Post-Election Report: Argentina

Por Natalia C. Del Cogliano y Mariana L. Prats

Publicado en el blog “The Monkey Cage” (31/10/2011)

The fact that this report could largely have been written two months ago right after

primaries were held is a reality we cannot avoid. Is uncertainty in results a

necessary condition for elections in a democratic context? It seems not. Besides

the unhappy claims of the opposition saying that there has been fraud in the

primary elections, the final results provided by the National Judicial Power rejected

such a possibility. And the citizens of Argentina reconfirmed it on Sunday, October

23.

In August, the primaries resulted in a difference of 8.150.000 votes (38.04%)

between current President (Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Frente para la

Victoria) and the runner-up candidate Ricardo Alfonsín (Unión Cívica

Radical/Unión para el Desarrollo Social) a difference that was not easy for the

opposition to accept as having occurred legitimately. Consequently, some claims of

fraud emerged from among the opposition, but even then the claimed fraud was

not at level that would be likely to change the eventual outcome of the election.

Instead, the message the opposition took from the primaries was, in the words of

Gabriel Garcia Marquez “the chronicle of a death foretold”. With such a result, the

country was almost fully painted dark blue (the color of the ruling party: Frente para

la Victoria).

Source: Blog of Andy Tow

Here are the actual results from the election, compared to the results from the

August primary:

Source: National Electoral Office Ministry of the Interior

After August everyone predicted that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

(CFK) was going to win the general election by an enormous margin, there would

be no runoff, and Hermes Binner would finish in second place. That is, the 2nd and

3rd places candidates would fall behind Binner who had come in 4th place in the

primary. And this is what really happened.

It is also worth noting that this is the first time in the electoral history of our country

a socialist candidate for president obtained more than 10% of the vote. Hence, the

President’ closer challenger was a former socialist governor who was allied with

different small progressive forces, seeming to emerge as the main opposition front.

Today Frente Amplio Progresista looks like a very well positioned force for future

elections (something remarkable if we consider that these were the first elections in

which the front contended).

Related to that, a noteworthy fact is that the first and second places were obtained

by political forces that seem to occupy and demand for themselves the center-left

position in the ideological spectrum. Also, for the fourth time in history, the Unión

Cívica Radical Party, the eldest modern political party in our country, was clearly

shifted from its second place.

The electoral results this last Sunday were historical; the president obtained the

highest number of votes since the re-democratization process in 1983 when former

president Raúl Alfonsín got 51.7% of the votes. Moreover, considering the 18

elections held since 1916, President CFK is now third in the podium, only

surpassed by Yrigoyen (1928) and Perón (1951, 1973).

Cristina F. de Kirchner obtained the 53.96% of the votes, Hermes Binner 16.87%,

Ricardo Alfonsín 11.15%, and the remaining four candidates summed 18.02%

altogether. Hence, there has been a difference of 7.968.505 votes, that is, a

37.09% between first and second places. Such gap is the second highest since

1916. Compared to the previous four widest winning margins registered in our

electoral history, CFK could not break Peron’ mark in the elections of September

1973:

As recently as two years ago, CFK had seemed a long shot to win a second four-

year term. On 2009 a heated dispute over agricultural export taxes sent her

approval ratings below 30 percent. But as the New York Times noted, Mrs.

Kirchner, who succeeded her husband, Néstor Kirchner in 2007, to become the

country’s first female president, made a more than a remarkable comeback, being

the first female president reelected.

Besides, it is interesting to observe that although this is now CFK’s second term in

office, this overwhelming victory may correspond to a third term, bearing in mind

that the first was her husband’s tem in 2003. As we all know, time and political

power usually don’t get on very well. But her husband, former president Nestor

Kirchner, won the 2003 presidential elections only with 22.24% of the votes and

eight years since then CFK gets a 53.96%, placing herself as one of the most

powerful and widely supported presidents. No doubt can be cast on the fact that

this landslide victory represented the clear consolidation of her political leadership.

Apart from novel technical aspects introduced by the new electoral reform (Law

26.571) such as a unique electoral register and ballots containing photos of

candidates, the homogeneity of the vote across the whole country is another

interesting piece of information. President CFK won in every province (every

electoral district), but one: San Luis, ensuring herself the majority in both national

legislative chambers. What’s more, the ruling party, CFK’s party, won seven out of

eight governorships this Sunday and even in provinces historically opposed to her

and her party.

All in all, it cannot be denied that these elections have propelled CFK as one of the

nation’ most popular leaders in recent history. In the context of recent times of

popular political disenchantment, this election—such an overwhelming victory—

make us wonder whether that mood is being replaced by a different political spirit.

Natalia Cecilia Del Cogliano                 Candidata a Doctora en Ciencia Política por la Universidad Nacional de San Martín (UNSAM) y Licenciada en Ciencia Política por la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA). Actualmente es miembro investigador del Centro de Estudios Federales y Electorales (CEFE), de la Escuela de Política y Gobierno de la UNSAM; y docente de la materia Sistemas Políticos Comparados en la carrera de Ciencia Política de la UBA. Asimismo, ha trabajado como asistente de investigaciones en la Dirección de Investigaciones del Instituto Nacional de Administración Pública, y actualmente se desempeña como asesora en la Dirección de Comunicación Estratégica de la Secretaría de Comunicación Pública de la Nación.

Mariana L. PratsCandidata a Doctora en Ciencias Sociales por la Universidad de Buenos Aires, maestraenda en Ciencia Política en la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella y licenciada en Ciencia Política de la Universidad de Buenos Aires. Actualmente es becaria doctoral del CONICET, investigadora y docente en las materias Sistemas Políticos Comparados (en la carrera de Ciencia Política) y Teoría del Estado (en la carrera de Abogacía) en la UBA. Fue asesora en el Ministerio de Defensa y enlace por ese ministerio con la Cancillería argentina y ha trabajado como asistente de investigación para proyectos en universidades nacionales y extranjeras.