post-election analysis of nea’s 2008 campaign communications among members

November 21, 2008

Michael BocianPrincipal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |

April 19, 2023

Four Key Strategic Decisions That Guided Our Work


April 19, 2023

Key Strategic Decision #1

Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were

slugging it out

4 more years of George Bush

Out of touch with economic challenges

Out of touch with public schools


April 19, 2023


Introduce Obama in the summer with

heavy bio elements

Tackle questions of race, religion and patriotism

Use parental involvement to

establish values


April 19, 2023


Center our message on the

economy and the middle class

Middle class tax cuts vs. tax breaks

for millionaires

McCain tax on employer

sponsored health care

Incentives to create jobs in America


April 19, 2023


Be more targeted in choosing which states to play in and which

members/households to communicate with


April 19, 2023

The Record


April 19, 2023

Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS

4657 53

62 5766

5665

4638 41

36 35 32 32 32

0

20

40

60

80

Spring2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Ohio Pennsylvania Florida North Carolina

+12

+26

0

+22+19

+34+24

+33


April 19, 2023


5763

5664 60

7261 65 66 69

33 33 31 32 30 26 30 33 28 29

0

20

40

60

80

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Nevada Michigan Iowa New Mexico

+24+30

+25+32

+30

+46

+31 +32 +38 +40

Virginia


April 19, 2023


6674

69 70 69 72 72 75 75 74

25 2227 29 25 25 22 23 20 23

0

20

40

60

80

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Colorado Missouri MinnesotaNew

Hampshire

+41+52

+42 +41 +44+47 +55 +51

Oregon

+50 +52


April 19, 2023

Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS

3945 48

5851 54 54 57

50 46 41 39 42 44 42 41

0

20

40

60

80

Spring2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Ohio Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania

-11 -1 +7 +19 +9 +10 +12 +16


April 19, 2023


51 54 56 53 55 55 5765

38 37 40 4437 41 38 33

0

20

40

60

80

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Michigan Missouri Virginia Florida

+13+17 +16 +9

+18 +14 +19+32


April 19, 2023


60 60 59 57 61 60 61 60

36 38 3440 35 37 32 36

0

20

40

60

80

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Summer2008

Nov2008

Obama McCain

Colorado Iowa Minnesota New Hampshire

+24 +22 +25 +17 +26 +23 +29 +24


April 19, 2023

Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS

5057 58 62 59 64 61 63

4938 42

36 4032 37 33

0

20

40

60

80

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Democrat Republican

Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan Nevada

+24 +30+19+32

+16 +26+1

+19


April 19, 2023

64 6671 72 72 75 74 74

35 32 29 26 27 23 26 25

0

20

40

60

80

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Kerry2004

Obama2008

Democrat Republican

Florida Iowa New Hampshire Minnesota

Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS

+29 +34 +42 +46 +45 +52 +48 +49


April 19, 2023

5566

55 5864

72 72 71 7079

4132

3726

3326 24 28

20 200

20

40

60

80

MerkleyJune 08

MerkleyNovember

08

FrankenJune 08

FrankenNovember

08

T. UdallJune 08

T. UdallNovember

08

ShaheenJune 08

ShaheenNovember

08

M. UdallJune 08

M. UdallNovember

08

Democrat Republican

Colorado Senate

Minnesota Senate

New Hampshire

Senate

New MexicoSenate

Senate Races MEMBERS

+18+31

+48 +50+32

+46 +43+59

OregonSenate

+14

+34


April 19, 2023

46 46

5863 64 63

50

37 33 35 3137

0

20

40

60

80

Franken June08

FrankenNovember 08

M. Udall June08

M. UdallNovember 08

ShaheenJune 08

ShaheenNovember 08

Democrat Republican

Colorado Senate

Minnesota Senate

New Hampshire Senate

Senate Races HOUSEHOLDS

-4 +25+33+9 +28 +26


April 19, 2023

77 7868 70

49

70

1722 25 28

46

28

0

20

40

60

80

Nixon June08

NixonNovember 08

Perdue June08

PerdueNovember 08

Hagan June08

HaganNovember 08

Democrat Republican

North CarolinaGubernatorial

Missouri Gubernatorial

North CarolinaSenate

Governors Races/North Carolina MEMBERS

+60+43

+3

+56+42

+42


April 19, 2023

66 6256 58

4653

2836 37 40

47 45

0

20

40

60

80

Nixon June08

NixonNovember 08

Perdue June08

PerdueNovember 08

Hagan June08

HaganNovember 08

Democrat Republican

North CarolinaGubernatorial

Missouri Gubernatorial

North CarolinaSenate

Governors Races/North Carolina HOUSEHOLDS

+38+19 -1

+26+18 +8


April 19, 2023

Huge Improvement on Oregon Ballot Measures

72

39

95

81

86

68

20

32

14

33

12

13

21

64

33

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

Nov 08

June 08

Nov 08

June 08

Nov 08

June 08

Nov 08

June 08YesNo

Now I would like to ask you about the Oregon ballot Initiatives. Did you vote yes, in favor of the measure, or no to oppose it?

Measure 56: Provides that May and November property tax elections are decided by a majority of voters voting

Measure 58: Prohibits teaching public school student in language other than English for more than two years.

Measure 60: Teacher Classroom Performance, Not Seniority, Determines Pay Raises; Most Qualified Teachers Retained, Regardless of Seniority

Measure 64: Penalizes Person, Entity For Using Funds Collected With Public Resource For Political Purpose

+1

+44

-47

-73

-69

-91

-6

-58


April 19, 2023

19

68

10

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

Yes No Yes No

Let me ask about Amendment 49, also known as Colorado Limitation on Public Payroll Deductions. Did you vote YES to enact this amendment or NO to reject this amendment, or did you not vote on this amendment?

Let me ask about Amendment 54, also known as Campaign Contributions from Certain Government Contractors. Did you vote YES to enact this initiative or NO to reject this initiative, or did you not vote on this amendment?

Post Colorado Ballot Measures - Members


April 19, 2023

The Decision Process – Targeted Members/Households


April 19, 2023

4133

0

10

20

30

40

50

NEA Members Nation*

How Persuadable were Our Targets?Percentage among Barack Obama supporters who said they considered voting for John McCain

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey


April 19, 2023

3429

0

10

20

30

40

50

NEA Members Nation*

How Persuadable were Our Targets?Percentage among John McCain supporters who said they considered voting for Barack Obama

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey


April 19, 2023

84

65

2490

20

40

60

80

100

FOR BarackObama

AGAINST JohnMcCain

FOR John McCain AGAINST BarackObama

Obama Voters Cast an Affirmative VoteIn the election for President did you mainly vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST John McCain?

In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR John McCain or AGAINST Barack Obama?

Obama Voters McCain Voters


April 19, 2023

The Issue and Messages – Targeted Members/Households


April 19, 2023

Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that people have. Please tell me which ONE of these you think the President and Congress should be paying the most attention to.

3

6

5

8

14

12

39

1

0 20 40 60

Illegal immigration

Energy and gas prices

Taxes

Health care

Education

Terrorism and national security

The war in Iraq

The economy and jobs

Top concern Second concern

Economic Concerns Dominate

59

27

25

20

17

16

12

4


April 19, 2023

11

12

12

18

27

29

0 10 20 30 40

Health care

Iraq

Personal qualities

Education

Economy/Middle class

Change/Vision

Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR Barack Obama?

Change, Economy-Middle Class Drove Obama’s Support

Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.


April 19, 2023

8

10

8

8

15

17

5

0 10 20 30 40

He will invest in alternative energy

He will work to increase parental responsibility andinvolvement in schools

He will better handle the financial crisis

He will increase education funding

He will expand health care coverage

He will provide tax cuts to the middle class

He will change No Child Left Behind

Top concern Second choice

Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote for Barack Obama?

Economic & Education Specifics Stood Out for Obama

27

26

20

19

18

15

13


April 19, 2023

5

6

10

13

13

30

0 10 20 30 40

Health care

Education

Too old

Economy/financial crisis/sides withmillionaires/big biz

Iraq

Bush/won't bring change

And what was the biggest concern you had about John McCain?

Desire for Change Drove McCain Concerns



April 19, 2023

4

6

9

10

8

13

18

2

0 10 20 30 40

He voted against increasing the minimum wage

He voted against children's health insurance

He voted to cut education funding

His health care plan would tax people with employersponsored health care

He supported paying teachers based on student testscores

He won't reform No Child Left Behind

He voted for tax breaks for millionaires instead of themiddle class

He would continue Bush's economic policies

Top concern Second choice

Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote against John McCain?

Economic Specifics Stood Out About McCain

27

25

20

18

18

12

9

4


April 19, 2023

12

14

16

18

28

0 10 20 30 40

Econ/Taxes

Pro-life

Iraq/Security/Foreignpolicy

Personal qualities(trustworthy, values)

Experience/militarybackground

Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR John McCain?

Experience Powered McCain’s Support



April 19, 2023

10

15

17

17

31

0 10 20 30 40

Abortion

Taxes/economy

Liberal/spread the wealth

Religion/Wright/Ayers/patriotism/race

Lack of experience

And what was the biggest concern you had about Barack Obama?

Experience Main Question About Obama



April 19, 2023

Means of Communication – Targeted Members/Households


April 19, 2023

7

22

45

86

0 20 40 60 80 100

Face-to-face

Receive e-mails

Receive phone calls

Received mail

Do you remember receiving any mail/phone calls/e-mails/visits from representatives of the state affiliate or the National Education Association about the election for President or other offices?

Penetration of NEA Communications


April 19, 2023

12

22 21

27

0

10

20

30

40

A few pieces About 4 or 5 pieces 6 to 10 pieces 10 or more pieces

How much mail would you say you received from the state NEA or National Education Association? Did you receive just a few pieces, about four or five pieces, six to ten pieces, or ten or more pieces of mail from the state NEA or National Education Association?

Nearly Half of Targeted Homes Recalled More Than 5 Mail Pieces


April 19, 2023

26

10

0

10

20

30

40

Colorado All States

Do you remember any representatives of the state NEA or the National Education Association speaking at meetings or visiting your work place to discuss the election for President or other offices?

Colorado Face-to-Face Program Noteworthy

*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”


April 19, 2023

10

84

320

20

40

60

80

100

Yes, for state NEA Yes, for a candidate Yes, Other No

Most people don't have the time to volunteer in elections. How about you? Did you participate as a volunteer in this year's elections for an organization or an individual candidate?

Volunteer Activities Mostly for Candidates, Not Union

*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”


April 19, 2023

Lessons Learned – What We Did Well

Better targeting — Pulled out of states that were becoming non-competitive — Delivered more communications to the persuadable members with modeling— Turnout optimization modeling

Important sequencing – defined McCain at the right time, introduced Obama at the right time, offered a contrast at the right time

Delivered a message that fit into the candidate’s narrative

Offered a real narrative with compelling visuals and creative ideas, rather than a list of issue positions

Innovative new ideas (e.g., creative websites)


April 19, 2023

Lessons Learned – What We Can Do Better

More fully develop our face-to-face program and learn from best practices

Better understand how to communicate with households


April 19, 2023

www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC

10 G Street NE,

Suite 500

Washington, DC 20002

Ph: +1 202 478 8300

Fax: +1 202 478 8301

California

388 Market Street,

Suite 860

San Francisco, CA 94111

Ph: +1 415 986 9100

Fax: +1 415 986 9101

London, UK

405 Carrington House,

6 Hertford Street

London, UK W1J 7SU

Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204

Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284

post-election analysis of nea’s 2008 campaign communications among members

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