portfolio final report

Top-Down Analysis of Investment Decision

IntroductionIntroduction

1. Objective of the study

Advocates of the top-down analysis believe that economy, market and the industry effect

have a significant impact on the total returns from individual stocks. Here we have

conducted a top-down analysis of Zeal BangIa Sugar Mills Ltd. and Shyampur Sugar Mills

Ltd. for taking decision regarding investment on the stocks of these companies.

2. Methodology of the study

For making top-down analysis we have used secondary data for the analysis. We have

collected the financial statements from both the companies. Moreover we have followed an

as-is process of analysis of the top-down approach. That is a three-step approach has

been followed in the analysis.

The remaining part of the report has been produced in seven chapters. Chapter 2, 3, 4 and

5 describes the basic three step of the top-down analysis. Chapter six demonstrates the

findings of our study followed by the suggestions in chapter seven. The last chapter at the

end of the report we have given our decision whether an investor should invest in these

companies in the current state of the economy we have assumed.

1


Analysis of the EconomyAnalysis of the Economy1. Variables Studied:

For following top down approach we initially consider the aggregate economy and market

and then we put our attention on industry and finally analyze our concerned firm & their

stock. Variables considered in the study of the economy are:

GDP

Inflation

Monetary policy

Fiscal policy

Interest rate

2. Outcome of the study:

Gross domestic product (GDP):

GDP is an indicator of the economic activities of a nation. A country is likely to increase its

GDP growth rate as it reflects a positive economic progress of the country. In the last year,

the GDP growth rate of Bangladesh was around 6.7%. And this year it is expected to 6.8%

or it can be 7%. But ADB has said that for political complicacy, the current GDP would fall

to around 6.5%. So we expect that the expected GDP for 2007 would be around 6.8%

which is not much deviated from last years GDP. So it will not create significant impact on

our valuation process.

Inflation:

If inflation rate is expected to increase or decrease it will have an impact on both the rate of

return and the stock price. For an increase in the expected rate of inflation real rate of

return of an investor also increases and vice versa. Again it has a positive impact on stock

market as purchasing power of people increase and they might invest in stock market.

Indicators FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

CPI inflation 1.9 2.8 4.4 5.8 6.5 7.2

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of statistics

From the above table we see that inflation is expected to grow in the next financial year

2007. As a result of these expectation investors expected rate of return from investment in

stock market will also increase. Again we can think that for an inflation rate that is expected

to increase, income as well as purchasing power of people will increase. But as demand of

sugar will not increase with the increase of income people will use their money either to

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invest or to consume other products. So investment may increase in stock market for an

increase in inflation but not necessarily in sugar industry.

Monetary policy:

Bangladesh Bank continued to pursue a cautious restrained monetary policy with the

broader objective of maintaining price stability while supporting the highest sustainable real

output growth in FY06. As a result there will be less loan able fund for the business firm

and they have to incur higher interest rate which will increase their financial expenses and

decrease profitability.

Fiscal policy:

Government prepare budget for a fiscal year which has revenue and expenditure. It

collects revenue through imposing tax to finance its expenditure. Tax rate of agricultural

industry is 30% according to income tax Ordinance 1984. Sugar industry belongs to this

industry. Currently, import of raw sugar is duty free. As a result, firms which import raw

sugar from abroad have a lower cost of production as opposed to the domestic producers

of sugar that have to incur higher cost of production for VAT. Thus sugar industry has been

divided into two sectors making it a competitive industry.

Interest rate:

There is no direct relationship between interest rate and stock market. Sugar companies

have to take loan as the same rate like the other borrowers of the economy. So this

industry cannot influence significantly with the changes in interest rate.

3


Industry AnalysisIndustry Analysis

1. Industry Background:

Sugar Industry from time immemorial places in and around Bangladesh have been growing

sugarcane for making gud or sukker or khandeswari. Such sweeteners are also produced

from date and palm juice. Bengal was well known for quality sugar in the 16th century. The

East India Company exported large quantities of sugar from Bengal every year. The

volume was 820,186 maunds (1 maund = 37.65 kg) in 1795 and 3,324,168 maunds in

1805. Production of beet sugar caused decline in production of cane sugar towards 1840.

Later, the sugar industry suffered seriously due to diversion of land to jute.

Sugar industry plays an important role in the economy of Bangladesh by way of farming

and creation of employment. The industry is under the Bangladesh Sugar and Food

Industries Corporation. By-products of sugar mills have many uses. Molasses and bagasse

are inputs for other industries. Around 425,000 acres of land are under sugarcane and the

annual production is about 7.5 million tons, of which only 2.28 million tons are used in

sugar mills and the rest goes to molasses making. Bangladesh now produces about

150,000 tons of sugar, 100,000 tons of molasses and 800,000 tons of bagasse per year.

The country, however, ranks the lowest in the world in per acre yield of sugarcane - only 15

tons, while the comparative figures for Cuba, Indonesia, Australia and Hawaii are 36, 45,

55 and 70 tons respectively. Recovery of sugar from cane is also the poorest in

Bangladesh - only 7.4% compared to 9% in Indonesia, 12.3% in Cuba, 12.4% in Hawaii

and 15.6% in Australia.

In the 1980s, the industry employed 15% of the labor force and had 30% of the fixed

assets of the food industry as a whole. With 1.5% of world production, Bangladesh ranked

67th among the 130 sugar producing nations. In 2000, the country had 15 sugar mills at

Panchagarh, Thakurgaon, Setabganj, Rangpur, Shyampur, Rajshahi, Mahimaganj,

Jaipurhat, Darshana, Kushtia, Mobarakganj, Jamalpur, Kaliachapra, Narsingdi, and Pabna.

The estimated total annual production capacity of these mills was about 215,000 tons but

the mills did not work in full capacity and, therefore, the production remained far less than

the country's total estimated annual demand of about 400,000 tons. A major reason for the

mills to work below full capacity is the shortage of cane as farmers often find it more

rewarding to use land for production of rabi and kharif crops.

4


2. Analysis of the Industry:

Industry analysis is the second step followed in top down approach of stock valuation.

Investment practitioners perform industry analysis most seriously while valuing any stock of

a company. The reason behind is that it helps the investors isolate investment

opportunities that have favorable return risk characteristics. Industry analysis, in other way

we can say helps an investor choose the best company belonging in a lucrative industry

that may affect positively while the economy runs well but may affect slightly while the

economy is in recession.

i. The business cycle and the industry sectors:

Most of the industries more or less are affected by economic or business cycle. Sometimes

in the pick season demand of product of that industry increases while in the recession it

decreases. But sugar industry is not so much affected by business cycle. Demand of sugar

remains almost same through out the year though supply of sugar may decreases in the

recession period.

ii. Structural economic changes and alternative industries:

Demographics, changes in technology, life styles, and political and regulatory

environments are likely to affect the cash flow and risk prospects of different industries. Our

sugar industry may affect by all these variables in the following ways:

Demographic changes are not likely to affect demand and supply of sugar so much.

Lifestyle also do not play much role to affect sugar industry

Technological change can take a big role in this industry because technology has

brought success for many of the companies in the world. But most of the

companies in our sugar industry still do not take the advantage of technological

change. They use old machineries for decades and for this reason their production

level can not cope pace with the huge demand of sugar. As for example, our total

demand of sugar is 4 lak M.T annually but for inadequate production level and lack

of technological advantage supply of sugar is only 2 lak MT per year.

5


Our sugar industry is highly affected by political change and regulations imposed by

government. Fifteen of companies in this industry are regulated by government and

other two of the companies are governed by private owners. For political change,

bureaucracy and different regulations these fifteen government regulated

companies cannot compete with the privately owned companies. For example, if

government decides to sell sugar at Tk. 32 per kilo then the competitors determine

the price lower than 32 immediately which government regulated companies cannot

do within a short time.

iii. Evaluating an industry’s life cycle:

Industry life cycle can affect an investor’s decision to which industry they will invest. Most

investors are likely to invest in industries with rapid accelerating growth. The sugar industry

belongs to food industry also and this industry is always in growth stage. As import of sugar

and raw sugar from other countries sugar industry for local production reaches to a

maturity or stabilization

iv. Analysis of the competitive environment in an industry:

For analyzing the competitive environment of our sugar industry we will use porters five

forces analysis. And these analyses are:

Rivalry or competition among the existing companies:

In the sugar industry at present seventeen companies is in operation. Among them fifteen

of the companies are government owned and two of the companies are privately owned.

Though there are few companies competing in this industry, recently competitions are

available between the two differently owned sectors. Here price rivalry occurs between the

two because sugar is not a differentiated product. Again as the growth rate is slow recently

competition for market share increases. Privately owned companies are cutting prices to

increase market share and thus cover excessive fixed cost. Exit barrier is high for public

companies as social cost is high to close it for worse performance. For labor agreement

and huge employment opportunity it is tough to exit though there is below average or

negative rates of return.

The current market players of this industry are listed in the following:

SI. No. Name of the Enterprises Location/Address

6


1. Panchagarh Sugar Mills Ltd. Panchagar

2. Setabganj Sugar Mills Ltd. Setabganj, Dinajpur

3. Thakurgaon Sugar Mills Ltd. Thakurgaon

4. Shyampur Sugar Mills Ltd. Shyampur, Rangpur

5. Jaipurhat Sugar Mills Ltd. Jaipurhat

6. Natore Sugar Mills Ltd. Natore

7. North Bengal Sugar Mills Ltd. Gopalpur, Natore

8. Rajshahi Sugar Mills Ltd. Harian, Rajshahi

9. Kushtia Sugar Mills Ltd. Jagati, Kushtia

10. Mobarakganj Sugar Mills Ltd. Naldanga,Jhenaidah

11. Carew & Co(BD) Ltd. Darsana, Chuadanga

12. Faridpur Sugar Mills Ltd. Madhukhali, Faridpur

13. Pabna Sugar Mills Ltd. Dashuria, Pabna

14. Zeal BangIa Sugar Mills Ltd. Dewanganj, Jamalpur

15. Carew's Distillery Darshana, Chuadanga

16. Renwick, Jagneswar & Co. Kushtia

Yearly projected and actual level of production of sugar has been shown with the following

figure:

Yearly Projected and Actual Production

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

Time

Lac

Met

ric

To

n

Projected Production Actual Production

7


The above figure shows the level of actual and projected sugar production in the country by

the fourteen sugar mills in the year 2004-05.

Threat of new entrants:

Although the sugar industry has few competitors, publicly owned companies are in a

treating position imposed by privately owned companies. Here demand is much higher

than aggregate supply and so new firms are recently capturing market share to through out

publicly owned companies from market. New firms are importing raw sugar and selling

them by only refining that sugar. For this reason, their cost of production is lower than

public firms as they produce sugarcane and sugar themselves.

Threat of substitute products:

As there is no strong substitute product for sugar, industry competition is not so much as it

should be.

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Th

ou

san

d M

. T

on

Company Name

Millwise Actual and Projected Production

Projected Production Actual Production


Bargaining power of buyers:

Bargaining power of the customers does not exist as supply of sugar can not meet the

growing need and demand of sugar.

Bargaining power of suppliers:

Bargaining power of suppliers that is sugarcane producers is nil. As they have to sell sugar

cane to the government authority and for production purpose they have to take loans from

government as well. Again, there is another supplier who supplies raw sugar at a rate

much lower than local production cost. These foreign suppliers of raw sugar have high

bargaining power.

v. Overall judgment on industry attractiveness:

From the above analysis regarding our sugar industry, we come to know the following

findings

Business cycle does not affect much on Sugar industry.

Change of Life style has almost no effect on Sugar industry.

Technological change has a significant effect on this industry.

Political change has significant effect on it.

Industry life cycle will have little possibility to be matured as it belongs to food

industry.

Competition or rivalry is not much, threat of new entrants is high, bargaining power

of the buyer and seller is low and threat of substitute products is very low.

So we can comment that this is an attractive industry which has a huge potentiality to earn

sufficient profit for a firm and sufficient rate of return for investors.

9


Two Company AnalysesTwo Company Analyses

Company analyses are the last step of stock valuation under top down approach. An

industry possesses various companies and each company is unique in their management

efficiency, capital structure, resource availability, environmental facility etc in spite of their

being in the same industry. That’s why it can not be said that if an industry is attractive all

of its companies are also good. Giving importance to this matter, company analysis is an

important step to consider while making stock valuation to invest in a specific company.

Company analysis demonstrates how to complete the fundamental analysis process by

analyzing a company and deciding whether investors should buy its stock. This requires a

separate analysis of a company and its stock. It conveys the idea that the common stocks

of both companies are not necessarily good investments.

1. Company Background:

For the purpose of our analysis we have conducted our study on Shyampur Sugar Mills

Ltd. and Zeal BangIa Sugar Mills Ltd. The basic information of both of these companies

has been shown in the following tables:

Name of the sugar mill Zeal Bangla Sugar mills limited, Dewanganj, Jamalpur

Year of establishment1958 under the joint co operation of Pakistan and New

Zealand.

Supplier of Plant & Machineries: Buck wolf, West Germany

Authorized capital 1.86 crore taka.

Annual production capacity 10160 Metric Ton (M.T)

Current value of the plant 17.54 crore taka.

Human resource Permanent-480, Seasonal-196, Contractual-308, Total-984.

Total land area of the mill 151 acre.

Total farmable land for growing

sugarcane

25,000 acre.

Number of sugarcane growers 16,000

Number of sugarcane buying

centre

27

10


Total amount of loan supplied to

the growers

3 crore taka.

Name of the sugar mill Shyampur Sugar Mills Limited, Rangpur

Year of establishment 1964

Supplier of machineries Mitsubishi, Japan

Daily capacity of sugar grinding 1016 M.T

Annual capacity of sugar

production

10161 M.T

Total amount invested 119.75 Lac Taka.

Total area of land 99 acre.

Number of sugarcane sub zone 5

Number of sugarcane selling

centre

38

2. SOWT analysis

Syampur Sugar Zeal Bangla Sugar

Strengths 1. Nationally produced

sugar

2. Can get supply of

sugarcane with their own

supervision and control

3. Government regulated

1.Nationally produced

sugar

2. Can get supply of

sugarcane with their own

supervision and control

3. Government regulated

Weakness 1. Cannot respond with the

market change immediately

2. Bureaucratic problem

3. Machineries are old and

machine breakdowns occur

frequently for which

targeted production level

cannot be achieved

4. Top management is

inefficient and corrupted

5. Corruption and nepotism

1. Cannot respond with the

market change immediately

2. Bureaucratic problem

3. Machineries are old and

machine breakdowns occur

frequently for which

targeted production level

cannot be achieved

4. Top management is

inefficient and corrupted

5. Corruption and nepotism

11


exist almost all phases of

the management

6. 51% is government

ownership and the residual

is privately owned. That’s

why there is problem of

decision making. Taking

more time and incurring

more cost.

7. Cannot import raw sugar

from abroad. Cost of

production increases for

domestic production of

sugarcane which negates

profit.

8. If private competitors

determine to sell sugar at a

lower rate then the firm has

to respond with these

changes of price.

exist almost all phases of

the management

6. 51% is government

ownership and the residual

is privately owned. That’s

why there is problem of

decision making. Taking

more time and incurring

more cost.

7. Cannot import raw sugar

from abroad. Cost of

production increases for

domestic production of

sugarcane which negates

profit.

8. If private competitors

determine to sell sugar at a

lower rate then the firm has

to respond with these

changes of price.

Opportunities 1. Can use local

environment for increasing

production.

2. Number of competitors

is low.

3. Supply of raw materials

is not subject to indirect tax.

1. Can use local

environment for increasing

production.

2. Number of competitors

is low.

3. Supply of raw materials

is not subject to indirect tax.

Threats 1. Competitors can import

raw sugar without duty for

which their cost of

production is lower which

increases their profit.

2. Competitors can sell

sugar at a lower rate which

increases their market

1. Competitors can import

raw sugar without duty for

which their cost of

production is lower which

increases their profit.

2. Competitors can sell

sugar at a lower rate which

increases their market

12


share.

3. As it is regulated by

government, political

environment change can

affect the firm adversely.

4. Bad weather and labor

unrest may affect

production level adversely.

5. Grower sometimes sell

sugarcane to private

competitors.

6. Sugarcane production is

seasonal for which supply

may not match demand.

7. Growers may be

interested to produce other

goods rather then

sugarcane.

share.

3. As it is regulated by

government, political

environment change can

affect the firm adversely.

4. Bad weather and labor

unrest may affect

production level adversely.

5. Grower sometimes sell

sugarcane to private

competitors.

6. Sugarcane production is

seasonal for which supply

may not match demand.

7. Growers may be

interested to produce other

goods rather then

sugarcane.

3. Competitive strategy analysis

After an investor have determined the competitive structure of an industry he should

attempt to identify the specific competitive strategy employed by each firm and evaluate

these strategies in terms of the overall competitive structure of the industry.

A firm’s competitive strategy can either be defensive or offensive. If it takes defensive

strategy then it will try to position itself in such a way as its capabilities provide the best

means to deflect the effect of the competitive forces in the industry. An offensive

competitive strategy is one in which the firm attempts to use its strengths to affect the

competitive forces in the industry.

Again porter suggests two major strategies:

Low cost leader ship strategy

Differentiation strategy

13


In fact, Shyampur and Zeal Bangla Sugar mills Ltd. do not follow any competitive strategy.

Neither they have any strategy to lower the production cost and thus increasing their profit

nor do they have any differentiation strategy to attract customers and thus increase sales

price or sales volume. In fact, there is little scope for these firms to differentiate their

products.

Of course, both of the firms and even all of the fifteen firms run by government regulation

are little bit defensive against competitive forces in the industry specifically against private

firms.

The consequence of not having any strong competitive strategy is very furious for both the

firm. Shyampur Sugar mills have incurred loss for the last eleven consecutive years. On

the other hand, Zeal Bangla Sugar mills are carrying losses forward for the last fifteen

consecutive years.

14


Stock AnalysisStock Analysis

For choosing the right stock we follow discounted cash flow method. Under discounted

cash follow method we have done Operating cash flow method and free cash flow method.

We have not done dividend discount method because due to net loss they did not declared

dividend. Details financial statements of both the companies for valuation have been

shown in the appendix.

1. Assumptions:

For valuation of stock we have the following assumptions:

1. The terminal growth rate of the industry is 1.0.

2. We have conducted financial analysis by using information from the financial

statement from July 01, 2001-June 30, 2006.

3. 10 years Treasury bill interest rate is considered as risk free rate and used the

same in calculating the beta.

4. Monthly DSE average change is converted into market return by multiplying it

with 12.

5. Corporate tax rate is applicable for the companies are 30% as they belong in

agriculture industry.

6. Cost of equity has been calculated by using CAPM.

7. For beta calculation 60 months observations of changes of stock price and DSE

index is taken.

8. Cost of debt is calculated by adding 2% risk premium with the risk free rate.

9. Equity value is calculated multiplying the number of share outstanding with the

share price that exists in the market at December31, 2005.

10. Sales growth is determined by the geometric mean of the historical growth rate.

11. Cost of goods sold is the average of the historical figure.

12. Administrative overhead and selling & distributive overhead is calculated by the

average of historical figure and it is assumed to remain same for the expected

years.

13. Depreciation expenses for the forecasted years are bases on historical average

rate of depreciation.

15


2. Valuation:

Using all the above assumptions we have calculated the fundamental or intrinsic value of

equity which is Tk. (826.95) against market value of Tk. 17.10 (as on March 09, 2007)

which means that the stock price of Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills Limited is overvalued. That

means in future the stock price is expected to decline. So we should not purchase the

stock of Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills Limited.

On the other hand the intrinsic value of Shyampur Sugar Mills Limited stock is Tk. (408.97)

against market value of Tk. 12.70 (as on March 09, 2007) which means that the stock price

of Shyampur Sugar Mills Limited is also overvalued. That means in future the stock price is

expected to decline. So we should not purchase the stock of Shyampur Sugar Mills

Limited.

16


FindingsFindingsAccording to the industry analysis, we find that sugar industry is one of the industries which

have huge potentiality for making investment. The annual demand of sugar of our country

is 12 lac metric tons (M.T) out of which only 1.9544 lac M.T is produced by our local

companies. So there is a large gap between demand and supply which is met up by import.

So, local companies have the opportunity to increase their market share.

The economic life of the machineries of most of the local companies is already expired.

Their efficiency and productivity become low and maintenance cost become high and

machine break down occurs frequently for which targeted production level may not be

achieved. So the cost of production of local produced sugar becomes higher and they face

competitive disadvantage with respect to imported sugar.

Using the technological facilities, firms can produce as much product as it can meet the

growing demand of sugar. Only then there is no need for importing sugar or raw sugar.

But it is a matter of fact that most of the firms belong to this industry under public regulation

have been incurring loss for the several consecutive years. On the other hand private firms

are progressing at a rapid speed beating public firms. The government is not likely to shut

down the loss incurring firms only for avoiding social costs because there are more than 10

lac people are directly and indirectly dependent with this industry.

The reasons behind the failure of these firms even in such a lucrative industry can be some

of the following reasons:

Government change and political issues.

Bureaucratic problems in decision making regarding any major strategy changes.

Corruption and nepotism in the recruitment of employees.

Inefficiencies in the management level.

Use of Old machineries.

The growers of sugarcane who supply the major inputs of sugar industry do not get

their required fertilizer and insecticides on time which is the government

responsibility to supply.

Sometimes growers do not get their required selling price which covers their cost of

production. So they incur loss and shifted their attention to other agricultural

cultivation from sugarcane cultivation. For that reason, local industries production

often hampered due to shortage of input supply.

17


SuggestionsSuggestionsThough there is ample opportunity to flourish this industry, it has not come out from the bad

patch yet. The changes that might attract the investors to invest in this industry are as

follows:

If the companies incorporate the technological advancement in their operation,

it will reduce their cost of production and thus increase profit for investor.

Effective management should be ensured.

The firm should be freed from corruption and nepotism.

Decision making process should be within reasonable time.

Formal hierarchical management should be replaced by participative

management.

Proper supply of Fertilizer and other required materials necessary for

producing sugarcane by the growers should be ensured.

The growers should be paid reasonably so that they might not turn out from

producing sugarcane to other production.

Effective monitoring of sugarcane production and removal of any discrepancies

in the production of both sugar and sugarcane.

Quality and credibility of public information should be ensured based on which

investors will make investment decision.

Activities of trade union should be controlled according to Labor Law.

Any contractual agreement which is made violating the rules and regulations

should be void.

Any fraudulent activities in measuring the weight, corruption in the selection of

efficient growers, negligence in giving services to the growers, extravagancy of

the government fund and corruption in the trade of product in the factory all

these should be handled strictly and even by ensuring notable punishment for

the miscreants.

Any fraudulent activities in measuring the weight, corruption in the selection of

efficient growers, negligence in giving services to the growers, extravagancy of

the government fund and corruption in the trade of product in the factory all

these should be handled strictly and even by ensuring notable punishment for

the miscreants.

18


The DecisionThe Decision

All we have done so far, the purpose is only whether it would be justified and profitable to

invest in Shyampur Sugar Mills and Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills. In line of making the decision,

we have analyzed the current economic condition that might make our sugar industry

lucrative, the sugar industry’s attractiveness and finally the specific two companies along

with their stock valuation. This top down approach finally gives us the solution of our

decision of whether to invest in sugar industry or more specifically in Zeal Bangla Sugar

Mills and Shyampur Sugar Mills. Our decision is that we should not invest in these two

companies as their stock prices are significantly overvalued. If and only if the two

companies take sufficient measures to improve their performance we will make further

consideration about whether to invest in any of the two companies.

19


Bibliography

1. Investment decision & Portfolio management (6th edition)

By: Reilly & Brown

2. Annual report of Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills Ltd. & Shyampur Sugar Mills Ltd. (2001-

02 to 2005-06)

3. Annual performance report published by Bangladesh Sugar & Food Industries

Company (BSFIC)

4. WWW.Bangladesh-bank.org

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http://WWW.Bangladesh-bank.org/

portfolio final report

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