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Page 1: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

POPULATION POPULATION CYCLESCYCLES

Page 2: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?

A. The Concept of Cycles

Page 3: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

CYCLE CHARACTERISTICSCYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

Time

Ab

un

dan

ce

IncreasePhase

Peak Phase

Decline Phase

LowPhase

Page 4: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

MORE CHARACTERISTICS MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF CYCLESOF CYCLES

Regional synchrony in fluctuations of coexisting species,

Summer crashes in abundance A gradual disappearance of cycles

southward

Page 5: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?

B. Cycles and Body Size Biological times scale as :

nerve conduction time cardiac cycle time respiratory cycle time generation time lifespan

1 4W

Page 6: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? B. Cycles and Body Size

Mass (kg)

10-2 10-1 100 101 102 103 104

Cyc

le L

eng

th (

yrs)

100

101

102

Cycle = 8.15M0.26

Source: Peterson et al. (1984, Science 224:1350-1352)

n = 40 species

Page 7: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?

D. Longer-Period Cycles: Hares

Page 8: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?D. Longer-Period Cycles: Hares

Year

1865 1875 1885 1895 1905

Nu

mb

er

of

Ha

res

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000 period

am

pli

tud

e

Page 9: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?I. WHAT IS A CYCLE?

D. Longer-Period Cycles: Hares Coincident

cyclic speciesanimaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu

www.aquatic.uoguelph.ca

www.arttoday.com

Page 10: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

Archbishop Olaus Magnus and Lemmings

Page 11: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

Archbishop Olaus Magnus and Lemmings

Intrinsic Versus Extrinsic factors

Page 12: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Some Theories

1) Chitty’s Hypothesis- NS

2) Social Fence Hypothesis -

Page 13: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Time

Ab

un

da

nc

e

IncreasePhase

Peak Phase

Decline Phase

LowPhase

Pop Size increases

Competition increases: tolerants stay but low fertility

Pop size decreasing = emmigration & fertility

Animals spaced out & competition reduced

Page 14: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Some Theories

3) Climate- indirect/direct

Page 15: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Some Theories

4) Nodal Lunar Cycles & Sun Spots- 9.3 yr phase of moon = full moon during spring breeding

-

Page 16: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Some Theories

Page 17: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Some Theories

5) Trophic-Level Interactions* plant-herbivore* predator-prey* parasite-host* seasonality* predator switching

Page 18: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

A. Increase Phase high fertility rate low mortality rate young age structure large litters early age at first reproduction few predators

Time

Ab

un

da

nc

e

IncreasePhase

Peak Phase

Decline Phase

LowPhase

Page 19: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

B. Peak Phase fertility rate declines hares: decline in quality and

quantity of food

Time

Ab

un

dan

ceIncreasePhase

Peak Phase

Decline Phase

LowPhase

Page 20: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

B. Peak Phase fertility rate declines voles and lemmings: social

factors

Page 21: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline Phase low fertility rates high mortality rates old age structure

Time

Ab

un

da

nc

e

IncreasePhase

Peak Phase

Decline Phase

LowPhase

Page 22: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline Phase Role of food quality

Proteinase inhibitors common plant toxin pancreatic enlargement build up during peak and year

1 decline phase

Page 23: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

Proteinase inhibitors could cause: drastic declines in herbivore density changes in body size and organ

mass the high degree of synchrony in

fluctuations

Page 24: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline Phase Role of food quality

Reversion to juvenility woody plants and winter

browsing by hares juvenile defenses time lags of 2-3 years

Page 25: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Winter Dormant Twigs of Alaska Paper Birch Winter Dormant Twigs of Alaska Paper Birch

(B. neoalaskana)(B. neoalaskana)Mature Stage

Juvenile Stage

Note Resin Glands

Note Catkin And The Lack Of Resin Glands

Page 26: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Resin Gland on Current Year Twig Resin Gland on Current Year Twig InternodeInternode

Page 27: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

Results ofResults of B. neoalaskana B. neoalaskana Mature Vs. Juvenile Feeding Mature Vs. Juvenile Feeding TrialTrial

Mature Stage Twigs

Juvenile Stage Twigs

Note That These Twigs Do Not Have Catkins At Their Tip.

Page 28: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles
Page 29: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline Phase Role of predators

Pro

po

rtio

n S

urv

ivin

g

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Source: Krebs (1996, J. Mammal. 77:8-24)

June July August

Predator exclosure

Lemmingcontrols

Page 30: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline Phase: Role of Predators

www.abdn.ac.uk

Page 31: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

Indirect effects of predators

% Bank Voles in Diet

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

An

tip

red

ato

r R

es

po

ns

es

0

1

2

3

4

Source: Ylonen (1994, TREE 9:426-430)

Raccoondog

PolecatRed fox

Marten

Stoat

Weasel

www.abdn.ac.uk

Page 32: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

Indirect effects of predators diurnal raptors and indoor plumbing by

lemmings

www.goals.com

European kestrel

Collared lemming

Page 33: POPULATION CYCLES. I. WHAT IS A CYCLE? A. The Concept of Cycles

II. A GENERAL THEORY OF II. A GENERAL THEORY OF POPULATION CYCLESPOPULATION CYCLES

C. Decline and Low Phase Interaction of Food and Predators

>2-3x when food added or predators removed

>11x when food added and predators removed


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