portfolio committee on wa...

I f;'IO ll PC Water ~

·~1, water & sanitation

I--1

\ Department:

~~~ Water and Sanitation ~ REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

~t]J'~ ~ . ~ ._.... PARLIAMENT ~ J}2.w ..... ......... .., ..... ,,, ....

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Portfolio Committee on Wa Sanitation

Strategies to mitigate climate change a drought in respect of water and sanitation

Presented by:

Dept. of Water & Sanitation

Date: Oct 2018 WATER IS LIFE, SANITATION IS DIGNITY

Overview of the presentation • South Africa's water situation in terms of

- Climate, freshwater scarcity and stress & distribution

• Drought management strategy

- Operating analyses and rules, water plans and decision processes

• Climate change strategy

- Strategic actions, mainstreaming and climate risks and vulnerability assessments

• Water demand and supply options

• Conclusions

2

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Sout h Africa's water sit uation • South Africa is one of the driest countries in SADC

• Only 9% of rainfall feeds rivers as runoff while only 4% recharges (replenishes) groundwater storage

• South Africa's climate is also highly variable

• South Africa is water stressed, and approaching scarcity Qepbetween exla•lllg tupply11ndproJeo•ed'dem•ndln2030, 'r.ol2030<knwld Cl 1• mate Impacts 'pri·or to

~rt.I> • \lodv•l>~1>-20r>1 e s.-.-n(-~IO-{(Jl'~ t I

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WATER JS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY

factoring in climate change): Less rainfall under natural conditions; more evaporation due to high temperature - hence low runoff and low recharge (equals very little water)

Highly variable climate - makes planning difficult because system response {from sudden wet to dry) - What's actual impact is key.

3

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Fresh water stress per region (note increased demand between 1995 and 2025)

Key message 1: Increased water use will contribute to increased water stress leading to scarcity (in future) - ACTION: manage requirements :

compare to California & Australia

Freshwater Stress 19

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ifrend of available water and total storage capacity in South Africa

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Key message 2: South Africa is currently water stressed (i.e. below 1 000 m3/inhabitant/year) and approaching scarce (i.e. less than 500 m3/inhabitant/year): Drastic steps = ( 1) enhanced monitoring and protection of what's available, (2) increased efficiency in use & (3) development of more sources. s


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WATER IS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY 6

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Note skewed distribution of rainfall ,and increase

eastwards while evaporation rates increase westwards

Toll Free: 0800 200 200 www.dwa.gov.za

.!> -- -

About 50% of our water resources originate from 8% of our land.

' Strategic Water Source Areas iype

Ground water

Surface water

- Both

- Rivers

D Provinces

• Setuements

·~"'•""" Nelson Mandela Bay

Key m·essage 3 : These high water yield areas are vulnerable and should be protected to limit potential land-use and climate change impacts

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Strategies to address water related challenges

~nc~uoHng for drought and cnmate change mitigation

8


-- - - - - - - -- - - - -- -

Drought strategy & implementation

9


OBJECTIVES OF THE DROUGHT M ANAGEM ENT STRATEGY

• 1 To standardize methods for the development and implementation of operating rules for water supply and drought management in South Africa

• 1 Drought management rules are embedded within water supply operating rules to ensure that appropriate protocols are readily available in case of drought, because it is not easy to determine exactly when drought has commenced.

• To document processes involved in the development and implementation of the operating rules, in order to help facilitate skills transfer and capacitation

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MANDATE • The Strategy is in line with the National

Water Act, 1998 (Act No. 36 of 1998) regarding, for example:

- i. Chapter 14, in which "Part 3 requires certain information relating to floods~ droughts and any other potential water-related risks to be made available to the public ... "

- ii. Schedule 3, Sec. 6, which requires that the relevant responsible authority mav temporarily control, limit or prohibit use of water during periods of water shortage

11


WHAT IS AN OPERATING RULE • An operating rule is a plan for governing the

regulation of water resources schemes in order to reconcile expected water requirements with availability

• Purpose of operating rules is to guide good practice procedures for managing abstractions, releases and restrictions in order to ensure equitable supply of water and mitigation against risk of failure (drying) of water resources, minimize water losses through spillages and reduce operational costs of the scheme

12

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Early Warning Systems (EWS) projecting storage trends and level (or time) when restrictions will be imposed -

based on an operating rule J

___l_ ___ - - - - ---

TotalVnl r------~- - ·----! - eo. .... -100% ---9'1.S~ · · · ··~

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! 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2018

Yu rs Ytan

----------r-----·-----------~

2015 P~ojection 2016 Projection

• Red dots indicate levels below which restrictions will have to be imposed if actual (thick black line) drops to the level

• Risk of restrictions in 2016 is higher than it was in 2015

13


BROAD CONTEXT AND RATIONALE OF ANNUAL OPERATING ANALYSES

Operating rules are determined/reviewed annually because:

• Surface water resources are annually replenished during rain season

• Operational water allocation for businesses is based on prevailing season's hydrology and is seldom the same as licensed water allocation

• Water requirement orders tend to differ from year to year as users' annual business plans vary

• The state of facilitating infrastructure may change from time to time on account of different annual maintenance and/or development schedules.

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SCOPE OF OPERATING RULES

Operating rules themselves are system specific ibecause: ' • Water resource availability depend on the

characteristics of the specific catchment's hydrology

• It is also dependent on the initial water storage of the system, which is not necessarily the same for different systems/dams

• Water requirement patterns and schedules are different for different water schemes

• Applicable by-laws and decision month are not the same for different schemes

15

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MAIN OUTCOMES OF OPERATING RULES

• 1 Equitable water supply

• 1 Restriction protocols during water shortages

•1 Pre-release indicators to minimize system/dam losses

through spillage

•1 Minimized scheme operational costs

•1 Reduced water losses through other means as evaporation

and seepage, among others

•1 Water quality management

•1 Facilitating infrastructure maintenance

• Maximized system yield through appropriate water mix

•1 Communication, public participation and capacity building

in terms of proper WC/DM, water loss management, etc.

16


TIMELINES & INTERDEPENDANCE OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS

17


GENERIC DECISION PROCESS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OPERATING RULES

Every 5 years:

• Review the hydrology and infrastructural configuration of the system

• Establish System Operation Forum (SOF)

• Verify licensed water allocations and projected water demands for the next 5 years

• Develop/review appropriate DSS for analyzing systems

operating rules

• Set Decision Date for "Water resource analysis and Budgeting" when SOF is held for communication on abstractable water allocations and restrictions

18


GENERIC DECISION PROCESS FOR DEVELOPM ENT AND IMPLEM ENTATION OF THE OPERATING RULES

Annually:

• Confirm capacity of water infrastructure including development and maintenance schedules for the business year

• Obtain Reserve release requirements (as some ROM prescribed floods are not necessarily annual)

• Update monthly water demand schedules for the business year, and its projection over the critical period (or next 5 years)

• Determine initial system storage conditions and conceptualize possible operational scenarios

• Undertake system analysis to determine operating rules for abstraction allocation schedules and restrictions up to the next Decision Month

• Review tariffs and implications for the year

• Presentation & decision on the annual operating rule & water allocation, and in case of restrictions, prepare the gazette notice for DG and establish a JOC

19


GENERIC DECISION PROCESS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OPERATING RULES

1 Monthly:

·• ! Monitoring performance of the system to determine if planed objectives are being achieved and communicated with stakeholders

• Audit for compliance with rules/demand allocation schedules and communicate with stakeholders

• 1 Forecast system hydrological trends for early warning of any extreme events' risks

• : In case of flooding/spilling conditions, initiate appropriate transfers and pre-releases

• ! In case of drought, determine & communicate restrictions, and advice Disaster Management office accordingly

20


GENERIC DECISION PROCESS FOR DEVELOPM ENT AND IMPLEM ENTATION OF THE OPERATING RULES

v· Weekly:

• Check the systems for unpredictable emergence occurrences

• In case of full dams reduce their risk of spilling by drawing them down first while controlling flooding risks

• Maintain Surveillance on water quality, reserve and · international obligations in order to advice appropriately

• Obtain water orders for the next week or so and plan accordingly

21

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GENERIC DECISION PROCESSES Freauencv Technical Reauirements Resoonsibllltv

1.1 Review the hvdroloqv and infrastructural confiouration of the svstem D: WRPS

1. Every 5 years This involves 1.2 Verify licensed water allocations and projected water demands for the next 5 vears D: WRPS

comprehensive review of 1.3 Develoo/review aoorooriate DSS for analvzino svstems ooeratina rules D: WRPS

I •., operating rules

1.4 Set Decision Date for 'Water Budgeting• when SOF is held for communication , on abstractable water allocations and restrictions D:WRPS v I

I 1.5 Develop/update relevant by-laws to manage water restrictions Respective WSA " I

2.1 Confirm capacity of water infrastructure including development and D:NWRl(O&M), D: maintenance schedules for the business vear WRPS

2.2 Obtain Reserve release requirements (as some ROM prescribed floods are not necessarilvannual) D: WRPS

1 2.3 Update monthly water demand schedules for the business year, and Its

J

oroiection for the critical oeriod (or next 5 vears) D: WRPS 1. Annually 2.4 Assess the prevailing hydrological conditions and capacities of water

I resources systems for the business year, and projection for the next critical period

I These Activities are concluded in the <or next five vears) D:WRPS

I Decision Month and then monitored for the rest of the water year 2.5 Apply appropriate DSS to run simulation tests & possible operation scenarios

I and determine the ootimal annual ooeratino rules & restrictions if anv D: WRPS

2.6 Based on the operating rules determine abstraction allocation schedules and i restrictions uo to the next Decision Month D:WRPS ' I 2. 7 Review tari ffs and implications for the vear D: NWRI CO&M)

2.8 Presentation & decision on the annual operating rule & water allocation, and in case of restrictions. oreoare the oazette notice for DG and establish a JOC D: WRPS CD: PO

I 3.1 Monitoring performance of the system to determine if planed objectives are D: WRPS, : beina achieved and communicated with stakeholders D:NWRlfO&Ml

i 3.2 Audit for compliance with rules/demand allocation schedules and D: WRPS I

1. Monthly communicate with stakeholders CD: CME I

' 3.3 Forecast svstem hvdrolooical trends for earlv warnino of extreme events' risks D:WRPS '

I 3.4 In case of imminent system failure to supply, determine & communicate

,. restrictions and advice Disaster Manaoement office accordinqlv. D: WRPS

I 4.1 Check the svstems for unoredictable emeraence occurrences Schem e Ooerator I

1. Weekly 4.2 In case of full dams reduce their risk of I soillino bv drawino them down first while controllino floodino risks Scheme Operator

' 4.3 Maintain Surveillance on water quality, reserve and International obligations

i In order to advice aoorooriatelv Scheme Ooerator

WATER IS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY 22 Toll Free: 0800 200 200 www.dwa.gov.za - -

Climate change

The Strategy

Strategic actions

l\Aainstreaming of the strategy

23


Climate Change Strategy is a li ~

ned to:

cu

~I ~I tG c

El 01::1 •• cu .. l! ! OJ ts t .~ 1i·

~~ f water & sanitation ('DJ-ii ~ oepartmen1: · ,\ 1, :· Water and Sanitation ~ REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

Climate Change Response Strategy for The

Water Sector DWS rtpOlt Numbtr: P ASA 000/00/18012/S ----The Strategy aims:

·~---~ 1 ol

../ To effectively manage climate change impacts on the country's water and sanitation through interventions that build and sustain South Africa's social, economic and environmental resilience and emergency response capacity; and

../ To promote the application of integrated water management as a priority tool to reduce climate vulnerability (including extreme events - drought & floods) 24


-

Strategic Actions (at local, national & regional levels)

• Governance

- building adaptive institutions, regional coordinati_on ...

• Water management l

~ - Data & information, climate scenario projections

• Infrastructure development & operation

- Water storage, reservoir development, ...

• Implementation

- Roles & responsibilities defined, Monitoring and Evaluation

• Review and update 25


Building adaptive institutions - _.L__..~

..... - ' · • ••••• • 0 ... . ~"'-~ ~·. m d :-.. ... ...... .. ..... . e> ·~ • ·· · · ·· · ·· · ···· · · ·· · · ·~ " ' " ....................... . rrrucrf

Particlpntory Assess vuln1m1blllty, Community vis ion O im11te-Sm11rt Vlll11g• diagn osis dHlcn od1pt1tlon lor adoptatlon (PfOIOtVl>e dewlcpod by t<;J R·SAAl1

ol cnmato chanio •ln t•cl•• (Vol do ttd by #Nd<,,. baud on """""-"';ty Y.sion) rhb (In• Toottir 'J (v1efr~11<J') stoktholdm}

~ .. ~ •Drallfll~WI~ • AjJalottllry • Sol Ind WIW eonstlYtllon ~ ······ ·~····

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Advocacy platforms Conntct to dhtrlct~•wl groups lot

pQ."Cy a nd b\Jdgt t.ry suppo<t

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' __,., I \ Croppma and water manaqement deci~ions

Monitorinc and Evalu<itlon uslrc Toolkit'

'1°"'11.lttA.dwt'opt,ty r,.ht1~1.M:<J.1/olCO".ttMtSo,., tfN«wr1lCKN)toot""°ti 1 •AI Pff/cl~~O..Wt•M ~~ofthl ~/!fJYffOP4<:t't fo dii!:f1f1~r.'.svrt•Ntlf '*"~ rrJJ!J.1ullf-""Htt1etHo~etlf'9'1t!td f'VO.l>o'Nlt/to~lt'Ot1.r,~0V1cil/Oll<At.~Hll&Mttitl ltt1totflt• S.vot"l"A ~C'f'ic\4."'11 f.t1roffh~t1

Keep DWS appropriately informed and capacitated and raise requisite awareness on adaptation (e.g. water use efficiency)26


- - - - ---- - -- - - -- - ~ - - -

Data monitoring information

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WATER IS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY

Mean Annual Recharge (Northern Cape)

• Normal

• Drought

27


In Regard to Weather I Climate, Different Types of Decisions Need to be Made in the Water Sector

CLIMATE I

TYPE OF Long Term (10-50yrs) DECISION Decadal Changes

I I Strategic

-Tactical

Operational

•Supply /demand •Reservoir safety •Reservoir sizing •Land management

Different 'States' of Climate Require Appropriate Scales

_of_Time and Space

Medium Term (6-9mths)

Seasonal Forecasts

•Operating rules •Water orders •Water allocation •Demand management

r HISTORICAL

STATE

1

APPROPRIATE SPACE SCALES

I WEATHER

Short term (0-7days)

Real Time~ Week

•Irrigation scheduling •Flood warning •Field operations

l 1 NOW FUTURE

STATE STATE

1

APPROPR/A TE TIME SCALES

28


Mainstreaming climate change into water planning &

management · ~oeo consideration of climate related

aspects in water p~anning and management

29


Mainstreaming climate change into water and sanitation

management • ·~ Following consultation process with regions,

- Some regions developed own response strategies

- Efficiency in water use in consideration of climate change impacts - promoted during campaigns

•

1 Assessment of climate change impacts in reconciliation studies

- uMkhomazi Water Project: on proposed Smithfield Dam

30


- - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - --

Assessing the flood design capacity of the Smithfield Dam to accommodate future flood peaks under climate change scenarios for the

eriod 2046-2065. • The magnitude of the future flood peak at that

. dam is projected to increase by 30% requiring a non-overspill crest level of 935.8 m.

• However, this level is within the originally proposed level of 936.0 m which means that crest level provides adequate resilience.

• Otherwise, the climate change scenario projections inform the requisite adaptation response 31


Vulnerability assessment, in order to develop better understanding of potential

risks and projected climate change impacts on water

to e

ante ca cu a S~o

*****

AND

Climate change dashboard

32


Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability Assessment: Vaal, Orange, Mzimvubu-Tsitsikamma, Olifants and Limpopo Water Management Areas

Findings - For the Lesotho Highlands is:

• A projected slight increase in summer rainfall and decrease of winter rainfall by more than 25% during the intermediate future {2046 -2065)

• The temperature for Mohale's Hoek area within Lesotho under the worst case scenario for the same period is projected to increase by up to 2°C.

What about water transfers from Lesotho "in future"?

• This has implication for future continued reliance of water transfer from Lesotho, which calls for South Africa to be more water wise now in view of the possible shortage in future 33


40

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WATER IS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY

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Dashboa rd on t he DWS website

NATIONAL INTEGRATED WATER INFORMATION SYSTEM strategic > Climate Change > CEmate Change

+

.. :~ WATER IS LIFE - SANITATION IS DIGNITY 35

Flftt r: S!reaml'aN MeM Anmal Slream!loY.'S

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Strategic > CUJnate Change

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Addressing water demand and supply

AND

C~~mate change r~sk ano1 vulnerabUity

assessments

37


The Water Conservation and Demand Management is a climate change adaptation strategy to address the demand side of the

water security challenge.

• ; For instance, in this regard the Department continues to work collaboratively with the Local Government (e.g. via War-on-Leaks Project)

- to reduce the non-revenue water challenge

- by improving water use efficiency and

-- reducing water losses from the system.

38


Supply: water mix approach with ·ncreased use of unconventional water

sources

120%

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Water Availability Mid Term 2025 Long Term 2040 Mix{2000)

NOTE: Percentage usage of unconventional sources (such as groundwater, reuse, etc.), is progressively increased with time, while reliance on the oversubscribed surface water decreases. 39


South Africa delineated into hydro-climatic zones

41

Climate change impacts and strategies per zone

• Some Provinces developed climate change strategies but not water-specific

• DWS developed the strategy per zone (cluster of one or more regions)

42

., .. ... ' '

South Africa delineated into hydro-climatic zones

e

43

Zone 1: Limpopo, Olifants & lnkomati

• Key climate variability impacts:

- Likely reduction in rainfall, particularly in the summer

rainfall period

- Significant increased temperatures, and thus evaporation

• Implications

- Less water available, increased demands for agric & domestic use

• Strategies

- Increased efficiency in water use (reduce non-revenue water) enforce compliance to water use licensing

- Increase water mix (groundwater and reuse) sources

44

Zone 2: Pongola - Umzimkulu • Key climate variability impacts:

- Likely increase in summer rainfall, with increased large events (storms)

- Moderate increase in temperatures due to proximity to ocean.

• Implications - Flooding

• Strategies - Upscale use of early warning systems to protect

communities from flood events

- Collaborate with other agencies to better manage extreme events

45

Zone 3: The Vaal


- Highly uncertain future rainfall, with possible wetting or drying during the summer months.

- Likely increase in storm activity and large rainfall events.

- Significant increase in temperatures

• Implications

- Increased efficiency in water use including water quality management

46

Zone 4: The Orange


- Uncertainty of rainfall patterns in the eastern parts, but with likely increased storm activity.

- Likely drying in the arid western and coastal areas.

- Significant increase in temperature expected.

• Implications

- More dependency on groundwater

• Strategies

- Improved groundwater assessment and management

47

Zone 5: Mzimvubu-Tsitsikamma


- Uncertainty in rainfall impacts in year round rainfall area, although likely drying in the west.

- Likely increases in the summer rainfall in the western parts.

- Moderate temperature increases.

• Implications for water

- Improve forecasting and projections

• Strategies

- Water reuse and efficiency

48

Zone 6: Breede Gouritz -Berg Olifants • Key climate variability impacts:

- Uncertain climate impacts on winter rainfall, but likely increase in orographic activity.

- Possibly spread of rainfall beyond the historical winter rainfall period.

- Moderate temperature increases compared to the rest of the country.

• Implications - Increased vulnerability to drought conditions

• Strategies - Water mix (desalination, development of

groundwater and reuse) 49

Conclusions • South Africa is a water stressed country and

likely to become water scarce. Hence strategies developed are being implemented

• Successful implementation of (and compliance to) operating rules may contribute to sustainability of water resources

• Mainstreaming of climate change strategies is key to adaptation

• Both demand management (enhanced efficiency in water use) and water mix are sound approaches to resolve water challenges

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