Potential and Challenges of IG BasinPotential and Challenges of IG Basin

M. A. KhanM. A. Khan

Benchmark Basin Coordinator, IGBBenchmark Basin Coordinator, IGB

Basin Overview Basin Overview

� Basin Area : 225 million-ha

� Population (2001) : 747 million

� Percentage rural population (2001)

India : 74.5

Pakistan : 68

Bangladesh : 79.9

Nepal : 86

Percentage of population below poverty line (2000) : 30.5

Net cropped area : 114 million ha.

Water use in agriculture : 91.4%

•Low productivity (Rice-Wheat 4-5 t/ha) - low to medium potential

•Poor investment in infrastructure •Medium-high precipitation•High potential for cold water fisheries and livestock•Degradation of Land and water resources•Deficient human capital combined with high out-migration•Downstream environmental constraints•Low population density

•Low productivity (Rice-Wheat 4-5 t/ha) - low to medium potential

•Poor investment in infrastructure •Medium-high precipitation•High potential for cold water fisheries and livestock•Degradation of Land and water resources•Deficient human capital combined with high out-migration•Downstream environmental constraints•Low population density

•High Productivity (R-W: 8-12 t/ha) - Food surplus region •High investment in infrastructure•Major inputs of fertilizer and water•Low - Medium rainfall, Low per capita water availability•Over exploitation of ground water (>80 %)•Well developed irrigated network •Secondary salinization •Severe ground water quality hazards•Severe to moderate drought prone areas•In-migration of labour•Medium-high population density

•High Productivity (R-W: 8-12 t/ha) - Food surplus region •High investment in infrastructure•Major inputs of fertilizer and water•Low - Medium rainfall, Low per capita water availability•Over exploitation of ground water (>80 %)•Well developed irrigated network •Secondary salinization •Severe ground water quality hazards•Severe to moderate drought prone areas•In-migration of labour•Medium-high population density

•Low Productivity (4-8 t/ha) - Food deficit region•Low investment in infrastructure •Low inputs of fertilizer and water•Medium - High rainfall, More per capita water availability•Underutilization of ground water (< 20 %)•Very few developed irrigation network•Coastal salinity and sea water intrusion•Moderate water quality hazards•High risk of flooding, poor drainage and moderate drought•Out-migration of labour to other regions •High population density

•Low Productivity (4-8 t/ha) - Food deficit region•Low investment in infrastructure •Low inputs of fertilizer and water•Medium - High rainfall, More per capita water availability•Underutilization of ground water (< 20 %)•Very few developed irrigation network•Coastal salinity and sea water intrusion•Moderate water quality hazards•High risk of flooding, poor drainage and moderate drought•Out-migration of labour to other regions •High population density

Satellite imagery of Indo-Gangetic Basin

Nepal

Pakistan

India

Bangladesh

Percentage area distribution IGB - country-wise

India

52%

Pakistan

22%

Bangladesh

9%

Nepal

17%

CatchmentCatchment AreaArea--IGBIGB

86.132.1Catchment

area in India

(m ha)

108.6(China, Nepal,

India,

Bangladesh)

116.6(Tibet, India, Pak

and Afganistan)

Total area (m

ha)

25251114Length in

India (km)

Gangotri

(India)

Manasarovar

(Tibet)

Origin

GangesIndus

Source: Ministry Water Resources

Trend in cereal production in IGB countries

Trend in cropping intensity in IGB countries

Productivity trend of rice and wheat in IG Basin.

Water Resources PotentialWater Resources Potential

19512382Per Capita available water

(m3)

171.026.5Total replenishable Ground Water

resources (km3)

33.577.7Level of Ground Water

development (%)

250.046.0Estimated Utilizable flow

excluding Ground Water (km3)

523.073.3Average annual surface water

potential (km3)

GangesIndus

Water resources potential in the river basins of India

0

10 0

20 0

30 0

40 0

50 0

60 0

70 0

Average annual surface water po tential

(bcm)

Est imated ut ilis ab le flo w exclud ing

ground water (bcm)

To tal rep lemishab le g ro und water

reso urces (b cm)

Re

so

urc

e P

ote

nti

al (b

cm

)

Indus

Ganga

Brahmaputra

Ground water potential and the level of ground water development

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Total replenishable

ground w ater

resources

Available ground w ater

resources for irrigation

balance ground w ater

potential available for

exploitation

Level of ground w ater

development (%) Wa

ter

Re

so

urc

e P

ote

nti

al

(bcm

/ye

ar)

Indus

Ganga

State-wise development of ground water

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Haryana Punjab Uttar Pradesh Bihar West Bengal

States

Le

ve

l o

f g

rou

nd

wa

ter

de

ve

lop

me

nt

(%)

Flood Prone areas in IG Plains

Calorie availability in IGB countries

�� CPWF interventions in IndoCPWF interventions in Indo--Gangetic Basin to increase water Gangetic Basin to increase water

productivity is through 9 projects from first cycle of funding productivity is through 9 projects from first cycle of funding

and one project from second cycle operating in different part and one project from second cycle operating in different part

of the basin of which for 7 projects are in IGB as major basin of the basin of which for 7 projects are in IGB as major basin

and for 3 projects IGB is secondary basin.and for 3 projects IGB is secondary basin.

�� Apart from this there are three Small Grants projects aimed at Apart from this there are three Small Grants projects aimed at

dissemination of knowledge and ideas to increase water dissemination of knowledge and ideas to increase water

productivityproductivity

�� Basin Focal Project is approved for two years (2008Basin Focal Project is approved for two years (2008--09) laid 09) laid

by IWMI. by IWMI.

CPWF PROJECTS DURING PHASECPWF PROJECTS DURING PHASE--II

IGB-IWMI, ICAR, ILRI Research to quantify livestock use of, and

impact on, water resources in diverse

production systems.

68

IGB-IWMI-TATA, Gujarat; IDF,

Haryana

IDE, New

Delhi

Affordable Irrigation for Smallholder

farmers

SG-512

IGB-HPPI, New Delhi; IWMI, New

Delhi

HPPI, IndiaHarit Sankalp-Greening Alwar DistrictSG-508

IGB-IG—Western Hills of Nepal and

Deccan Plateau of Maharashtra,

IDE, NepalWater Control for Small Plot Farming

System

SG-507

IGB & MekongYellow

River

1IARI-WTCIRRIAerobic Rice16

Nile, Indus-

Ganges, Mekong,

Andean .Basin.

Limpopo2IWMI-India, IDE-IndiaIWMI-SAMultiple use systems28

Coastal Resource management for

improving livelihoods

Strategic analyses of river-linking

Groundwater Governance in IGB & YRB

basins

Community based fish culture

Improved fisheries in tropical reservoirs

Resources management for sustainable

livelihood

Improving productivity in salt affected

areas

Short Title

Mekong

IGB

IGB

IGB

IGB

IGB

IGB

Lead

Basin

IGB

Secondary Basin

1

5

4

3

3

2

1

Lead

Theme

BARC, BFRI-BangladeshIRRI10

GIDR-Gujrath, IRM-AnandIWMI-India48

IWMI-India, MoWR-Nepal,

WAPDA-Bangladesh

IWMI-India42

CIFRI, CIFA, BARCWorldFish

center

35

CIFRIICAR34

IWMI-India, Peoples’s Science

Institute-Uttaranchal, Institute of

water and human resource

development-Nepal

IWMI-

Nepal

23

CRRI, CSSRI, NDUAT, BRRI,

ICRISAT

IRRI7

Partners in IGBProject

Leader

PN

Approved Projects with IGB representation (PhaseApproved Projects with IGB representation (Phase--I)I)

Research Gaps during 1st Phase of Challenge Research Gaps during 1st Phase of Challenge

ProgramProgram

1) Research needed in wide range of crops other than rice.

2) Climate Change impacts in livelihoods especially in costal area.

3) System approach to deal with agricultural problems in a delineated geography.

Ganges Basin

The CPWF Phase 1 Ganges work suggests the following The CPWF Phase 1 Ganges work suggests the following

policy guidance demand:policy guidance demand:

� Institutional development for water governance, environmental and natural

resources management with a particular focus on the development of

institutional capacities for integrated water resources management.

� The development of integrated solutions to saline intrusion and management.

� Strategies for maintaining the sustainable groundwater exploitation.

� Methods for improving the agricultural productivity of flood plains.

� The development of instruments to enable negotiated water supply and

allocation be-tween the basin’s countries and states.

� Assessment and developing suitable model on climate vulnerability and

climate change and to suggest technologies to cop up with the situation due to

climate change.

Ganges Basin

Researchable Issues for Second Phase Researchable Issues for Second Phase

1) With increasing water congestion, how to provide livelihood options to poor landless based

innovation of traditional system of floating agriculture/aquaculture?

2) What would be the salinity front under climate change situation?

3) How the productivity of major crops like wheat in Rabi season can be improved?

4) How to improve the understanding of water congested agro-ecologies in the eastern Ganges

basin and gangetic delta?

5) What shall be the livelihood impacts of integrated systems on landless and marginal farmers

6) What shall be the most suitable up scaling mechanism and enabling policies for potential

integrated systems?

7) What is the water and land suitability and spatial variability for integrated agriculture and

aquaculture? (I.A.A.)

8) How can the benefits of I.A.A. be shared among different among different sectors of

stakeholders?

9) Can groundwater be suitable used in increasing dry season productivity in the coastal region

of the Ganges basin?

10) How the recharge mechanisms can be suitable used to reduce salinity?

11) What are the effects of Climate change on different socio-economic groups and their coping

mechanisms?

Ganges Basin

ChallengeChallenge 1.1.

Integrated Agriculture and Aquaculture Integrated Agriculture and Aquaculture

in Ganges Basinin Ganges Basin

Ganges Basin

Research QuestionsResearch Questions

� What kind of management is required for farming located at the interface between saline and freshwater environments?

� How can farmers better cope with the switch between saline and freshwater conditions?

� What kinds of technologies can be developed for farmers to retain and take advantage of flood waters for use during the dry season?

� What technologies can be developed or introduced to allow farmers to take advantage of groundwater threatened by saline contamination?

� What additional, non-rice species (whether plant or animal) can be integrated into the saline/freshwater cropping system to bolster water productivity and diversify the liveli-hoods base?

� Are there other, non-rice, saline tolerant crops that can be introduced to diversify farm-ers’ income bases and improve livelihoods?

� How can these new varieties and technologies be rapidly scaled out in terms of know how, seed availability and inputs?

� How can associated marketing systems be improved and implemented?

� What effective water management strategies are needed to optimize the use of available resources through crop calendars, crop species and varieties, and level of tolerance at each stage?

� What kinds of supporting (local/formal) institutions are needed to enable this integrated system to be developed, implemented and adopted?

� Can conflict between different users of delta freshwater resource be minimised, and if so, how?

� Can flood plains be developed to support shrimp or other aquatic species during flood seasons, with a reversion to agricultural use during the dry season? How can this flood season common property resource be managed?

� If these new systems are successfully implemented, what will the benefits be to aquacul-turalists and farmers, and on the environment?

Ganges Basin

KosiKosi Flood 2008 in Bihar, IndiaFlood 2008 in Bihar, India

The Kosi flood occurred due to breach (about 3 km

long) in the Kosi embankment upstream of Kosi

Barrage at Birpur near the Kusaha village in Nepal

embankment on18th August 2008.

Current of the swollen Kosi river = 13 km wide over

a strech of 100 km.

Affected districts: Supaul, Saharsa, Araria,

Madhepura and Purnia.

Ganges Basin

� North Bihar has an area of about 5.4 million hectares

� Frequent change of river course

� Frequent Floods and Droughts

� 17 per cent of the total flood affected area of the country is in Bihar

� 57 per cent of the total floods affected people in the country belong to Bihar, out of which 76 per cent reside in north Bihar

� Playfield of eight major rivers – Ghaghra, Gandak, BurhiGandak, Adhwara group of rivers, Bagmati, Kamla, BhutahiBalan, Kosi and Mahananda.

� All major rivers like Kosi,Gandak,Bagmati,Mahananda and Adhwara group of rivers originate in Nepal

� 61% of the catchment area lies in Nepal & Tibet.

� Steep gradient of Himalayan ranges carries lot of silt to the plains of North Bihar.

Geographical situation of the Bihar stateGeographical situation of the Bihar state

Ganges Basin

Sapt KosiSapt Kosi River in NepalRiver in Nepal

Ganges Basin

Shifted Course of Shifted Course of KosiKosi River after 2008 River after 2008

BreachBreach

Ganges Basin

Agricultural loss due to flood since 1990 up to 2004

Sl.

No.

Year Cropped Area

(Lakh Hect.)

Crop Damage

(Lakh Rs.)

1 1990 3.21 1818.88

2 1991 4.05 2361.03

3 1992 0.25 58.09

4 1993 11.35 13950.17

5 1994 3.50 5616.33

6 1995 4.24 19514.32

7 1996 7.34 7169.29

8 1997 6.55 5737.66

9 1998 12.84 36696.68

10 1999 3.04 24203.88

11 2000 3.90 22280.70

12 2001 4.60 23108.66

13 2002 8.104 46744.30

14 2003 6.052 6266.13

15 2004 11.242 14000.00Ganges Basin

IMPACT OF KOSI FLOODIMPACT OF KOSI FLOOD

Sl.No Activities Supaul Madhepura Araria Saharsa Purnea Total

1 No. of Blocks

affected

5 11 4 6 9 35

2 No. of Villages

affected

173 370 141 169 140 993

3 Population

affected

696816 1409871 626062 448796 164000 3345545

4 Livestock

affected

132500 303640 80000 161000 35000 712140

5 Area affected 0.51 1.59 0.45 0.38 0.47 3.4

6 No. of Persons

evacuated

370000 335110 107937 115945 65000 993992

7 No. of Human

deaths

15 187 2 34 1 239

Ganges Basin

KosiKosi FloodFlood--20082008

Ganges Basin

Challenge 2. Challenge 2.

��The integrated management of The integrated management of

groundwater in the Ganges River groundwater in the Ganges River

Basin.Basin.

Ganges Basin

The researchThe research

�The Ganges has some 171 km3 of replenishable groundwater resources; in the

Indian part of the basin, just 33.5% of these resources have been developed,

compared for example to 77.7% in the Indus. Some 36.5 million ha of

agricultural land are irrigated, of which 25.3 million ha are irrigated by

groundwater.

�In the east of the basin, groundwater supplies are under-exploited – just 25% of

water used is groundwater derived. In Nepal too, groundwater resources are

barely utilized.

�In the west of the basin, however, groundwater resources are excessively

exploited.

�Natural recharge is declining. India’s rainfall is becoming characterized by high

intensity bursts that occur over short periods of time. Run-off associated with

these bursts is too rapid to perco-late into aquifers, a problem compounded by

upper catchment land degradation and defor-estation, which increases run-off,

and minimises sub-surface recharge flows.

Ganges Basin

Research questionsResearch questions

● What are the key deficiencies in current Ganges ground-water management?

● What are the political relationships that define groundwater use in the Ganges?

● What policy, political, institutional and legislative changes can be proposed to improve groundwater management in the Ganges?

● How can groundwater resources be communally managed? What government institutions can be brought to bear to support such management systems?

● What would an integrated (to include groundwater, surface and rainwater) water manage-ment plan for the Ganges look like, and what kinds of impacts would it have if adopted?

● What kinds of technologies can be used to recharge groundwater aquifers, and how could their widespread adoption be achieved? What would be the likely impact on groundwater tables if such technologies were successful implemented?

● What kinds of agriculture (crops and/or livestock) should be used to reduce demand-side water use?

● How can negative effects of introducing aerobic rice varieties (such as weeding times, de-creased iron content, and downstream water effects) be reduced?

● If widely adopted, how could aerobic rice affect groundwater tables?

● In what ways can the lag time between gypsum applications and land reclamation be re-duced?

● If successful strategies for treating sodicity were adopted, what would be the impact on the basin as a whole?

● How can the rights of the poor to groundwater and other water sources be protected? Are there low-cost technologies or market systems that can enable the poor to access ground-water, and what impact would their widespread adoption have on groundwater use?

● What changes need to be made if upper catchments are to increase sub-surface water flow for groundwater management?

● In what ways can the lessons of the western Ganges be built in to groundwater manageme

Ganges Basin

Impact challenge 3Impact challenge 3

Climate change and vulnerability

of food system in IGB and

adaptation strategies

� A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.

� Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.

� Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change.

� Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.

� Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.

� Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.

� Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

� A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

� Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.

� Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

� Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

� Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.

� A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

Summary Adopted From Fourth Assessment Report Inter Governmental Panel on Climate

Change

Reality – Difficult to face

A man carries drinking water through flood water in Lucknow (August 27, 2008)

Cost of this water???Cost of this water???

Damaged and submerged railway tract in Bihar (August 27, 2008)

This is only example ……This is only example ……

An Indian family sits in waterlogged home in Amritsar (August 13, 2008)

Who want this type of tea break????Who want this type of tea break????

Richshaw pullet wade through flood water in Bihar (August 19, 2008)

Cost of this service ???Cost of this service ???

People salvage their belongings in a improvised boat in Nepal (August 24, 2008)

Struggle to survive

Temperature

Warming above the global mean temperature

Fewer very cold days

Precipitation, snow and ice

Increase in precipitation in most of Asia.

Increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events in parts of South

Asia

Increasing reduction in snow and ice in Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau

glaciers

Extreme Events

Increase in droughts during the summer months and El Niño events;

Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones;

Increase in intense rainfall events causing landslides and severe floods;

Increase in heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more

intense and more frequent, particularly in East Asia.

Climate Change and South Asia

Water

Increasing water stress due to decrease of freshwater availability,

particularly in large river basins.

Increase in the number and severity of glacial melt-related floods, slope

destabilization followed by decrease in river flows as glaciers disappear.

Coastal Zones

Millions of people in lowland coastal areas affected by sea level rise and

an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones.

Coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture industry

and infrastructure particularly in highly populated mega deltas.

Stability of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs increasingly threatened.

Agriculture

Crop yield could decrease up to 30% by end of 21st Century.

Climate Change and South Asia

Research questions Research questions � Climate change may lead to higher temperatures and greater variable and/or reduced

levels of rainfall. These will affect the yields of such crops as rice, wheat, maize and pulses, with unknown consequences for food prices and food security. Larger populations will require more food. Rapid economic growth is transforming the structure of demand for food, away from food grains and towards (relatively water-intensive) fruits, vegetables, dairy and other high value products.

� What are the likely impacts of climate change and market changes on food security and on the availability of surface water and groundwater?

� What are the current and future opportunities for virtual water trade in the basin?

� At the same time, energy security will become more of an issue – however, production of biofuels also requires water.

� How will policy responses to energy insecurity affect rural livelihoods and water use?

� What effects will climate changes have on the use and availability of water.

� What are the possible responses to Climate Change?

� What are the adaptation strategies?

� How to harness the beneficial impacts of climate change?

Impact challenge 4. Impact challenge 4.

Integrated catchments management and its impacts on livelihood

� Land degradation due to environmental, mining activities and unplanned development is a major problem in IGB.

� Large scale deforestation drought, flood and soil erosion are major problem in this basin.

� Catchments management is the most neglected component especially in the rainfed ecosystem.

� Integration of land and water management strategies is required for effective catchment management.

Research Questions � How can development of small scale reservoirs can facilitate integrated water

management?

� What are the technologies available for management of rainfed areas?

� How can the dry season agriculture be made better resource efficient?

� How can the strategies for the Conjunctive use of water be developed?

� What are the farming system better suited to land and water conservation in the catchments?

� What will be the strategies for integrated watershed management to enhance land and water productivity in rainfed area to enhance livelihood security.

� What will be the strategies for artificial ground water recharge of depleted aquifer.

Thank you for your AttentionThank you for your Attention

Ganges Basin