population policies - case study of india
TRANSCRIPT
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chapter 1 – Introduction
1.1 - Context
Development, population and population policy in India shall form the substance
of this Study.
1.1.1. – Why Population ?
The population of the world is projected to reach 9 million by 2050. The 20 th
century transformed the demographic profile of the world. It began with a population of
1.6 billion and ended with a population of 6.1 billion (Population Reference Bureau,
2004). Public discourses on population tend to flow in one of two directions. One centres
around unprecedented low fertility in many countries. The other emphasizes the
continued growing population in the less developed regions of the globe. The latter shall
form the subject matter of this study.
It is almost certain that nearly all future population growth shall occur in the
developing regions of the world (WB, 1985, Sen and Iyer, 2002, Population Reference
Bureau, 2004). To that extent the average level of human welfare will depend on the
degree of welfare in those areas. Amidst modernisation, neo-liberalism, post-modernism,
feminism, decentralisation, projects, programmes, aid, governments, politics, economics,
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
growth, finance, markets, NGOs, World Bank, UN, IMF – the explosive matter that
‘development’ is made of - lie the people. Development in the ultimate analysis is about
living people. Population meaning ‘people’ and their welfare form the central concern of
development. It is with people and the policies that affect them that this study shall deal.
Furthermore, population trends have vast and wide ranging impact on everything from
economic patterns to the balance of political power (Ghadar, 2005). Demographic
discourses within the development industry have run in different directions. The question
‘Is rapid population growth a problem or is it an exaggeration?’ is often debated. The
main views have been that a greater population means there is less to go around, more
mouths to feed, cloth and house and general despair. The contrasting view is that
population growth is not a problem at all and in fact it provides an impetus to human
activity, innovation and technology.
1.1.2. – Why Population Policy?
Fertility planning and population control have long been the subject matter of
public policy in developing countries. The integration of population variables into
development planning has been made with the goal of accommodating anticipated
population trends. Education, public works, health-care delivery, agricultural extension
programs, and employment-generating programs are all examples of programs that utilize
population data to accommodate various demographic trends (U.N. 1990). The size of the
population, its characteristics, spatial and rural-urban distribution, rate of growth and its
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
determinants decide the quantum, pattern and distribution of consumption and
production. It is, therefore, only natural for the state or the government to be concerned
about population. Such concern is most essential for a complex democratic society
seeking to eradicate poverty and ensure adequate standards of living for its people
(Visaria, P. 2002). These are sensitive issues in which fundamental human values are at
stake. It is a subject which touches issues central to the human condition, including
personal freedom and the definition of economic and social progress (W.B., 1985,
Yunker, 2003). Rational public policy, state or other interventions in such a sensitive area
can and have had appalling backlashes. Thus, population policies though considered
central to development planning have a delicate ground on which to tread.
1.1.3. – Why India?
A nation with a population which has crossed the one billion mark1, a nation
where more than 260 million officially lead a life of deprivation2, a nation which for
several decades now, has been attempting to move out of the ‘low-income’ category. This
researcher says welcome to India. ‘For long, India has struck the observer as being both
crowded and poor.’ (Cassen, 1978, p. 2). Over centuries a stagnant perception of India
has been marked by the ubiquitous characteristics of a massive population and chronic
poverty. India is a country of contradictions – where the rich and poor live side by side,
where great minds and illiteracy flourish, where the number of trained doctors and
1 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/3575994.stm 2 Human Development Report India - 2005
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
number of ailing people both increase each year. Furthermore, population and family
planning services in India are significant not only because of their impact on India but
because of the country’s large size and still relatively high growth rate means that India
contributes significantly to the level and pattern of world population growth (Donaldson,
2002). Therefore, it is this land which is residence to the greatest number of the poor 3
(Virmani, 2006) in the world that provides the location of this study.
1.2 - Research Objectives, Questions and Methods
1.2.1 - Research Objectives
In light of the above, this study seeks an understanding of population and
development interlinkages. More importantly it seeks an appreciation of the extent public
policy in the sphere of population planning can advance the development process in the
case of India. Thus, India shall form the unit of analysis. Furthermore, the focus will be
on understanding the importance of population policy, how and why it has evolved and
the dynamics that go into its making. This study will link population policy on the macro
scale with implementation and other issues on the micro scale. The New Population
Policy (NPP) launched in 2000 shall be examined and analysed. Its theoretical
underpinnings will be uncovered. Its professed impact shall be examined. Furthermore,
major assumptions and other rationales shall be critiqued.
3 http://www.rdiland.org/OURWORK/OurWork_India.htmlt
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
1.2.2 - Research Questions
In doing the above, the following research questions shall be the guiding light.
1. What are the interlinkages between population and development?
2. What are the theoretical underpinnings of the NPP?
3. What are the causes for high fertility in India?
4. Does the NPP address the causes of high fertility in India?
5. Whether and how does the new policy take into account cultural, religious and
economic differences within India?
6. What are the plausible effects of the NPP?
1.2.3 – Research methods
To achieve the above mentioned objectives, this study shall employ qualitative
and quantitative research methods. It shall review secondary qualitative data in the form
of policy documents, writings and views expressed by experts in the field. Furthermore,
to examine and establish the macro-micro links, it shall use the case study method, where
a case study of India will be conducted. Use of descriptive statistics and maps shall be
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
made to gain a pragmatic grasp of India’s demographics. Thus, review and analysis of
secondary data along with descriptive statistics shall form the principal research methods.
1.3 – Framework for Policy Analysis
Parsons (1995) states that the analysis of policies has increasingly taken on a
multidisciplinary character. The analysis of policy requires an understanding of political
science, philosophy, economics, psychology, sociology as well as the historical, legal,
anthropological and geographical contexts of public policy. Thus, policy analysis
necessarily needs to maintain a multidisciplinary framework approach. Frameworks for
policy analysis include analysis of policy, policy monitoring and evaluation and analysis
for policy. Analysis of policy include - Policy determination which is concerned with
how policy is made, why, when and for whom; Policy content which involves a
description of a particular policy and how it developed in relation to other earlier policies,
or it may be informed by a theoretical/ value framework which seeks to offer a critique of
policy. Policy monitoring and evaluation examine how policies have performed against
policy goals and what impact a policy may have had on a given problem. Analysis for
policy include – Policy advocacy which involves research and arguments which are
intended to influence the policy agenda inside and outside government; information for
policy which gives feedback into the policy-making activities (Parsons, 1995, Baldock,
Manning and Vickerstaff 2003 and Hill, 2005).
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
This study shall carry a cross – framework analysis. It will employ certain
aspects of the different kinds of policy analysis. Some of the past policy archives will be
dug up, reasons for high fertility in India will be discovered, theoretical underpinnings
and key features of the New Population Policy will be examined, the possible impact of
the policy will be investigated, inherent contradictions within the policy will be revealed,
the impact of the policy on population outcomes and on social development in the
country will be probed into and shortcomings of the policy will be addressed. Thus,
macro-micro linkages will be drawn on the basis of a multi-disciplinary framework.
Ultimately, conclusions will be drawn and possible future scenarios will be depicted.
1.4 – Chapter Outline
Chapter 1 has laid out the context of the study. Chief objectives of the study have
been established. Furthermore the research objectives, questions and methods have been
specified. A framework for analysis has been drawn up. Chapter 2 shall examine the
principal discourses prevalent in the filed. It shall establish the different interlinkages
between population and development. Furthermore, changing paradigms and logics
behind different population policies will be ascertained. The dominant views on the
world stage as expressed through the international conferences on population and
development shall be determined. Chapter 3 shall then proceed to set out the background
for the case study of India. A brief background, followed by the administrative and
political set up will introduce the reader to India. Development Planning and Population
Planning in India will be examined to get an understanding of what guides policies in the
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
country. Past population policies will be outlined in brief. Spatial and temporal features
that form India’s demographic profile will be sketched. Chapter 4 shall form the main
analytical chapter. Reasons for high fertility in India shall be investigated. Key features
of the NPP will be detailed in to provide a full understanding of the setting. Whether and
how the NPP fits into India’s aims, policy and development setting and apparent needs
according to the reasons uncovered will then be analysed. Finally, chapter 5 shall form
the conclusion. Herein, lessons learnt from the different chapters will be noted. The main
findings will be specified. Conclusions on the analysis will be drawn. Ultimately possible
future policy options will be laid down.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chapter 2 : Interlinkages between Population and
Development
2.1 - Introduction:
Population growth at exponential rates has essentially been a topic of classical
economics (Demeny and McNicoll 1998). However over time, it has acquired a variety of
different shades. Environmental issues, issues of human rights, political and racial issues
and recently issues of female empowerment and social development are seen through the
‘prism of population’ (Furedi, 1997). Population discourses range from discussions on
stages of population growth (transition) to environmental impacts and carrying capacity
of the earth to ethical issues concerning birth control. Thus, they straddle concerns in
economics, ethics, human rights, environment and social development. Arguments as to
whether population growth is a ‘problem’ have raged on, while population policies of
myriad natures in different countries have flourished. This chapter shall examine the
different dominant themes prevalent linking population and development. It shall study
the changing trends in academic and practitioners thought as to their understanding and
position on population and development. Furthermore, it shall examine the changing
rationales of population policies.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
2.2 - Principal discourses in Population and Development
The two governing schools of thought in economics relating population and
development have been the Malthusian and the Boserupian schools of thought.
Subsequent authors may have modified and added to these two schools, but they still
remain the principal themes running across most writings on population and
development.
It was Malthus, an English pastor in the 1800’s who first popularized the
questions about population growth. His focus was population growth and the carrying
capacity of the earth. He said, ‘Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometric
ratio; Subsistence increases only in an arithmetic ratio. (Malthus, 1998, p.14)’ Malthusian
doomsday prophesies brought attention of the world and its people on the plausible
effects of a growing population. He stated that the power of population is indefinitely
greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Furthermore, he
argued that an increase in agricultural productivity results in increasing population size
but does not result in any long term improvement in the standard of living. For the
Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians population growth is the root cause of poverty, hunger,
environmental destruction, disease and social unrest. Further, Malthus predicted that a
time shall come when a ravaged world will not be able to support its teaming millions
and will end in destruction.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Writers such as Settles (2006) and Ehrlich (2006) are of Malthusian persuasion.
Ehrlich (2006) constructs a scenario where the doubling of the human population
continues unchecked for another twenty doublings and a situation arises where each
human being has one square foot of space. He continues by saying that this explosive
exponential human growth will stop before such a point is reached. However, the main
issue is whether the exponential growth is halted by relatively benign means or by
increasing death rates due to starvation, disease, war, famine, infanticide, and
environmental degradation. Settles’ (2006) argument runs along the same lines. He is of
the view that population growth is not something which will stabilize itself but needs
human effort. The essay in its undertone questions whether humanity will come to its
senses of its own accord or will need a slap in the face to be awakened. It is time to
realize that humankind is reaching the diminishing returns phase of human population
growth. Furthermore, he comments that, ‘if we do not impose sustainability constraints
ourselves, then nature will do so for us.’ He concludes by saying that Malthus' analysis
was not wrong, only his timing.
Boserup’s (1981, 1990) writings, on the other hand, focus on the
interrelation between rapid growth in population and fast technological advancements.
She observes that the effect of population increase can be either negative (as focused on
by Malthusian theory) or positive. Population increase motivated and often facilitated
technological change, and therefore its effects on development were positive. She goes on
to stress the beneficial effects of an increasing population on infrastructural investment
and technological levels. She is a strong advocate of promoting technological change
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
irrespective of its effects on population growth. She suggests creation of economic
opportunities in rural areas as more important than fertility decline for development.
Furthermore, she traces how demographic pressures at different times in history have
propelled mankind towards making technological progress and how societies may
stagnant in the absence of such pressures.
For Simon (1981) low rates of fertility are a problem because of a tendency to
narrow total demand in the market. This is the view of the underconsumptionist
economics argument, the logic of which is the more people, the bigger the market, and
the more growth. They appear to be mirror-images of the Malthusian viewpoint. He
argues that the real problem is when population growth declines too fast. This would
result in a fall in investment and a fall in income. Hirschman (1958) puts forth the
proposition that population pressure on living standards will lead to counter pressure that
is to activity designed to maintain or restore the traditional standard of living. This is on
the basis of a psychological postulate which says that people will resist a lowering in
their standard of living. The activity undertaken to maintain living standards will result in
the community now exploiting opportunities for economic growth that existed previously
but were left unutilized. He stresses the energizing effect of population pressure in
inducing new developments and its direct positive influence leading to improved
performance of the administrative, political and cultural processes. However, he realizes
that the above situation could occur only if certain assumptions were to hold true. If
population growth is slow and the consequent decline in living standards is also slow then
the positive reaction may not be strong. Kogel and Prskawetx (2001) suggest a model in
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
which fertility declines and economic growth accelerates. The driving force is the
assumption that parents face a quality – quantity trade off. Further, declining infant
mortality rates leads to falling precautionary demand for children and to rising human
capital accumulation. For that reason, population growth declines and human capital
accumulation replaces population growth as the engine of economic growth.
Cain and McNicoll (1988) examine agrarian outcomes in the face of population
growth. They are of the view that typical Malthusian and Boserupian views misstate the
relations and ignore major determinates of agrarian outcomes. They consider family
systems and local-level community and administrative organisations as central to an
understanding of this relation and conclude by saying that four simple changes could
resolve the impasse and set it on a new development path. Sheer informational activity,
spreading knowledge of alternative systems and behaviour, technological change, minor
structural change or radical structural change could be the ways forward.
Neurath (1994) looks at both sides of the argument. He examines the Malthusian
and neo- Malthusian writers as well as the advancement of technology and innovation
argument. He looks at what the pessimists and optimists have to say. However, he throws
in his lot with the pessimists. He ends on a positive note, saying there is still a slight ray
of hope as figures show decrease in population growth rates.
Critics and adherents of both schools have been numerous. The
perceptions of the effects of rapid population increase on growth have changed over time.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Furthermore, it has taken on different tones. This study shall now look at the changing
perceptions and the development of schools of thought in different subject areas.
2.3 - Interlinkages between Population and Development
Post World War II and independence of the now developing countries saw a
wide acceptance of population planning in most third world countries (Furedi, 1997,
Simon, 1981, Johnson, 1995). The first national population policies evolved as
governments came to understand the consequences of rapid population growth and high
fertility both for their national development efforts as well as for the welfare of families
and individuals. Several countries, particularly in Asia, actively promoted policies aimed
at facilitating fertility reduction and lowering population growth rates. Indeed, by the end
of 1969, the governments of about thirty less-developed countries, comprising almost
two-thirds of the combined populations of the less-developed regions, had adopted
national family planning programmes as integral parts of their development policies
(Johnson, 1995). Demeny and McNicoll (1998) state that few would dispute that the size
and rate of growth of population have profound effects on human societies, their
governance and environment. If the outcomes are distinguished from ‘development’ that
is because development is construed narrowly only in terms of income. Thus, the logic of
economic growth has pushed forward population policies.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
‘The Limits to Growth’ a report prepared by Meadows et. al. (1972) for The Club
of Rome was an important influence in further strengthening the imminent needs of
population planning. The authors tried to reach as wide a public as possible with their
general warning of a looming collapse of the life-supporting system on earth, unless
mankind soon changed its ways of rapid growth of population, rapid depletion of
resources, and rapid pollution of the environment. The report (through use of
computations and other assumptions) came to the conclusion that if mankind kept
growing at the then current level (1970’s level) of 2 percent, and kept increasing its per-
capita consumption of irreplaceable goods at the then current rate of 1.5 percent per year,
(on the assumed total available supplies), a general breakdown of the system could be
expected within a century. The authors added that the dire consequences could be
avoided – if both growth of the population and increase in per-capita consumption of
irreplaceable resources were to be slowed down systematically and brought to a virtual
standstill. However the authors refrained from suggesting recommendations on how to
achieve this slowing down. It was a strictly non-political report. They refrained from such
ethical issues as who is to be allowed to have children who is not, and who is to produce
and sell and who is to receive what materials and what products.
The World Bank conducted a study entitled ‘Population Change and Economic
Development’ in 1985. The study predicted that with luck, sudden famine, war, political
or environmental collapse maybe avoided. However continued rapid growth of
population in the poorer areas of the globe would mean more people who are poor,
hungry, uneducated, lacking basic subsistence, housing and sanitation. Furthermore,
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
investment in population quality becomes more difficult. Population growth threatens the
precarious balance between natural resources and people. It becomes difficult to manage
the adjustments that accompany and promote economic and social change. It talks about
the costs of population growth stressing the costs of educating, feeding, housing and
providing per person which would not be a wise investment. However, the study
acknowledges that moderate rates of population growth can be beneficial as they
stimulate demand, encourage technological innovation, reduce investment risks, cause
continuous upgradation of the labour force through better education, and increase a
countries political, economic and military power. Disadvantages of too scarce a
population are also recognized such as failure to benefit from economies of scale in
transport, communication, social services and production. Furthermore, it goes on to
explain why population growth today is more of a problem than it was for the developed
countries when they were developing. The scale of population growth is bigger, large
scale migration (as to the Americas in the 1800’s) is not possible, large tracts of
uncultivated land are not available, human and physical capital are not adequately built
up, income is still low and political as well as social institutions are less well established.
The study accepts the Boserupian view that population growth itself helps bring
technological change. However, it points out that fact remains that no evidence proves
that a large and rapidly growing population has itself been influential in promoting new
technology. Thus, though the study is principally economic in nature, it inadvertently
touches upon several social issues such as education, health, pensions, housing and
urbanization.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
These and several other writings of the time (Chandrashekhar, S., 1967, Heer, D.,
1968, Jayasurya, D.C., 1979, Repetto, R. 1979, Findlay and Findlay, 1987) urged
developing countries through their findings to embark on large scale population
programmes and adopt demographic targets and goals. They were determinative as to the
goals of population policies in different developing countries. However, implementation
of the resultant policies provided road blocks. Did development come prior to population
control or was a huge population a hurdle to a countries development? These questions
began to plague the governments of most developing countries around the 1980s. Most
policies had adopted punitive measures, incentives and disincentives in their efforts at
population control and stabilisation. However, the horrors of inhumane abortions in
China and forced sterilizations in India began to surface. These are often told 4 (Neurath,
1994) even till date whenever population debates take place.
These relationships between population and development have been captured by
different writers. Blanchet (1991) identifies three different relationships between
population and development. Transition theory views industrialisation as a necessary
condition for fertility decline. Orthodoxy theory views population growth as a cause of
4 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/htmlContent.jhtml?html=/archive/1998/06/14/wchi14.html, http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/mar/06032305.html, http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=507, http://www.thenewamerican.com/tna/2000/12-04-2000/vo16no25_infanticide.htm, http://www.indianchild.com/indira_gandhi.htmhttp://extras.journalnow.com/againsttheirwill/background/storybody19.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5262748.stm, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_sterilization#India_.26_China, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=11648679&dopt=Abstract,Wall Street Journal, 6 August 1999, (Eastern Edition) N.Y.,Wall Street Journal, 29 August 2006, (Eastern Edition) N.Y.Far Eastern Economic Review. Hong Kong: Oct 14, 2004. Vol. 167, Iss. 41
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
continued underdevelopment and therefore fertility decline must be induced by deliberate
state intervention, if not by coercion. Revisionism theory holds that population growth is
a neutral phenomenon with respect to economic development, or even beneficial to it.
Thus, Population growth is to be encouraged as it provides stimuli to economic growth.
However, ‘this position is rarely held concerning developing countries, it is implicit
behind most population statements concerning developed countries.’
Furedi (1997) examines changes in the relations between population and development
as well as the implementation of policies on a historical trajectory. He traces three stages
of intellectual representation of this encounter. Initially after the world war, development
was promoted as a panacea to the population problem. From the 1960’s the relationship
was reversed and population control was considered to be the prerequisite for
development. Post 1975, the linkage between the two seems to be dissolving. The nexus
between population and development is gradually eroding from the minds of the general
public and the academics. Eight main views are considered. Table 2.1 provides a
summarised explanation of each of these views. Furedi (1997) elucidates other interesting
concepts on population such as
Competitive fertility - fertility is linked to the considerations of power and rival
communities view each other with suspicion,
Eugenics – the science of improving the human stock by promoting superior
people and races over the less suitable ones.
Social Darwinism – people of the world are different and they exist at different
levels of human evolution. Superiority was linked to the power to reproduce. High
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
rates of fertility were not only seen as symptoms of racial vitality, but also as
essential for the exercise of global power.
Perspective Understanding
Developmentalist Population growth as a major obstacle to development, as valuable
resources are diverted from productive expenditure to the feeding
of a growing population
Redistributionist High fertility is cause and not effect of poverty. Poverty, lack of
economic resources, low status of women, high mortality rates of
children and other factors force people to have large families.
Solution lies in changing the status of poor people, through
education and reform.
Limited Resources Synthesis between traditional Malthusian concern about natural
limits and the preoccupation of contemporary environmentalism.
Socio-Biological Politicized limited resources view. Views people as polluters and
population growth as a pathological problem which threatens not
only limited resources but also a way of life. In the west it calls
for reduced aid to developing countries and immigration control.
People-as-a-source
of instability
Post world war two, high fertility, rising expectations of growing
number of people and differential rate of fertility between the
north and south represents a potential threat and stimuli for future
wars and conflicts.
Women and Human
Rights
Subordination of women, their exclusion from the decision making
process and insufficient access to safe reproductive technology has
kept birth rates higher than women would like.
People-as-Problem-
Solvers
Does not recognize a greater population as a problem as people are
looked at as problem solvers. More people mean better technology,
economic growth and stimulation.
Religious Pro-
Natalist
The most vocal opponents to population policy. Population growth
is positive and is justified on religious grounds.
Table 2.1 – The nexus between population and development
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
These can be called the political determinants of population as a ‘problem’. It is
Furedi’s (1997) understanding that no real link exists between population and
development and that they must part ways. However, he opines that it is these political
considerations of power, stability and war which have kept official development
assistance going into the population projects. Aguirre and Hadley (2005) are in
agreement with Furedi (1997) when they state that to avoid negative connotations of
racism, imperialism and coercion population control is packaged in the more acceptable
terminology of environmental protection and women’s empowerment. Thus, population
programmes are a cover-up for the not so benign designs of the developed countries that
continually fear developing countries will overtake them by the sheer might of their
numbers.
Caldwell (2005) has examined the importance of American research in pushing
forward the population control programmes in the 1950s and he finds that even in their
absence the programmes would have eventually been adopted. Once globabalization of
health care lead to falling mortality rates, some checks would be required to bring about a
commensurate change in birth rates. He opines that the demographic theory of the 1950s
was a product of the demographic transition itself.
Duden (1992) traces the growth of discourses in population in a post-development
light. She examines transition of the term population from being a ‘verbal noun’ (Duden,
1992, p.147) through statistics to an aggregating device which reduces persons to
bloodless entities that can be managed as characterless classes that reproduce, pollute,
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
produce or consume, and for the common good, call for control. She criticises the call for
birth control from 1950 onwards and especially during the 1970’s. Duden (1992) is also
of the opinion that population and development share no relation and that people should
be left on their own to decide on their most intimate sexual behaviour.
Thus, it appears that the relation between population and development is contested.
Economists, human rights activists, developers, environmentalists and feminists have all
had their say in this continuing and yet unresolved debate. On the world stage these
paradigms have enjoyed the limelight at different times. This study shall now examine
the changing logics and perceptions as to the rationale for population planning.
2.4 - Changing Paradigms and Logics of Population Policies and Programmes 5
The raison d’etre behind population policies seems to be continuously shifting. New
arguments promoting population stabilisation and control grip the world every decade.
The sixties saw leading American officials initiate a crusade for population control. The
argument deployed was simple: since population growth was a major obstacle to
development, the control of fertility was the obvious solution to the problem. Funds spent
on population programmes were considered to be better value for money than
investments on development projects. Two international conferences on Population and
Development had been held under the auspices of the UN – the first in Rome in 1954 and
5 This section is based on a reading, understanding and adaptation of the writings of Johnson (1995), Correa (1994), Pine, R. (1994), Hewitt and Smyth (2004) and the Programme of Action as adopted by the International Conference on Population and Development.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
the second in Belgrade in 1964. However, these earlier meetings were not gatherings of
official governmental representatives but rather technical and scientific assemblies where
experts could examine population trends in different parts of the world and assess their
implications.
It was at Bucharest in 1974 that the World Population Plan of Action was adopted
and an attempt made to define, amongst other policy and programme objectives, the goals
and targets for reducing high rates of population growth and high levels of fertility. There
was a clash of competing ideologies. The question, what came first, population
stabilisation or development was in the centre of this battlefield. Family planning was
established as a ‘human right’. The need to protect the environment, the need to empower
women, the need to curb global migration and the need to defend international stability
began playing a more central role than economic motives. However, other considerations
such as north-south controversy about the distribution of resources overtook the
conference and gave it a more political character. Third world countries argued that
population problems were not causes but effects of underdevelopment and they called for
‘a New International Order’. The final resolution at the Bucharest Conference toned
down the one-dimensional emphasis on population programmes. The slogan
‘Development is the best Contraception’ was coined and widely accepted. Post-
Bucharest, saw an acceptance of a more developmental vocabulary obscuring the single-
minded pursuance of the early population programmes. Subsequently, population
programmes and policy were recast in poverty and equity terms and reduction in poverty
provided the new motive for families to reduce their size. This recasting then attracted
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
the earlier critics of the coercive policies of population control as it promoted the
improvement in the quality of life and attacked inequalities. Some of the means of
implementing the new redistributionist approach to population were raising rural
incomes, educating parents, especially women, improving the status of women, reducing
infant mortality and the provision of family planning services. However, the final Plan of
Action merely suggested countries to consider adopting population policies, within the
framework of socio-economic development
Post-Bucharest substantial differences remained in the approaches to population
questions. August, 1984 saw the International Conference on Population in Mexico City.
The United States threw a bombshell into the proceedings by arguing for ‘market-based
solutions’ to population and threatened to withdraw funding. No real consensus was
produced on the question of population, however, the final Resolution called for major
efforts to ‘ensure that all couples and individuals can exercise the basic human right to
decide freely, responsibly and without coercion, the number and spacing of their children
and to have the information, education and means to do so.’ The Brundtland report
(widely credited for having developed the concept of sustainable development) of 1987
took a comprehensive view of the population-environment-development nexus. The
nineties saw an explosion of environmental consciousness in the West. However, the
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992 did not take as vociferous a position as to the population-
environment-development nexus as was expected. The UNCED tried and failed to say
23
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
something definitive about population and its relationship to environment and
development
It was 1994, that saw the International Conference on Population and Development
(ICPD) take place in Cairo. The message was clear as preparations for the ICPD
advanced - ‘by acting vigorously and effectively to turn back the tide of population
growth and to reduce human fertility, mankind would in a very real sense be taking back
or reasserting its duty and its ability to control its own destiny (Johnson, 1995, p.27).’
Different themes such as population and human rights; population and development;
population, resources and the environment; population and urbanisation; population and
peace all played a part in the process for building the consensus for action. However, it
was population and women which took centre stage as far as the main theme of the Cairo
conference went. A women’s right to bear a child, one of the fundamental human rights,
increasingly came to be linked to a women’s right not to bear a child. She was to be
control of her own body. Politically articulate women particularly those associated with
feminist groupings were becoming especially aware that the population debate was taking
place over their heads. Men, not women, were determining population policies, working
out family planning targets and quotas, devising rewards and penalties for good or bad
performance and yet, it was women’s bodies which were, as it were, the delivery
mechanisms of all population and family planning programmes. The big question then
was how women could not be the primary decision-makers as it was on their cooperation
that all prospects of success rested. The ICPD was marked by a harsh criticism of ‘top
down’ population control programmes which in the opinion of many speakers put an
24
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
emphasis on demographic targets which too often lead to insensitive and coercive
services. Furthermore, a women’s alliance asked the International Women’s Health
Coalition (IWHC), a US-based organisation to be the secretariat. They prepared the
declaration which was to go on the table in Cairo. The Declaration asserted that sexual
and reproductive health and rights were fundamental to all people. It spelt out a set of
operating principles and programme strategies to ensure that these rights were exercised.
The Brasilia Charter (a document which emerged as a result of the National Encounter on
Women and Development - Our Rights in Cairo ’94) brought together representatives
from over 70 different women’s organisations, experts and institutions specialising in
development and demographics. It pressed for women’s reproductive rights to be
recognised. Equally significant, they campaigned for women’s access to education,
training and jobs, especially in fields where gender discrimination persisted, and in
specialised areas. The Women’s Environment and Development Organisation (another
dominant women’s organisation participating in the ICPD) main priorities were to ensure
women’s participation, addressing the rights and needs of women, and recognizing the
central role of women in every issue related to population and development. Subsequent
to all the preparations, the International Conference on Population and Development
(ICPD) was held in Cairo, Egypt, from 5-13 September 1994. Delegations from 179
States took part in negotiations to finalise a Programme for Action in population and
development for the next twenty years. The document endorses a new strategy which
emphasises the numerous interlinkages between population and development and focuses
on meeting the needs of individual women and men rather than on achieving
demographic targets. Key to the new approach was empowering women and providing
25
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
them more choice through expanded access to education and health services and
promoting skills development and employment. The programme advocates making
family planning services available universally by 2015. Thus, the programme implies that
policies and programmes should not focus only on population numbers and growth rates.
It argues instead for an integrated approach linking population action to development,
including human development, women’s empowerment, gender equality and the needs of
young people. It shifts the basis of population thinking away from a primarily macro
focus to one grounded in the rights of people (Sen and Iyer, 2002). This is the theme
which now runs in the minds of those working within the stream of population and
development.
(Table 2.2 provides a condensed understanding of these changing rationales over
time. Resolutions and focus of each conference along with the year and location of the
conference are shown).
Conference Year Resolution/Focus
Prior to Bucharest
Conference, (Rome,
Belgrade, )
1954,
1964
Rapid Population growth is an obstacle to economic
growth; therefore, population control and stabilisation
are essential for development. Establishment of
population policies and programmes in most
developing countries.
World Conference on
Population, Bucharest
1974 Redistributionist + Development is the Best
Contraception, Therefore population policies were to
be adopted within the wider framework of socio-
economic development
International
Conference on
1984 It is the basic human right of all human beings to
decide on the number and spacing of their children,
26
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Population, Mexico
City
therefore, make widely available contraception and
information about family planning services.
United Nations
Conference on
Environment and
Development, Rio de
Janeiro
1992 Establishment of the population – environment –
development nexus. Control and stabilise population
growth in the interest of the environment in developing
countries and change consumption patterns in
developed countries to make development more
sustainable.
International
Conference on
Population and
Development, Cairo
1994 Population and women – central theme – criticism of
the top down population policies and demographic
targets which had resulted in insensitive and coercive
programmes. Therefore, empowering women,
expanding choice and making family planning services
available to all.
Table 2.2 – Changing Rationales for population policies and programmes
2.5 - Conclusion
The rationales, logics and professed aims of population policies have continually
evolved. However, stabilising the population, curbing its rapid growth, providing family
planning services and educating the masses about its effects have remained the
underlying themes running through the fabric of population programmes and policies.
Having examined the principal schools of thought on population growth, the perceptions
on interlinkages between population and development and having traced changing
rationales for population policies on the world stage, this research shall now proceed to
conduct a case study. In the aforesaid background, an analysis of the New Population
Policy of India 2000 shall be carried out.
27
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chapter 3 – India: A Case Study
3.1 - Introduction
Having examined the different theories about the effects of population growth as
well as having traced the different perceptions of interlinkages between development and
population growth, this chapter and the next together, shall proceed with conducting a
case study of India. The precise aim is to gain an understanding of the situation in India
and how public policy has tried to shape demographics. Furthermore, answers are also
sought to whether the changing policies are adequate and address the principal reasons
for high fertility. But before that, it is essential to get an understanding of the country
itself. Outlined below is a brief introduction to India, its geographical location, its
administrative and political set up. Details about India’s development planning methods
shall follow. India’s efforts in population planning shall then be laid out. Spatial and
temporal characteristics of India’s population shall be examined.
28
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
3.2 - Facts about India
3.2.1 - Introduction and Geographical Location 6
India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-
largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the largest
liberal democracy in the world. Located on a vast tongue shaped promontory that juts
southwards from the continent of Asia, India is well marked off from the rest of Asia by
mountains and seas. The country is bounded by the snow-capped Himalayan mountain
ranges in the north, and tapering southwards, by the Bay of Bengal on the south-east and
the Arabian Sea on the south-west. It shares borders with Pakistan to the west, Nepal, the
People's Republic of China and Bhutan to the north-east, and Bangladesh and Myanmar
to the east. With an area of 1.2 million square miles (about the third of the area of the
United States excluding Alaska), India stretches about 2,000 miles from Kashmir in the
north to Cape Comorin in the south and about 1,850 miles from Assam in the east to
Gujarat in the west. The country lies entirely in the Northern hemisphere and extends
between latitudes 8 and 37 and longitudes 68 and 97. (Map 3.1 shows India’s location on
the Atlas.)
6 This section is based on information collated from the following websites and booksWebsites - http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/india/geological.htm, http://www.aneki.com/facts/India.html, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India, Books – Chandrashekhar, S (1967), Cassen, (1978), Dyson, Cassen and Visaria (2004)
29
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Home to the Indus Valley Civilization, a centre of important trade routes and vast
empires, India has long played a major role in human history. India has also been one of
the cradles of Human Civilizations. Hinduism, Sikhism, Buddhism and Jainism all have
their origins in India, while Islam and Christianity enjoy a strong cultural heritage having
arrived through trade even before foreign invasions. The Indus Valley civilization, one of
the oldest in the world, dates back at least 5,000 years. The Gangetic plain has constituted
India’s demographic heartland and continues to be so. Aryan tribes from the northwest
invaded about 1500 B.C.; their merger with the earlier inhabitants created the classical
Indian culture. Arab incursions started in the 8th century and Turkish in the 12th. These
were followed by European traders, beginning in the late 15th century. By the 19th
century, Britain had assumed political control of virtually all Indian lands. Nonviolent
resistance to British colonialism under Mohandas Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru led to
independence in 1947. The subcontinent was divided into the secular state of India and
the smaller Muslim state of Pakistan. A third war between the two countries in 1971
resulted in East Pakistan becoming the separate nation of Bangladesh. Fundamental
concerns in India include the ongoing dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir, massive
overpopulation, environmental degradation, extensive poverty, and ethnic and religious
strife, all this despite impressive gains in economic investment and output. India’s
geography, topography, history and culture have all played their part in shaping her
population.
30
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
3.2.2 - Administrative and Political Set-up 7
Upon gaining independence in 1947, India established herself as a ‘SOVEREIGN
SOCIALIST SECULAR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC8 and resolved to secure to all its
citizens: JUSTICE, social, economic and political; LIBERTY of thought, expression,
belief, faith and worship; EQUALITY of status and of opportunity; and to promote
among them all FRATERNITY thereby assuring the dignity of the individual and the
unity and integrity of the Nation’. These ideals of socialism, secularism and freedom in
thought, action and deed have been a bedrock of India’s policy decisions.
India is a Union of twenty-eight States and seven centrally administered Union
Territories. The States are Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar,
Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand,
Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram,
Nagaland, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh,
Uttaranchal and West Bengal. The centrally administered territories are Andaman and
Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Lakshadweep, Delhi
and Pondicherry. Delhi has its own legislature and head of the government, but it is still
not considered as a full-fledged state. Map 3.2 is a political map of India showing the
different States and Union territories. Thus, diversity of the states is maintained through
their independent governments, but unity of the country is maintained through the
central/union government.
7 This section is based upon the authors own previous study in Indian Law, Basu, D. (2001) and the official website of the Government of India http://goidirectory.nic.in/, 8 From Preamble to the Indian Constitution
31
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Map 3.2 – Political Map of IndiaSource - http://www.mapsofindia.com/
32
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
India has a parliamentary form of government based on universal adult franchise.
The executive authority is responsible to the elected representatives of the people in
Parliament for all its decisions and actions. Sovereignty rests ultimately with the
people.The President is the head of the executive branch of the government. However, it
is the Prime minister along with the cabinet of ministers who form the actual executive
and are responsible to the people. India has a bicameral legislature. The Rajya Sabha (the
Council of States) and the Lok Sabha (the Peoples Assembly) form the two houses of
parliament. The Judiciary consists of the Supreme Court and High Courts and other lower
courts. Independence of the judiciary from the executive and legislative branch of the
Government is maintained. From this it can be inferred that the policy decisions would be
bound by Bentham’s (1768) utilitarian principal of greatest good of the greatest number.
The Constitution of India represents the highest law of the country. Article 250 of
the Indian Constitution lays down the subject matter of laws to be made by the central
and the state governments. Issues of national importance fall into the Union List whereas
matters of local import fall in the State list. However, the issue of population control and
family planning falls in the Concurrent List. This means both the Centre and the State
governments can make laws on this subject. The Concurrent List includes all those areas
which are of importance in social and economic planning (includes other areas relating to
crime, family affairs etc.). Furthermore, Article 243G establishes the power of the State
government to devolve power upon the Panchayats (decentralized bodies of local
governance). Thus, family planning and population control can be further decentralized
33
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
to the local level9. The importance accorded to population and family planning is
manifest from its place in the Concurrent List.
3.2.3 – Development Planning in India 10
India launched its development initiative upon gaining independence in 1947. A
National Planning process was embarked upon. Democratic Socialism formed the
guiding principle then. The public sector was visualized as having a crucial role in
guiding and directing the economy towards growth, modernization, self-reliance and
social justice. A strategy of five year development plans was adopted with fifteen year
rolling plans. Annual plans were to provide the operationalisation of the five year plans.
The Planning Commission was set up by a Resolution of the Government of India in
March 1950 in pursuance of the declared objectives of the Government to promote a
rapid rise in the standard of living of the people by efficient exploitation of the resources
of the country, increasing production and offering opportunities to all for employment in
the service of the community. The Planning Commission was charged with the
responsibility of making assessment of all resources of the country, augmenting deficient
resources, formulating plans for the most effective and balanced utilization of resources
and determining priorities. The first Five-year Plan was launched in 1951 and two
subsequent five-year plans were formulated till 1965, when there was a break because of
the Indo-Pakistan Conflict. Two successive years of drought, devaluation of the currency,
9 From the authors previous studies in Indian Law and Basu, D. (2001).10 This section is based on a reading of the following - http://planningcommission.nic.in/, Kabra (1998), Yadav (2002)
34
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
a general rise in prices and erosion of resources disrupted the planning process and after
three Annual Plans between 1966 and 1969, the fourth Five-year plan was started in
1969. The Eighth Plan could not take off in 1990 due to turmoil of the political situation
at the Centre and the years 1990-91 and 1991-92 were treated as Annual Plans. The
Eighth Plan was finally launched in 1992 after the initiation of structural adjustment
policies.
For the first eight Plans the emphasis was on a growing public sector with
massive investments in basic and heavy industries as well as provision of social services.
In June 1991, a confluence of growing external debt, high fiscal deficits, and dwindling
foreign exchange reserves led India to the IMF and World Bank11. The banks structural
adjustment loan has changed the way India is governed and the nature of its policies.
With the launch of the Ninth Plan in 1997, the emphasis on the public sector has become
less pronounced and the current thinking on planning in the country, in general, is that it
should increasingly be of an indicative nature. The effects of this on population policy
will be examined in brief in chapter 4.
11 http://www.worldbank.org/oed/trade/docs/appendix_d7.pdf
35
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
3.3 - Population Planning in India
3.3.1 – A Brief History 12
Discussion about instituting a population policy started in India prior to
attainment of independence. A sub committee was established by the National Planning
Committee in 1938 by the Interim Government. Subsequently, India was the first country
to adopt Population planning after independence as part of its development efforts13
(Bawah; Akweongo; Simmons; Phillips, 1999). Way back in 1940, it was resolved by the
National Planning Committee that ‘in the interest of social economy, family happiness
and national planning, family planning and a limitation of children are essential and the
State should adopt a policy to encourage these14’.
The First of the Five Year Development Plans called for an explicit population
policy and considered family planning as a step towards improvement in health of
mothers and children. The strategy in the First Plan was to treat family planning as a part
of the health programme and provide 100% funds for it as a centrally sponsored
programme. In 1966, a separate Department of Family Planning was carved out in the
Ministry of Health in order to strengthen the population control programme.
A modified National Population Policy was announced in 1977 which viewed the
policy ‘as an integral part of education, health, maternal and child health etc. and stressed
the voluntary nature of the family planning programme’. The name of the programme
12 This section is based on information gathered from the official website of the population commission http://populationcommission.nic.in/hp.htm and readings from Chandrashekhar (1967), Donaldson (2002) and Dyson, Cassen and Visaria (2004), Aspalter (2002)13 http://populationcommission.nic.in/hp.htm, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/campaigns.html, 14 http://populationcommission.nic.in/hp.htm,
36
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
was changed from Family Planning to Family Welfare (retained till date). The
Government appointed a Working Group on Population Policy. Its report advocated a Net
Reproduction Rate of one (NRR=1) by the year 2000, which meant a Birth rate of 21 and
a Death Rate of 9 per thousand. This implied a population growth rate of 1.2 per cent per
year. This was considered as the threshold level for population stabilization. The
recommendation of the Working Group still remains the guiding number of the
population programme.
In 1983, the Government announced a National Health Policy which adopted the
recommendations of the Working Group on Population Policy as the long term
demographic goal of the country. The 1986 version of India's Population Policy viewed
family planning in a broader perspective of child survival, women's status and
employment, literacy and antipoverty efforts. The policy called for increasing age at
marriage, postponing the birth of the first child, increasing birth intervals and
concentrating on child survival.
In 1991, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare decided to devise innovative
strategies leading to the development of an Action Plan for revamping family welfare
programmes in India. The Plan emphasized the need to improve the quality of services
and to devise special area specific strategies.
In 1993, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare appointed an expert Group
under the Chairmanship of Dr. M.S. Swaminathan to draw up a Draft Population Policy
for consideration by Parliament. The report of this Group was submitted to the Ministry
in 1994. The Report related population growth to the basic needs, democratic
37
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
decentralization, gender issues and eco-system. These features were incorporated in the
‘Statement on National Population Policy’ prepared by the Ministry in 1996-1997. This
finally resulted in the New Population Policy which was launched in 2000. (Table 3.1
explains the milestones in India’s population policy experiments)
YearMilestone
1946 Bhore Committee Report
1952 Launching of the Family Planning Program
1976 Statement of the National Population Policy
1977 Policy Statement on Family Welfare Program
1983 National Health Policy emphasized the need for adopting the small family norm
1991 Committee on Population appointed by the National Development Council. The
focus was the nexus between population growth, environmental sustainability and
development
1993 An expert group under the leadership of Dr. Swaminathan asked to prepare a draft
of a new population policy.
1994 Report was prepared and helped produce broad political consensus
1997 The 50th Independence anniversary saw then Prime Minister Mr. Gujral promise
that a new population policy would soon be announced
1999 Group of Ministers finalized the draft policy and placed it before the Cabinet of
Ministers for ratification.
38
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Table 3.1 – Milestones in Population policy experiments
3.3.2 – Principal Characteristics of the Past Policies 15
From the above discussion it can be observed that population policies in India
seem to have the same rationales as the policies on the world stage (as outlined in chapter
2). Whether India has been a pioneer, follower or the policies have been a result of
interaction is unclear. Furthermore, what the above account of India’s experiments in
Population planning (from official records of the government of India) misses are the
finer nuances of the different policies adopted. Apart from the global factors,
implementation in the country gave rise to problems and resulted in changes. The
principal issues that have come up through experience shall now be investigated.
The first policies were a bit hesitant on the use of contraceptives. The rhythm
method, abstinence and other traditional methods were encouraged. The family planning
programme was first and foremost embraced by men, keen to contribute to India’s
development with a personal and patriotic fervor by adopting a small family norm.
Educated young men, post-independence, were highly motivated by leaders who believed
that India’s progress lay in curtailing its population size. It was in 1966 that the
‘extension approach’ took shape. This marked a shift from the earlier clinic based
approach. Slippages and frustrations in the achievement of the goals then led to special
drives and an added emphasize on sterilization. Furthermore, incentives and disincentives
15 This section is based on a reading of the following texts (and other readings) – McNicoll (1994), Visaria, P. (2002), Correa (1994), Neurath (1994),
39
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
became the language of population programmes. Programmes were characterized by
target setting and ground staff was expected to fulfill certain quotas. People lost their
individuality and turned into numbers who could be sterilized. Emergency was instituted
in the country by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Her son Sanjay Gandhi decided
to have an iron hand in matters of fertility, family planning and population control.
Horror stories of large scale forced sterilization camps have plagued population planning
efforts in India since (Furedi, 1997, Neurath, 1994, Correa, 1994, Donaldson, 2002). This
(amidst other high-handedness during the Emergency) ultimately led to the fall of the
government from power. The subsequent change in nomenclature from family planning
to family welfare was deliberate. After the fall of the earlier government due to the
exposure of its coercive practices in the family planning stream, future governments had
to be careful of the soil beneath their feet. Massive human rights violations during
vasectomies had marked the term family planning with a scandalous and negative
connotation. After 25 years, family planning became family welfare, but it was like old
wine in new bottle. The only difference being that women became the prime targets for
India’s population control programme facilitated by the merging of maternal and child
health with family welfare. Women who went for post-natal check ups or abortions, were
arm-twisted into accepting methods like IUDs, pills or sterilization, depending on the
number of children and surviving sons, by health workers, whose career and promotions
depended on the number of ‘cases’ they could mobilize for family planning. Target
setting and fulfilling quotas the other bane of Indian population programmes continued in
fashion. Thus women’s right to birth control got hijacked by the state’s agenda of
population control, now euphemistically called family welfare.
40
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The ICPD to which India is a signatory, has once again steered the logics of
Population Planning in India. The New Population Policy launched in 2000 though not a
mere replication of the ICPD Programme of Action, adopts the human rights language
and the focus is on reproductive rights and women. Prior to a look at this policy
document, a brief understanding of India’s demography and reasons for high fertility is
called for.
3.4 – India’s Population
3.4.1 - Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of India’s Population
India’s population is roughly 1,102,530,000 and increasing. Every minute 29
children are born in India. After China, India is the most populous country in the world. It
is estimated that soon India will be the most populous country in the world. India
accounts for 2.4% of the world’s landmass but 16% of the world’s population. In the past
India’s population grew slowly. It reached 211 million by the first decennial census in
1871. The next decades saw an alternative pattern of growth – relatively fast during one
decade, slow or negative during the next – largely due to the huge famines in the 1870s
and 1890s and the influenza epidemic of 1918. Despite these disasters the population
reached approximately 251 million by 1921. In each subsequent intercensal decade the
scale of the population addition rose, from about 28 million during 1921-31 to 180
million during 1991-2001. It has trebled since independence and seems inexorable
41
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
headed towards a total of atleast 1.5 billion by the middle of the twenty-first century
(Census of India, 2001, National Population Commission, Dyson, Cassen and Visaria,
2004). Chart 3.1 shows population growth in India from 1901 till 2001. It also shows the
rate of growth. It can be seen that growth started increasing gradually after the major dip
in 1921. It peaked somewhere in 1980 and since then a downward trend is beginning to
be observed.
.
Chart 3.1 – Population growth in India Source – Population Commission of India 2001
42
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The growth pattern has been different in the different states of India. Chart 3.2
shows the interstate differences in population growth. The northern states of Bihar,
Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are experiencing a much higher
growth rate than the southern states of Kerela, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Reasons for the
lower growth rate in these states have been analyzed by different demographers.
Advanced stages of development, higher female empowerment and stronger matriarchal
ties in the southern states and the location of the northern states in the classical high
fertility area of the Gangetic plain are some of the explanations forwarded by different
authors (Jeejabhoy and Sathar, 2001, Rahnam and Rao, 2004, Dyson, Cassen and Visaria,
2004). Map 3.3 shows the population density in the different states. Crude Birth Rate in
the different states is shown in map 3.4. In both these the interstate diversities are evident.
43
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Map 3.3 - Population density map showing interstate differences
Source - http://www.mapsofindia.com/
44
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Map 3.4 – Crude Birth Rate showing interstate differencesSource – Planning Commission of India 2001
45
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The urban and rural spread of population has been changing. Earlier the
population was predominantly in the rural areas. However, over the 20 th century the
population in urban agglomerates has seen a rise from 10% in 1901 to almost 30% in
2001 Further projections estimate that by 2050, 50% of the population will be in urban
areas (Census of India, 2001). Table 3.2 shows this increase in the urban areas.
Associated impacts shall be subsequently examined in chapter 4.
Population, urban population, rural population and degree of urbanization, India
1901-2001
Census
Year
Population Degree of urbanization
Total Urban Rural Percent urban Urban-rural ratio
1901 238,396,327 25,851,873 212,544,454 10.8 12
1911 252,093,390 25,941,633 226,151,757 10.3 12
1921 251,321,213 28,086,167 223,235,046 11.2 13
1931 278,977,238 33,455,989 245,521,249 12 14
1941 318,660,580 44,153,297 274,507,283 13.9 16
1951 361,088,090 62,443,934 298,644,156 17.3 21
1961 439,234,771 78,936,603 360,298,168 18 22
1971 548,159,652 109,113,977 439,045,675 19.9 25
1981 683,329,097 159,462,547 523,866,550 23.3 30
1991 846,387,888 217,551,812 628,836,076 25.7 35
2001 1,027,015,247 285,354,954 741,660,293 27.8 39
Table 3.2 – Rural: Urban Population and DistributionSource: 2001 Census of India
46
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Charts 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 show composition of the Indian population on the basis of
age and sex in 2000, 2025 and 2050 respectively. The issue of concern here is the low
male: female ratio. Reasons for this shall be examined in chapter 4. The changes in the
age structure shall be used to explain the concept of population momentum and its effect
in India.
Chart 3.3 – Population by age and sex for 2000Source – U.S. Census Bureau (IDB)
Chart 3.4 – Population by age and sex for 2025Source – U.S. Census Bureau (IDB)
47
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chart 3.5 – Population by age and sex for 2050Source – U.S. Census Bureau (IDB)
As was mentioned earlier religion, culture and tradition play an important role in
India. Several decisions are based on religious beliefs and they guide human behavior in
the Indian society (Heehs, 2002, Robinson, 2004). Table 3.3 shows the composition of the
population on the basis of religion.
Religions : (Excluding J & K) Population Percentage
Hindus 687,646,721 82.00%
Muslims 101,596,057 12.12%
Christians 19,640,284 2.34%
Sikhs 16,259,744 1.94%
Buddhists 6,387,500 0.76%
Jains 3,352,706 0.40%
Other Religions & Persuasions 3,269,355 0.39%
Religion Not Stated 415,569 0.05%
Total : 838,567,936 100.00%
Table 3.3 – Distribution by religion for 2001Source: 1991 Census of India
48
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Another important feature is the change in percentage and absolute number of
those under the poverty line. Table 3.4 shows the changing percentage and number of
people under the poverty line as given by the planning commission of India in 1995. It
can be observed that though the head count percentage has dropped in the rural and urban
areas from 54.9 % in 1973-74 to 36.0 % in 1993-94, the corresponding drop in absolute
numbers is almost negligible. The impact of income on fertility has been often debated
(as seen in chapter 2). Map 3.5 shows the interstate differences in gross domestic product.
India seems to be case in point for the original mooters of population policies who
expounded that population growth is a hindrance to economic development. Inspite of
much effort in development planning, the absolute number of her poor remains
undiminished.
Rural Rural Urban Urban Combined Combined
Year No. of
persons
(lakhs)
Percentage
of Persons
No. of
persons
(lakhs)
Percentage
of Persons
No. of
persons
Percentage
of persons
1973-
74
2613 56.4 600 49.0 3213 54.9
1977-
78
2642 53.1 646 45.2 3289 51.3
1983 2520 45.7 709 40.8 3229 44.5
1987-
88
2319 39.1 752 38.2 3070 38.9
1993-
94
2440 37.3 763 32.4 3204 36.0
Table 3.4 – Change in number and percentage (rural and urban) of people below the poverty line Source – Planning Commission of India
49
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Map 3.5 – Per Capita state domestic productSource – National Commission on Population
50
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The question of female literacy is considered by the ICPD Plan of Action as
central to determining female autonomy. Here too, wide interstate differences are
observed and noted below. Map 3.6 shows these differences. Chart 3.6 shows the impact
of female education on infant mortality and fertility.
Map 3.6 – Female literacySource – National Commission on Population
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chart 3.6 – Women’s education - Impact on Fertility and Infant MortalitySource – National Commission on Population
Chart 3.7 shows the estimated population growth between 1996 and 2016 in
different states. It can be seen that the large north Indian states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Orissa will account for the bulk of growth.
52
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chart 3.7 – Projected growth between 1996 and 2016 according to states Source - National Population Commission
3.5 - Conclusion
The above charts, maps and tables give a visual explanation of the spatial and
temporal characteristics of India’s population. Several other aspects such as crude death
rate, infant mortality, literacy, etc could have been included here. However, that would
make this document bulky without reason. The focus of the analysis shall be on the
features mentioned above – rural: urban distribution, interstate distribution, distribution
by religion and finally upon the poor. Having gained an insight into the nature of India’s
administrative and political systems, its development and specifically population
planning and India’s demographic profile, this study shall now proceed to examine some
53
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
of the chief reasons associated with high fertility in India, the New Population Policy and
its suitability or otherwise.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Chapter 4 – Analysis of India’s Population Policy
4.1 – Introduction
This chapter shall carry out an analysis of India’s Population Policy in the
aforesaid background. The relationship between Population growth and development
remains unestablished. The questions - Does slowing down of population growth leads to
economic growth? Is population growth an obstacle to growth? Does uncontrolled
population growth lead to poverty, resource scarcity, environmental degradation and
unrest? still remain contested. In the face of this debate, Indian policymakers and
development planners have sought to slow down and arrest population growth. Furedi
(1997) has aptly described the motives for government policies on population stating that,
‘Governmental support for population policies is based on the fact that in one sense there
are always too many people relative to the amount of revenues it has at its disposal.
(Furedi, 1997, p.50).’ The theoretical underpinnings of the policies may have changed
over time, but belief in the need to stabilize the population has remained central. The
search for a rational and humane solution to the population problem lies at the heart of
population policies and politics. A point to be noted here is that the controversy between
direct and indirect means of fertility control, blocks out the fundamental agreement
between the two camps that population control is essential for development (Furedi,
1997). India’s political and administrative set-up, past policies and spatial and temporal
characteristics provide a clue as to the ways forward for its population policy. This
55
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
chapter shall examine the reasons for high fertility in India. It will look at key features of
the New Population Policy. Issues arising out of implementation shall be discussed.
Emerging matters will be analyzed.
4.2 – Factors responsible for high Fertility
Reasons for high fertility in India will be examined in this section. The nature of
these reasons vary from being economic, socio-cultural and religious. They are
interlinked and work to reinforce each other. Blake (1972) explains that in a general
sense, the institutional structure of every society define and control what it is that
individual couples get out of having children – the rewards or utilities for having a family
– and how much couples must sacrifice to have them – the costs. He assigns the
difference between costs and utilities which differ across societies as the determining
factor in decisions of individual couples as to the number of their children. It should be
noted here that the reasons for high fertility given below are all contested by different
authors. However, lack of discursive space prohibits giving a deeper insight into the
different relations between each specific reason and its impact on high fertility.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
4.2.1 - Economic Reasons
Empirical studies have drawn links between rural settings, children working as
laborers from early ages and thereby contributing to family income and high fertility rates
(Mamdani, 1972). Thus, children have meant more hands to work on the land. Children
provide security to parents in old age (Davis, 1955, Mamdani, 1972, World Bank, 1985,
Satia et. al. 1993, Misra, Roy and Retheford, 2004)). However, this proposition is not
accepted by all. Dharmalinga (1994) opines that though old age security has played a role
in determining fertility, social and economic changes have resulted in sons not always
supporting their parents. Furthermore, the poor have come to realize that not only their
sons cannot be depended on because attitudes of their sons have changed but also because
it is most likely that their sons will also live in abject poverty.
4.2.2 - High Infant Mortality
One of the reasons for high birth rate is the high infant mortality rate. When
probability of child survival is low, parents may not be motivated by the small family
norm. As an insurance to have atleast some children surviving parents have more children
(World Bank, 1985, Aarsen, 2005). Nutritional deficiency and lack of immunization are
pinned down as the reasons of high infant mortality (World Bank, 1985, Mohanty, 2003.)
57
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
4.2.3 - Population Momentum
The concept of population momentum resulting in continued population growth
even after a fall in total fertility rate has been explained by several authors such as Sen
and Iyer, (2002), Visaria, (2002) and W.B. (1985). India’s fertility rate has fallen from
almost 6 in 1950 to 2.9 in 2001. This drop is significant. However, India’s population
will continue to grow as more and more people who were born earlier now enter into the
reproductive age group. (This can also be observed from charts 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5 in chapter
3) Further increasing life expectancy also adds to the growing population as more people
live longer. Table 4.1 shows certain important demographic indicators for India.
Demographic Indicators 2005 2025
Births per 1,000 population 24 17
Deaths per 1,000 population 7 5
Rate of natural increase (percent) 1.7 1.2
Annual rate of growth (percent) 1.7 1.2
Life expectancy at birth (years) 67.2 77.8
Infant deaths per 1,000 live birth 40 10
Total fertility rate (per woman) 2.9 2.2
Table 4.1 - Demographic Indicators
Source- U.S. Census (IDB)
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
4.2.4 - Availability and Knowledge of Family Planning Methods
Chart 4.1 - Effective Couple Protection rate and Birth Rate
Source – National Commission on Population
Chart 4.2 – Unmet need for Family Planning Methods
Source – National Commission on Population
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The above two charts show that though effective couple protection rate has risen
in the country from around 10 % in 1970 to almost 50% in 1998. However, unmet need
for contraception is still existent, especially in the four northern states of high population
growth and high fertility. Total unmet needs for contraception are approximately 16.1%
of which 8.3% is for reversible means and 7.8% is for permanent methods (Singh, Verma
and Roy, 2004).
4.2.5 - Socio-Cultural and Religious Reasons
Several authors have examined the relation between fertility patterns and socio-
cultural factors. Generally, a more traditional society such as India is associated with high
fertility. Davis (1955) is of the opinion that subordination and incorporation of the
nuclear family by wider kinship groups which is common in agrarian and underdeveloped
societies, leads to consequences which are conducive to abundant reproduction. The
economic cost of childrearing is lowered, child care does not impinge as much on the
parents time, grooms are not required to be financially independent and brides are
generally in the late teens or early twenties thus increasing ultimate fertility, marriage is
viewed as a religious and moral obligation, young wives are motivated to have offsprings
early as to rise in status in the family. Illiteracy and poverty characteristics are also linked
to fertility rates. (Caldwell, 1980, W.B. 1985, Aspalter, 2002, Mazumdar, 2005,
Bhattacharya, 2006 )
60
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
In India, fertility differentials by religion are strong (Mistry, 1999, Mukherjee,
2002, McQuillan 2004). Fertility among Muslims as well as growth rates are much higher
than as compared to Hindus and especially other minority groups. In the use of
contraceptives a higher prevalence rates (43%) is observed in the minority groups of
(Jains, Buddhists, Sikhs and Christians) and the lowest use (28%) is found among the
Muslims. (Adlakha, A., 1997). Widespread son preference is evident in Indian society.
Child sex ratios show a large difference between Hindus and Muslims. Strong son
preference is more dominant among Hindus. A number of economic, social, and religious
reasons, including financial support, old age security, property inheritance dowry, family
lineage, prestige and power, birth and death rituals, and beliefs about religious duties and
salvations account for this. Son preference has been associated with sex selective
abortions and even female infanticide16 (Vlassoff, C. 1991, Bhagat and Praharaj, 2002,
Misra, Roy and Retheford, 2004). Another marked difference is the choice of
contraception. Muslims prefer the use of spacing and temporary methods17.
16 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1939982.cms - This article dated 30th August 2006, from The Times of India is about a man dieing upon hearing that he had borne a bay girl. $ articles relating to bias against women were reported on the same day.17 http://www.religiousconsultation.org/islam_contraception_abortion_in_SacredChoices.htmhttp://www.islamonline.com/cgi-bin/news_service/spot_full_story.asp?service_id=833Research done on Islamic Law on family Planning by this author revealed the following position of Islam on Family Planning and Contraception. Research was based on the above websites and discussions with friends of the Islamic faith.a. Permanent contraception (sterilization) is prohibited in Islam as it is synonymous to castration which is prohibited by Allah.b. Temporary contraception is acceptable as azl is permissiblec. A man has a responsibility to ensure the well being of his wife and too many births in a short time affects the health of the wife negatively therefore temporary contraception can be used to ensure the wife’s wellbeing d. Further, permanent contraception in the face of disease is acceptable.e. Prolific behavior (producing more children) is considered to be a recommended (mandub) act. However, not doing it does not call for punishment in this life or on the day of judgment as it is not undesirable or forbidden (makruh or haram)
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
4.2.6 - Status of Female
The extent of female individuality, labor force participation, educational level,
decision making and bargaining power in the family, control over income, availability of
easy transport and communication facilities all go towards determining female status
(Bhattacharya, 2006, Visaria and Ramachandran, 2002, Klasen, 2002). Gender
stratification appears to influence the relative say of the husband’s say whether or not
contraception should be used (Oppenheim, 2000). The sex based abortions mentioned
earlier are telling as to the bias against females in the Indian society.
Having explored some of the different reasons which account for high fertility in
India, this study shall now examine the key features of the NPP 2000.
4.3 - Key Features of the New Population Policy
Indian population policies in the past as well as the current one have been largely
influenced by the dominant world paradigm. The principal themes of the ICPD Plan of
Action can be seen in the NPP. Female empowerment and Reproductive rights form the
cornerstones of the policy. Furthermore, the new liberal, indicative form of planning as
dictated by neo-liberalism and adopted n the 9th five year plan commencing from 1997 is
also evident in the document.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
4.3.1 - Objective and aims
The NPP states its objective as follows:
‘The immediate objective of the NPP 2000 is to address the unmet needs for
contraception, health care infrastructure, and health personnel, and to provide
integrated service delivery for basic and reproductive and child health care. The medium
term objective is to bring the TFR to replacement levels by 2010, through vigorous
implementation of inter-sectoral operational strategies. The long-term objective is to
achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of
sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection.’
It lays down the themes which are central to its understanding. These come in the form of
aims within the policy document and can be stated as follows
to address the unmet need for basic and reproductive and child health services,
make school education upto age 14 free and compulsory,
reduce infant mortality rate to below 30 per 1000,
promote delayed age of marriage for girls
achieve universal access to information/counseling, and services for fertility,
regulation and contraception with a wide basket of choices
promote the small family norm to achieve replacement levels of TFR
From a reading of the above, it becomes obvious that the focus continues to be on fertility
reduction. Inspite of past tragedies experienced in target oriented policies, the NPP
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
continues to set an overarching target. Though explicit targets are not mentioned, the long
term target setting is telling. Quadeer (2002) finds that thought the preamble to the NPP
says it is target free, the policy is riddled as it states the aim of attaining replacement
fertility level by 2010 and a stable population by 2045. The policy emanates from the
central government and sub policies are set at the state level. The state policies can be
tempted to set targets and nothing will be learnt from the past experiences. Already,
policies in some states are going down that path (Baxi, 2002). Though Appendix I to the
NPP contains operational strategies for the above stated Action Plan they are of little
importance as the different states are not bound to follow them. States conjure their own
policies either based on the NPP or independent from it.
4.3.2 - Reasons for high fertility as recognized by the NPP and strategies
The NPP recognizes the following as reasons for high fertility in India
1. Population Momentum
2. Unmet needs for contraception
3. High wanted fertility due to high infant mortality
4. Early age of marriage of girls
The earlier analysis showed that the reasons recognized by the NPP are not the only
reasons for high fertility. However, high infant mortality, poverty and economic concerns
of old persons are noted implicitly elsewhere within the policy.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
For attaining its stated objectives, the NPP lays down 12 strategic themes
1. Decentralisated Planning and Programme Implementation
2. Convergence of Service Delivery at Village Levels
3. Empowering women for Improved Health and Nutrition
4. Child Health and Survival
5. Meeting the Unmet Needs for Family Welfare Services
6. Underserved Populations
a. Urban slums
b. Tribal communities, hill area populations and displaced and migrant
populations
c. Adolescents
d. Increased participation of men in planned parenthood
7. Diverse Health Care Providers
8. Collaboration with and commitments from Non-Government organizations and
Private Sector
9. Mainstreaming Indian Systems of Medicine and Homeopathy
10. Contraceptive Technology and Research on Reproductive and Child health
11. Providing for the Older Population
12. Information, Education and Communication
On a precursory glance the strategies adopted by the policy give a holistic picture.
Issues of child health, old age security, reproductive heath, decentralization, women’s
65
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
empowerment, collaboration with NGOs and meeting unmeet contraceptive demand all
lead back to the stated aim of population stabilization.
In the Conclusion the policy states, ‘in the new millennia, nations are being judged by
the well-being of their people…’ showing its concern more with how it is judged by other
nations than a primary concern for its own people. Furthermore, this is symptomatic of
the chances that the policy is a façade for the world audience while the situation on the
ground continues unchanged or worsens.
4.3.3 - Themes adopted for fertility control in the New Population Policy
Some of the central themes and the logic behind them will be examined in this
section. Criticisms to the policy from different factions are also outlined. Visaria (2002)
finds that all the common prescriptions to promote the use of spacing methods, late
marriage, higher female literacy and better status of women, and safe abortions as well as
safe deliveries are incorporated in the policy document. When state finances are already
overstretched, one does not really know about the scope for supplementing the central
allocations for population stabilization.
Decentralization is a positive aspect of this policy as it provides a less potentially
sensitive route for governments would be interventions seeking change in fertility
through community pressures and local governments (World Bank, 1985). It provides an
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
opportunity for local level participation which often leads to empowerment at the local
level. However, it potentially is a tool for neglecting responsibility. Often times
decentralisation of implementation without adequate discretionary decision making
powers or financial devolution occur which lead to inefficiency and worsen situations.
Decentralisation is often times linked with corruption and elite capture at local level
(Fisman and Gatti, 2000, Oedorongo, 2003, Ahmad, Khemami and Shah, 2005).
From a policy perspective, provision of contraceptives is the most direct form of
intervention. Therefore, it continues to warrant continuous study. Cohen (2000) using
micro-level data attempts to link socioeconomic characteristics of women accepting
contraception with various aspects of family planning programmes in a country in sub-
Saharan Africa. The influence of four dimensions of family planning effort on
contraceptive use are assessed: mass media exposure (i.e. promoting family planning
measures through print and radio messages), increasing contraceptive choice, improving
the accessibility of contraceptive services, and improving quality of services. Results
indicated that all four efforts contributed to the use of contraceptives, though their
relative influence varied substantially across different segments of the population. The
analysis strongly suggests that mass media messages have a powerful effect on modern
contraceptive use (influencing women’s motivation to limit fertility and increase their
knowledge abut the availability of supplies). However, Donaldson (2002) points out that
inclusion of measures such as incentives for poor women who marry after the age of 18,
health insurance for those who get sterilizes after the second child, and cash incentives
for female children (to reduce female infanticide) has promoted the question as to
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
resurgence of the target based approach (Donaldson, 2002). Singh, Verma and Roy
(2004) examine the barriers to and opportunities for informed choice and categorize the
factors to include a range of methods, access to methods and access to information about
the methods. They consider the growth of the media in India as a powerful vehicle for
social change. In the state of Maharashtra they found, lack of adequate manpower, poor
attendance of staff, lack of cleanliness, space, infrastructure, unhygienic equipment, lack
of and poor quality of supplies, inadequacy of counselors’ knowledge, inefficient
logistics and supply mechanisms, insufficient in service training were some of the
problems in implementation. It can be used to effectively initiate and sustain behavior
change required to enhance contraceptive use. Therefore the scope of service provision is
good, and meeting the unmet needs is a vital and direct way of stabilizing population.
However, India’s past policies provide a learning ground for this. Coercion and target
setting have resulted in callousness and backlash from the society. Every effort needs to
be made to ensure that service provision is of good quality, for the benefit of the users
and not coercive. The media can play a determining role in raising the use of
contraception. This along with service delivery can be powerful tool for reducing fertility
levels.
The advent of the International Conference on Population and Development in
Cairo prompted the international community to focus on the role of women's human
rights in the context of population policy. In the formulation and implementation of
population policies, both on national and local levels, women are entitled to dignity,
autonomy, and access to competent health care. These may collectively be termed
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
reproductive rights, and reproductive rights are human rights, too. However, international
dialogue on population policy has generally failed to address adequately the rights and
needs of individual women. To make population policies fully supportive of women's
rights, countries must modify restrictive national laws, enforce laws that ensure women's
rights, and reassess policies of non-ratification of international treaties that bear on
women and reproductive rights. (Pine, R., 1994). In India, Sarkar and Ramanathan (2002)
have questioned different laws meant to empower women but having a paradoxical effect
such as the Maternity Benefit Act, the Child Marriage Restraint Act, the Prenatal
Diagnostic Techniques Act. These laws though enacted with the altruistic aims of
empowerment of women have assumed distorted natures and are serving effectively as
population control strategies with an onus on women. The pragmatism of population
control has permitted the reprioritizing of many of law’s concerns. The burden rests
inordinately on women, in particular the impoverished to whom distributive justice could
make a positive difference. The deprioritized concerns of the health and safety of
laboring women or of their participation in political power, for instance, have had to
move over and make place for (dis)incentive regimes in law, revealing a disjunction
between the original purpose of legislation and the import of its altered text. Furthermore,
Article 44 of the Constitution has mandated the formation of a Uniform Civil Code which
would guarantee all women the same rights across different religions with respect to
marriage, divorce, maintenance and other family matters. However, the past sixty years
has still not seen the formation of such a code and women have varied and unequal rights
in different religions in India18. This shows that laws in India, though on paper appear to
conform to international conventions, are not conducive or supportive of women’s
18 From the authors previous study in India Law
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
reproductive and hum rights. Bernstein (2005) observes that differentials in the exercise
of rights to sexual and reproductive health based on income and residence are among the
most pronounced of any regularly measured health-related development indicators. Poor
and rural populations are least likely to give birth under safe conditions, to translate their
preferences to delay or avoid pregnancies into safe and effective action, more likely to
give birth at very early and late ages when risks are higher, and more susceptible to
sexually transmitted diseases and unwanted or transactional sex.
The issues of reproductive and sexual rights which stem from human rights have
assumed a central role in population debated since the Cairo conference. This author
would like to make a point on this. Human rights and reproductive right emphasize the
rights of women and the rights of couples. However what is generally absent from the
human rights dialogue is concern for human rights of the yet-to-be born child/ren. Where
parents are poor and unable to raise their children in an environment suitable to the
child’s development, where children starve, sleep in the streets, work till they can no
more, where education is not available due to financial constraints and where childhood
is not an option, in such situations it the human rights of the future child that are being
violated. More than anything these rights need to be restored. This has almost been given
a negative connotation by the concept popularly known as responsible parenthood.
4.4 - What the New Population Policy is lacking?
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
The study of the different concerns and matters involved have shown an
interlinkage of different issues. The focus of the policies has remained almost exclusively
on females. Demographics in examined in chapter 3 show that population stabilization in
the different states is progressing at different paces. Furthermore, religion plays an
important role in determining fertility outcomes. Also, growing population has resulted in
increased rural to urban migration. This has caused certain strains in the urban areas. The
NPP misses out on these issues. An inherent problem is found within the administrative
and political set up. These issues will now be investigated briefly.
4.4.1 - Focus on females – need to involve males
The past ghosts of policies on men and the horrors of forced sterilizations in
1970’s seem not to leave Indian population policy. Since that time, the government
policy has exclusively targeted women. Policy after policy, the focus has turned to
women and they are the ones with the onus of managing fertility Furthermore, inspite of
huge investments, the programme fails to meet women’s needs for family planning
(Correa, 1994). Dr. Mohan Rao (1997) attempts through his discussion on the issue of
quinaerine sterilization to throw light on the web of factors which congeal into a certain
kind of intervention into women's lives and question the scientific, or in public health
terms, the epidemiological basis of this understanding. Patterns of use of contraceptives
reveal that female sterilization is the predominant method of contraception. Involvement
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
of men in awareness of population issues as well shifting of some of the onus for family
planning is an urgent need of the day if women’s empowerment movements are to have
any visible effect.
4.4.2 - Regional disparities
A Population policy is generally conceived at the national level. However, in a
large country like India with conspicuous spatial variations, a case has often been made
for region or state specific policies and some state governments have recently announced
population policies. But there are other dimensions of diversity, especially ethnicity,
religion and caste. On account of social, cultural and historical factors, the aspirations of
groups, and hence immediate objectives, may differ, if not the ultimate goals. Besides,
strategies appropriate for one group may not be so for another, even when the objectives
are the same. Population stabilization in India depends largely on population stabilization
in the four states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (known in
Indian demographic circles as the BIMARU states - BIMARU also means ill in Hindi)
(Mohanty, 2003). It was observed in chapter 3 that large differences occur in the different
states. It appears that different states are on different stages of the fertility transition
(Mistry, 1999). While a national policy for a country as large as India may provide
problems of managing, decentralization has its own set of flaws. Comprehensives state
policies within the National framework maybe the best option. In the present case, the
state policies are working almost independently of the national framework. The National
72
Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Commission on Population could have an important role as co-coordinator and regulator
of state efforts.
4.4.3 - Religious Groups
Religion has a significant relevance in the demographic study of socio-economic
groups. Religion prescribes a code of life, refers to a system of beliefs, attitudes and
practices which individuals share in groups, and through this orientation towards life and
death, religion is supposed to affect one's fertility behavior. As observed earlier, religion
plays a significant role in India. Religion as a factor does not find place in the NPP 2000
document. Recognition of religious differentials in a policy document is presumably
considered politically incorrect. The relatively high fertility among Muslims has been a
touchy issue for some time. An important issue that has emerged out of different studies
the high unmet need for contraception among Muslims. Possibly, there are reservations
about specific methods, particularly sterilization; the prevalence of reversible methods is
not lower among Muslims compared to the general population. If the basket of choice
was widened as promised in the NPP, the contraceptive needs of Muslims could also be
met to a larger extent. . A strong need of information, education and communication
program is felt (Mukherjee, 2002, Bhagat and Praharaj 2002, Mistry, 1999).
However, meeting the needs of a religious group is often debated as it is loaded
politically. The Indian demographic Census had the Census of Britain as its genesis.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
However, while economic divisions formed the central themes in Britain, its Indian
counterpart contained divisions on the basis of religions. This is considered by some as a
propagation of the famous ‘divide and rule’ strategy of Imperialist Britain. Underlying
communal tension has been a feature in India since the partition of the country on
religious grounds. Though Bhagat and Praharj (2005), accept that religion plays a role in
determining fertility; they are of the view that socio-economic factors have a more
significant impact. Studies on Hindu-Muslim differentials ignore socio-economic,
political and historical contexts and focus on the character of Muslim religion. Wide
variations exist inter- country as well as between countries. Muslims in the more
developed states of Kerela and Karnataka show a lower fertility rate than their counter
parts in the less developed states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Muslim countries
of Iran, and Bangladesh have a lower fertility than Hindus. All this goes to prove that not
only religion but other socio-economic factors play a dominant role in determining
fertility. Iyer (2002) argues that religious differentials in fertility could be the result of
discrimination of access to healthcare and family planning services between different
religious groups. Mistry (1999) also argues in the same vein for overall socio-economic
development of Muslims.
Sex selective abortions have taken a deep root in 1990’s. It is recognized to be a
social problem linked to technological change. This tendency is largely linked to the
Hindus. Efforts are made in the direction of reducing its incurrence. Tribal and other
minor communities are also addressed in the policy.
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Population Policies and Development: A Case Study of India
Therefore, this author questions the reluctance to address the specific needs on
the basis of religion. Though India is a declared secular nation (as observed in chapter 3),
meeting the needs of different religions is part of article 14. Therefore, meeting the needs
of the Muslim community through information, communication, education, making
services which are suitable to their needs available and overall socioeconomic upliftment
should be taken up. Furthermore, the issue of sex selective abortion by the Hindu
community also needs to be addressed.
4.4.4 - Inherent Problem with the Political set – up leading to implementation
problems
This issue deals with the political and administrative set up as well as role of the
state policies. Nowhere does the NPP state who, and in what manner, and to what social
effect, are to be held responsible, in politics and administration, for non-performance or
malfeascence. No enforceable obligations whatsoever attach to the top echelon policy as
well as administrative actors. In contrast, ‘lesser’ levels of governance, the panchayti raj
institutions (decentralized bodies at the local level), remain subject to depletion of
meager resources for failure to implement the targets (Baxi, 2001).
Aspalter assigns India’s relative backward level of social development to not only
social and economic factors but highlights the impact of the political system. He states
that, ‘ …this was always and still is, the key issue that needs to be addressed in Indian
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politics – the duality between central policy formulation at national government level and
the often absent or limited support of state policymakers and administrators. (Aspalter,
2002, p. 59)’. He describes the distribution of powers between the state and central
government as being too complex and essentially problematic. Financial and
man/womanpower capabilities of the governmental institutions, as well as their morals
are insufficient to complete the task of changing the reproductive habit of a highly
illiterate population which for the most part is living in the countryside does not speak a
universal language, or read a universal script, who often fight religious and political
battles. The presence of 1000’s of political parties and no single ideology running the
country further aggravates this situation.
Singh, Verma and Roy’s (2004) examination of the population policy in the state
of Maharashtra shows that the NPP which is the broader guiding light, is target free, the
policy at the state level is heavily focused on targets and furthermore on incentives and
disincentives. The focus remains almost exclusively on permanent methods and spacing
and temporary methods do not receive their due attention. Emphasis on education and
literacy is inadequate and the focus is on raising the age of marriage for women. A dismal
picture is painted of rural women as being illiterate, getting married early, having limited
access to media and having very little decision making power. Their findings showed that
neither any mechanisms nor any specific structures existed to ensure expanded and
informed choice the information, education and communication strategy has not received
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sufficient budget, motivation or other infrastructural support. Thus, the holistic picture
that the NPP aims at does not seem to be working at the state level.
4.4.5 - Urbanization and other Management Problems
In chapter 3, it was noted that population growth has resulted in increased and
unprecedented migration to the urban areas. This has led to the
proliferation of slums, which are, in a way, a
makeshift solution to a complex housing problem. India is
witnessing an ever-increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and services.
Studies reveal that currently there exists a housing shortage of approximately 20
million units, half of which is urban and around 70 per cent of that belongs to
the low-income segment. With the population set to cross 1.3 billion by 2020
and the urban population set to grow by 85 million over the next 10 years. An
ASSOCHAM paper on real estate development has estimated that the demand for
dwelling units will grow to 90 million by 2020, which would require a minimum
investment of $890 billion (Parekh, 2006). Accelerated rapid urbanization and managing
the megacities that result will strain the resources. This trend of urbanization will change
the labour supply and demand for certain infrastructure and services (Bhagat, 2002).
However, old cities do not have to be overpopulated before new cities come up. Anas and
Xiong (2005) show how the development of cities on the fringes of old cities without
overpopulation and the consequent problems occurring in the old cities can be brought
about. These new cities can develop without planning efforts through indigenous growth
and creation of specialized centers of servicing, industry etc. Thus high population
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growth, large rural to urban migration and inadequate infrastructure in urban areas exert
pressures on the environment threatening the health and well being of the residents.
Inadequate provision of infrastructure and services to meet the growth to meet the need
urban populations has resulted in inefficient spatial development of urban centers,
proliferation of squatter settlements and slums inadequate basic amenities including
potable water, sanitation and waste disposal (Mohanty, 2003, Boadi, Kuitunen, Raheem
and Hanninen, 2005, Alexandratos, 2005, Owens and Sarte, 2004). Thus, rapid urban
growth has caused serious administrative and management difficulties. Urban life
requires a complicated set of services – housing, traffic, sewerage, water and so on – that
cannot be scaled up as quickly as population growth. Challenges include providing for
housing, roads, sewers, schools and the myriad requirements of a population spilling into
formerly rural areas. Incumbent residents complain that growth leads to more congestion.
4.5 - Conclusion
This chapter examined the reasons associated with high fertility in India.
Economic, religious, socio cultural and other reasons were explained. Thereafter an
examination of the NPP policy document revealed the chief objectives, strategic themes
of the NPP. An insight of the logics of the NPP was gained through an exploration of its
key features and themes. Furthermore, emergent issues of addressing regional disparity,
religious groups, rapid urbanization and inherent problems of the political structure were
analysed.
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Chapter 5 - Conclusion and Discussion
Population policies have played a central role in development. The population of
the world is estimated to reach 9 billion by 2050. Discourses in Population have been
plentiful. They continue maintaining their central position due to their importance in
determining the well-being of their people and especially for planning efforts of
governments. The case of India is especially interesting due to projections of it becoming
the most populous nation in the near future - this inspite of population planning efforts
spanning over six decades now. Thus the objectives of this study were established to
understand population and its interlinkages with development. Further an understanding
of India’s population policies was sought. This was to be achieved through a cross
framework analysis, essentially by maintaining a multi sectoral approach.
Chapter 2 examined the different discourses in development and population. No
clear link was found between population growth and development. However, views that
population growth hindering economic growth abounded from the 1950’s. Different
nexus between population, development, environment and women’s empowerment were
established at different times in the past century. The rationales, logics and professed
aims of population policies are found to be continually evolving. However, curbing the
rapid population growth, stabilising it, providing family planning services and educating
the masses about its effects have remained the underlying themes running through the
fabric of population programmes and policies. This is inspite of no established link
between population and development.
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Chapter 3 set out the background to the case study of India. It explored India’s
administrative and political set up. The administrative division of the country into states
and union territories was found to have an effect on the way policies were implemented.
The Indian Constitution is the guiding light on Indian laws and policies. On its basis it
was established that people form the central component of India’s development planning.
Planning initiatives in India have played a very strong role in determining her policies.
Qualities of secularity and sovereignty are enshrined in the Constitution. Policy archives
within the sphere of population planning were dug up to discover setbacks and failures
from the past. It was found that population stabilisation has been considered central to
India’s progress by her development planners. Strong government involvement with a
focus of targets has been a characteristic of Indian family planning efforts. This proving
ineffective, the NPP has shifted to a holistic approach. The study then went on to
examine India’s demographic features. Vast inter state differences were noted. Further, a
growing pace of urbanisation was observed. Age and Sex trends were established. The
gross domestic output in different states was examined. Finally women’s literacy figures
were examined.
Chapter 4 revealed the chief reasons for high fertility in India. Economic reasons,
socio cultural reasons, female status, high infant mortality and population momentum
were some of the reasons that were explored. The objectives and strategies adopted by
the NPP were scrutinized. The policy was found to be a holistic one however, some of the
reasons associated with high fertility were found to be ignored. Issues emerging out of
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population growth such as regional disparity and urbanisation are not recognised or
addressed. The policy does not take into account differences on religious grounds.
Furthermore, differences in states could be linked to the political and administrative
system. All in all, though the NPP appears to have laudable motives and well thought out
strategic themes, it lacks focus on important emerging issues. Success will depend on
effective implementation. The mechanisms of the state, their drive and capacity will play
a central role. There remains scope within the policy to include important issues.
The issues that come up for discussion from the preceding analysis can be
summed up as follows. Decentralization though a positive aspect of the NPP, it can have
potentially negative effects of elite capture, neglect of responsibility, inefficiency and
corruption. Issues of implementation have remained largely unresolved. The use of media
to raise contraceptive use combined with efficient service delivery (be it by the state or
the market, or a mix of both to meet different demands) can be a powerful tool for
reducing fertility levels. The state policies need to be made within the National
framework and not independent of it. At present the NPP is almost defunct except as an
image builder. Stress needs to be on the four highly populous states of the north (which
lie in the Gangetic plain – the origin of Indian civilization). Female empowerment
legislations enacted with altruistic motives need to serve their true purposes and not be
hijacked by the aims of population control. Furthermore, though the sexual and
reproductive rights of human beings are essential, recognition of the rights of the still to
be born children should be made. There is an urgent need for the onus of family planning
to be shared by men if female empowerment movements are to be effective. Meeting the
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needs of different religious groups can be done through widening the basket of choice of
contraceptives and awareness of idiosyncrasies of different religious groups. Studies of
the Muslim population revealed an overall lower socioeconomic progress. This too needs
to be addressed. The lack of coordination and the essentially complex and problematic
distribution of powers and functions between the central and state governments needs
urgent rectification. The significant growth in population accompanied by huge rural to
urban migration and insufficient infrastructure in urban areas has aggravated housing and
service delivery in urban areas. All of these issues need to be recognised, discussed and
addressed.
A birds eye view of the situation shows that inspite of debates about the links
between population and development Indian development policymakers have considered
it central to India’s progress. It is the issues of how to stabilise population growth that
have plagued their minds. Questions about direct and indirect means of achieving this
ultimate goal of population stabilisation at the national level has lead to the ignorance of
the fundamental debate about population and its interlinkages to development. Different
policies have been experimented through its history. The NPP has emerged as a result of
the past policies and world paradigm as reflected by the ICPD Plan of Action. Adoption
of the neo liberal agenda by the Indian government has also led to a shift in strategy from
a largely public sector driven policy to one which is more holistic and driven by different
socioeconomic and cultural factors. The policy is clear in what it wants to achieve. The
debate essentially is how? In this situation the alternatives appear many and varied but
are seen to be interlinked.
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The NPP like the past policies draws upon different schools of thought and
understanding about what will bring the desired results. What remains vital is
commitment to the objectives and implementation of the policy in its true spirit.
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