be formed to consider the best means of engaging other stakeholders, including the Home Builders Federation (HBF), Business Panel, environmental groups and utilities, in the housing apportionment exercise.

6

6 November 2006

SEWSPG Officer Meeting with stakeholders (incl HBF, Environment Agency, Welsh Water) to discuss future methods of engagement in

housing apportionment process. SE Wales Business Panel paper entitled ‘South East Wales Strategic Development Options’ (by Nathaniel Lichfield) introduced to SEWSPG by Richard Price (HBF). Agreed there did not appear to be a marked difference between SEWSPG’s housing apportionment figures and the position adopted by the South East Wales Business Panel. Paper prepared by WAG entitled ‘Housing, LDPs and the Wales Spatial Plan’ circulated to all SEWSPG members. Agreed the document provided helpful clarification outlining that the apportionment of household projection numbers from the regional projections should take place through regional collaboration between LPAs and other stakeholders including the housebuilders and utility companies, in line with the revised planning policy guidance, noting that it would be legitimate for this to take place in the context of the spatial plan work. Agreed a Sub Group be formed (George Ashworth, Monmouthshire CC, Dave Holtam, Cardiff CC, Andrew Wallace, Vale of Glamorgan CC, Lynda Healey Blaenau Gwent CBC, and Roger Tanner, Caerphilly CBC, with the involvement of Justin Cooper of Sewta) to prepare a strategic statement for the region to be fed into the work of the WSP Core Group, indicating general directions of growth and identifying key settlements; a draft of the document to be presented to the next SEWSPG meeting. Agreed Event Sub Group meet asap to make arrangements for a stakeholder conference to take place in January, reporting back to next meeting.

11 December 2006 SEWSPG Officer Meeting with additional housing apportionment

stakeholders First Draft SEWSPG paper ‘Preferred Option for a Strategic Framework to Guide Future Development and Policies in South East Wales’ prepared by Sub Group, introduced by George Ashworth (Monmouthshire County Council and Chair SEWSPG). Agreed any additional paragraphs that SEWSPG members felt should be added to the document to be sent to Secretariat. The work of the Event Sub-Group (Jane Coppock Monmouthshire CC, Lynda Healey, Blaenau Gwent CBC, Dave Holtam Cardiff CC, Keith Warren, Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC) was reported regarding the organisation of the Housing Apportionment Seminar outlining the balance of between various sectoral interests, the HBF to seek nominations from the private business sector; workshops to be independently facilitated by Cardiff University School of City and Regional Planning (CPlan).

7

Agreed the Business Panel, through Richard Price of the HBF, be invited to submit an alternative apportionment to be assessed at the seminar and that it also be suggested to the Panel that their representative liaise with DH beforehand to ensure consistency in the figures to be discussed.

11 January 2007 South East Wales Regional Housing Apportionment Seminar

Five Presentations from: WAG - ‘Welsh Assembly Government Context’ (Neil Hemington, Planning

Division). Environment Agency – ‘Environmental Resources and Opportunities. Creating

a Networked Environmental Region’ (Michael Evans). Welsh Water – ‘Utilities Context’ (Ryan Bowen). SEWSPG – ‘Regional Housing Apportionment’ (David Holtam, Cardiff City and

County Council). Business Panel – ‘Business Panel Views’ (Richard Price, Home Builders

Federation), supported by HBF, CBI Wales, Chamber of Commerce, FSB, Institute of Directors, Institute of Chartered Accountants and RICS Wales.

Three Workshops facilitated by CPlan to discuss the compatibility of the apportionments with the existing Wales Spatial Plan strategic objectives for the South-East Wales region, with focus on transport proposals and environmental opportunities and constraints.

Workshop Feedback Notes prepared by CPlan and circulated to all seminar participants and SEWSPG members.

12 February 2007 SEWSPG Officer Meeting with additional housing apportionment

stakeholders Agreement on key issues arising from Seminar. Agreement of Draft Memorandum of Understanding, subject to a number of minor amendments to paragraph 3.

8

05 March 2007

SEWSPG Member/Officer Meeting with additional housing apportionment stakeholders

9

Appendix B - Vale of Glamorgan - Local Development Plan - Draft Preferred Strategy - Extract from Duly made responses -

Question 2 - Population and Household Growth (Paragraph 8.1 - 8.7) - Do you agree with the Council's proposed future housing requirement of 7,500 new dwellings to be provided during the LDP Period?

15/503/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Population Growth and Housing - Whilst we note the Council's Proposed Housing Requirement figure of 7,500 over the plan period, we reserve the right to comment further at the Deposit LDP stage concerning the detailed justification of this figure and also the distribution of the overall housing provision across the plan area.

Affordable Housing - We note and welcome the preparation of a Local Housing Market assessment which will be used to underpin the Deposit LDP affordable housing policy. In this context, we reserve the right to comment on the precise detail of the Study and subsequent affordable housing policy as part of the Deposit LDP stage.

Rep No:

31/736/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Vale of Glamorgan LDP - Population Growth and Housing – HBF Comments

2. Question 2 - Population Growth and Housing

2.1 Page 12, Paragraphs 8.3 – 8.7

2.1.1 These paragraphs discuss the proposed house building figure for the Local Development Plan. Paragraph 8.3 states that only one figure meets the needs of the Vale and the guidance offered by the Wales Spatial Plan, which is the figure proposed by the SEWSPG housing apportionment process. In this respect, paragraph 8.6 states that the proposed draft housing requirement figure for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP will be 7500 dwellings or 500 units per annum.

2.1.2 Paragraph 8.5 provides a very brief description of the apportionment of the WAG regional household figure by the 10 neighbouring planning authorities of South East Wales. The paragraph states that the 10 local authorities have considered each other’s needs and limitations in arriving at the regional apportionment and paragraph 8.3 states that the apportionment process meets the needs of the Vale.

2.1.3 The HBF has a fundamental concern with this. National Guidance states that the SEWSPG housing apportionment process should be the starting point for local authorities to assess their housing requirements. (MIPPS Housing 01/2006, Page 3). It is the Federations understanding that the apportionment process itself was decided between the 10 local authorities on the basis of what each local authority believes it could accommodate in terms of housing delivery. The HBF has been reliably informed that the process was not subject to any trend based analysis, local projections or economic forecasts, but was carried out by looking at capacity and aspirations. The HBF was also made aware at a SEWSPG Officer meeting on the 12th February 2007 that, even though the 10 local authorities were ‘content’ with the apportionment, this did not mean that they would necessarily accept it in their LDPs (as is the current case with Cardiff).

2.1.4 The HBF believes that the methodology with which the apportionment of the regional household projections has been carried out, fails to take account of whether the housing apportionment is actually deliverable within the respective local authorities. It fails to take account of market conditions that will be key to realising any proposed household growth and also fails to incorporate any information pertaining to economic activity within the respective areas.

2.1.5 The Federation believes there needs to be an evidence based approach that uses population projections, economic forecasts and other trend based analyses to show how realistic the proposed amount of housing growth is within each Local Authority. The Federation also believes that the housing figures proposed by the SEWSPG, illustrate a substantial misalignment between projected job growth and housing supply and fail to recognise the central importance of growth in Cardiff and the coastal region to the development of an economically successful and sustainable ‘City Region’

2.1.6 In short the HBF believes that there is a lack of a clear evidence base or empirical methodology informing the proposed SEWPSG apportionment and more work needs to be undertaken in order to prove that the amount of development proposed across SE Wales is justified and deliverable.

2.1.7 In terms of the apportionment, the HBF is also concerned that there are no statutory arrangements are in place for formalising the process on a regional level and the HBF would like to stress the importance of making the process of the apportionment of housing across Wales a statutory procedure. It stands to reason that if these figures are ultimately going to be used to inform Local Development Plans then they should be subject to independent scrutiny. The Federation believes it is unacceptable that the housing distribution in statutory Local Development Plans should be fixed in advance through a non-statutory process, especially when this process is the only strategic planning guidance in the British Isles not subject to formal examination and independent scrutiny. The Federation also believes that if there was a statutory process, the figures ensuing would be far more justified and achievable than those proposed by the South East Wales Strategic

Rep No:


Planning Group.

2.2 Regional Housing Apportionment Evidence Base

2.2.1 This housing apportionment exercise was based on the 2003-based population and household projections from the WAG, which in turn are based on the 2003-based population projections. Since the publication of the 2003-based population projections there have been 2 further sets of population projections for Wales. The 2004-based national population projections and the 2006-based national population projections. Both projections show a significantly higher population for Wales when a comparison is made with the 2003-based projections.

2.2.2 The 2003-based population projections showed an increase in population between 2003 - 2023 of 182700 people. However, the 2004-based population projections show a projected increase in population between 2004 - 2024 of 239000 people. Furthermore, the new 2006-based population projections show that by 2021, the population of Wales will be 3,186000, a substantial increase when compared to the 2003 projections which shows the population in 2023 as being 3,120700 - a difference of some 65300 people and estimated to occur two years earlier. In addition to this, the population in 2026 is shown as being 3248,000, which, between the 20 year period of 2006 and 2026, equates to a population rise of 9.5%. This represents a higher percentage rise in the respective 20 year periods when compared with the 2003-based population projections, which show a 6.2% increase. This significant increase would indicate that the next calculation of household projections for South East Wales would be considerably higher than the 2003-based household projections.

2.2.3 Even though the apportionment exercise was undertaken using the latest household projections that the WAG has produced, the HBF believes that the new population projections must be considered if the Vale of Glamorgan is to provide sufficient housing for its future population. The latest SEWSPG dwelling completions and household change exercise, which the Vale of Glamorgan council has accepted, provides a projection based on the 2003-basd population projections up to the date 2021. However, the Preferred Strategy has a base date of 2011-2026, which runs 5 years beyond the SEWSPG regional dwelling apportionment period. As a result of this, any new housing projections that are produced by the Welsh Assembly will have an even greater impact on the Vale of Glamorgan, especially in the final years of the plan.

2.2.4 It is clear that considering the evidence from the increase in households as shown by the 2004-based population projections and the increase shown by the 2006-based population projections, that the ensuing household projections for the 2006-base date will also be higher. In light of this, the HBF believes that it would be more prudent for the LDP to provide even greater flexibility for the plan period, as the increase in households expected as a result the 2006-based population projections, will no doubt have a marked impact on the dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan, especially as its plan period runs more in-line with the time frame of the new population projections than it does with the 2003-based projections.

2.3 Local Housing Market Assessment

2.3.1 The Population and Household Projections Topic Paper lists eight different housing requirement options, of which the council has chosen one they believe to be most suited to the development of the Vale of Glamorgan However, the HBF believes that the overall housing growth figure as given by the emerging Local Housing Market Assessment should also be included, as this is a key document that must be used to inform Local Development Plans.

2.3.2 The Vale of Glamorgan, in partnership with Council Cardiff Council has undertaken a Local Housing Market Assessment with the help of the consultancy firm Fordham Research. The HBF has been part of the consultation process in relation to the assessment and has been assured that the assessment has been conducted in line with the WAG Guidance – Local Housing Market Assessment Guide (March 2006).

2.3.3 The Local Housing Market Assessment enables authorities to derive overall figures for the number of households requiring additional housing in their areas, and to determine what this means in terms of housing provision. Based upon this assessment, authorities will then have the basis to develop sound planning policies in their Local Development Plans.

2.3.4 Paragraph 2.5 on page 3 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper describes the National Policy context a Local Authority should adhere to when assessing future housing requirements. Bullet point 5 on page 4 of the Topic Paper states that local housing requirement assessments are a key factor in planning for the provision of new housing. In this context, ‘local housing requirement assessments’, directly refers to Local Housing Market Assessments, as stated within MIPPS Housing 01/2006, page 3, paragraph 9.2.1, sixth bullet point, sub – reference 13. Page 9, paragraph 6.1 also states that the council has prepared a Local Housing Market Assessment in partnership with Cardiff City Council to identify future housing needs.

2.3.5 In chapter 22 of the latest draft of the Local Housing Market Assessment, the analysis suggests that the house building rate for the Vale of Glamorgan could be upwards of 855 new dwellings, based on the demand and need. This figure represents a marked increase on the house building rate proposed by the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group dwelling apportionment (500 dwellings per annum).

2.3.6 Considering the information above, it is clear that the Welsh Assembly Government believes the Local Housing

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Market Assessment is essential to the formation of robust policies and a sound Local Development Plan. In addition to this, the Council has stated the importance and requirement of undertaking a Local Housing Market Assessment to assessing the future housing needs and requirements of the Local Authority and to properly comply with national guidance. As such, the HBF believes that the figure derived from the emerging LHMA, in relation to the overall house building requirement, should be included for consideration within the draft Preferred Strategy. The Federation understands that the draft LHMA covers a 5 – year period, however, it gives a thorough account of housing need and demand for those 5 years. It would therefore seem plausible that if this level of house building is not achieved within the LHMA 5 year period, the backlog of the housing not built would roll onto the next LHMA and its 5-year period, which might result in an even higher overall housing requirement figure.

2.3.7 Suggested Change

Include the overall house building target (855 dwellings per year) as given by the emerging Local Housing Market Assessment, as an option for consideration within the Population and Household Projection Topic Paper, in order for it to be considered as an option for housing provision within the draft Preferred Strategy.

2.4 Anomalies with the Topic Paper Figures - the household to dwelling ratio

2.4.1 In terms of the Councils preferred growth option, the HBF has a fundamental issue with the way in which the Vale of Glamorgan has arrived at the dwelling figure, in light of the projection for households.

2.4.2 In order to allow for issues such as vacancy and sharing rates, it is normally the case for the dwelling figure to be higher than the household figure. However, in the Regional Requirement option as given within the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper, this is not the case. In every other growth option put forward by the Council within the Topic Paper, the dwelling requirement is greater than the household increase by roughly 4.5%. Appendix 1 below shows page 5 of a paper prepared by the SEWSPG in relation to the housing apportionment process. As you can see from the information in the first box, the number of dwellings shown for the Vale of Glamorgan is higher than the number of households, again roughly by a factor of 4.5%. In addition to this, the 2001 Census shows that for the Vale of Glamorgan the total number of households stood at 48,753 and the total number of dwellings at 2001 stood at 50,979. Again this represents roughly a 4.5% increase in dwellings when compared to households.

2.4.3 However, within the ‘Regional Figure’ the dwelling requirement is roughly 4.6% lower than the household figure. The HBF cannot find any logic to suggest why the dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan should be lower than the household figure and therefore believes the use of the Regional Figure as a suitable development rate for the Vale of Glamorgan is highly questionable.

2.4.4 Further evidence to support this can be found when looking more closely at the issue of vacancy rates. If you study Appendices 2 through to 7, every ‘standard Chelmer report’ shows a vacancy rate of 4.4 with the exception of ‘standard Chelmer report’ in Appendix 6 which shows a vacancy rate of 3.35 for the periods ending 2021 and 2026. The formula for deriving households from dwellings in the Chelmer reports is seen as follows.

Dwellings = Households x (1-sharing rate/100(1-1/sharing factor)) / (1-vacancy rate/100)

Therefore, if the vacancy rate for the last two periods within the ‘standard Chelmer report’ in Appendix 6 is set at 4.4, a rough calculation of the resultant dwellings would be as follows:-

2021 = 62233

2026 = 64759

As a result of this, for an overall increase in households of 7844, the resultant overall increase in dwellings would be 8203 or 547 dwellings per annum.

2.4.5 This can be qualified to a certain extent by comparing the figures to those within the Assumed Migration from 2000 - 2004 Growth Option on page 18 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper. Chapter 4.7.6 states that from a household increase of 7638, the Chelmer projection predicts the resultant dwelling increase would be 7986 dwellings or 532 dwellings per annum. As you can see the ratio of dwellings to households is very similar that of the example above. Indeed, throughout the Topic Paper, there seems to be a common percentage increase in dwellings as a result of households on all the Growth Options, except the Regional Figure. In each case, dwellings are greater than households by roughly 4.5%, which is also the case when applied to the new calculation of the Regional Figure growth option given in paragraph 2.4.4 above.

2.4.6 As stated above, a vacancy rate of 3.35 has been included within the ‘standard Chelmer report’ in Appendix 6 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic for the periods ending 2021 and 2026. However, within the first box Appendix 1 below, the vacancy rate for the Vale of Glamorgan is shown as 4.42 between the periods 2001 – 2021. Considering this it would appear that the inclusion of a vacancy rate of 3.35 towards the end of the period of the Regional Figure would be

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inappropriate.

2.4.7 The HBF understands that the Council would have an aspiration to reduce vacancy rates to a more appropriate level, however, it would seem that the vacancy rate of 3.35 has been chosen largely to skew the resultant dwelling requirement to fit a build rate of roughly 2500 per 5-year period, which would equal the 500 dwelling apportionment given within the latest SEWSPG housing apportionment exercise. This assumption is made on the basis that there is nothing within the Topic Paper explaining why the vacancy rate has been reduced, nor is there anything within the Preferred Strategy explaining (or making a reference to) any strategy the Council has to reduce vacancy rates over the lifetime of the plan. In addition, within every other Growth Option the vacancy rate remains constant at 4.4, which would indicate that the reduction seen within the Regional Figure Growth Option is present to allow the resultant dwelling requirement to match that of the SEWSPG Regional Figure.


In this context, the HBF believes that unless the Council can provide an explanation within the Preferred Strategy or the Topic Paper of why the vacancy rate has been reduced to 3.35 for the Regional Figure Growth Option, the vacancy rate should be returned to 4.4 and the resultant dwelling figures re-calculated and included within the Topic Paper.

2.5 Anomalies with the data used within Figure 6 - Components of Population Change – page 9

2.5.1 In each of the migration options, the end year in the period is taken at 2004, however, in figure 6 on page 9 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper, there are information extends another year to 2005. This can be seen with

• the Assumed Migration Option on page 14, where 1985-2004 is used as a 20 year period, instead of 1986-2005• Assumed Migration Option on page 16, where 1995-2004 is used as a 10 year period, instead of 1996-2005• Assumed Migration Option on page 18, where 2000-2004 is used as a 5 year period, instead of 2001-2005.

2.5.2 If these growth options were worked out using the more up to date periods, the assumed migration and the net in-migration forecasts would be substantially different. E.G

• Assumed Migration option on page 14, where the period is changed to 1986 – 2005 – the total migration would be 3527, the assumed migration would be 176 and the Chelmer projection 5 year forecast would be 880. • Assumed Migration option on page 16, where the period is changed to 1996 – 2005 – the total migration would be 6683, the assumed migration would be 668 and the Chelmer projection 5 year forecast would be 3340. • Assumed Migration option on page 18, where the period is changed to 2001 – 2005 – the total migration would be 4212, the assumed migration would be 842 and the Chelmer projection 5 year forecast would be 4210.

2.5.3 There is nothing within the Preferred Strategy or the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper to suggest why these specific periods have been used. The HBF would suggest that the latest information should be used in any calculations to ensure the resultant figures are as up to date as they can be.


The HBF would like clarification on why the specific periods above have been used in the growth option calculations. The HBF also believes that the latest information should be used if the resultant calculations/projections are going to be accurate and up-to-date.

2.6 The Regional Figure

2.6.1 The HBF has voiced its concern with the way SEWSPG has apportioned the Welsh Assembly Government’s regional household projection within the paragraphs above. National Guidance states that the apportionment of the regional household protection should be the starting point for Local Authorities to assess their housing market, in tandem with many other factors in order to arrive at an appropriate house building rate for their LDP.

2.6.2 It is clear from the work shown in the Topic Paper, that the basis for choosing the SEWSPG regional apportioned figure as a suitable development rate for the Vale of Glamorgan, is not the result of any assessment of the housing market or economic analysis, nor does it bear any relation to future migration patterns. The reason for choosing the ‘Regional Figure’ seems to be based solely on the fact that it has been apportionment by the SEWSPG.

2.6.3 Considering this, the HBF has fundamental concerns with the chosen house building figure, as it does not appear represent the needs and demands of the housing market, the needs of the local economy or any issues relating to unmet needs.

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2.6.4 In relation to the SEWSPG Local Authority dwelling requirement, the amount of dwellings proposed for the Vale of Glamorgan between 2001 and 2021 is 11861 (Appendix 2 below, second box). From this, the HBF understands that the build rates between 2001 and 2006 were deducted from the 11861 total, to leave a 15 year dwelling requirement for each local authority. However, studying the table in the second box of appendix 2 below, this methodology seems to be correct for every local authority apart from the Vale of Glamorgan. If past build rates within the table from 2001 to 2006 for the Vale of Glamorgan are added together, the resultant figure is 3204 and not 4271 as shown in the extract from the table below.

Note :See Scanned document or original form for table

As a result, the overall dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan would be 8657 dwellings or 577 per annum and not 7590 or 500 dwellings per annum.

2.6.5 In order to provide more accurate figures, the past build rates highlighted in red in second box in Appendix 1 for the Vale of Glamorgan can be substituted for actual information on build rates from the JHLAS study for 2006. The figures taken from the Vale of Glamorgan JHLAS report 2006 are as follows• 2001 – 2002 = 700• 2002 – 2003 = 713 • 2003 – 2004 = 509• 2004 – 2005 = 411• 2005 – 2006 = 506

2.6.6 The total past build rate as given by the figures above is 2839. When subtracted from 11861 the resultant dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9022 dwellings or 601 dwellings per annum.

2.6.7 Within paragraph 4.6.8 on page 17 of the Population and Household Projections Topic Paper, the Council has stated that as its LDP period runs from 2011 to 2026, instead of 2006-2021, the ‘Regional Figure’ has been rolled on for the next 5 years. If this is the case, there is an argument to say that the past build rates between 2001 and 2006 should not be taken into account, as these will be picked up by the UDP allocation. Therefore, taking the Councils approach, the ‘Regional Figure’ should be rolled onto the last 5-year period in its entirety. This would mean that the dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan for the period 2011-2026 would be 8896 (11861/20 x 15) or 593 dwellings per annum.

2.6.8 As you can see from the evidence above, the soundness of the SEWSPG apportionment is highly questionable, particularly in the case of the Vale of Glamorgan. Therefore, the HBF believes that to use it as the sole basis for justification of the housing requirement for the LDP, is inappropriate and would seriously affect the soundness of the plan.

2.7 SEWSPG figures compared with the Census data.

2.7.1 Within the SEWSPG apportionment (box 1 in Appendix 1), the additional dwelling requirement from 2001-2021 is calculated by projecting the assumed households, then using the standard Chelmer formula to calculate what this would mean in terms of dwellings and then subtracting that from the dwellings at 2001, which is taken from council tax data. For the Vale of Glamorgan, the SEWSPG apportionment shows a dwelling count of 51739 at 2001 when compared with council tax data, however the census data for 2001 shows a dwellings count in the Vale of Glamorgan of 50979. When the Census data is used, the resulting dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan increases to 12623 dwellings for the 20-year period or 631 dwellings per annum.

2.7.2 When this figure is used to calculate the assumed average dwelling completions 2006-2021 (taking into account the corrected past build rate as given in paragraph 2.6.4), the resulting dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 12623 – 3204 = 9419 dwellings or 627 dwellings per annum.

2.7.3 Furthermore, when the correct dwelling completions for the Vale of Glamorgan are used, as given within paragraph 2.6.6 above, the resulting dwelling requirement increases to (12623 – 2839) = 9784 dwellings or 652 dwellings per annum.

2.7.4 Again, as stated within paragraph 2.6.7 above, this dwelling requirement could just be rolled over onto the next 5-year period, not taking into account past build rates for 2001-2006, as the LDP runs from 2011-2026, which would yield a dwelling requirement of 9465 dwellings or 631 dwellings per annum. The Council has agreed that the principle of this within paragraph 4.6.8 on page 17 of the Population and Household Projections Topic Paper.

2.8 The effect of the St. Athan development on assumed migration

2.8.1 The HBF Federation believes that the Assumed Migration for the 5 year period 2001 – 2005, might demonstrate a closer representation of what is likely to happen in the Vale of Glamorgan over the coming period. In terms of the ‘Regional Figure’ within Appendix 6, the figure for net migration from 2001-2006 is shown as 3894. However, the net migration falls to 1736 and 1838 for the periods 2011-2016 and 2016 – 2021 respectively.

2.8.2 The development brief for the St Athan development states that Training Academy proposals will generate a total site

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population of just over 10,000 people, of which 6,700 people would be living within the site. The brief states that the project will have a significant impact on jobs and the local economy and states that the LDP will take account of all the implications of the proposed development, including housing provision. In addition to this, paragraph 7.4 of the draft Preferred Strategy discusses an economic report commissioned by the Council, which states the development at St. Athan and projected passenger growth at Cardiff International Airport, will increase the demand for employment land over the next 5 – 10 years. Considering this, the Federation would envisage that an increase in net migration rather than a decrease would be a more appropriate estimation of the pattern of future migration for the Local Authority. The HBF believes that the rise in households expected as a result of the St Athan development and the economic and social benefits would act as a substantial incentive to attract in-migration to the Vale. Therefore, to suggest that a drop in net migration by approximately 55% and 53% over the next 5-10 years would be experienced within the Local Authority would be seem largely unjustified.

2.8.3 The development brief states that the LDP will take account of all the implications for the development, including housing provision, however, the Council’s chosen dwelling requirement, based on the ‘Regional Figure’, seems to be at odds with this statement considering the evidence above.

2.9 Flaws with the Chelmer Projection

2.9.1 All the growth options within the Population and Household Projections Topic Paper are calculated using the Chelmer Model. However, the HBF has been reliably informed by the producers of the model, (the Population and Housing Research Group of the Anglia Ruskin University) that the version used by the Vale of Glamorgan, requires updating. The Federation has been informed that the group previously charged with maintaining and distributing the Model has disbanded and do not have the resources to update the Model with the necessary data. To this extent, the University would not allow the HBF to purchase a copy of a similar Chelmer Model (as the one used by the Vale of Glamorgan), because they are no longer supporting the Model or supplying it. It is the HBF understanding that the Population and Housing Research Group of the Anglia Ruskin University would need to supply a completely re-calibrated Chelmer Model for it to reflect the latest data available, however, they are not planning to undertake this work, nor they do not have the resources to do so.

2.9.2 The HBF understands that in the absence of an updated Model, there is little opportunity to identify the exact extent of any change in figures that an updated Model would produce. Although, the Federation would suggest that the taking into account the increase in population projections for 2004 and 2006 as described in the paragraphs above, a more likely assumption would be that migration-led dwelling requirements would increase rather than decrease.


The HBF would like these comments noted for future reference.

2.10 Conclusion

2.10.1 The Federation has fundamental concerns with the way in which the Council has simply justified the dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan on the basis that it conforms to the SEWSPG assumed dwelling requirement figure. The HBF has concerns with the process of the regional projection and the way in which it was originally carried out. The Federation also has fundamental concerns with the data used within the projection, as given in paragraph 2.6.4, which shows the dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan to be incorrect.

2.10.2 The HBF believes that information on the new population projections should be taken into account when deciding on an appropriate dwelling rate for the Vale of Glamorgan. Even though the ensuing household projections have not yet been published, the evidence given within the population projections should cause the Council to be more generous with their dwelling requirements, in order to provide more flexibility within the LDP to adapt to any variations that might occur.

2.10.3 In terms of the suggested growth options within the Population and Household Projections Topic Paper, the Federation has provided a substantial amount of evidence to re-assess and include new, more relevant growth options.

2.10.4 The ‘Regional Figure’ which is the council’s preferred option, has a substantial number of flaws within it and the HBF objects to its use as the dwelling requirement for the LDP. The Federation also has a number of issues with the migration led figures, which are misrepresented within the Topic Paper.

2.10.5 In terms of growth options, the HBF has listed a number of variations within the evidence above. These are:-• 8203 dwellings or 547 dwellings per annum - The dwelling increase as a result of the anomaly with the vacancy rate – paragraphs 2.4.4 – 2.4.7 above• 8657 dwellings or 577 dwellings per annum – The dwelling increase as a result of the using the correct past build rate figure within the SEWSPG regional apportionment – paragraph 2.6.4 above• 8896 dwellings or 593 dwellings per annum – Rolling the correct SEWSPG regional apportionment on to the next 5-year period as stated within paragraph 2.6.7 above• 9022 dwellings or 601 dwellings per annum – The dwelling increase after using actual build rates within the SEWSPG regional apportionment – paragraph 2.6.6 above

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• 9419 dwellings or 627 dwellings per annum – The dwelling increase after comparing the SEWSPG regional apportionment with the Census data – paragraph 2.7.2 above• 9465 dwellings or 631 dwellings per annum - Rolling the SEWSPG regional apportionment (as compared with the Census) on to the next 5-year period as stated within paragraph 2.7.4 above• 9784 dwellings or 652 dwellings per annum –The dwelling increase after using actual build rates within the SEWSPG regional apportionment (as compared with the Census data) – paragraph 2.7.3 above• 12825 dwellings or 855 dwellings per year – The dwelling requirement as given by the Local Housing Market Assessment – paragraph 2.3.7 above

2.10.6 In short, the HBF has a fundamental concern with the Councils chosen house building figure, as it does not appear represent the needs and demands of the housing market, the needs of the local economy or the social considerations in terms of unmet needs. The evidence relating to the miscalculations within the SEWSPG apportionment process highlight these concerns, and calls into question the soundness of the process and hence the soundness of the dwelling requirement and the plan.

2.10.7 The range of dwelling requirements provided above by the HBF, (with the exception of the Local

55/1284/DPS -1

Representation Comments:No, Redrow Homes do not agree with the Council’s proposed future housing requirement.

The Ministerial Interim Planning Policy Statement on Housing (MIPPS) states that Sub-National household projections should be used as a starting point for assessing housing requirements (paragraph 9.2).

The Regional Housing Requirement, which was developed by the South East Wales Spatial Planning Group (SEWSPG), is based upon household projections, however, we have concerns about the robustness of the methodology employed in order to derive this figure. Most notably, there appears to be no rationale behind the apportionment process and key stakeholders have not been consulted properly. In addition to this, the apportioned figures have not been subjected to appropriate scrutiny or testing. Consequently, we do not believe the apportionment has been produced in a manner anticipated by the national policy guidance contained within MIPPS (Housing). The housing figures proposed by the Council have arisen through a non-statutory process and we have concerns about them being carried forward into an LDP without a proper mechanism for scrutiny and testing being in place.

Further to this, it is unclear as to how the Council will review the housing figure regularly as required by government guidance, as is stated in the draft Preferred Strategy. The Council contends that the housing figure could be amended should the underlying demographic information change, however it is uncertain as to how this could be done in advance of an LDP review.Not only are there concerns about the apportionment process, it is also considered that there are statistical anomalies within the resultant dwelling requirement figures that need to be clarified. The dwelling requirement figure summarised in figure 15 of the Council’s Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper is approximately 10% lower than the apportioned household growth. This is surprising given that dwelling numbers are usually higher than household numbers to take account of the vacancy rates etc.

An earlier version of the apportionment figures set out the housing distribution across South East Wales for the 2001-2021 period and then the residual requirement for the period 2006-2021, taking into account completions for the period 2001-2006. If this calculation had been undertaken in a consistent manner to the other authorities, then the housing requirement figure would be at least 1,000 dwellings higher. This again suggests that there is something seriously flawed with the SEWSPG housing apportionment figure.

Whilst alternative household projections have been undertaken, these appear to have been quickly disregarded by the Council. The Council also appear to have disregarded the findings of their own Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) in relation to the recommended provision of open market housing, whilst still using it to justify their emerging affordable housingpolicies.

In accordance with TAN 2: Affordable Housing:“Local planning authorities should ensure that development plan policies are based upon an up to date assessment of the full range of housing requirements across the plan period. LHMAs provide the evidence base supporting policies to deliver affordable and market housing throughthe planning system”.

The Council refers to having undertaken a joint LHMA with Cardiff County Council in paragraph 9.1 of the draft Preferred Strategy. This document has not yet been made publicly available, however it is believed that it sets out a total new housing

Rep No:

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requirement of 855 dwellings per annum. The Council also states in paragraph 9.3 of the draft strategy that there is an existing need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale. If this is the case then providing 500 dwellings per annum in total will come nowhere near to meeting the needs for either open market or affordable housing.

It is quite clear that the Council have not taken the implications of the LHMA, or indeed any robust evidence base, into account when assessing the overall level of housing to be provided over the plan period.

Therefore it is suggested that the Council reviews the proposed level of housing provision based upon a more robust evidence base than the SEWSPG apportionment.

55/1573/DPS -2

Representation Comments:Objection is made to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011 – 2026 which is considered to be too low. In addition there is a discrepancy between the apportionment of household growth and the dwelling requirement figure.

The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.

A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

The major £14 billion development scheme proposed at St Athan was announced in 2007 after the household figures had been agreed by SEWSPEG in 2006, therefore its impact on dwelling requirement and regional apportionment has not been taken into account. It is likely that the development will lead to a higher level of in-migration throughout the LDP period above than anticipated by SEWSPEG.

In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.

In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.

There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

Rep No:

79/1629/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The Vale proposed policy is being driven by Central Government Guidance. Alternative approaches are needed with locally based knowledge.

Rep No:

80/1699/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Danger of over population resulting in loss of countryside, agricultural land etc. South East Wales is Wales most populous area. Protecting and enhancing this countryside is important for the quality of life.

Rep No:

110/1807/DPS -1

Representation Comments:But major thought has to be given to affordable housing as well as sustainability. One must also investigate the transport and waste needs of increasing housing.

Rep No:

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137/1905/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Whilst the draft housing market requirement figure appears to be in line with the current forecasts the present housing market in the Vale of Glamorgan points to the need for more affordable housing particularly in the rented sector. More houses for rent are needed not flats. There is a current surplus of flats and this needs to be addressed in the Draft Preferred Strategy. I would also support a new rural development to assist with the demand for housing in the western Vale that will be created by the arrival of the Defence Training Academy.

Rep No:

170/2207/DPS -1

Representation Comments:8.3-8.6 SE Wales authorities are pressing for housing expansion to be directed to regenerate the Valleys, against house-builders who want to respond to the market preference for homes in the Severnside counties. The LDP should support strategic emphasis on the Valleys and not meet market pressures for "in-migrants". The Vale cannot accommodate the "market" demands as well as meeting needs for affordable housing, but give the latter priority in accordance with PPW as amended by the MIPPS.

Rep No:

178/2391/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Para 8.6 We consider that the SEWSPG apportionment of 8% (7,500) of the SEWSPG regional new dwellings figure for to the Vale of Glamorgan for the 2011-2016 plan period is too high and inconsistent with the Wales Spatial Plan view restated in para 6.4 of the VOG Population and Housing Projections Paper (Dec 2007), that" the Vale is predominantly a rural authority and suffers pressure from housing growth and the need to sustain a rural economy" It continues by advising that" THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS RURAL ENVIRONMENT FROM A LEISURE/TOURISM AND CULTURAL PERSPECTIVE, GIVEN THE ATTRACTIVE HERITAGE COAST AND IMPORTANT LANDSCAPES, CANNOT BE OVERESTIMATED".

This view is also reflected in Planning Policy Wales (March 2002) for example para 2.4.5 "The countryside is a dynamic and multi-purpose resource. In line with sustainability principles, IT MUST BE CONSERVED AND WHERE POSSIBLE ENHANCED FOR THE SAKE OF ITS ECOLOGICAL, GEOLOGICAL, PHYSIOGRAPHIC, HISTORICAL, ARCHAEOLOGICAL AND AGRICULTURAL VALUE AND FOR ITS LANDSCAPE AND NATURAL RESOURCES, BALANCING THE NEED TO CONSERVE THESE ATTRIBUTES AGAINST THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND RESCREATIONAL NEEDSOF LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND VISITORS.We therefore strongly advise that the number of new dwellings in the Vale in the Plan period should not be more than 6,500 (as in the UDP), which is consistent with our recommendation for the adoption of LDP Strategy Option1, similar to the UDP strategy, which has served the Vale well to meet needs while protecting its rural, landscape, cultural and historic nature. and environment.

While it is true that the Vale is an attractive and sought after place to live, and is therefore especially attractive to property developers, overdevelopment can degrade or destroy those very features which make it so attractive.

We see no compelling reason in the Population and Housing Projections Paper (Dec 2007) to increase the new housing figure above 6500 as in the UDP

Rep No:

182/2560/DPS -1

Representation Comments:We are aware that the HBF have submitted objections to the proposed level of housing on account of the process of apportionment at the sub-regional level, the inevitable implications for higher household growth arising from more up to date population projections, assumptions regarding vacancy and the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment. The level of housing must therefore be reviewed and accordingly we view the proposed 7,500 dwellings as a minimum.

Population Growth and Housing Provision

We are aware of that the Home Builders Federation have raised objections as to the level of new housing proposed within the Preferred Strategy. These objections stem from:• the manner and rigor with which the regional apportionment of housing iscalculated by SEWSPG;• The implications of more up to date population projections which when translated to household forecasts will inevitably result in a higher housing requirements than presently estimated;• The evidence contained in the Local Housing Market Assessment for both Cardiffand the Vale of Glamorgan which suggests demand for over 800 dwellings per annum; and• The assumptions made in translating household growth to the number of newhomes required an account of adjustments to vacancy rates.

Rep No:

Page 9 of 45


Together the reasons point towards a compelling need to review the level of housing proposed for the plan area between 2011 and 2016. Until such a review has beencompleted and the necessary evidence base put in place, the 7500 dwellings presently set out in the Preferred Strategy must be seen as a minimum level of housing.

182/2635/DPS -2

Representation Comments:There is a strong objection to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011 – 2026 which is considered to be too low. Paragraph 9.2.1 of the Ministerial Interim Planning Policy Statement 01/2006 Housing identifies a number of factors that local authorities should take into account in planning the provision for new housing including the following:• Lo cal housing requirements (needs and demands)• The needs of the local and national economy:•Social considerations (including unmet need)

Paragraph 9.2.2 of the Statement states the following : “The latest Assembly Government National and Sub-National Household Projections for Wales should form the starting point for assessing housing requirements”.

It is therefore quite clear that the regional housing figure is the starting point for consideration of the housing provision for each local authority and not the end point. The justification for the draft strategy dwelling requirement is that the Vale of Glamorgan Council is obliged to use the regional figure – a figure which has not been subject to any independent scrutiny or formal means of challenge and is one that was put forward by the officers of the Vale of Glamorgan to the South East Wales Spatial Planning Group in any event, and thus is self fulfilling.

There is also a discrepancy between the process of agreeing the apportionment of household growth and how the dwelling requirement figure is derived from the increase in households. Normally the dwelling requirement is greater than the increase in households to allow for vacant properties. This is not the case with the Vale of Glamorgan’s apportionment. The “agreed" apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 – 2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement is only 500 dwellings per annum which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.

This anomaly is evident in Appendix 6 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper. In model 5 i.e. the Regional Requirement, the Chelmer Report shows the increase in households over the plan period i.e. 7844 to be greater than the increase in dwellings 7500 and to achieve this the vacancy rate is decreased from 4.4% to 3.35%. In all the other 7 models the increase in dwellings is greater than the increase in households and the vacancy rates remain at 4.4% throughout the forecast period. The anomaly is further illustrated by model 4 which is based on the assumed migration rate from 1995 – 2004 and gives a similar dwelling requirement over the planned period i.e. 7440dwellings yet the vacancy rate remains constant throughout at 4.4% and the forecast increase in households of 7116 is less than the increase in dwellings.

The household apportionment of 9940 households simply will not be accommodated at a build rate of500 per annum. In all of the other 7 Models the relationship between the increase in dwellings and households is 1.045. The average annual increase in households is 552 per annum and when the above ratio is applied the dwelling requirement is 577 per annum. This raises the total dwelling requirement for the plan period to 8655 to accommodate the agreed apportionment of the increase in households.

A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The vacancy rate is 4.42 for the Vale of Glamorgan and the dwelling requirement is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

There is no explanation of how the 500 dwelling per annum requirement has been derived. The Leprosies should be open and transparent and there should be a full and detailed explanation of how the figure has been derived. It should have been derived at a regional level following independent scrutiny. It is not sufficient to merely state that there is reliance on a regional figure which has not been subject to scrutiny and to formal consultation. We consider this to be grounds for the LDP to be unsound.

The Ministerial Interim Statement recognises that the household projections are the starting point forth assessment of household requirements and it is also necessary to take into account the needs of the local and national economy and local housing requirements.

A major economic initiative is due to take place at St. Athan with the £14 billion Defence Training Academy and the Aerospace Centre of Excellence which was announced in 2007 after the household figures had been agreed by SEWSPG

Rep No:

Page 10 of 45


in 2006. This area is now recognised in the draft Wales Spatial Plan as one of only three Strategic Opportunity Areas in the whole of South East Wales. The apportionment process therefore cannot have taken into account the impact of these major economic initiatives on the housing market. The draft housing requirement figure of 7500 implies a substantial reduction in net in migration into the Vale. Over the LDP plan period it assumes an average annual net in migration of 694 per annum. Over the period 2001 –2005 the annual average rate of migration into the Vale was 842 per annum. It is inconceivable that these levels of net in migration will reduce with the economic initiatives due to take place. The Development Brief for St. Athan states there will be a total site population of just over 10000 people, of which 6700 people would be living within the site, leaving 3300 people working on site and living outside in the surrounding area. There will also be spin off impact on contractors and suppliers. To ignore this very major impact is again leaving the LDP open to a fundamental challenge of lack of soundness. The Development Brief identifies the requirement for 815 single family accommodation units outside the camp and it is estimated there will be an additional requirement for at least 700 units for staff moving into the area to work at the camp which in total gives a requirement for an additional 1500 units as a direct result of this major economic initiative. Whilst the part 2 proposals for St Athan have not yet been approved we consider that it would be prudent for the LDP to make full provision for the impact of both parts of the Statham project.


In conclusion therefore, it is evident that there are major areas where an unsound approach has been taken which cumulatively lead to a substantial shortfall in the assessment of the dwelling requirements. The areas are:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for, and is based on an arbitrary, unchallenged process.(b) No consideration or allowance has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the proposed housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.

There is therefore a very strong objection raised to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings. It is considered that in order to properly take on board all of these factors a housing requirement of 11000dwellings for the plan period will need to be incorporated into the plan.

182/2905/DPS -3

Representation Comments:The proposed housing requirement of 7,500 new dwellings has been based on the SEWSPG figure for the Vale of Glamorgan. However, The SEWSPG figures are provided not as a target, but as a working hypothesis. It is considered that there is potential for an additional housing requirement over and above this figure during the plan period. This is evidenced by the rate of completions to April 2005 and the average medium and short- term build rates for the area.

Rep No:

231/3087/DPS -1

Representation Comments:More houses should be built into existing aging community central to M4 with community views to NSE and West. No fear ever of flooding central to many industries. Bryn Hawddyar Ruthin, Vale of Glamorgan being an ideal site easy commuting to major centres, not enough choice regarding executive homes in exclusive areas such as above mentioned.

Rep No:

576/3304/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The Vale as well as the whole S.E. Wales Region and large areas of the UK, is becoming over populated and congested, with loss of open space, countryside, agricultural land, attractive landscape and wildlife. This works against the efforts to increase biodiversity. The whole area is being converted from a rural green lung of S.E. Wales to an urban metropolis. We have to think what will it be like after two more LDPs?

Population growth figures, arising from expansion and immigration policies are being passed on to the Vale by Central Government Guidance, implying that there is no escape. Alternative approaches are needed to accommodate population pressures.

See attached press cutting with rep form.

Rep No:

1165/3854/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Your supporting paper:

Rep No:

Page 11 of 45


www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/living_menu/planning/planning_policy/local_development_plan.aspx

is not available via this link and so I cannot review the evidence that this is the requirement. I think that every effort should be made to minimise the number of new dwellings required as these opportunities should be used to spread prosperity into the valleys and objective one areas and out of the overheated local economy.

1216/3882/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Whilst I agree with the proposed requirement of 7,500 new dwellings, I do not accept that this figure can be used in isolation - there must be a structured view of how such figures can be achieved - in what numbers and where. The benefit of a major site (s) cannot be underestimated - see also comment at Q6.

See also additional comments at Q11.

Rep No:

1490/3910/DPS -1

Representation Comments:We disagree with Site I.D. No. 2409/CS1 being included within the Regional Housing Requirement Figure identified in paragraph 8.3. The reasons for this are as follows:1) such site, at present has no direct access whatsoever.2) if the owner of this site, at present resident at 16 Meadow Court, were to create access e.g. by relocating his garage, any access so created could be very narrow (i.e. a single lane) and pass between his relocated garage and an electricity sub-station.3) there are already severe parking problems at this end of Meadow Court - already a cul-de-sac.4) any development of this site would lead to an unacceptable increase in traffic density in what is a quiet residential road.5) any buildings developed on the site would be directly overlooking and in unacceptable close proximity to the houses and bungalows on Ewenny Road.

Rep No:

1526/3920/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households. A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.



In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.

Rep No:

Page 12 of 45



1585/6026/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households. A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.



In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


Rep No:

1775/3988/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Paragraph 8.3I wish to strongly object to any housing development. It would alter the character of this rural village and put enormous stress on the already busy main road through the village. We are a close village community and further housing would alter this. The school is not equipped to take more children and there are no amenities to support such housing development. Villages like ours are dying out due to the influx of housing and I would urge you to consider the detrimental effect it would have on our village community.

Rep No:

1877/214/DPS -1

Representation Comments:8.4 The future employment surely would come from the present workforce who already live in the Vale and the un-employed in the area. There has been a huge increase in houses built in the Vale in the last 10 years.

Rep No:

1892/3999/DPS -1

Representation Comments:This is likely to be insufficient over the plan period.

Rep No:

1960/575/DPS -1

Representation Comments:

Rep No:

Page 13 of 45


My representation relates to Paragraph 8.3 Population 8.3 Population and Housing projections. If the jobs do not arrive at St Athan then the inward migration of people will be fewer in number and the need for housing less also.

2075/919/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Unsure as I have no expertise and am assuming the Vale Council has to meet targets for 2011-2026 set down by the Welsh Assembly Government.

It seems sensible to focus house building at settlements on the main roads across the Vale, including my own Ystradowen.

Whilst having no brief for the wishes of developers, it does seem to be reasonable to expect the Vale Council to give serious consideration to the Llandow Village scheme as a way of easing the scale of new house building in a number of Vale villages facing the most extensive growth in 2011-2026.

Rep No:

2163/1088/DPS -1



A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.



In conclusion therefore, it is evident that: (a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.

(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;

(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


Rep No:

2175/1285/DPS -1

Representation Comments:8.1 to 8.7 (see attached submission document) The Regional apportionment has been carried out without sufficient consultation.

WAG projections for the SE region indicate that high rates of growth are anticipated - 22% higher than the average annual rate of housing completions 1996 - 2005, during which time the Vale experienced an annual rate of 510 per annum. Annual completions between 2001 to 2006 averaged 568 dwellings.

Rep No:

Page 14 of 45


The anticipated annual completion rate of 500 dwellings per annum from the proposed housing requirement of 7,500 is therefore inadequate.

My Clients object on the grounds that the issues identified below should also be considered and included in Chapter 8 of the draft Strategy document.

The apportionment referred to in the Area Work on the WSP (paragraph 8.5 refers) has been agreed without sufficient consultation and there is consequently a soundness issue (See Question 10). The statistical basis for the SEWSPG apportionment has not been the subject of public consultation or Examination in Public, thus it can not be relied upon. Reference to this part of the framework in the context of soundness and sustainability is therefore misleading. The Strategy document must be revisited to ensure that it correctly reflects the status of background strategies.

Annual completions of new dwellings in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2001 to 2006 averaged 568 (2006 Agreed JHLA Study). WAG projections for the SE Wales region indicate that high rates of growth are anticipated 22% higher than the average annual rate of house completions in the period 1996 to 2005, during which the Vale experienced an annual rate of 510 per annum.

The proposed housing requirement of 7,500, resulting in an anticipated annual completion rate of 500 dwellings per annum is therefore inadequate to cater for the assumed general growth and does not match previous completion rates. Figures were derived mainly from a brief assessment of urban capacity in each area and on the aspirations for growth or containment of individual local authorities. Broadly it was agreed on a sub regional basis that the Valley areas of South Wales could accommodate the additional growth in order that areas such as the Vale, Cardiff and Monmouthshire could adopt comparatively low growth strategies.

Although it is acknowledged that the South Wales Valleys should be regenerated by appropriate levels of development, there is a major question mark as to whether growth can take place in these less marketable areas to offset development pressure in the Vale and other popular areas along the M4 corridor. The valley areas where a large amount of growth is proposed have major infrastructure and topographical constraints. Yet in the next 15 years it is assumed that through this process, i.e. by restricting development in the south, significant growth will take place in the valley areas to the extent that previous trends will be reversed, albeit that this would result in more commuter travel and further congestion around Cardiff and the M4.

Consequently no methodology has been applied which could establish whether the apportionment of the regional household projections is actually deliverable within the respective local authorities. It does not take into account market conditions which will be the key to realising household growth, and fails to examine economic forecasts and other trends to show how realistic the proposed amount of housing growth is within each local authority. In doing so there is a failure to recognise the central importance of growth in Cardiff and the coastal region to the development of an economically successful and sustainable ‘City Region’.

The aforementioned exercise was also based on 2003 – based population and housing projections from the Welsh Assembly Government. Since there have been two other sets of national population projections for Wales, 2004 and 2006 based projections, which both show a significantly higher population growth compared with the 2003 based projections and this is likely to be reflected in the higher household forecasts.

It is also noted that the Vale of Glamorgan’s LDP period is 2011 to 2026, rather than 2006 to 2021 as adopted by other local authorities in SE Wales. The SEWSPG apportionment figures do not therefore bear comparison with the timescale of the Vale’s Local Development Plan. Moreover new projections emerging from WAG are likely to show a more pronounced increase in household numbers, which has implications in the Vale, particularly in the latter part of the Plan period.

On the above basis my Client is of the view that a higher housing requirement figure needs to be incorporated in the draft Strategy to reflect housing completion rates over the previous 5 year period, to allow for a more realistic apportionment of regional needs, and to address higher anticipated projections of household growth. In this context a housing land target in the region of 10,000 new dwellings during the Plan period together with a 10% flexibility allowance would be appropriate as advocated by the Homebuilders Federation.

2177/1457/DPS -1

Representation Comments:This requirement is based on the VoG providing 8% of the SEWSPG regional figure. This proportion is too high given-

-The rural character of much of the authority-The roads and infrastructure levels of provision and constraints on development within the VoG-There are authorities north of the M4 in the valleys with towns where the population (particularly of working age) is falling and which should take a larger proportion of development to safeguard the sustainability of those communities.

Rep No:

Page 15 of 45


2231/1485/DPS -1

Representation Comments:It is not clear how the proposed housing provision is appropriate having regard to the evidence base, as the stated affordable housing requirement exceeds the intended build rate for all housing. The Assembly Government's national and sub-national household projections for Wales form a starting point for assessing housing requirements. Other evidence including local housing market assessments should be considered. Robustness will be increased where there is a transparent analysis of all the appropriate evidence, with a clear rationale demonstrating the conclusion. Please see our detailed response for further comments.

Rep No:

2232/1574/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Affordable Housing Para 9.3 Clarification is sought regarding the affordable housing figures. If 652 houses per year are to be provided that will result in the need for 9780 houses over the 15 year plan period, which exceeds the figure of 7500 proposed in paragraph 8.6.

Rep No:

2250/427/DPS -1

Representation Comments:This Council believes that the housing requirement of 7500 is too high. The figures have not been justified.

Rep No:

2252/89/DPS -1

Representation Comments:However, regular reviews of 'housing stock' in adjacent authorities would provide knowledge of whether any was more readily available which would reduce the demand in the Vale. The Town Council wonders whether there is information available to indicate the proportion of residents who migrate from neighbouring authorities to the Vale.

Rep No:

2253/1656/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Due to time constraints we have been unable to read the background papers which justify the population projections and the rationale behind them.

Rep No:

2260/1759/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Broadly accept strategy of 7,500 dwellings allocated by SEWSPG – 500 per year over 15 yr plan.

It is noted that the affordable housing need of 652 dwellings per year (para 9.3) exceeds the total target of 500 per year. If the allocated figure is correct all new dwellings should be affordable.

Rep No:

2265/1865/DPS -1

Representation Comments:There would seem to be much uncertainty with regard to population growth. See above question and answer.

Rep No:

2343/2313/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Whilst I accept that there is a need for future housing I am of the opinion that in the past we have been guilty of providing housing without taking into account all transport issues. I would prefer to see the transport infrastructure improved before we get housing as it cannot cope now!

Rep No:

2378/2358/DPS -1

Representation Comments:However, regular review of the housing evidence base must be undertaken to ensure supply of dwellings accords with demand within the authority area.

Rep No:

2396/2628/DPS -1Rep No:

Page 16 of 45


Representation Comments:NB The Department for the Economy and Transport (DE&T) submitted candidate site submissions for its landholdings in January 2006 as part of that process. Upper House Farm Rhoose formed one of those submissions and separate representations are being made in respect of this site as part of the submissions on its behalf together with consortium partners. No additional representations are being made directly in this submission.

DE&T's involvement in respect of the St Athan scheme is also being dealt with in separate representations.

The Council indicate that Preferred Strategy’s chosen option for addressing future housing provision is the only one that is considered to meet the guidance from the Wales Spatial Plan (WSP). Whilst it is accepted that this figure is that recommended by the South East Wales Strategic Policy Group (SEWSPG) and therefore is set within the context of a regional approach across South East Wales there are several dilemma’s created if this is taken forward as the guideline :-

Whilst SEWSPG has agreed the apportionment as the basis for work for each LPA to prepare its individual LDP’s the issue remains that these are voluntary arrangements and the only means of examining these will be through the LDP examination process. Without the knowledge that these voluntary levels will be achieved at a regional level and with no evidence at this stage provided from any public examination of an LDP, it is difficult to accept the levels quoted other than in terms of broad principles and with relevant caveats attached. To align with the projected regional level of household growth between 2011 and 2026 in the Vale based upon the SEWSG apportionment (8%) then an apportionment of 500 dwellings per year over the 15 year plan period is proposed.

Purely in terms of the identified level of affordable housing required from the draft Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) of 652 new affordable houses per annum this proposal falls considerably short. This figure needs to be clarified and its relationship to the 2500 projected minimum requirement in the plan period under Strategic Policy (CSP5).

The UDP allocation of 8000 over the 20 year period from 1991 -2011 represented an average requirement of 400 units per annum. During that time actual levels of house completion rates in the Vale have been running at an average of just under 500 units (487) per annum though since 2000 this level has been significantly higher @ 578 units pa. This latter period has been at a time when rates in Cardiff have been running at around 1800 units per annum on average (2001-2006) .

In respect of Strategic Policy CSP4 there is also a need for an explanation of the proposed phasing in three tranches of 2500. Given the known cycles of the housing market any loss of flexibility in terms of the timing for delivery of housing needs to be understood.

The policy title of CSP4 should be Housing "Requirement" not need as this policy should address both need and demand in both a local and regional context. An explanation of how the overall figure in CSP4 and the phasing policy together with the CSP 5 Policy on affordable housing needs to be given in terms of the evidential need (i.e. the figure of 652 units pa(?) (para 9.3) and the issue of rising house prices and its impact on the provision of affordable housing (para 5.4)

2397/2749/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The proposed housing requirement of 7500 new dwellings over the plan period (2011-2026) is an apportionment of the total SEWSPG figure for South East Wales. The SEWSPG figures are provided not as a target, but as a working hypothesis, and a number of options could be pursued. The selected option (500 dwellings per annum) is too low in that:

1. Since 2000, the rate of house completions in the Vale has been significantly higher on average (578) than the figure now proposed.

2. The proposal for a Defence Training Academy at St Athan could well lead to a more buoyant local economy, a higher level of in-migration and a greater demand for dwellings in the area.

3. Specifically, the new dwelling figure should include the required number of new dwellings for service families accommodation, which are understood to be required by the MoD in the early years of the plan period.

Rep No:

2423/2810/DPS -1

Representation Comments:History has shown allocations on previous similar occasions have proved to be inadequate.

This particular candidate site (2423 CS1) is currently visually unattractive and a development of executive style houses on the site would enhance the area generally and go some way towards meeting the demand for this type of dwelling in the Vale.

Rep No:

2434/501/DPS -1Rep No:

Page 17 of 45


Representation Comments:Objection is made to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011 – 2026 which is considered to be too low. In addition there is a discrepancy between the apportionment of household growth and the dwelling requirement figure.The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.



In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;C) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2436/579/DPS -1

Representation Comments:As an observation, the SEWSPG recommendation at para.8.6 for a requirement of 500 dwellings per annum would be for all types and forms of additional new dwellings in the Vale, whereas para 9.3 makes reference to an even greater annual increase for 'a need to provide 652 new affordable dwellings per year in the Vale'.

Also Policy CSP4 might be more appropriately worded as proposing 500 new dwellings per annum (as opposed to just the total figure for the 15 year period) in order to better reflect the annual monitoring of the policy and intended future phasing of the housing provision (see comment below specifically on Policy CSP4).

Rep No:

2442/709/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Generally we believe that population increase in the Vale will possibly be higher than that indicated, particularly considering the effects of the St Athan jobs generation and the increased immigration expected to this area. Many able and skilled (professional or not) workers and self-employed researchers I.T. specialists and young scientists will be attracted to this area, given the effects of huge jobs and related industries and services, to be established in St Athan and nearby areas. As indicated on our reply to q1, one area of Llandow (East of Llantwit Major Road), would be an ideal & appropriately sustainable location for this type of population increase.

Rep No:

2447/809/DPS -1

Representation Comments:History has shown allocations on similar previous occasions have proved to be inadequate. This particular candidate site would form a logical extension of the existing settlement being situated in a desirable area and without overloading existing services.

Rep No:

2448/885/DPS -1


Rep No:

Page 18 of 45


History has shown on previous similar occasions initial allocation has shown to be inadequate. The modest extension of existing settlements is to be preferred over a large development on a site unrelated to existing settlements.

2498/1204/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

Glamorgan Council has to use the regional figure – a figure which has not been the Question 2: Population Growth and Housing (Paragraphs 8.1 – 8.7).


In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:

(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;C) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


Rep No:

2499/1141/DPS -1

Representation Comments:In previous occasions house building has been inadequate. This particular candidate site being above the flood protection area would be eminently suitable to round off the development of Wyndham Park.

Rep No:

2500/1287/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The highway proposals & existing new development makes this site eminently suitable to extend industrial development at this location.

Rep No:

2500/1316/DPS -2

Representation Comments:The highway proposals & existing new development makes this site eminently suitable to extend industrial development at this location.

Rep No:

2500/1345/DPS -3


Rep No:

Page 19 of 45


The highway proposals & existing new development makes this site eminently suitable to extend industrial development at this location.

2501/1428/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Providing additional housing at Rhoose will help to absorb the housing development required in the Vale and contribute to creating a sustainable location.We consider that the housing requirement for the Vale should be raised. Paragraph 8.6 highlights the SEWSPG requirement for 7,500 dwellings. The SEWSPG figures are over the period 2006- 2021. It does appear that the Council has rolled this requirement forward to cover the LDP plan period 2011-2026. As currently proposed the Council will have lost some of the accelerated housing growth for the period 2006-2011. We question whether its appropriate to roll the housing requirement forwards to years beyond the scope of the SEWSPG period, which is to 2021.

The number of completions has also been high in the last five years and we believe that housing completions are an important indicator which should be factored into the need to provide an adequate supply of housing and also, as an indication of need. Planning Policy Wales also supports this approach.

Paragraph 9.3 identifies the need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale. The total proposed housing requirement of 500 dwellings per annum does not appear to reflect need and could mean that affordability issues may not be addressed. The LDP may not be able to meet objective 3, which seeks to meet the housing needs of people in the Vale. Increasing the overall housing requirement could help to tackle this issue.

Rhoose has been acknowledged as a primary settlement in the Preferred Strategy and the site could therefore help contribute to providing the required housing in the Vale.

Rep No:

2511/1530/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Paragraph 8.6 suggests 500 dwellings per annum as the LDP housing requirement, yet in paragraph 9.3 highlights a need to build 652 new affordable dwellings per year.

It is worth considering how the emissions from the projected 7500 new dwellings will be compensated for elsewhere in the LDP, to meet proposed local authority emissions reduction targets.

The average household (built to current building regulations) emissions are 4 tonnes of carbon dioxide per years, so 7500 dwellings could be responsible for as much as an extra 30,00 tonnes per year. This is an increase of 10% in domestic emissions from the current yearly figure of 309,000, and a 2 % increase in the Vale's total yearly emissions (Defra 'Local and Regional Co2 Emissions Estimates for 2005).

We suggest that the Vale considers a policy on improvements to existing buildings when planning permission is applied for-see Merton Borough Council. An indication should be also given of what national policy has been used to support this projected figure.

Rep No:

2514/1876/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

Rep No:

2518/1935/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Objection is made to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011

Rep No:

Page 20 of 45


– 2026 which is considered to be too low. In addition there is a discrepancy between the apportionment of household growth and the dwelling requirement figure.



In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a)The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b)No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c)No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2519/1975/DPS -1





In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:

(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing

Rep No:

Page 21 of 45


requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2521/2006/DPS -1




In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a)The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b)No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

Rep No:

2522/2034/DPS -1




In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable

Rep No:

Page 22 of 45


requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a)The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b)No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan the housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2523/2145/DPS -1





In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:

(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


Rep No:

2524/2173/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be in sufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the

Rep No:

Page 23 of 45


apportionment of the household projections.



In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c)No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2532/2233/DPS -1







There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan periods more realistic.

Rep No:

2533/2284/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Housing Requirement

Providing additional housing at Culverhouse Cross will help to absorb the housing development required in the Vale and

Rep No:

Page 24 of 45


contribute to creating an even more sustainable location.The housing requirement for the Vale should be raised. Paragraph 8.6 highlights the SEWSPG requirement of 7,500 dwellings over the period 2006-2021.

It is inappropriate for the Council to roll this requirement forwards and retro-fit it to the LDP plan period 2011-2026. As currently proposed the Council will have lost some of the accelerated housing growth for the period 2006-2011. Furthermore it is not appropriate to roll the housing requirement to years beyond the scope of the SEWSPG period, which is to 2021.

It cannot be assumed that one authority’s housing shortfall would be met by another authority as suggested in paragraph 6.3 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper.

Housing Completion

The number of completions has also been high in the last five years and should be factored into the provision of a future supply of housing. Planning Policy Wales advocates this approach.

Figure 1 below ( see original submission form) sets out the current and future housing trajectory and demonstrates the mismatch between demand and supply and that the proposed housing requirement does not accord with the regional apportionment, resulting in a shortfall of housing.

Affordable Housing

Paragraph 9.3 identifies a need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale. The source of affordable housing to meet this significant need is unspecified. The total proposed housing requirement of 500 dwellings per annum does not reflect need and will mean that affordability issues will not necessarily be addressed, and may worsen. The LDP will clearly not be able to deliver the amount of affordable housing required to meet objective 3, which seeks to meet the housing needs of people in the Vale. Increasing the overall housing requirement would help to tackle this issue. The provision of housing (including affordable hosing) at Culverhouse Cross will help to increase people’s choice due to its sustainable location, proximity to Cardiff and the type of product likely to be delivered. Focusing significant housing growth solely in Barry will serve only to limit people’s choice of housing location and product.

2536/2615/DPS -1

Representation Comments:1.The Population and Housing Background Paper

The Population and Housing Report focuses entirely on trying to project forward the population from 2011 to 2026 and then to assess the likely requirement for housing. This is done within the framework set by the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group (SEWSPG), a non-statutory alliance of local authorities and the Welsh Assembly Government, which attempts to distribute the Region’s population and housing growth between local authorities. Without going into too much detail, the Council has opted for a housing requirement of 500 dwellings per annum (or 7500 over the 15-year plan period) which is an increase in the 433 per annum in the UDP, but is less than the initial requirement of SEWSPG, which would have indicated about 569 dwellings per annum (or 8535 over the plan period). Another curious thing about the housing demand estimate is that it is less than the assessed demand for affordable housing, which the Council’s own Draft Local Housing Market Assessment indicates is 652 dwellings per annum (paragraph 9.3 of the Draft Strategy).

Rep No:

2543/3498/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Objection is made to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011 - 2026 which is considered to be too low. In addition there is a discrepancy between the apportionment of household growth and the dwelling requirement figure.

The "agreed" apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 - 2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.IA report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority 's dwelling requirement over the 2001 - 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 - 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

Rep No:

2544/3527/DPS -1Rep No:

Page 25 of 45


Representation Comments:3.2 The apportionment referred to in the Area Work on the WSP (paragraph 8.5 refers) has been agreed without sufficient consultation and there is consequently a soundness issue (See Question 10). The statistical basis for the SEWSPG apportionment has not been the subject of public consultation or Examination in Public, thus it can not be relied upon. Reference to this part of the framework in the context of soundness and sustainability is therefore misleading. The Strategy document must be revisited to ensure that it correctly reflects the status of background strategies.

3.3 Annual completions of new dwellings in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2001 to 2006 averaged 568 (2006 Agreed JHLA Study). WAG projections for the SE Wales region indicate that high rates of growth are anticipated 22% higher than the average annual rate of house completions in the period 1996 to 2005, during which the Vale experienced an annual rate of 510 per annum.

3.4 The proposed housing requirement of 7,500, resulting in an anticipated annual completion rate of 500 dwellings per annum is therefore inadequate to cater for the assumed general growth and does not match previous completion rates. Figures were derived mainly from a brief assessment of urban capacity in each area and on the aspirations for growth or containment of individual local authorities. Broadly it was agreed on a sub regional basis that the Valley areas of South Wales could accommodate the additional growth in order that areas such as the Vale, Cardiff and Monmouthshire could adopt comparatively low growth strategies.

3.5 Although it is acknowledged that the South Wales Valleys should be regenerated by appropriate levels of development, there is a major question mark as to whether growth can take place in these less marketable areas to offset development pressure in the Vale and other popular areas along the M4 corridor. The valley areas where a large amount of growth is proposed have major infrastructure and topographical constraints. Yet in the next 15 years it is assumed that through this process, i.e. by restricting development in the south, significant growth will take place in the valley areas to the extent that previous trends will be reversed, albeit that this would result in more commuter travel and further congestion around Cardiff and the M4.3.6�Consequently no methodology has been applied which could establish whether the apportionment of the regional household projections is actually deliverable within the respective local authorities. It does not take into account market conditions which will be the key to realising household growth, and fails to examine economic forecasts and other trends to show how realistic the proposed amount of housing growth is within each local authority. In doing so there is a failure to recognise the central importance of growth in Cardiff and the coastal region to the development of an economically successful and sustainable ‘City Region’. 3.7�The aforementioned exercise was also based on 2003 – based population and housing projections from the Welsh Assembly Government. Since there have been two other sets of national population projections for Wales, 2004 and 2006 based projections, which both show a significantly higher population growth compared with the 2003 based projections and this is likely to be reflected in the higher household forecasts.3.8�It is also noted that the Vale of Glamorgan’s LDP period is 2011 to 2026, rather than 2006 to 2021 as adopted by other local authorities in SE Wales. The SEWSPG apportionment figures do not therefore bear comparison with the timescale of the Vale’s Local Development Plan. Moreover new projections emerging from WAG are likely to show a more pronounced increase in household numbers, which has implications in the Vale, particularly in the latter part of the Plan period. 3.9�On the above basis my Clients are of the view that a higher housing requirement figure needs to be incorporated in the draft Strategy to reflect housing completion rates over the previous 5 year period, to allow for a more realistic apportionment of regional needs, and to address higher anticipated projections of household growth. In this context a housing land target in the region of 10,000 new dwellings during the Plan period together with a 10% flexibility allowance would be appropriate as advocated by the Homebuilders Federation.

2550/3555/DPS -1



The major £14 billion development scheme proposed at St Athan was announced in 2007 after the household figures had been agreed by SEWSPEG in 2006, therefore its impact on dwelling requirement and regional apportionment has not been

Rep No:

Page 26 of 45


taken into account. It is likely that the development will lead to a higher level of in-migration throughout the LDP period above than anticipated by SEWSPEG.





2555/3583/DPS -1


The “agreed” apportionment figure for household growth over the 2003 –2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households i.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.





Rep No:

2557/3611/DPS -1



Rep No:

Page 27 of 45







2561/3700/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Paragraph 8.6 indicates a regional apportionment of 7500 dwellings to the Vale of Glamorgan over a 15 year period: 500 per annum. The extent to which that figure takes account of demand generated by the proposed development at St Athan is not stated in the Preferred Strategy. It would appear from the Population & Housing Projections Topic Paper (The Vale of Glamorgan Council, December 2007) that no account has been taken of this in the forecasting process. Apart from any increased general market demand for new dwellings as a result of DTA, there will be a requirement for service families accommodation, which will be additional to any figure derived from population forecasts. The Preferred Strategy should take account of these factors and should refer, in particular, to the specific requirement for SFA accommodation associated with DTA St Athan. An estimate of the number of SFA dwellings and an indication of preferred site locations may be obtainable from the MoD.

Rep No:

2562/491/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Objection is made to the proposed draft housing requirement figure of 7500 dwellings for the Vale of Glamorgan LDP 2011-2026 which is considered to be too low. In addition there is a discrepancy between the apportionment of household growth and the dwelling requirement figure.

The "agreed" apportionment figure for household growth over 2003-2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households I.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.

A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority's dwelling requirement over the 2001-2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwelling over the 2001-2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro-rata basis. This would indicate a dwelling requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

The major £14 billion development scheme proposed at St Athan was announced in 2007 after the household figures had been agreed by SEWSPEG in 2006, therefore its impact on dwelling requirement and regional apportionment has not been taken into account. It is likely that the development will lead to a higher level of in-migration throughout the LDP period above anticipated by SEWSPEG.

In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of the Welsh Assembly Planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual

Rep No:

Page 28 of 45


affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.


(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 72500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.


© No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


2563/637/DPS -1





In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of the Welsh Assembly Planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.






Rep No:

2564/747/DPS -1


The "agreed" apportionment figure for household growth over 2003-2021 period for the Vale of Glamorgan is 9940 households I.e. 552 households per annum. However the proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 is only 500 dwellings per

Rep No:

Page 29 of 45


annum, which means that there would be insufficient dwellings built to meet the increase in households.









2565/848/DPS -1








(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing

Rep No:

Page 30 of 45


requirements and;



2566/940/DPS -1











Rep No:

2568/1257/DPS -1



A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006.The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.

Rep No:

Page 31 of 45




In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;© No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.


2587/1371/DPS -1


Providing additional housing at Sully will help to absorb the housing development required in the Vale and contribute to creating a more sustainable location. We consider that the housing requirement for the Vale should be raised. Paragraph 8.6 highlights the SEWSPG requirement of 7,500 dwelling over the period 2006-2021. We question whether it is appropriate for the Council to roll this requirement forwards to the LDP plan period 2011-2026. As currently proposed the Council will have lost some of the accelerated housing growth for the period 2006-2011. Furthermore it is not appropriate to roll the housing requirement to years beyond the scope of the SEWSPG period, which is to 2021.It cannot be assumed that one authority’s housing shortfall would be met by another authority as suggested in paragraph 6.3 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper.

Housing Completion

The number of completions has also been high in the last five years. Housing completions are an important indicator of need and demand, which should be factored into the provision of an adequate supply of housing. Planning Policy Wales advocates this approach.

Figure 1 below sets out the current and future housing trajectory and demonstrates the mismatch between demand and supply and that the proposed housing requirement does not accord with the regional apportionment, resulting in a shortfall of housing.

(NOTE, TO VIEW FIGURE 1 OFFICERS WILL NEED TO REFER TO DPS FORM 2587/DPS 1 - THE GRAPH CANNOT BE DISPLAYED HERE).

Affordable Housing

Paragraph 9.3 identifies the need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale. The total proposed housing requirement of 500 dwellings per annum does not appear to reflect need and could mean that affordability issues may not be addressed. The LDP may not be able to meet objective 3, which seeks to meet the housingneeds of people in the Vale. Increasing the overall housing requirement could help to tackle this issue.

The provision of housing at Sully will help to increase people’s choice due to its location and the type of product likely to be delivered. Focusing significant housing growth solely in Barry will limit people’s choice of housinglocation and product.

Rep No:

2589/2998/DPS -1

Representation Comments:My belief is, regards population growth, depends on the future development of the Vale. There will always be pressure to live here. Having read the plans I would not disagree with a population of 9,940 between 2003 and 2021 at the best this is guesswork.

Rep No:

Page 32 of 45


2594/1499/DPS -1

Representation Comments:8.4 - Show increase in households, but what will the actual increase in population be? What proportion of increase will be caused by the St. Athan development?

Housing should only increase at the rate of population increase, enough houses can never be built to meet so called housing-need.

Rep No:

2594/6349/DPS -2

Representation Comments:Housing need - increase should equal population growth. New development only with sustainable modes of transport.

Rep No:

2616/2430/DPS -1


Providing additional housing at Sully will help to absorb the housing development required in the Vale and contribute to creating a more sustainable location.

We consider that the housing requirement for the Vale should be raised. Paragraph 8.6 highlights the SEWSPG requirement of 7,500 dwelling over the period 2006-2021. We question whether it is appropriate for the Council to roll this requirement forwards to the LDP plan period 2011-2026. As currently proposed the Council will have lost some of the accelerated housing growth for the period 2006-2011. Furthermore it is not appropriate to roll the housing requirement to years beyond the scope of the SEWSPG period, which is to 2021.

It cannot be assumed that one authority’s housing shortfall would be met by another authority as suggested in paragraph 6.3 of the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper.

Housing Completion

The number of completions has also been high in the last five years. Housing completions are an important indicator of need and demand, which should be factored into the provision of an adequate supply of housing. Planning Policy Wales advocates this approach.

Figure 1 below sets out the current and future housing trajectory and demonstrates the mismatch between demand and supply and that the proposed housing requirement does not accord with the regional apportionment, resulting in a shortfall of housing.

NOTE: FIGURE 1 COULD NOT BE ATTACHED TO THE DATABASE AND CAN BE VIEWED IN AMY DAVIES'S DPS FORM, FOUND IN CHRIS COX'S COMMENTS, RETURNED COMMENT FORMS, ISA & DPS STRATEGY RELATED, CRP FOLDER (CP, 7/3/08).

Affordable Housing

Paragraph 9.3 identifies the need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale. The total proposed housing requirement of 500 dwellings per annum does not appear to reflect need and could mean that affordability issues may not be addressed. The LDP may not be able to meet objective 3, which seeks to meet the housingneeds of people in the Vale. Increasing the overall housing requirement could help to tackle this issue.

The provision of housing at Sully will help to increase people’s choice due to its location and the type of product likely to be delivered. Focusing significant housing growth solely in Barry will limit people’s choice of housing location and product.

Rep No:

2659/2534/DPS -1

Representation Comments:These comments refer to proposed sites for development at Ystradowen near Cowbridge. I do not think that there should be any more development either in or at the boundaries of Ystradowen because1) The village was doubled in size during the last decade2) The sewerage system is at capacity

Rep No:

Page 33 of 45


3) Everybody in the village has to travel AT LEAST 3 miles to purchase basic essentials such as fresh fruit, vegetables, meat, fresh baked bread and other staples such as rice or pasta.4) There is no continuous pavement to either Cowbridge or Pontyclun so walking is unsafe.5) There is no cycle lane to either Cowbridge or Pontyclun so cycling is difficult.6) Public transport is minimal, comprising 8 buses each way each day and nothing on Sundays. It is impossible to get to either Bridgend or Cardiff to work by 9.00a.m. and get home again in the evenings using just public transport. The nearest railway station is 3 miles away and there is an hourly service to Bridgend and the same to Cardiff. The bus and train time-tables are not integrated.7) Taking points 3,4,5 and 6 into account means that to live in Ystradowen one MUST have a car and expect to travel a minimum of 6 miles daily. In this day and age when we are all being urged to live more sustainably to build yet MORE houses so far from necessities such as food and employment seems perverse and illogical and runs counter to the Government's aim to reduce carbon emissions.8) There are no medical facilities in the village.9) There is no school for any age group in the village.10) There is no post office.11) There is no formal sports area or playing field in the village.12) Any more development will result in greater urbanisation of a rural area.

2673/2710/DPS -1

Representation Comments:As for Question 1 above projections can be influenced by a number of factors especially the close proximity to the Cardiff Bay developments and the range of jobs in the capital city. Price of houses in the Vale can be a major restraint on a desire to live in the Vale on which the planning authority will have little control.

Rep No:

2700/2954/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Proposed result of a technical analysis which cannot be readily appreciated by a lay person.

Rep No:

2703/3000/DPS -1

Representation Comments:My Clients object on the grounds that the issues identified below should also be considered and included in Chapter 8 of the draft Strategy document.

3.2 The apportionment referred to in the Area Work on the WSP (paragraph 8.5 refers) has been agreed without sufficient consultation and there is consequently a soundness issue (See Question 10). The statistical basis for the SEWSPG apportionment has not been the subject of public consultation or Examination in Public, thus it can not be relied upon. Reference to this part of the framework in the context of soundness and sustainability is therefore misleading. The Strategy document must be revisited to ensure that it correctly reflects the status of background strategies.

3.3 Annual completions of new dwellings in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2001 to 2006 averaged 568 (2006 Agreed JHLA Study). WAG projections for the SE Wales region indicate that high rates of growth are anticipated 22% higher than the average annual rate of house completions in the period 1996 to 2005, during which the Vale experienced an annual rate of 510 per annum.

3.4 The proposed housing requirement of 7,500, resulting in an anticipated annual completion rate of 500 dwellings per annum is therefore inadequate to cater for the assumed general growth and does not match previous completion rates. Figures were derived mainly from a brief assessment of urban capacity in each area and on the aspirations for growth or containment of individual local authorities. Broadly it was agreed on a sub regional basis that the Valley areas of South Wales could accommodate the additional growth in order that areas such as the Vale, Cardiff and Monmouthshire could adopt comparatively low growth strategies.

3.5 Although it is acknowledged that the South Wales Valleys should be regenerated by appropriate levels of development, there is a major question mark as to whether growth can take place in these less marketable areas to offset development pressure in the Vale and other popular areas along the M4 corridor. The valley areas where a large amount of growth is proposed have major infrastructure and topographical constraints. Yet in the next 15 years it is assumed that through this process, i.e. by restricting development in the south, significant growth will take place in the valley areas to the extent that previous trends will be reversed, albeit that this would result in more commuter travel and further congestion around Cardiff and the M4.

3.6 Consequently no methodology has been applied which could establish whether the apportionment of the regional household projections is actually deliverable within the respective local authorities. It does not take into account market conditions which will be the key to realising household growth, and fails to examine economic forecasts and other trends to

Rep No:

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show how realistic the proposed amount of housing growth is within each local authority. In doing so there is a failure to recognise the central importance of growth in Cardiff and the coastal region to the development of an economically successful and sustainable ‘City Region’.

3.7 The aforementioned exercise was also based on 2003 – based population and housing projections from the Welsh Assembly Government. Since there have been two other sets of national population projections for Wales, 2004 and 2006 based projections, which both show a significantly higher population growth compared with the 2003 based projections and this is likely to be reflected in the higher household forecasts.

3.8 It is also noted that the Vale of Glamorgan’s LDP period is 2011 to 2026, rather than 2006 to 2021 as adopted by other local authorities in SE Wales. The SEWSPG apportionment figures do not therefore bear comparison with the timescale of the Vale’s Local Development Plan. Moreover new projections emerging from WAG are likely to show a more pronounced increase in household numbers, which has implications in the Vale, particularly in the latter part of the Plan period.

3.9 On the above basis my Client is of the view that a higher housing requirement figure needs to be incorporated in the draft Strategy to reflect housing completion rates over the previous 5 year period, to allow for a more realistic apportionment of regional needs, and to address higher anticipated projections of household growth. In this context a housing land target in the region of 10,000 new dwellings during the Plan period together with a 10% flexibility allowance would be appropriate as advocated by the Homebuilders Federation.

2704/3259/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Bridgend County Borough Council (BCBC), as a co-signatory of the South East Wales Housing Apportionment Memorandum of Understanding welcomes the fact that, after careful examination of options in the associated Topic Paper, the Vale of Glamorgan Council is using their regionally-apportioned figure as a basis for household and population growth up to 2026. This approach accords with both MIPPS 01/2006: Housing (paragraph 9.2.2) and the Wales Spatial Plan.

Rep No:

2725/3356/DPS -1










Rep No:

Page 35 of 45



2730/3412/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The same comments apply as for Question 1.

Rep No:

2755/3641/DPS -1

Representation Comments:I object strongly to the proposed development of housing in Ystradowen. In the 15 years I have lived here, the number of houses has doubled. There are no facilities in the village apart from a garage and pub. The character of this small community has changed substantially and will be destroyed by any more building. I hear from our community councillors that this plan could mean another 100 houses in Ystradowen. Small rural villages in the Vale should be protected otherwise the whole of the Vale will be changed.

Rep No:

2766/3757/DPS -2









Rep No:

Page 36 of 45



2766/3788/DPS -3










Rep No:

2773/2343/DPS -1


Rep No:

Page 37 of 45


Subject to Question 1 above.

2776/2627/DPS -1

Representation Comments:It is important that the population is not artificially increased by developments. Particularly within the rural Vale it will be extremely difficult to accommodate significant housing development without going against 5.7, the Vision in 12.1 and Objective 7 (12.18 and 12.19).

Rep No:

2779/2930/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The Council has not taken into consideration the requirements of local people as stakeholders of the Vale of Glamorgan.

Rep No:

2786/3384/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Proposed result of a technical analysis which cannot be readily appreciated by a lay person.

Rep No:

2790/4087/DPS -1

Representation Comments:It is difficult to know whether the requirement for 7500 new dwellings is accurate or not. However, I wish to comment specifically on how the proposals will affect Ystradowen. This village has more than doubled in size as a result of the last local authority plan and as a long standing resident of the village I believe that to dramatically increase its size again is not sustainable. The village has few local facilities (note that it sill has not received the planning benefit of the promised public open space from the last round of expansion) and further large building projects will ruin the nature of our community. South Glamorgan closed the local school at Maendy a number of (years) ago and the Llansannor and Llanharry CIW school is some distance away accessed only through narrow lanes. If the sites identified are all brought forward for development, then we will be living in another building site for the next few years which I think is grossly unfair on the existing residents. There are numerous brown sites available in the Vale for development without further spoiling the open countryside. The proposals at Llandow should be followed through and I cannot understand why the authority seems to be so against them.

Rep No:

2791/4115/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The regional apportionment process has not been the subject of public consultation. To give the process weight and credibility this should happen. The proposed housing requirement figure 0f 7500 is too low and does not reflect the demand of people wanting to live in the Vale. The figure should be more in line with past build rates and demand to ensure that housing supply is not restricted., demand is met, housing is affordable and that the Council's employment aspirations (including the DTA, St. Athan) are met and appropriate housing provided.

Rep No:

2794/4143/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Re paragraph 8.3. Concerned about lack of parking, access and overcrowding. Site 2409/CS1.

Rep No:

2795/4172/DPS -1

Representation Comments:This relates to 8.3 ref. 2409/CS.1. We are unhappy about this development being considered. The plot of land is not suitable for housing due to the nature of the gradient of the land, it will overlook many of the surrounding properties and will spoil the characteristics of the village that attract people in the first place. Furthermore, it is plain to see that there is not a adequate access for the development even before an existing garage is knocked down. Under development the area will become dangerous to those who live here, especially children, with the added noise, pollution and traffic which will put more pressure on the village which is subjected to the Aberthaw traffic already. There is not adequate parking in this corner of the cul- de sac anyway, this development would just add to this problem assuming there are families here with up to two cars each. Furthermore, the electricity supply is so close to the access that I would deem this to be dangerous.

Rep No:

2796/4200/DPS -1


Rep No:

Page 38 of 45


No need, there are plenty of houses for sale within 10 mile radius, with no buyers.

2797/4734/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The questioning of the approach relates solely to the needs arising from the proposals at St. Athan. It is not clear to what extent this need has been taken into account in the forecasting process ((including in the Population and Housing Projections Topic Paper - VoGC Dec 2007). There will be an increased requirement for Service Families and Single Living Accommodation. It is important that a flexible approach is taken to the provision for these needs on and adjacent to the St. Athan site.

Rep No:

2798/4228/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Para 8.6: Given the Council's projection of an additional 7,500 houses over the 15 year plan period, we believe that the need for additional retail provision to meet the requirement of these new households should be investigated.

Rep No:

2800/4318/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Barry is being described as a Primary Settlement but it currently lacks a primary shopping centre. That is, it lacks a centre where higher order goods may be purchased. To increase housing without making provision for this vital retail sector is foolhardy. All purchases of this nature must be made in Cardiff, Culverhouse Cross or in other counties. Barry's retail sector is totally inadequate for its existing population and access to the shops is particularly difficult for disabled residents. The need to travel to make higher order purchases is also difficult for those with economic difficulties.

Rep No:

2806/4375/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The Vale as well as the whole of the S.E. Wales Region and large areas of the UK, is becoming over-populated and congested, with loss of open space, countryside, agricultural land, attractive landscape and wildlife. This works against efforts to increase biodiversity. The whole area is being converted from a rural green lung of S.E. Wales to an urban metropolis. We have to think what will it be like after two more LDPs? Population growth figures, arising from expansion and immigration policies are being passed on to the Vale by Central Government Guidance, implying that there is no escape. Alternative approaches are needed to accommodate population pressures.

Daily Telegraph cutting of 18/2/08: UK Unable to sustain population, says study:

"The United Kingdom is drastically over-populated and could support only 17 million people if it had t provide for the current 60 million from its own resources, says a study published today. The UK has no hope of living sustainably unless every person's "ecological footprint" is reduced by more than 70 per cent, the study for the Optimum Population trust (OPT) claims. It predicts that if global population growth continues as expected, the world could be at war over resources in less than 50years and calls on governments to advocate smaller families and increased use of contraception.

The Sustainability of Human Populations: How many people can live on Earth? also claims that Government targets to cut carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 will have little impact on the UK's sustainability because of the rate of population growth. The latest official figures show the number of people living in the UK is expected to hit 65 million within 10years, and top 70 million by 2031. Yet even if Britain was carbon neutral, it could only sustainably support 40 million people, with the same standard of living, the study claims. It says if the world consumed as much and generated the same waste as the UK it would need three and a half planets to sustain the human race. To live sustainably, British people would have to lead simpler lives, similar to people in China, Paraguay, Algeria and Botswana.The world was living within its ecological means until the 1980s when populations began to grow rapidly. By 2050, when the global population is expected to hit 9.2 billion, it will be using up the equivalent of nearly two Earths each year, according to the study.Valerie Stephens, the chairman of the OPT, said the study showed the extent of the UK's overpopulation and the threat it poses to the environment and people's quality of life.She added, "It also shows how desperately we need a national population policy"."

Rep No:

2810/4452/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Paragraph 8.3 Site ID No. 2409/CS.1:The site has limited access and would create further traffic and parking problems. Notwithstanding this point, there was considerable difficulty in building the foundations to No. 16 Meadow Court as it was on bedrock. The proposed

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development would encounter similar problems as the site is even steeper and closer to Pant Quarry. The proposed line of building is on the same bedrock and the noise and disruption would be considerable. Also it is unlikely to be 'affordable' housing for first time buyers and can hardly be described as appropriate infill development. My main objection apart from the above would be access and parking.

2811/4480/DPS -1

Representation Comments:I am very concerned in the increase of housing and therefore traffic and congestion that comes with it.

Rep No:

2814/4509/DPS -1

Representation Comments:No, the Consortium do not agree with the Council's proposed future housing requirement.

Paragraph 8.3 of the draft Preferred Strategy states that “it is considered that only one option, that of the Regional Housing Requirement Figure, meets the needs of the Vale and the guidance offered by the Wales Spatial Plan”. We do not believe that the regional housing apportionment is based upon a robust and up to date evidence base and that the Council is seeking to afford it status beyond that indicated by the Wales Spatial Plan.

The Ministerial Interim Planning Policy Statement on Housing (MIPPS) paragraph 9.2. states, “The latest Assembly Government National and Sub-National Household Projections for Wales should form the starting point for assessing housing requirements”. It continues to state, “in estimating housing requirements local planning authorities should integrate the provisions of their local housing strategies with the relevant provisions of their development plans”.

Whilst the regional apportionment is based upon household projections we have concerns about the robustness of the methodology. There appears to be no rationale behind the method through which the housing has been apportioned within South East Wales. Neither has there been proper stakeholder involvement in the generation of the distribution or a proper mechanism for scrutiny and testing.

The Council has chosen to provide a level of housing in line with the South East Wales Spatial Planning Group (SEWSPG) regional housing apportionment figure. This regional housing apportionment was produced behind closed doors by the ten authorities in South East Wales. Whilst there was limited consultation on the apportionment no account has been taken of objections made regarding the distribution or process for preparation and scrutiny of the document.

As a result we do not consider that the apportionment has been produced in the manner anticipated by national planning policy guidance as contained in the MIPPS (Housing) 01/2006. NLP have worked closely with HBF during the Wales Spatial Plan Review and housing apportionment process. We have repeatedly raised serious concerns with SEWSPG and the Welsh Assembly Government regarding the housing apportionment process and the status it should be afforded.

The Council appear to have misrepresented the status of the SEWSPG apportionment figures as well as the views of those bodies which it did consult. For instance, paragraph 7.3 of the Population and Housing Projections topic paper states that the Home Builders Federation (HBF) has agreed with the apportioned figures. We understand from HBF that this is not the case.

The housing figures proposed by the Council have arisen through a non-statutory apportionment process and NLP have concerns about them being carried forwardunchallenged into an LDP without proper scrutiny and testing. This issue goes to the centre of the soundness of the plan process.

The Council proposes to review the housing requirement figure regularly, as is required by government guidance. As a result, they argue that the housing figure could be amended should the underlying demographic information change. It is unclear what process would be used to secure such a change in advance of LDP review. In the conclusions to the Housing Topic Paper paragraph 6.3 the Vale refers to the fact shortfalls in one authority could easily be made good in another when house build rates are being reviewed. We don’t share the Council’s optimism on this point and consider that it would be helpful if the Council could explain what mechanism would be used for this process.

Not only do NLP have concerns about the apportionment process we consider that there are statistical anomalies within the resultant dwelling requirement figures that need to be clarified. The dwelling requirement figure summarised in figure 15 of the Council’s Population & Housing Projections Topic Paper is approximately 10% lower than the apportioned household growth.

This is surprising given that dwelling numbers are usually higher than household numbers to take account of vacancy rates etc. An earlier version of the apportionment figures set out the housing distribution across South East Wales 2001-2021 and then the residual requirement 2006-2021 taking account of completions 2001-2006. If this calculation had been

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undertaken in a consistent manner to the other authorities then the housing requirement figure would be at least 1,000 dwellings higher.This suggests that there is something significantly flawed with the SEWSPG housing apportionment figure.

Whilst alternative household projections have been undertaken these appear to have been quickly disregarded by the Council. The Council also appear to have disregarded the findings of their own Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) as it relates to open market housing, whilst still using it to justify their emerging affordable housing policies.In accordance with Tan 2: Affordable Housing: “Local planning authorities should ensure that development plan policies are based upon an up to date assessment of the full range of housing requirements across the plan area over the plan period. LHMAs provide the evidence base supporting policies to deliver affordable andmarket housing through the planning system”.

In addition to this, Paragraph 9.1 of the draft Preferred Strategy states, “The Council, in partnership with Cardiff County Council has jointly commissioned a Local Housing MarketAssessment (LHMA) to enable each authority to gain an understanding of its local housing markets, including affordable housing needs. The findings of the study will be used by the Council in the development of the Vale’s Housing Strategy, and will also provide robust evidence to enable affordable housing to be secured through the LDP”,The draft LHMA which the Council refers to in section 9 has not been made publicly available, however it is believed that the document sets out a total net housing requirement of 855 dwellings per annum. In addition to this, it is apparent that if the LHMA has found there to be a need to provide 652 affordable dwellings per annum in the Vale, as is stated in paragraph 9.3, then providing 500 dwellings per annum overall for housing will come nowhere near to meeting the need for either open market or affordable housing over the plan period. It is quite clear that the Council has not taken into account the implications and findings of their LHMA when assessing the overall level of housing to be provided over the plan period.

2816/4538/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Although the Council agrees with the proposed level of housing growth it is important to recognise the difference in the timescales for the apportionment process undertaken by the SEWSPG (2006 to 2021) and the proposed LDP plan period (2011 to 2026). The apportionment exercise indicated that the Vale of Glamorgan would provide a total of 7,500 dwellings over the period 2006 to 2021. However it is noted that policy CSP4 provides for phasing which would result in only 5000 dwellings by 2021. Presumably this shortfall of 2500 will be made up by allocations included in the adopted Vale of Glamorgan Unitary Development Plan which covers the outstanding period 2006 to 2011. This fact should be made clear in the text accompanying the plan.

In addition it would be helpful if the implications of this proposed level of housing growth were set out in more detail in the document. This could be done by comparing the requirement figure with the existing housing landbank and giving an estimate of the contribution of brownfield and greenfield sites to meeting any shortfall.

Rep No:

2817/4566/DPS -1

Representation Comments:In other areas of the UK local authority housing has been released for higher density, more environmentally friendly and more suitable for the demographic situation. We should be considering this for the Vale the 3500 or so of Council homes could accommodate a far greater number of people in a more sustainable way. In the end these homes are going to have to be demolished if the UK to meet its 60 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions we ought to start now.

Rep No:

2818/4594/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The requirement for additional housing in the Vale will be subject to house price fluctuations in the surrounding areas. For example, the huge increase in property prices in Cardiff drove people to look outside the city to find homes from which they could commute to work. This led to houses in the Broadlands Estate near Bridgend being bought by commuters to Cardiff and becoming a "dormitory" area rather than a thriving community. This has also led to increasing congestion on traffic routes to Cardiff. Any development at the proposed Llandow Newydd site will have the same fate - no positive contribution, only negative affects on existing Vale residents.

Rep No:

2821/4622/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The Vale and surrounding areas are becoming increasingly over populated. This is resulting in greater congestion and a loss of open spaces. Many school fields, hospitals, government buildings etc. are continually being sold off throughout the UK for development leaving a lack of open and recreational space. The reason for such growth is the expansion and immigration policies in the UK. Greenfield sites should be the last area of development and as a last resort. Government policy change is needed to tackle expansion not more new build houses.

Rep No:

Page 41 of 45


2823/4678/DPS -1

Representation Comments:8.4: The future employment surely would come from the present workforce, who already live in the Vale, and the unemployed in the area. There has been a huge increase of houses built in the Vale in the last 10 years.

Rep No:

2824/4706/DPS -1

Representation Comments:The projected increase in the required number of households required for SE Wales (18.3%) is very large (para 8.4) but could be possible taking into account increased longevity - a significant part of this population growth would thereby comprise an ageing population.

Rep No:

2825/1668/DPS -1

Representation Comments:I agree that all councils need to look long term at what our housing needs should be. I do however strongly disagree with developing area such as Llancarfan / Walterston. Llancarfan is a conservation area of which we all enjoy the outstanding beauty and pay for it in council taxes etc. Please do not "move the goal posts" just because you can. We chose to purchase and live here because we will adhere to the strict planning rules that have always applied. I urge you to further develop areas where public services are already in place.

Rep No:

2826/1708/DPS -1

Representation Comments:In terms of housing need, Policy CSP4 of the Draft Preferred strategy states that the phased provision of 7,500 new homes is required in the Vale during the plan period. Cofton Limited supports the Council's proposed future housing requirement for the LDP period.

Rep No:

2827/2078/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Paragraph 8.3 Site No 2409/CS1.Proposed future housing development in this area will increase the traffic and car parking in an already saturated area. Development needs to be curtailed together with the imposition of traffic restrictions. Alternative sites need to be sought which have sufficient access both for current and future expansion.

Rep No:

2831/2532/DPS -1

Representation Comments:Estimates of population growth could not be accessed but, purely form its location and facilities, population growth in the Vale is very likely to grow and be on the high side of any estimates. Encouraging brownfield development in adjoining areas - to enable retention of their populations and communities is essential - with good transport links to the Vale for access to work.

Rep No:

2836/394/DPS -1




The major £14 billion development scheme proposed at St Athan was announced in 2007 after the household figures had

Rep No:

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been agreed by SEWSPEG in 2006, therefore its impact on dwelling requirement and regional apportionment has not been taken into account. It is likely that the development will lead to a higher level of in-migration throughout the LDP period above than anticipated by SEWSPEG.

In addition the Draft Housing Requirement does not take into account the findings of the Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) which is also a requirement of Welsh Assembly planning policy. The draft LHMA identifies an annual affordable requirement of 652 per year in the Vale of Glamorgan and an overall dwelling requirement of 865 new dwellings per annum which would indicate a dwelling requirement of 12825 dwellings over the LDP plan period.In conclusion therefore, it is evident that:(a) The draft proposed dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings will not allow the agreed apportionment of the households in the Vale of Glamorgan to be provided for.(b) No consideration has been given to the impact of the major economic investment at St. Athan on the housing requirements and;(c) No regard has been given to the high level of housing need within the Vale of Glamorgan.There is therefore objection to the dwelling requirement of 7500 dwellings and it is considered that in order to take on board all these factors a housing requirement of 11000 dwellings for the plan period is more realistic.

2836/3142/DPS -2






Rep No:

2836/3190/DPS -3



A report was presented to the South East Wales Strategic Planning Group on the 22nd May 2006. The appendix to the report contains a table which calculates each local authority’s dwelling requirement over the 2001 – 2021. The dwelling

Rep No:

Page 43 of 45


requirement for the Vale of Glamorgan is 11,863 dwellings over the 2001 – 2021 period which equates to an average annual requirement of 593 dwellings per annum on a pro rata basis. This would indicate a dwellings requirement of 8895 dwellings per annum which would be a more appropriate assessment of the dwelling requirement based on the apportionment of the household projections.



2848/2770/DPS -1

Representation Comments:My Client objects on the grounds that the issues identified below should also be considered and included in Chapter 8 of the draft Strategy document.


Annual completions of new dwellings in the Vale of Glamorgan from 2001 to2006 averaged 568 (2006 Agreed JHLA Study). WAG projections for the SEWales region indicate that high rates of growth are anticipated 22% higher than the average annual rate of house completions in the period 1996 to 2005, during which the Vale experienced an annual rate of 510 per annum.


Although it is acknowledged that the South Wales Valleys should be regenerated by appropriate levels of development, there is a major question mark as to whether growth can take place in these less marketable areas to offset development pressure in the Vale and other popular areas along the M4 corridor. The valley areas where a large amount of growth is proposed have major infrastructure and topographical constraints. Yet in the next 15 years it is assumed that through this process, i.e. by restricting development in the south, significant growth will take place in the valley areas to the extent that previous trends will be reversed, albeit that this would result in more commuter travel and further congestion around Cardiff and the M4.Consequently no methodology has been applied which could establish whether the apportionment of the regional household projections is actually deliverable within the respective 'loc al authorities. It does not take into account market conditions which will be the key to realising household growth, and fails to examine economic forecasts and other trends to show how realistic the proposed amount of housing growth is within each local authority. In doing so there is a failure to recognise the central importance of growth in Cardiff and the coastal region to the development of an economically successful and sustainable 'City Region'.

The aforementioned exercise was also based on 2003 - based population and housing projections from the Welsh Assembly Government. Since there have been two other sets of national population projections for Wales, 2004 and 2006 based projections, which both show a significantly higher population growth compared with the 2003 based projections and this is likely to be reflected in the higher household forecasts.

Rep No:

Page 44 of 45


It is also noted that the Vale of Glamorgan's LDP period is 2011 to 2026, rather than 2006 to 2021 as adopted by other local authorities in SE Wales. The SEWSPG apportionment figures do not therefore bear comparison with the timescale of the Vale's Local Development Plan. Moreover new projections emerging from WAG are likely to show a more pronounced increase in household numbers, which has implications in the Vale, particularly in the latter part of the Plan period.


My client is of the view that a higher housing requirement figure needs to be incorporated to reflect housing completion rates over the previous 5 year period, to allow for a more realistic apportionment of regional needs and to address higher anticipated projections of household growth. In this context a higher housing land target in the region of 10,000 new dwellings during the plan period with a 10% flexibility allowance would be appropriate.

Page 45 of 45

Population Estimates and Forecasts….. Vale of Glamorgan Council - Components of Population and Household Change

2006 based - Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Dwellings)Year beginning July 1st …………..

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030BirthsMale 672 691 702 712 720 724 726 729 732 737 743 747 750 751 750 748 745 742 739 736 733 730 728 726 725Female 651 669 680 689 697 701 703 706 709 714 719 724 726 727 726 724 721 718 715 712 709 707 705 703 702All Births 1,323 1,360 1,382 1,401 1,416 1,425 1,429 1,434 1,441 1,451 1,462 1,471 1,476 1,478 1,476 1,471 1,465 1,460 1,454 1,448 1,442 1,437 1,433 1,430 1,427TFR 1.85 1.90 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.91 1.90 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.84 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85Births input

DeathsMale 585 584 580 575 573 571 572 571 571 574 577 581 586 591 597 604 611 621 631 639 649 659 670 681 689Female 644 660 654 649 646 644 641 641 639 637 635 633 635 638 641 643 648 656 663 672 682 695 708 721 735All deaths 1,229 1,244 1,234 1,224 1,219 1,215 1,213 1,212 1,211 1,211 1,212 1,214 1,221 1,229 1,238 1,247 1,260 1,277 1,294 1,311 1,331 1,353 1,378 1,402 1,425SMR: males 97.4 94.8 91.9 88.6 86.0 83.3 81.0 78.7 76.6 74.8 73.0 71.4 69.9 68.4 67.0 65.7 64.5 63.5 62.5 61.5 60.7 59.8 59.1 58.5 57.7SMR: females 97.3 98.2 95.9 93.7 91.5 89.3 87.2 85.3 83.5 81.4 79.5 77.5 75.9 74.3 72.7 71.0 69.6 68.4 67.1 65.9 64.8 63.9 63.1 62.3 61.6SMR: male & female 97.4 96.6 94.0 91.2 88.8 86.4 84.2 82.1 80.1 78.1 76.2 74.4 72.9 71.3 69.8 68.3 67.0 65.9 64.8 63.7 62.7 61.9 61.1 60.4 59.6Expectation of life 80.3 80.4 80.6 80.9 81.1 81.3 81.5 81.7 81.8 82.0 82.2 82.3 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.8 82.9 83.0 83.1 83.2 83.3 83.4 83.4 83.5 83.6Deaths input

In-migration from the UK Male 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444 2,444Female 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731 2,731All 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175 5,175SMigR: males 41.1 40.5 39.9 39.3 38.8 38.3 37.9 37.5 37.2 36.8 36.5 36.3 36.1 35.9 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.2 35.0 34.9 34.7 34.5SMigR: females 43.3 42.9 42.5 42.1 41.8 41.6 41.4 41.2 41.0 40.8 40.6 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.2 40.1 40.1 39.9 39.7 39.5 39.3 39.1 38.9Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to the UK Male 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065 2,065Female 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269 2,269All 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335 4,335SMigR: males 34.7 34.2 33.7 33.2 32.8 32.4 32.0 31.7 31.4 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2SMigR: females 36.0 35.6 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.6 34.4 34.2 34.1 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.3 33.3 33.2 33.0 32.9 32.7 32.5 32.3Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In-migration from Overseas Male 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336 336Female 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254All 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590SMigR: males 84.0 82.4 80.8 79.3 77.9 76.7 75.6 74.7 73.9 73.3 72.8 72.4 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.9 72.0 72.0 72.0 71.9 71.7 71.5 71.2SMigR: females 61.2 60.5 59.8 59.1 58.5 58.0 57.6 57.3 57.0 56.8 56.6 56.5 56.4 56.4 56.4 56.5 56.7 56.8 56.9 57.1 57.1 57.0 57.0 56.8 56.6Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to Overseas Male 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326 326Female 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288

Appendix C

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030All 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615 615SMigR: males 81.6 80.1 78.5 77.1 75.8 74.5 73.5 72.6 71.9 71.3 70.7 70.3 70.0 69.8 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.9 70.0 70.0 70.0 69.9 69.7 69.5 69.2SMigR: females 69.4 68.7 67.9 67.2 66.4 65.8 65.4 65.0 64.7 64.5 64.3 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.5 64.6 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.7 64.5 64.3Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Migration - Net FlowsUK +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840 +840Overseas -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25

Summary of population changeNatural change +94 +117 +148 +177 +197 +210 +217 +223 +230 +240 +250 +257 +255 +249 +238 +224 +206 +183 +160 +136 +111 +83 +55 +28 +2Net migration +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815 +815Net change +909 +932 +963 +992 +1,012 +1,025 +1,032 +1,038 +1,046 +1,055 +1,065 +1,072 +1,071 +1,064 +1,054 +1,039 +1,021 +998 +975 +952 +926 +898 +870 +843 +818

Summary of Population estimates/forecastsPopulation at mid-year

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 20310-4 6,653 6,811 6,925 7,061 7,181 7,303 7,406 7,474 7,525 7,565 7,599 7,635 7,677 7,719 7,757 7,782 7,791 7,785 7,768 7,743 7,715 7,686 7,657 7,631 7,607 7,5875-10 9,398 9,172 8,961 8,765 8,666 8,636 8,692 8,893 9,031 9,187 9,323 9,456 9,563 9,636 9,693 9,742 9,787 9,833 9,881 9,926 9,963 9,984 9,987 9,976 9,953 9,92211-15 8,533 8,410 8,391 8,415 8,392 8,318 8,194 7,897 7,698 7,563 7,520 7,548 7,714 7,830 7,969 8,090 8,214 8,319 8,386 8,437 8,475 8,508 8,544 8,587 8,631 8,67016-17 3,665 3,671 3,655 3,558 3,485 3,465 3,452 3,513 3,569 3,491 3,370 3,254 3,085 3,065 3,158 3,190 3,241 3,284 3,351 3,412 3,454 3,488 3,512 3,523 3,530 3,54118-59Female, 64Male 70,108 70,515 70,905 71,456 71,997 72,410 72,648 72,966 73,327 73,769 74,170 74,562 74,864 75,092 75,196 75,330 75,365 75,530 75,631 75,725 75,905 76,069 76,149 76,388 76,598 76,85360/65 -74 14,569 15,160 15,750 16,169 16,557 17,003 17,529 17,959 18,296 18,599 18,952 19,163 19,313 19,487 19,602 19,795 19,726 19,671 19,866 20,150 20,356 20,629 20,997 21,205 21,446 21,59175-84 7,638 7,612 7,576 7,604 7,607 7,646 7,814 7,989 8,173 8,391 8,566 8,861 9,239 9,571 9,952 10,300 10,940 11,452 11,751 11,972 12,231 12,393 12,486 12,595 12,654 12,77385+ 2,711 2,833 2,952 3,050 3,187 3,301 3,373 3,448 3,559 3,659 3,780 3,866 3,961 4,087 4,225 4,374 4,578 4,790 5,027 5,271 5,491 5,759 6,082 6,379 6,708 7,007Total 123,275 124,184 125,115 126,079 127,071 128,083 129,108 130,140 131,178 132,223 133,278 134,344 135,416 136,486 137,550 138,604 139,643 140,664 141,663 142,638 143,589 144,516 145,414 146,284 147,127 147,944

Population impact of constraintNumber of persons

HouseholdsNumber of Households 51,778 52,461 53,157 53,863 54,594 55,342 56,115 56,888 57,651 58,409 59,174 59,936 60,680 61,412 62,126 62,822 63,532 64,216 64,880 65,508 66,131 66,715 67,299 67,878 68,440 69,002Change over previous year +683 +697 +706 +730 +748 +773 +773 +763 +757 +765 +762 +744 +732 +714 +696 +709 +684 +664 +628 +623 +585 +584 +579 +563 +561Number of supply units 54,343 55,060 55,791 56,532 57,298 58,084 58,895 59,707 60,508 61,302 62,105 62,905 63,686 64,454 65,204 65,935 66,679 67,397 68,094 68,753 69,407 70,020 70,633 71,240 71,831 72,420Change over previous year +717 +731 +741 +766 +785 +811 +812 +801 +795 +803 +800 +781 +769 +750 +731 +745 +717 +697 +659 +654 +614 +613 +608 +591 +589

Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 11,323Household Change (2011-2026) = 19%

Special Populationsstud 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33arm for 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994 994pris 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Notes:

This report was compiled from a forecast produced on 23/09/2011 using POPGROUP software developed by Bradford Council, the University of Manchester and Andelin Associates

Appendix C


2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with Dwellings)Year beginning July 1st …………..



In-migration from the UK Male 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420Female 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699All 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119SMigR: males 40.7 40.3 39.9 39.6 39.3 39.0 38.8 38.6 38.4 38.3 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.0 37.9 37.7 37.5 37.3 37.2 37.0 36.8 36.6SMigR: females 42.6 42.2 41.9 41.8 41.6 41.4 41.3 41.0 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.8 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.8 40.8 40.6 40.3 40.1 39.9 39.6 39.4 39.2 39.0Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Out-migration to the UK Male 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201Female 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371All 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572SMigR: males 37.0 36.6 36.3 36.0 35.7 35.5 35.3 35.1 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.1 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.3SMigR: females 37.4 37.1 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.4 36.2 36.1 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.9 36.0 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.7 35.4 35.2 35.0 34.8 34.6 34.4 34.2Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In-migration from Overseas Male 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180Female 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153All 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334SMigR: males 45.0 44.4 43.9 43.4 43.1 42.7 42.5 42.3 42.2 42.1 42.0 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.5 42.7 42.8 42.9 42.8 42.7 42.5 42.2 41.9 41.7SMigR: females 36.7 36.3 36.0 35.7 35.5 35.4 35.2 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.6 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.2 35.0Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


Appendix D

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032All 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316SMigR: males 43.0 42.4 41.9 41.5 41.1 40.8 40.6 40.4 40.3 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.2 40.3 40.5 40.6 40.8 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.8 40.6 40.3 40.1 39.8SMigR: females 34.3 34.0 33.7 33.5 33.3 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.2 33.3 33.4 33.5 33.4 33.4 33.2 33.1 32.9 32.8Migrants input * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Migration - Net FlowsUK +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547 +547Overseas +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18 +18

Summary of population changeNatural change +276 +279 +279 +284 +290 +300 +312 +326 +340 +348 +351 +345 +332 +315 +296 +275 +253 +230 +204 +178 +152 +126 +98 +71 +44Net migration +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565 +565Net change +842 +845 +844 +849 +855 +865 +877 +892 +905 +913 +916 +910 +897 +881 +861 +840 +819 +795 +769 +743 +717 +691 +664 +636 +609


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 20320-4 7,052 7,318 7,498 7,715 7,829 7,805 7,794 7,800 7,827 7,871 7,925 7,981 8,029 8,060 8,071 8,064 8,045 8,019 7,990 7,963 7,939 7,917 7,897 7,879 7,8635-10 8,924 8,683 8,585 8,485 8,561 8,894 9,146 9,410 9,583 9,801 9,915 9,893 9,890 9,910 9,951 10,006 10,068 10,127 10,174 10,199 10,203 10,191 10,167 10,135 10,10111-15 8,390 8,373 8,329 8,259 8,125 7,791 7,567 7,387 7,330 7,303 7,500 7,764 8,038 8,219 8,441 8,555 8,525 8,510 8,514 8,542 8,586 8,642 8,699 8,749 8,78016-17 3,641 3,555 3,481 3,431 3,405 3,474 3,522 3,423 3,319 3,201 3,002 2,957 3,017 3,081 3,119 3,173 3,424 3,559 3,539 3,522 3,509 3,506 3,511 3,527 3,55318-59Female, 64Male 69,749 70,121 70,493 70,763 70,817 70,965 71,112 71,343 71,551 71,703 71,800 71,811 71,718 71,628 71,399 71,378 71,197 71,150 71,253 71,313 71,264 71,344 71,418 71,470 71,58260/65 -74 15,804 16,216 16,584 17,003 17,525 17,926 18,265 18,595 18,924 19,170 19,332 19,524 19,627 19,836 19,785 19,732 19,941 20,181 20,392 20,642 21,009 21,200 21,393 21,578 21,68975-84 7,564 7,611 7,617 7,667 7,834 8,030 8,227 8,441 8,629 8,928 9,314 9,640 10,019 10,351 10,991 11,497 11,798 12,027 12,280 12,464 12,552 12,688 12,768 12,894 12,75985+ 2,999 3,088 3,223 3,331 3,408 3,472 3,590 3,703 3,828 3,920 4,021 4,158 4,299 4,451 4,657 4,871 5,117 5,361 5,586 5,854 6,179 6,472 6,796 7,082 7,622Total 124,123 124,965 125,809 126,654 127,503 128,358 129,223 130,100 130,992 131,897 132,810 133,727 134,637 135,534 136,415 137,275 138,115 138,934 139,729 140,498 141,241 141,958 142,650 143,314 143,949

Population impact of constraintNumber of persons

HouseholdsNumber of Households 52,818 53,471 54,131 54,804 55,502 56,194 56,875 57,545 58,236 58,917 59,581 60,235 60,868 61,486 62,109 62,702 63,286 63,830 64,365 64,872 65,363 65,854 66,326 66,784 67,230Change over previous year +653 +661 +673 +698 +692 +682 +670 +691 +681 +664 +654 +634 +618 +623 +592 +584 +544 +534 +507 +491 +491 +472 +458 +446Number of Dwellings (2001 Census Rates) 55,434 56,120 56,813 57,519 58,251 58,978 59,693 60,396 61,121 61,836 62,532 63,219 63,884 64,532 65,186 65,808 66,421 66,993 67,554 68,086 68,602 69,116 69,612 70,093 70,560Change over previous year +685 +694 +706 +732 +726 +715 +703 +725 +715 +697 +686 +665 +649 +654 +622 +613 +571 +561 +532 +516 +515 +496 +480 +468

Dwellings Change (2011-2026) = 10,034Household change (2011-2026) = 17%

Special Populationsstud 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31arm for 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831 831pris 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Notes:


Appendix D


Option 1 - 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections with Mid Year Estimate 2009 & 2010 updatedYear beginning July 1st …………..



In-migration from the UK Male 2,389 2,406 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420 2,420Female 2,554 2,486 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699 2,699All 4,943 4,893 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119 5,119SMigR: males 40.2 40.0 39.8 39.5 39.3 39.1 38.9 38.7 38.5 38.4 38.3 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.1 37.9 37.7 37.5 37.3 37.2 37.0 36.8SMigR: females 40.3 39.1 42.6 42.4 42.2 42.0 41.8 41.5 41.4 41.3 41.3 41.3 41.4 41.5 41.4 41.3 41.3 41.1 40.9 40.7 40.5 40.2 40.0 39.8 39.6Migrants input

Out-migration to the UK Male 2,238 2,225 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201Female 2,517 2,593 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371All 4,755 4,818 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572SMigR: males 37.7 37.0 36.2 36.0 35.7 35.5 35.3 35.2 35.0 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.1 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.5SMigR: females 39.7 40.8 37.4 37.2 37.1 36.9 36.7 36.5 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.3 36.2 36.1 35.9 35.8 35.6 35.3 35.2 35.0 34.8Migrants input

In-migration from Overseas Male 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180Female 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153 153All 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334SMigR: males 45.0 44.2 43.6 43.2 42.9 42.6 42.5 42.4 42.3 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.5 42.8 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.7 42.4 42.2 41.9SMigR: females 36.7 36.5 36.6 36.3 36.0 35.9 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.8 35.9 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.6Migrants input


Appendix E (i)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032All 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316SMigR: males 43.0 42.2 41.7 41.3 41.0 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.0SMigR: females 34.3 34.2 34.2 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.3Migrants input





Population impact of constraintNumber of persons -360 -473




Notes:By correcting the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) DF has made changes to the population for those two years.


Appendix E (i)

Population Estimates and Forecasts….. Vale of Glamorgan Council - Components of Popluation and Household Change

Option 2 - 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with MYE & Av Vacancy Rates) updatedYear beginning July 1st …………..







Appendix E (ii)

All 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 3162008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

SMigR: males 43.0 42.2 41.7 41.3 41.0 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.0SMigR: females 34.3 34.2 34.2 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.7 33.6 33.5 33.3Migrants input






HouseholdsNumber of Households 52,818 53,328 53,784 54,454 55,149 55,843 56,528 57,194 57,875 58,549 59,208 59,854 60,483 61,094 61,712 62,294 62,866 63,402 63,935 64,435 64,916 65,403 65,864 66,308 66,744Change over previous year +510 +456 +671 +694 +694 +685 +667 +680 +674 +659 +646 +630 +611 +617 +583 +571 +536 +533 +500 +482 +487 +461 +445 +435Number of Dwellings (Av Rates) 55,156 55,689 56,165 56,865 57,591 58,315 59,030 59,727 60,437 61,141 61,829 62,504 63,161 63,799 64,444 65,053 65,649 66,209 66,766 67,288 67,790 68,299 68,780 69,244 69,699Change over previous year +532 +476 +700 +725 +725 +715 +696 +711 +704 +688 +675 +658 +638 +645 +609 +597 +560 +557 +522 +503 +508 +481 +464 +455



Notes:By correcting the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) DF has made changes to the population for those two years.


Appendix E (ii)


Option 3 - 2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections (with MYE updated & 10 Year Average of Assumed Migration)Year beginning July 1st …………..







Appendix E (iii)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032All 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316SMigR: males 43.0 42.2 41.7 41.2 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.1 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.1 40.4 40.7 41.0 41.5 42.0 42.5 42.9 43.2 43.4 43.4 43.3 43.0 42.7SMigR: females 34.3 34.2 34.2 33.9 33.6 33.3 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.3 33.6 34.1 34.7 35.3 36.0 36.6 37.2 37.8 38.1 38.4 38.6 38.6Migrants input


Summary of population changeNatural change +276 +279 +262 +266 +274 +287 +306 +328 +348 +362 +368 +363 +347 +322 +286 +242 +189 +126 +54 -23 -104 -186 -269 -350 -426Net migration (Using 10Yr Trend) +206 +92 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523 +523Net change +482 +371 +785 +789 +797 +810 +829 +851 +871 +885 +891 +885 +870 +845 +809 +765 +712 +649 +577 +500 +419 +337 +254 +173 +97







Notes:By correcting the MYE for 2009 & 2010 (to bring them in line with the ONS released MYE) DF has made changes to the population for those two years. Further constraints within this projection is the Migration to a 10 Year Average.


Appendix E (iii)


2008 Welsh Government (Principal) Projections - Derived/Supply units conversion information

Forecast Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032Single conversion ratio derived units/supply unitsDwellings vacant rate 4.4%Dwellings holiday/second homes rate 0.4%Households sharing rate 0.1%Unemployment rateCommuting rate

Appendix E (iv)

population and household projections · population and household projections vale of glamorgan...

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