portfolio revision
TRANSCRIPT
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Outline
Introduction Active management versus passive
management When do you sell stock?
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Introduction Portfolios need maintenance and
periodic revision:Because the needs of the beneficiary will
changeBecause the relative merits of the portfolio
components will changeTo keep the portfolio in accordance with the
investment policy statement and investment strategy
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Active Management Versus Passive Management Definition The manager’s choices Costs of revision Contributions to the portfolio
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Definition An active management policy is one in
which the composition of the portfolio is dynamicThe portfolio manager periodically changes:
○ The portfolio components or○ The components’ proportion within the
portfolio A passive management strategy is
one in which the portfolio is largely left alone
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The Manager’s Choices Leave the portfolio alone Rebalance the portfolio Asset allocation and rebalancing within
the aggregate portfolio Change the portfolio components Indexing
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Leave the Portfolio Alone A buy and hold strategy means that the
portfolio manager hangs on to its original investments
Academic research shows that portfolio managers often fail to outperform a simple buy and hold strategy on a risk-adjusted basis
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Rebalance the Portfolio Rebalancing a portfolio is the process
of periodically adjusting it to maintain the original conditions
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Rebalancing Within the Portfolio Constant mix strategy Constant proportion portfolio insurance Relative performance of constant mix
and CPPI strategies
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Constant Mix Strategy The constant mix strategy:
Is one to which the manager makes adjustments to maintain the relative weighting of the asset classes within the portfolio as their prices change
Requires the purchase of securities that have performed poorly and the sale of securities that have performed the best
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Constant Mix Strategy (cont’d)
Example
A portfolio has a market value of Rs2 million. The investment policy statement requires a target asset allocation of 60 percent stock and 30 percent bonds.
The initial portfolio value and the portfolio value after one quarter are shown on the next slide.
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Constant Mix Strategy (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
What Rs amount of stock should the portfolio manager buy to rebalance this portfolio? What Rs amount of bonds should he sell?
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Date Portfolio Value Actual Allocation Stock Bonds
1 Jan Rs2,000,000 60%/40% Rs1,200,000
Rs800,000
1 Apr Rs2,500,000 56%/44% Rs1,400,000
Rs1,100,000
Constant Mix Strategy (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
Solution: a 60%/40% asset allocation for a Rs2.5 million portfolio means the portfolio should contain Rs1.5 million in stock and Rs1 million in bonds. Thus, the manager should buy Rs100,000 worth of stock and sell Rs100,000 worth of bonds.
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Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance A constant proportion portfolio
insurance (CPPI) strategy requires the manager to invest a percentage of the portfolio in stocks:
Rs in stocks = Multiplier x (Portfolio value – Floor value)
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Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (cont’d)
Example
A portfolio has a market value of Rs2 million. The investment policy statement specifies a floor value of Rs1.7 million and a multiplier of 2.
What is the Rs amount that should be invested in stocks according to the CPPI strategy?
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Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
Solution: Rs600,000 should be invested in stock:
Rs in stocks = 2.0 x (Rs2,000,000 – Rs1,700,000)
= Rs600,000
If the portfolio value is Rs2.2 million one quarter later, with Rs650,000 in stock, what is the desired equity position under the CPPI strategy? What is the ending asset mix after rebalancing?
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Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
Solution: The desired equity position after one quarter should be:
Rs in stocks = 2.0 x (Rs2,200,000 – Rs1,700,000)
= Rs1,000,000
The portfolio manager should move Rs350,000 into stock. The resulting asset mix would be: Rs1,000,000/Rs2,200,000 = 45.5%
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Relative Performance of Constant Mix and CPPI A constant mix strategy sells stock as it
rises
A CPPI strategy buys stock as it rises
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Relative Performance of Constant Mix & CPPI (cont’d) In a rising market, the CPPI strategy
outperforms constant mix In a declining market, the CPPI strategy
outperforms constant mix In a flat market, neither strategy has an
obvious advantage In a volatile market, the constant mix
strategy outperforms CPPI
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Relative Performance of Constant Mix & CPPI (cont’d) The relative performance of the
strategies depends on the performance of the market during the evaluation period
In the long run, the market will probably rise, which favors CPPI
In the short run, the market will be volatile, which favors constant mix
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Rebalancing Within the Equity Portfolio Constant proportion Constant beta Change the portfolio components Indexing
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Constant Proportion A constant proportion strategy within
an equity portfolio requires maintaining the same percentage investment in each stockMay be mitigated by avoidance of odd lot
transactions
Constant proportion rebalancing requires selling winners and buying losers
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Constant Proportion (cont’d)
Example
A portfolio of three stocks attempts to invest approximately one third of funds in each of the stocks. Consider the following information:
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Stock Price Shares Value % of Total Portfolio
FC 22.00 400 8,800 31.15
HG 13.50 700 9,450 33.45
YH 50.00 200 10,000 35.40
Total Rs28,250
100.00
Constant Proportion (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
After one quarter, the portfolio values are as shown below. Recommend specific actions to rebalance the portfolio in order to maintain the constant proportion in each stock.
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Stock Price Shares Value % of Total Portfolio
FC 20.00 400 8,000 21.92
HG 15.00 700 10,500 28.77
YH 90.00 200 18,000 49.32
Total Rs36,500 100.00
Constant Proportion (cont’d)
Example (cont’d)
Solution: The worksheet below shows a possible revision which requires an additional investment of Rs1,000:
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Stock Price SharesValue Before Action
Value After
% of Portfolio
FC 20.00 400 8,000 Buy 200 12,000 32.00
HG 15.00 700 10,500 Buy 100 12,000 32.00
YH 90.00 200 18,000 Sell 50 13,500 36.00
Total Rs36,500 Rs37,500 100.00
Constant Beta Portfolio A constant beta portfolio requires
maintaining the same portfolio beta To increase or reduce the portfolio beta,
the portfolio manager can:Reduce or increase the amount of cash in the
portfolioPurchase stocks with higher or lower betas than
the target figureSell high- or low-beta stocksBuy high- or low-beta stocks
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Change the Portfolio Components Changing the portfolio components is
another portfolio revision alternative Events sometimes deviate from what the
manager expects:The manager might sell an investment
turned sourThe manager might purchase a potentially
undervalued replacement security
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Indexing Indexing is a form of portfolio management
that attempts to mirror the performance of a market indexE.g., the S&P 500 or the DJIA
Index funds eliminate concerns about outperforming the market
The tracking error refers to the extent to which a portfolio deviates from its intended behavior
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Costs of Revision
Introduction Trading fees Market impact Management time Tax implications Window dressing Rising importance of trading fees
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Introduction
Costs of revising a portfolio can:Be direct Rs costsResult from the consumption of
management timeStem from tax liabilitiesResult from unnecessary trading activity
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Trading Fees
Commissions Transfer taxes
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Commissions
Investors pay commissions both to buy and to sell shares
Commissions at a brokerage firm are a function of:The Rs value of the tradeThe number of shares involved in the trade
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Commissions (cont’d) The commission on a trade is split
between the broker and the firm for which the broker worksBrokers with a high level of production keep
a higher percentage than a new broker
Some brokers discount their commissions with their more active clients
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Commissions (cont’d)
Discount brokerage firms:Offer substantially reduce commission ratesOffer few ancillary services, such as market
research
Retail commissions at a full-service firm average about 2 percent of the stock value
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Transfer Taxes
Transfer taxes are:Imposed by some states on the transfer of
securities
Usually very modest
Not normally a material consideration in the portfolio management process
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Market Impact The market impact of placing the trade
is the change in market price purely because of executing the trade
Market impact is a real cost of trading
Market impact is especially pronounced for shares with modest daily trading volume
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Management Time
Most portfolio managers handle more than one account
Rebalancing several dozen portfolios is time consuming
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Tax Implications
Individual investors and corporate clients must pay taxes on the realized capital gains associated with the sale of a security
Tax implications are usually not a concern for tax-exempt organizations
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Window Dressing
Window dressing refers to cosmetic changes made to a portfolio near the end of a reporting period
Portfolio managers may sell losing stocks at the end of the period to avoid showing them on their fund balance sheets
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Rising Importance of Trading Fees Flippancy regarding commission costs is
unethical and sometimes illegal
Trading fees are receiving increased attention because of:Investment banking scandalsLawsuits regarding churningIncomplete prospectus information
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Contributions to the Portfolio Periodic additional contributions to the
portfolio from internal or external sources must be invested
Dividends:May be automatically reinvested by the fund
manager’s brokerMay have to be invested in a money market
account by the fund manager
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When Do You Sell Stock? Introduction Rebalancing Upgrading Sale of stock via stop orders Extraordinary events Final thoughts
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Introduction
Knowing when to sell a stock is a very difficult part of investing
Behavioral evidence suggests the typical investor sells winners too soon and keeps losers too long
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Rebalancing
Rebalancing can cause the portfolio manager to sell shares even if they are not doing poorly
Profit taking with winners is a logical consequence of portfolio rebalancing
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Upgrading
Investors should sell shares when their investment potential has deteriorated to the extent that they no longer merit a place in the portfolio
It is difficult to take a loss, but it is worse to let the losses grow
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Sale of Stock Via Stop Orders Definition Using stops to minimize losses Using stops to protect profits
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Definition
Stop orders:Are sell stops
Become a market order to sell a set number of shares if shares trade at the stop price
Can be used to minimize losses or to protect a profit
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Using Stops to Minimize Losses Stop-loss orders can be used to
minimize lossesE.g., you bought a share for Rs23 and want
to sell it if it falls below Rs18○ Place a stop-loss order for Rs18
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Using Stops to Protect Profits Stop orders can be used to protect
profitsE.g., a stock you bought for Rs33 now
trades for Rs48 and you want to protect the profits at Rs45○ If the stock retreats to Rs45, you lock in the
profit if you place a stop order
○ If the stock continues to increase, you can use a crawling stop to increase the stop price
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Extraordinary Events
Change in client objectives Change in market conditions Buy-outs Caprice
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Change in Client Objectives The client’s investment objectives may
change occasionally:E.g., a church needs to generate funds for a
renovation and changes the objective for the endowment fund from growth of income to income○ Reduce the equity component of the portfolio
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Change in Market Conditions Many fund managers seek to actively
time the market
When a portfolio manager’s outlook becomes bearish, he may reduce his equity holdings
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Buy-Outs
A firm may be making a tender offer for one of the funds holdingsI.e., another firm wants to acquire the fund
holding
It is generally in the client’s best interest to sell the stock to the potential acquirer
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Caprice
Portfolio managers:Should be careful about making
unnecessary tradesMust pay attention to their experience,
intuition, and professional judgment
An experienced portfolio manager worried about a particular holding should probably make a change
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Final Thoughts Hindsight is an inappropriate
perspective for investment decision makingEverything you do as a portfolio manager
must be logically justifiable at the time you do it
Portfolio managers are torn between minimizing losses and the potential for price appreciation
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