Population TheoriesPopulation Theories

World Issues 120World Issues 120

Divergent ideas about population Divergent ideas about population growthgrowth

There are both optimistic and There are both optimistic and pessimistic views on population pessimistic views on population

growth:growth:

1.1. Cornucopian (Optimistic)Cornucopian (Optimistic)

2.2. Bogue (Optimistic)Bogue (Optimistic)

3.3. Malthus (Pessimistic)Malthus (Pessimistic)

4.4. Catton (Pessimistic)Catton (Pessimistic)

CornucopianCornucopian

Faith in the human ability to find Faith in the human ability to find technological innovations to carry technological innovations to carry

the increased capacity of the human the increased capacity of the human population.population.

BogueBogue

D.J. Bogue believed that society naturally D.J. Bogue believed that society naturally limits population – the population grows limits population – the population grows only in response to the Earth’s ability to only in response to the Earth’s ability to

support a larger population.support a larger population.

MalthusMalthus

Thomas Malthus believed that the Thomas Malthus believed that the population grows in geometric population grows in geometric

sequence (1,2,4,8,16…), whereas sequence (1,2,4,8,16…), whereas food only grows arithmetically food only grows arithmetically

(1,2,3,4,5…).(1,2,3,4,5…).

CattonCatton

William Catton believes William Catton believes that Earth’s carry that Earth’s carry

capacity has exceeded capacity has exceeded at the expense of at the expense of

environmental environmental damage.damage.

Result?Result?

Phantom carrying Phantom carrying capacity – capacity –

unsustainable use of unsustainable use of resourcesresources

Where do we go from here?Where do we go from here?

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections

The U.N. has three projections on how The U.N. has three projections on how quickly the population growth rate quickly the population growth rate declines. The projections are less declines. The projections are less

than a few years ago – this indicates than a few years ago – this indicates demographic transition occurring demographic transition occurring

faster than anticipated.faster than anticipated.