Population exposure to PM2.5 in Europe

Measurements and modelling of PM2.5, 23-24 April 2009, Bilthoven

Frank de Leeuw, Jan Horálek

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 2

PM2.5 monitoring data

� Limited information in

AirBase

� 224 “valid“ stations

� rural:urban:traffic = 2 :5 : 4

� additional informationfrom reporting under

FWD

0 - 15 ug/m3

15 - 25 ug/m3

25 - 30 ug/m3

> 30 ug/m3

source: ETC/ACC-AIRBASE March 2009

PM2.5

annual mean

2007all stations, data coverage > 75%

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 3

AirBase - 2007

PM2.5 - 2007 - annual mean (ug/m3)

0

25

50

AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HU IE IT LT MT NO PL PT RO SE SK

rural

urban

traffic

max

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 4

Exceedance of PM2.5 LV 25 ug/m3 - 2007

PM2.5 annual mean

0

25

50

75

rural urban traffic

co

ncen

trati

on

(m

g/m

3)

aver aver>LV max

39

97

15

79

84

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 5

Exceedance of PM10 daily LV - 2007

PM10 36th highest day

0

50

100

150

rural urban traffic

co

ncen

trati

on

(u

g/m

3)

aver aver>LV max

229

16

870

245

632244

176 ug/m3

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 6

Recent trend ?

PM2.5 annual mean

0

10

20

30

2001 2003 2005 2007

urban traffic rural

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 7

Creating “new” data

� Conversion based on PM2.5/PM10 ratio

i. from ratio annual mean

ii. mean of daily ratios

iii. from regression on daily values:

bCratioCPMPM

+= 1025

∑∑ ⋅= 10,2

10,25,

11PMkPMkPMk

Ck

CCk

ratio

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 8

Co-located stations

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

PM10 (ug/m3)

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

traffic urban rural

Annual mean concentrations of PM10

and PM2.5

, period 2004-2006. The lines correspond with a PM

10/PM

2.5ratio of 0.8 and 0.5.

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 9

PM2.5 / PM10 ratios averaged for Europe and averaged per region and station type. The error bars indicate

plus/minus one standard deviation. The marked rural dots correspond to the adjusted ratios.

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5Europe north north-west central-east south

rati

orural

urban

traffic

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5Europe north north-west central-east south

rati

orural

urban

traffic

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5Europe north north-west central-east south

rati

orural

urban

traffic

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 10

Comparing with observations

(A) recalculated using European parameters

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

PM25 (ug/m3)

pse

ud

o-P

M2

.5 (

ug

/m3

)

rural

traffic

urban

(C) recalculated using country parameters

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

PM25 (ug/m3)

pse

ud

o-P

M2

.5 (

ug

/m3

)

rural

traffic

urban

(B) recalculated using regio parameters

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

PM25 (ug/m3)

pse

ud

o-P

M2

.5 (

ug

/m3

)

rural

traffic

urban

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 11

PM10 map, 2005 (ETC/ACC technical paper 2007/7)

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 12

PM2.5, 2005

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 13

Comparing with observations

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50

observed PM2.5 (ug/m3)

inte

rp

ola

ted

PM

2.5

(u

g/m

3)

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 14

Population exposure

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CYP PRT ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN

ex

po

sed

fra

cti

on

of

po

pu

lato

n (

%)

europe

regio

country

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

PRT CYP ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN

ex

ceed

an

ce a

rea

(in

% o

f la

nd

area

)

europe

regio

country

Extent of exceedance of 25 ug/m3 LV as fraction of

area population

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 15

Population exposure

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

CYP PRT ESP AUT GRC BGR ROU ITA POL CZE SVK HUN

po

pu

lati

on

weig

hte

d P

M2

.5 c

on

cen

tra

tio

n

europe

regio

country

Concentration in exceedance areas

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 16

Average Exposure Index

PM2.5 in urban areas

0

10

20

30

40

AU

T

BE

L

BG

R

CY

P

CZ

E

DE

U

DN

K

ES

T

ES

P

FIN

FR

A

GR

C

HU

N

IRL

ITA

LT

U

LU

X

LV

A

ML

T

NL

D

PO

L

PR

T

RO

U

SW

E

SV

N

SV

K

GB

R

PM

2.5

an

nu

al

mea

n (

ug

/m3

)

modelledPM2.5 in urban areas

0

10

20

30

40

AU

T

BE

L

BG

R

CY

P

CZ

E

DE

U

DN

K

ES

T

ES

P

FIN

FR

A

GR

C

HU

N

IRL

ITA

LT

U

LU

X

LV

A

ML

T

NL

D

PO

L

PR

T

RO

U

SW

E

SV

N

SV

K

GB

R

PM

2.5

an

nu

al

mea

n (

ug

/m3

)

modelled observed 2007

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 17

Requirements AEI reduction

10%

15%

20%

>25%

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 18

Health Impact Assessment

� Premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure:

� Exposed populaltion are adults > 30 year

� all causes; RR=1.06

� Lung cancer; RR= 1.13

� Cardiopulmonary diseases; RR=1.08

� Country-specific demographic data from WHO and

UN Population Division

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 19

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 20

Sensitivity runs

1. Compliance with LV of 25 ug/m3 (effective value

for 10x10 okm grid= 20.8 ug/m3)

2. Realizing the exposure reduction target

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 21

Reducing YOLL

0

10

20

30

40

50

BG

R

HU

N

PO

L

CZ

E

RO

U

SV

K

NL

D

CY

P

GR

C

BE

L

ML

T

PR

T

ITA

LT

U

FIN

ES

P

DN

K

LV

A

GB

R

AU

T

DE

U

FR

A

ES

T

LU

X

SW

E

SV

N

NO

R

LIE

ISL

IRL

percen

tag

e

LV compliance AEI reduction target

0

10

20

30

40

50

BG

R

HU

N

PO

L

CZ

E

RO

U

SV

K

NL

D

CY

P

GR

C

BE

L

ML

T

PR

T

ITA

LT

U

FIN

ES

P

DN

K

LV

A

GB

R

AU

T

DE

U

FR

A

ES

T

LU

X

SW

E

SV

N

NO

R

LIE

ISL

IRL

percen

tag

e

LV compliance AEI reduction target

0

10

20

30

40

50

BG

R

HU

N

PO

L

CZ

E

RO

U

SV

K

NL

D

CY

P

GR

C

BE

L

ML

T

PR

T

ITA

LT

U

FIN

ES

P

DN

K

LV

A

GB

R

AU

T

DE

U

FR

A

ES

T

LU

X

SW

E

SV

N

NO

R

LIE

ISL

IRL

percen

tag

e

LV compliance AEI reduction target

PM2.5 workshop, Bilthoven, 23-24 April 2009, Frank de Leeuw 22

Conclusions

� PM2.5 network still not in place

� PM10 LV more stringent than PM2.5 LV

� last five years no trend in PM2.5

� meeting the AEI reduction target requires

reductions of 10 to more than 25%

� 456000 premature deaths attributabale to PM2.5

� meeting the PM2.5 LV will reduce YOLL with 5%

� meeting the exposure reduction target: 17%