post-petroleum energetics and sea water agriculture, with dennis bushnell
TRANSCRIPT
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Precis of Post-Petroleum EnergeticsIncluding Seawater
Agriculture
Dennis Bushnell
Chief ScientistNASA Langley Research Center
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The (Economic) Ages of
Humankind Hunter/Killer groups (~1 Million - ~5K BC)
Agriculture (~5K BC - ~1850 AD) Industrial (~1850 AD - ~1950 AD)
Information/BIO/NANO(~1950 AD - ~2030
AD) Virtual (~2030 - ?)
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Hunter-Gatherer - Nature Provided
Agriculture - Controlled Nature(Plants/Animals)
Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture
[1800-97% Farmers,Now-2%]
IT/BIO/Nano - Automating
Industry/AgricultureVirtual - Robotization of
IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture
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Humans Have Taken Over and Vastly
Shortened Evolution
[Human Engendered~E7 times Natural]Of the Planet
Global Warming/Pollution/Deforestation
Huge Public Works (e.g. 3 GorgesDam)
Of the Human Species
Genomic Design and Repair
Mind Children (Moravec)
Products/Life Forms
Cross Species Molecular Breeding
Directed Evolution (Maxygen etc.)
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Human Environment changing from
Natural [before],to Manmade [Now]
To VIRTUAL [Evolving Future]
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- CO2 levels are NOW greater
than at any time in the last650,000 Years
- Tundra Melting,Releasinghuge amounts of Methane.- European Gulf Stream
Heating reduced by 30%[overlying fresh water from
melting glaciers?].
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Prevention of collapse of theEcosystem has now become
the overwhelming issue
European Commission on KeyTechnologies for Europe,2005
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Rational[s] for Going Green
Escalating Price of Petroleum
Warming [ Including Acidic
Oceans]
National Security/Geo-Politics
Economics/ Balance of Payments
Personal Economics/Independence
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THE KEY TECHNOLOGIESTHE KEY TECHNOLOGIES(highly synergistic / at the frontiers of the small / in a
feeding frenzy off each other)
IT (comms/computing/sensors/electronics/machine
intelligence)
Bio (genomics/molecular biology/designer life forms)
Nano (coatings/barriers/computers/sensors/materials/
assemblers)
Energetics (HEDM (various)/revol.
solar/biomass/explosives/propellants/storage)
Quantum
[crypto/computing/sensors/optics/Electronics]
Societal Technological Systems (motivational
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The [Major] Societal Problems
Warming [Anthropogenic CO2-Induced,Attendant Arctic and Ocean MethaneRelease]
Consequent Green EnergyConsequent Green EnergyRequirementRequirement, Simultaneous Demise ofCheap Oil
Shortages of Water & Arable Land An Increasing Food Shortage
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Current Worldwide Energy Usage
Petroleum - 140 Exojoules Natural Gas - 85
Coal - 90
Biomass - 55 [ Potential to 4,000+ ]
Nuclear Fission - 28 Hydroelectric - 9
Geothermal - 2 [ potential to 5,000 ]
Solar - .2 [ Potential to 1,600+ ] Others [Wind, etc.] - ~7
P t l [T t ti
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Petroleum [TransportationFuel] Outlook
In General,Cheap Oil Production is peakingor has peaked.Residual supplies will havegreater production costs.IncreasingPetroleum demand,particularly from the
developing world ,will ensure ever increasingoil prices and shifts,from purely economicdrivers, to Alternatives [H2,Biomass]
Demand Example - U.S. has 745 vehicles per
1,000 population.China,the second largest oilimporter, has 3 vehicles per 1,000population.If China goes to 5 Vehicles per1,000 Population they will have to DOUBLE
their Oil Imports to 10 Million Barrels/Day
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Energy and Warming 75% of Energy Usage is releasing climate-
changing amounts of Fossil Carbon asCO2
This Fossil CO2 warming is releasingFossil Methane from the Tundra andseabeds,Methane some 22X more of awarming gas than CO2,A WarmingAccelerant
Of the Renewables,only Solar [viaBiomass and Other Approaches] has thepotential to provide the requisiteCapacity [Wind,Hydro,Conv. Nuccannot.]
Biomass Produces Liquid Fuels and isless expensive than other Solar
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[Direct] Solar EnergyUtilization Spectrum
Biomass
PV [emerging Plastic/Nano PV,1/10th thecost., to 70% efficiency?]
H2 from Photosynthesis [GenomicBiologics and artificial Photosynthesis]
Photo-Catalytic Disassociation of Water
Solar Furnaces/Concentrators/Direct
Heating [including Zn production for H2Storage/ Generation..]
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Biomass Benefits
Renewable Nearly CO2-Neutral
No New H2 infrastructure Required
Minimal Sulfur Relatively Inexpensive
Energy costs of biomassproduction/Processing up to an order of
magnitude less than Energy Yields- Capacity/Tonnage Currently limited by
sweet water and arable land
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Bio-Refineries
Bio-Chemical,EnzymaticBio-Chemical,EnzymaticHydrolysis/Fermentation of BiomassHydrolysis/Fermentation of Biomassinto Sugars,Lignin,alcohol and Methaneinto Sugars,Lignin,alcohol and Methane
Thermochemical,Pyrolysis/gasification,
Conversion to gas/liquid/solid mix,catalysisproducing Biopolymers and Liquid orGaseous Fuels
Chemical,Biomass Oil conversion toBioDiesel etc. fuels
- Due to costs of Biomass transportation, Bio-refineries should be Distributed/Scalable,Products largely delivered/deliverable viaPipelines
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Sampling - BiomassUtilization Archipelago
Transportation/Liquid Fuels [Distill/Refineit]
Direct Heat Generation [Burn it]
Direct Electricity Generation [Bio FuelCells]
Food [via Genomics]
Petro-Chemical Feed-Stock [Plastics etc.] Direct H2 Production [e.g.
Fermentation/Algae feeding]
On Site Micro-Power/Co-[electricity]
Generation
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Biomass Energy Potential[s]
6% of U.S. land mass producingBiomass could supply the U.S. with
current Oil AND Natural Gas Usage Estimates indicate that Biomass
grown on the Sahara [only] could
supply the Worlds EnergyRequirement[s]
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Water Scarcity is now thesingle greatest threat to
Human Health,The
Environment and the Global
Food Supply
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The Emerging Desert MantraThe Emerging Desert Mantra[Some 44% of land worldwide is
Wasteland] Desert Area Characteristics
- Sunlight
- Brackish/Saline Ground Water
- Many near/on seacoasts
Utilize these Resources For:
- Nano-Plastic PV
- Saline-Seawater Agriculture forBiomass/Energy and Food
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Conventional/Historical Wisdom -Seawater/Saline
incursions/occurance Detrimental-to-Disasterous for Agriculture
Unconventional -Saline/Salt water
Agriculture a Viable-to-Desirable Alternative to
Conventional
Agriculture
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Saline/Seawater Agriculture
Quasi-Conventional:- For Food & Fodder
- Reclaim/Desalinate land via Biologics
Unconventional- For
Land,Water,Energy,Warming,Minerals,Food and Terra-Forming/enhancedRainfall i.e. STRATEGIC Not Tactical,to Contribute to ALL the MajorProblems,not just food
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Advantages of Seawater AG
97% of all water is seawater,will not Run Out
Seawater Contains:- wide variety of important minerals
- ~ 80% of Nutrients required for Agriculture[need to add Nitrogen,Phosphorus and Iron]
In proximity to a number of Dry/DesertAreas
Mi l E t ti f
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Mineral Extraction fromSeawater
- [Conventional] mining is one of the mostenvironmentally damaging activities carriedout by Humans
Seawater AG puts missing/trace Minerals
back into Food Supply Current Seawater Mineral Extraction -Current Seawater Mineral Extraction -Magnesium,Bromide,Salts,Phosphorites,Magnesium,Bromide,Salts,Phosphorites,Metallic Sulfides,Metallic Sulfides,
Seawater and Brines appear destined toreplace Mineral Ores as the main source ofLight Metals
Nascent [low cost/energy] Bio/Algae
Extraction Approaches.
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Alternative Seawater AGEmployment Approaches
Desalinization [in General,tooexpensive for Agriculture]
Cold/deeper Ocean water to [via heatexchangers] precipitate moisture fromthe atmosphere
Seawater Greenhouses [involvevaporization/re-precipitation]
Direct Plant Seawater Irrigation
S N b
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Some Numbers Sahara some 2E9 (2 billion) Acres
1.2 Acre Meters Required for Agriculture/Irrigation
[per year] Average Sahara Elevation some 450 Meters
~ cost to pump 1.2 acre meters of Seawater to 450Meters altitude [vertical lift only] some $1200/Acre
1 Acre produces 10-to-40 tons of dry Biomass peryear
I Ton of dry Biomass provides 16E6 BTUs = 2.75Barrels of Oil
@ $60/Barrel of oil,1 ton of Biomass worth [afterrefining] ~ $165 [other estimates,which includeAddit. Goodness factors [e.g. countering warming]are as high as $300-$700/ton]
@ 20 Tons/Acre and $165/ton Value of an Acre of@ 20 Tons/Acre and $165/ton Value of an Acre of
Biomass = $~3300Biomass = $~3300
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Irrigation Influences UponRainfall
Irrigation can Represent an EnormousPerturbation of the Regional AtmosphericWater and Heat Balance
Cool,Wet Surface increases low levelAtmospheric Instabilities,incites Storms
Various Studies Indicate -
- 18%-25% precipitation Increase [from only .4
acre meter Irrigation]- Irrigation increased Rainfall by 91%
- Irrigation and Vegetation changes areclear dominating factors with direct
influence upon atmospheric water content
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Halophyte [Salt-Plant]Utilization [Per Yensen]
Patents issued for Halophyte Crop[s][Genetics,Genomics]
10,000+ Natural Halophyte Plants,250 ofthese are potential Staple crops
Research ongoing on/for Halophilic [Salt-LOVING] Halophytes,The more salt thefaster the growth
Huge areas worldwide are already salt-affected [1 B Hectares] and another BillionHectares overlie Saline Aquifers.
Over 100 halophyte plants now in trials
for Commercial applications
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[Sample] Countries withSaline AG projects
China
Mexico
Eritria
India Pakistan
Israel
Libya
Jordan Tunisia
- Current Status,PrototypeFarms/Experiments forFOOD
Egypt
Iran
Morocco
U.S. Saudi Arabia
Syria
UAE
Kuwait Australia
Sudan
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Chinese Seawater AGChinese Seawater AG
ReportingReporting Genetically Modified [grown on Beaches
using Seawater]:
- Tomato- Eggplant
- Pepper
- Wheat- Rice
- Rapeseed
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The Potential[s] for enhanced
[Halophyte] Plant Growth viaNano/Bio Technology thought
to be Large, 60%improvements thus far,Only Beginning
- An Example Requisite Capability -Nitrogen Fixation
[utilization/extraction from the air]
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On-going Research Areas
Enhanced Plant growth rates andenhanced Salt-Loving
Reduced water/nutrient Requirements
Irrigation Efficiency Improvements
Plant /Lifeform tailoring for specific Bio-Conversion/Refining Processes
Safe/Contained Saline/SeawaterIrrigation Practices,Avoid-to-ObviateFresh Aquifer Contamination
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TerraForming -1
Altering a Planetary Surface to make itsuitable for Terrestrial life
Seawater AG for Biomass Energy can beof sufficient magnitude to qualify as Terra-Forming
Humans have long practiced Anti-Terraforming with neither plan nor
prediction It appears timely/necessary to attemptterraforming but with both Plan andPrediction
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[Obvious] Terraforming
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[Obvious] TerraformingModeling/Computation
Requirements/Inputs Irrigated Land Area
Type of Vegetation/Evaporation Rate
Vegetation Coverage Atmospheric Particulate details [allow
cloud formation at .1% super-saturation]
Utilization of both Boundary LayerMeteorology and Global Circulation/EarthSystem Models
ETC
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Bottom Line Enablers/Pull -Saline/Seawater Biomass
Irrigation Oil Prices now high enough [and going
higher] to make the economics worth looking
into [again] H2 Infrastructure Costs & Storage issues
Potential Halophyte Genomic improvements
Global Warming,Green Energy Requirements Increasing shortages of Sweet water/ArableLand
- Requires SERIOUS Forecasting
Advantages of Shallow Sea/Desert
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Advantages of Shallow Sea/DesertProduction of Biomass (Via Seawater
Irrigation - energy, warming, food,land,
water) Closed CO2 Cycle (Obviates GlobalWarming)
Food
Petro-chemical feedstock [plastics etc.] ENERGY
Terraforming, alter desertification etc.
Preservation/Production of Fresh Water Rich Mineral source (Seawater)
Utilization of Wastelands (Sahara, etc.)
Seawater has 85% of plant nutrients
Frontier Energetics
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Frontier Energetics(Production/Storage)
Biomass via saltwater agriculture
Solar H2 production
efficient visible light (vs. just ultraviolet)photocatalytic electrolysis of water
CNT H2 storage, Zeolite H2 storage Direct plant and bacteria H2 production
SMES/CNT magnets 2 to 20 X energy density of O2- H2 fuel (in a
battery) Efficient direct conversion (thermal to
electric), thermal diodes (~24%),Nano-Voids [~30%]
Advanced Geothermal
Frontier Energetics
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Frontier Energetics
(Production/Storage)
LENRS and nano-fusion (ala G. Miley,DOE/NAVY),Muon-Catalyzed Fusion
CNT Flywheels
Isomers/Quantum nucleonicsSeveral, ~105 X HE
Offshore methane hydrate
106 greater than known natural gasreserves
Hydrogen/Boron-11 Fusion - charged
particle/Direct conversion,Dense Plasma
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Aneutronic H-B11 FusionInertial Electrostatic Confinement Fusion
[QED,IEC,IEF] Produces Protons,Direct MHD
Electricity Generation vice [Neutron]
Thermalization Reduced Radiation Hazard[s]/Weight
High Thrust-to-weight AND High Isp [via
reduced shielding,magnetics,HighPower Drivers]
For SSTO,Payload Mass Fraction is ~14%,Launch Cost Estimate ~ $100/lb
Frontier Energetics
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Frontier Energetics
(Production/Storage) Femto-second laser/other production of
anti-matter/positrons
Bose-Einstein condensate/Positronium
storage of Positrons
HEDM (MIC, SBER, nano-powders, cold
silicon, solid H2, atomic C/B/H, cubanes,
metastable He,Etc) Bacteria-based fuel cells
Plastic Nano PV,factor of 10 cost
reduction,2X Efficiency [Nanocrystals]
Antimatter Fuels/Propulsion
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Antimatter Fuels/PropulsionApproaches
Positrons - Stored asPositronium?,Gamma emission used forheating,also - via direct conversioncould yield Electrical Energy for 2000Sec. Isp High Thrust MHD Acceleration,negligible fuel fraction
Trigger Fission at 100% [vice < 5%] for
fission nuc Propulsion Antihydrogen - Stored as Bose-Einstein
Condensate,Harvest from Van Allen
Belts
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W ld id IT R l ti
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Worldwide IT Revolution
Comms/Computing/Sensors/Electronics
Factor of E07 since 59 [Moores Law]
Factor of E08 to E12 further
improvement [Silicon,Molecular/CNT,
Quantum, Bio, Optical]
Beyond Human Machine Intelligence?
Automatics/Robotics in the large
Immersive multi-sensory VR/Holodecks
Ubiquitous multi physics/hyperspectral
sensors [land/sea/air/space]
IMPACTS OF ONGOING
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IMPACTS OF ONGOINGREVOLUTION UPON SOCIETY
Work (at home telecommuting, reduced local/corporal
travel) Shopping (at home web based, (robotic?) delivery)
Entertainment/leisure (at home immersive 3-Dinteractive/multi-sensory via VR/holographicprojection)
Travel (3-D/interactive/multi-sensory tele-travel)
Education (at home low cost asynchronous, web basedon-demand, highly motivational, life-long distancelearning, .edu)
Health (at home interactive tele-medicine)
Politics (increased real-time virtual involvement of thebody politic)
Commerce (tele-commerce already ubiquitous)
Tele-Socialization Tele - onsite Manufacturin
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SOME IT PREDICTIONS
Quantum computing initiallyavailable in 5 years
15% of all power today is used bycomputers, will reach 60% by 2020?
Wearable/implantable (on-person)electronics--comms, computing,sensory augmentation, healthmonitoring, brain stimulation
Global Warming Solutions
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Global Warming Solutions Green Energy
Conservation Genomic Biologics w/greatly increasedCO2 Uptake
Trigger Calderas [Nascent Volcanoes],Put
massive amounts of dust in theAtmosphere
Nano-Particulates spread on themonolayer of surfactant on the Oceans
Surface to alter Albedo Gigantic reflective films/membranes in
orbit
Seed Oceans with iron to provoke/enable
Phytoplankton Blooms
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Nominal Power Densities
ZPE..E108 X Chemical
Anti-Matter/Positrons.. E10 X Chemical
Fission/Fusion.. E6 X Chemical Isomers. E5 X Chemical
SBER E2 X Chemical
Hydrogen....38 KWH/Kg HC..14
Advanced Flywheels. .9 - 20?
Batteries.. . .04 - 10?
E ti Wild C d B i
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Energetics Wild Cards BeingWorked
Solitons for Low Divergence Power Beaming Positron Storage as Positronium
High Efficiency Plastic Nano PV
30%+ Thermo-Electrics High Efficiency [KW/KG] Fuel Cells
On-Site H2 Generation vice Storage [Zinc,.]
Room Temperature S-C
Tapping ZPE
Controlled Nuclear Isomer Release
SMES with CNT Magnets
Lithium Tantalate Crystals
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First-Order Impacts of Nano
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First Order Impacts of Nanoupon Energetics
[Improved Performance/Cost &Requirement Reductions] Fuel Cells
Photovoltaics H2 Storage [Casimir Forces?]
Supercapacitors Batteries
Structural dry weight reductions
[1/3rd-1/8th]
H d S
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Hydrogen Sources
Genomic Bio Photosynthesis Artificial Photosynthesis
Electrolysis:
- Direct visible light Photo-Catalysis
- Plastic Nano PV Energy- Bio Mass [Incl.Seawater Agric.] Energy
- Ocean Thermal,Wind Energy
- Usual Energy Sources [Hydro,Nuc,.] Reformation [JP,Methane,Ammonia.]
Coal Gasification[w/H20]
Sulfur-iodine Thermo-chemical Cycle[w/H2O]
H d St
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Hydrogen Storage Cryo [incl. Slush, Solid]
CNTs/Zeolites [Casimir ForceOptimization,Doping]] , CNT Structure
CNT Pressure Vessels,
Lithium Nitride,Graphite Nanofibers Ammonia,Ammonia Borane [PNNL]
Methane,Gas Hydrates
Porous Magnesium Alloys Titanium doped Hydrides
Glass/Polymer Microspheres
Metal/Organic Frameworks
[A ] O tl k f H2
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[An] Outlook for H2 Biologic H2 sources could provide a
Green H2 Supply H2 Infrastructure would take too long to
put in place [ compared towarming/petroleum problem[s] time
scales] and is exceedingly expensive Hydrogen Storage is still nascent, Nano
Tech including Casimir Force Engineeringcould help
- Bottom Line[s]Biofuel[s] [ usingexisting infrastructures] are/will be the
Green transportation fuel of choice.
Suggested Green Energy Best
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Suggested Green Energy BestBets/Ways Forward
Seawater Ag, Aquaculture - Biofuels
Nano Plastic PV
Advanced Geothermal
20%-30% Efficient Thermoelectrics[ Harvesting, cycle efficiency ]
SMES w/CNT Magnets [ 10X Chem storage?]
Positron storage as Positronium?BTW - Conventional Nuc Fission Fuel CycleWaste a Serious Problem [near term wastestorage approach is casks on an open
parking lot at an Indian Reservation]
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Physics Outlook/Issues
Quantum and Relativity do not Merge
They do not explain Dark Energy
They do not explain Dark Matter They do not provide an understanding
of Non-Locality
Where did the Anti-Matter Go?
Many other Unsolved Problems..
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E tant E planation Approaches
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Extant Explanation Approaches[Samples,Additional Degrees of Freedom,
Experimental Verification TBD..] Time Reversals/Retrocausation
Extra [Spatial] Dimensions
- Many Worlds/Multiverses- String/M/Brane Theories [ to 11 Dim.]
- 5 Dim. Larger Universe/ The Bulk
Larger Constructs
- Bohm Quantum Potential
- Holographic Universe
- Puthoff ZPAether
- The Bulk
What is Sought are
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What is Sought areExplanations for Dark
Matter/Energy and Non-LocalityEtc. which satisfy Occams
Razor.Once Found/Determined the
Ensuing/Enabled Technologies
should be SeriouslyRevolutionary,including wrt