population projections shaun mclaughlin, cso presentation to hasig seminar 2 december 2008
TRANSCRIPT
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Population Projections
Shaun McLaughlin, CSOPresentation to HASIG seminar2 December 2008
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Layout of presentation
Introduction to projection methodologyAssumptions
Expert Group Fertility, Mortality, Migration
Projection process illustrationResults – Republic of IrelandLabour Force projections
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Introduction
Projections in a 5-yearly cycle to coincide with Census
(every 2 years for NI)State projections – 35 year period
Labour Force projections for stateRegional projections – 20 years
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Population Projections
Methodology
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Projection method
2006 Population
+ Births - Deaths
+ Net Migration
“Age on Population”
= 2007 Projected Population
Cohort component method
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Projection method
Census population used as starting point Single year of age and sex
Assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration
Several different scenarios based on different assumptions
Expert group to agree assumptions
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Projection method
State assumptions include Labour Force projections for 15 year span
Followed by regional projections Breakdown of state figures Additional assumptions
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Population Projections
Assumptions
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Assumptions
Fertility rateMortality rateMigration flows
2006 Population + Births - Deaths + Net Migration “Age on Population” = 2007 Projected Population
This method… …requires this information:
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Assumptions
Expert Group on Population projections CSO personnel
CensusVital StatisticsQuarterly National Household Survey
(Migration)
Government Departments Academics
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Expert Group
2 or 3 meeting of Group to agree projections
1st meeting Agree intial assumptions CSO produce projections based on these
2nd meeting Review initial results Amend assumptions, meet again if needed
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Fertility
Historic picture
Falling trends here and abroad
Fertility postponement
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Births, 1960-2006 - RoI
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Bir
ths
(th
ou
san
ds)
Year
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20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
Num
ber
of B
irth
s R
egis
tere
d
Year
Number of Births Registered (1960 to 2006)
Northern Ireland equivalent
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Fertility assumptions
F1: TFR to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9 for the lifetime of the projections
F2: TFR to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter
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Mortality assumptions
Mortality rates are assumed to decrease which will result in gains in life expectancy at birth from: 76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 for
males 81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041 for
females
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Migration assumptions
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Intercensal period
Th
ou
san
ds
Natural increase
Population change
Net migration
Population change components
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Migration assumptions
Migration is main driver of population change in Republic of Ireland
Most unpredictable factor Depends on many factors Economic / employment situation EU enlargement Too many influences to model
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Migration for recent years
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Year
Th
ou
san
ds Emigrants
Immigrants
Net migration
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Migration assumptions
Highly unpredictable Not trying to forecast economy etc.
2 Main assumptions: M1: Continued high in-migration M2: More moderate migration
3rd Zero-migration assumption Useful to gauge effect of migration
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Migration assumptions
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Assumptions summary
2 Fertility assumptions F1: Continuing high fertility F2: Decreasing fertility
3 Migration Assumptions M1: Continuing high migration M2: More moderate migration M0: Zero migration
1 Mortality Assumption
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Population Projections
Process
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Projection illustration
Males
40 30 20 10 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95100105
Age
Thousands
Females
0 10 20 30 40
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
100105
Age
Thousands
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Start with initial population (2006).Single year of age pyramid
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Mortality assumptions => number of deaths at each age
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Subtract deaths
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Migration assumptions => number of emigrants
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Projection illustration
Males Females
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Migration assumptions => number of immigrants
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Projection illustration
Males Females
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Population ages by 1 year
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Fertility rates + no. of women of child-bearing age
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Number of births(i.e. age 0)
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)
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Projection illustration
Males Females
Repeat as required!
Result is projected population after 1 year (2007)
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Population Projections
Results
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Population, 1841-2006
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1841 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
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Projected population 2006-2021
Migration accounts for over 90% of range
High Fertility (F1) Low Fertility (F2)
Year
M1 M2 M0 M1 M2 M0
Thousands
2011 4,738 4,686 4,422 4,729 4,676 4,413 2016 5,233 5,094 4,607 5,188 5,050 4,568 2021 5,688 5,449 4,764 5,590 5,356 4,686
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Primary & Secondary populations
“Primary” 5-12 was 450,500 in 2006 Will increase under all assumptions
To 623,100 by 2021 under M1F1 (+172,600)To 480,500 by 2021 under M0F2 (+30,000)
“Secondary” 13-18 was 342,300 in 2006 Will decline initially
To 339,400 by 2011 under M1F1Then increase again to reach 409,700 by 2021
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Young population 2006-2021
Population 0-14 Peaked at 1,044,000 in 1981 Fell to a low of 827,500 in 2001
Has increased since - was 865,000 in 2006Is projected to grow under all assumptions
By 2016 will reach 1,074,400 under M1F1 and 1,048,800 under M2F1
Under low fertility assumption By 2021 will be 1,021,200 under M2F2 and 0,866,900 under M0F2
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Primary school-going population
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
650000
700000
M1F1
M1F2
M2F1
M2F2
M0F1
M0F2
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Working age population
Working age population (15-64) 2,905,500 in 2006 Up 316,000 (2.3% p.a.) since 2001
In determining projections migration is key factor M1F1 3,745,900 in 2021 Up 840,000 (1.7% p.a.)
M2F1 3,565,800 in 2021 Up 660,300 (1.4% p.a.)
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Births 2006-2021
Population aged 0-14 in 2021 determined by annual births between 2006 and 2021
Births Historic high of 74,000 in 1980 Historic low of 48,300 in 1994 More recent high of 64,200 in 2006
Average annual projected births 2016 to 2021 Highest under M1F1 79,000 Compared with M2F2 69,000 And M0F2 51,000
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Projected population 2021-2041
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Old population (65+ years)
Old population (65+) 2006 462,400 2041 (M0) 1,313,300 2041 (M2) 1,396,600 3 fold increase 2041 (M1) 1,434,400
Oldest old population (80+) 20016 112,000 2041 (M0) 443,700 = 4 fold increase
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Actual and projected dependency ratios (M2F2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036
Year
Per
cen
t
Total
Old
Young
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Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M1F1)
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Population pyramid for 2006 and 2041 (M0F2)
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Population Projections
Labour Force Projections
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Labour Force projections
Labour force Persons aged 15+ at work or
unemployed Excludes homemakers / pupils / retired
Labour force participation rate Number of persons in the labour force,
expressed as a percentage of the total
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Labour Force Projections
Done as a final step in the projections process
Make assumptions about participation rates
Apply these to the results of population projections
Covers 15 year period
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Labour Force Projections
Different participation rates for different sections of population Male / Female Student / Non-student Have children? (For females)
Difficult to project – use marriage rates instead
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Labour Force Projections
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Labour Force participation rate assumptions
Males LFPR of 25-44 year old males largely unchanged Minor increases in LFPR of males aged 45+
reflecting a greater propensity to remain in the LF
Married females Further LFPR gains for 25-49 year olds Moderate gains in LFPR for females 50+
Other females Moderate increases in LFPR of these females
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Projected Labour Force
Year MalesFemales
PersonsMarried Other Total
Thousands
Actual* 1996 925.1 322.1 260.2 582.3 1,507.4 2002 1,076.6 414.5 349.8 764.3 1,840.9 2006 1,223.2 475.0 419.8 894.8 2,118.0
M1 2011 1,392.4 546.3 482.7 1,029.0 2,421.5 2016 1,532.7 620.0 511.8 1,131.8 2,664.5 2021 1,653.1 674.7 537.3 1,212.0 2,865.2
M2 2011 1,371.9 541.5 472.2 1,013.7 2,385.6 2016 1,480.7 605.3 487.3 1,092.6 2,573.3 2021 1,568.8 647.1 501.5 1,148.5 2,717.3
M0 2011 1,269.3 517.2 419.7 936.9 3,143.2 2016 1,302.6 550.8 407.9 958.7 3,220.0 2021 1,335.0 562.3 412.2 974.5 3,284.1
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Projected labour force
Working age population x participation rates Between 2002 and 2006 +72,000 p.a. Projected up to 2021 +50,000 p.a. under M1 +40,000 p.a. under M2 +13,000 p.a. under M0
Split increases into demographic / participationDemographic effect drives increases
males 90% under M1, and 66% under M0 married females 77% under M1 single females - demographic negative under M0
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Labour force growth rates
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Migration and the labour force
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Population Projections
Any questions?