population considerations for the nuclear field danny smith, phd, pe copafs quarterly meeting june...
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Population Considerations for the Nuclear Field
Danny Smith, PhD, PECOPAFS Quarterly Meeting
June 3, 2011
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PREVIEW
• Basic Nuclear Concepts
• Shoreham (Wading River, New
York)
• Fukushima Daiichi (Okuma and
Futaba)
• Chernobyl (Pripyat, Ukraine)June 3, 2011 2
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Basic Nuclear Concepts
Radiation versus Radioactive Material
Radiation: energy, transience
Radioactive Material: substance, persistence
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Basic Nuclear Concepts
Chronic Dose versus Acute Dose
Chronic: smaller exposures, longer exposure periods, genetic damage
Acute: larger exposures, shorter exposure periods, immediate tissue damage
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Basic Nuclear Concepts
Time, Distance, Shielding
Time: minimum exposure duration
Distance: maximum distance from source
Shielding: maximum absorber between source and receptor
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Basic Nuclear Concepts
Latent Cancer Goal
10 probability of fatal cancer for members of the public
Higher probability allowed for nuclear workers
-6
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Basic Nuclear Concepts
Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or
event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
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Shoreham (Long Island)
Background• On Long Island Sound about 60
miles from Manhattan• Largely rural in 1960’s• Increasing demand for electric
power---------------------
• LILCO filed NRC application for 540 MW nuclear plant in 1968
• Estimated cost of $70 million
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Shoreham
Complications• Increased designed output to
820 MW• Two additional plants proposed
by LILCO closer to Manhattan• Protests by residents killed
plans for the two additional plants
• Three Mile Island Accident in 1979
• Revamped NRC regulations• Chernobyl accident in 1986• Long Island demographics
changed
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Shoreham
Key Events• 1981NRC declared the design safe• 1983 Suffolk County declared
evacuation impossible; Gov. Cuomo concurred
• 1985 NRC approved low-power testing
• Equivalent to 2 full power days• 1989 Gov. Cuomo and LILCO
reached agreement on shutdown of ShorehamJune 3, 2011 10
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Shoreham
Consequences• Shoreham sold to LIPA for $1• $6 billion cost of Shoreham to be
repaid with electricity surcharge• $50 million paid to Philadelphia
Power to take slightly used fuel• $186 million cost of
decontamination and decommissioning
• NEVER connected to the gridJune 3, 2011 11
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Shoreham Twin at Waterford, CT
• 50 miles away on Long Island Sound
• Operational in 5 years• Cost $100 million• Continued operation until 1998
What was the difference?
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Fukushima Daiichi
Background•6 Boiling Water Reactors: 3 operating, 3 under maintenance (total 4700 MW)•Located in the towns of Okuma and Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture •Approximately 50,000 households within 20 km•Design basis 19 foot tsunami
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Fukushima Daiichi
Accident Sequence•Tohoku Earthquake: auto shutdown•46 foot tsunami•Offsite Power: connection destroyed•Diesel Generators: flooded•Battery Power: limited life•Hydrolysis via hot zirconium cladding•Hydrogen conflagration
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Fukushima Daiichi
Reactor Consequences•Partial core meltdown in Units 1, 2, 3•Hydrogen explosions in Units 1 and 3; Unit 2?•Exposed spent fuel in Unit 1, 3, and 4 pools?•Release of about one tenth of the activity released from Chernobyl•24 million gallons of contaminated water•Accident rating of 7 for Units 1, 2, and 3 •Goal: cold shutdown in 6 to 9 months•Estimated 30 years to clean up site
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Fukushima Daiichi
Demographic Consequences•20 km exclusion zone•30 km evacuation zone•Extermination of contaminated livestock•Destruction of contaminated crops•Water contamination scare in Tokyo
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Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
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Fukushima Daiichi
Worker Dose and Implications for
Oldsters •Normal worker dose Limit: 50 mSv•250 mSv for emergency conditions•Dose is based on latent cancer risk•Latent cancer incubation period: 20 to 30 years •Older workers asked to volunteer•Skilled Veterans Corps
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Fukushima Daiichi
Skilled Veterans Corps
“Radiation exposure of the generation that will reproduce the next generation should be avoided.”
-- Yasuteru Yamada (age 72)
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Chernobyl
Consequences•Dozens of deaths from acute exposure•Thousands of excess cancer deaths•30 km exclusion zone•140 million curies released•Damage: $100’s of billions•Population displaced: over 100,000
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Basic Nuclear ConceptsDose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event) 0.04 NY to LA flight 0.4 Dose from typical diet 1 EPA public dose limit 2 Natural background 10 average CT scan 100 Evident lifetime cancer increase 1000 Temporary radiation sickness 10000 Fatal dose100000 Immediate fatal dose
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Chernobyl: Contaminated Areas
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Chernobyl
Interesting USSR Responses •Distribution of contaminated foods throughout Russian republics•By decree, radiation from Chernobyl not allowed as cause of death•“Washing” of clouds moving toward Moscow
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Chernobyl
Washing of Clouds •Seeding to cause rainfall•Less populated area selected (Novozibkov) •Total population of about 70,000•Approximately 10,000 times greater than normal radioactive material in soil•95% of dose to downwinders is from food, water, and milk intake•Coffin supplement
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