potential use for fish and fish habitat modelling in ...€¦ · fish & fish habitat modelling...
TRANSCRIPT
Potential use for fish and fish habitat modelling in assessments of a changing Huron-Erie Corridor
Investigators: Susan Doka & Ken Minns
GIS: Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae, Andrew DoolittleProject Support: Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt
Stuart, Kathy Seifried, Cindy Chu, Kris VandeSompel
Partners: Linda Mortsch, Andrea Hebb, Joel Ingram, Maggie Galloway, Krista Holmes, Nick Mandrak
Funding Support: CCIAP & IJC
Fish & Fish Habitat Modelling Examples
• Static Weighted Suitable Area Assessments by Fish Guild of Climate Change-Induced Habitat Changes
• Deterministic Long-term Trends in Population Dynamics based on Water Level Fluctuations
• Short-term Spatially Explicit Trends in First Year Dynamics for Select Fish Species
Fish Habitat Supply Model Layers
Source: David Fay & Yin Fan, Environment Canada
Lake St. Clair - Water Level Scenarios
LAKE STATISTICS
CHANGE FROM BASE CASE
-0.26-0.87-0.65-1.01Autumn
-0.20-0.80-0.64-1.01Summer
-0.20-0.81-0.63-0.98Annual
1.901.901.711.751.73Annual Range174.05173.46173.72173.37174.38Minimum
-0.78
-0.77-0.81
175.36174.57
WARM & WET
176.11175.38
BASE CASE
Growing Season
SpringWinter
MaximumMean
NOT-AS Warm & Wet
NOT-AS Warm & Dry
WARM & DRY
-0.21-0.62-0.95
-0.18-0.63-1.00
175.95175.43175.12175.18174.75174.40
-0.61 -0.16-0.98
174.0
174.5
175.0
175.5
176.0
176.5
jan feb march april may june july aug sept oct nov dec
Month
Wat
er le
vel (
m)
Not as Warm&WetNot as Warm&DryWarm&WetWarm&Dry
Basis of Comparison (BOC)
MaximumMeanMinimum
Climate Change Scenarios
Lake St. Clair Water Level Scenarios
Lake St. Clair “What-if” Scenario
• 1.57 m (IGLD85) water level decline
• 8 m dredged channel
• Shoreline displacement from 0.5 to 6 km
Source: Lee et al, 1994
Huron-Erie Corridor Wetland Locations
Mitchell’s BaySt Clair NWA
Hillman Marsh
Point Pelee
Canard River
Holiday Beach
Average ice-free water depths for Mitchell’s Bay: High Water Historic (1978) and Climate Change Predictions
Average ice-free water depths for Mitchell’s Bay: Low Water Historic (1964) and Climate Change Predictions
Summary of average annual predictions for Lake St. Clair under four climate change scenarios (from Croley 2004)
T +3.0
HadCM 3 A1FIWarm & Wet
T 10.7
HadCM 3 B22Not so Warm-Wet
CGCM2 A21Warm & Dry
CGCM2 B23Not so Warm-Dry
Surface Temp (oC)GCM
Overlake Precipitation
(mm)Ice Cover %
Base Case P 803 I 35.5% H 10.7
P 0
Humidity (mb)
H +2.9
H +2.1
H +2.1
H +2.1
I -11%
I -7%
I -12%
I -11%
P -37T +2.1
T +3.2
T +2.7
P +37
P +110
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 8 16 24 32 40 48
Week of Year
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
HADC3A(Warm & Wet)
Base Case
Min & Max
Average weekly temperature predictions for Lake St. Clair: Historic and Extreme Climate Change (from Croley 2004)
Lake St. Clair Wetland Temperatures
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
28-Jun 18-Jul 7-Aug 27-Aug 16-Sep 6-Oct 26-Oct 15-Nov
Open (Mitchell’s Bay)
Dyked (St. Clair NWA)
2003
Tem
pera
ture
(oC
)
bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, muskellunge, white perch*, white bass
white sucker, Iowa darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, striped shiner, shorthead redhorse, round goby, river chub, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch
WarmCool
longnose gar, northern pike, walleye
rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish*, goldfish, quillback, common carp, gizzard shad, lake chubsucker, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, spotted sucker, ghost shiner, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow
trout-perchNon-Piscivore
Cold
HEC Fishes Captured in Coastal Wetlands by Guilds
Piscivore
Non-Piscivore
Locations:Mitchell’s Bay (Lake St. Clair), St. Clair National Wildlife Area, Canard River (Detroit River), Holiday Beach (West Lake Erie)
Wetland Species at Risk in HEC
Holiday Beach
National Wildlife AreaMitchell’s Bay
Erimyzon sucetta
Lepomis humilis
Ictiobus cyprinellus
Minytrema melanops
Spotted Sucker Special Concern
Orangespotted SunfishSpecial Concern
Lake Chubsucker Threatened
Bigmouth Buffalo Special Concern
Notropis anogenus
Pugnose Shiner Endangered
Field Work: Coastal wetland fish community sampled in 2003 barrier and open marshes
Habitat Supply Model Results
bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass
white sucker, banded killifish, brook silverside, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch
WarmCool
longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye
chinook salmon, brown trout
Piscivore(P)
rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish, spotfin shiner, common carp, gizzard shad, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch,mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow
troutperchNon-Piscivore(N)
Cold
Climate Change Scenario: Baseline is 2m, 100 ha wetland with mixed vegetation and fine substratesEffect is 1m water level drop with same habitat (i.e. gradual change)
Adult Habitat
Cool
War
m
Cold
50
100 ha
0
N
N N
P
P
P 50
100 ha
0
N
N N
P
P
P 50
0
N
N N
P
P
YOY Habitat
Cool
War
m
Cold
50
100 ha
0
N
N N
P
P
P
0
N
N N
P
P
P
0
N
N N
P
P
P
Spawning Habitat
50
100 ha
0
N
N N
P
P
P 50
Cool
War
m
Cold100 ha
0
N
N N
P
P
P 50
0
N
N N
P
P
P
Historical water level (m) Climate change water levelYearMar-Nov (average) (Historical -0.8m)
1978 174.42 173.661964 173.66 172.86
High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
white sucker, johnny darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, blacknose shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch
rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, quillback, gizzard shad, pumpkinseed, bluegill, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, pugnose minnow, bluntnose minnow, black crappie, warmouthcentral mudminnow, carp, goldfish
bowfin, largemouth bass
Long Point Fish Guilds in Habitat Supply Model
WarmCool
Piscivore
Non-Piscivore
northern pike, spotted gar, longnose gar
Potential Invaders (Mandrak 1989)
ironcolour shiner
blacktail shiner, golden topminnow, blackspotted topminnow, flier, banded pygmy sunfish, bantam sunfish, goldeye, plains minnow, plains topminnow, river carpsucker, blue sucker, shovelnose sturgeon, steelcolour shiner, mud sunfish, blackbanded sunfish, banded sunfish, Ozark minnow
shortnose gar
WarmCool
Piscivore(P)
Non-Piscivore(N)
High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
High Historic (1978)
Low CC
Low Historic (1964)
High CC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
30-Apr 30-May 29-Jun 29-Jul 28-Aug 27-Sep 27-Oct
Long Point Inner Bay Big Creek Marsh (undyked)
Long Point Nearshore Temperature Variability
Climate Change Predictions: +2.1 to +3.3 oC
Information generated by Burlington / IJC Study
Fish Submodels supplied to IERMIntegrated Environment & Shared Vision Models
GIS
Database & Habitat Models
Wetland Temperatures
Habitat Layers Habitat Supply
Water Levels & Temperature Time Series (H&H) Field Work
Larval Fish
Fish Population Dynamics
Fish Guild Habitat Supply
8 guilds + 2 SAR fish spp
Fish Models
4 fish populations
Refine Model components / Validate Output
IERMSVM
Vegetation Community Changes
Fish, Wildlife & Habitat Submodels
Vegetation Submodel
Test Sensitivity / Refine Performance Indicators
Regulation Scenarios
Criteria & Performance Indicators
Wetland/Veg
Substrate
Depth/Elevation
Buffer shoreline types to depth contour
Map habitat combinations
Model suitabilities for different life stages, species & guilds
Habitat Suitability Modelling
Temperature
Temperature
Lower Spawn Temp
Upper Spawn Temp
YOY start (mid-spawn T) YOY end
(growth T)
WSA Excluded (both YOY & Juv/Ad)
Weighted Suitable Area
Lower Spawn Temp
Upper Spawn Temp
Juv/Ad end(growth T)Juv/Ad end(growth T)
Juv/Ad start(growth T)Juv/Ad start(growth T)
WSA Excluded (both YOY & Juv/Ad)
Lower Growth Temp
Upper Growth Temp
Annual Cycle
Adults
Egg
YOY (50mm; end season)
Hatch (yolk sac)
Swim-up (exogenous feeding
pre-50mm stage)
Juveniles
Daily time series
Smallmouth Bass
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Largemouth Bass
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Regulated Unregulated
Fish population densities in Presqu’ile Bay, Lake Ontario - Regulated and unregulated conditions
Fish
den
sity
(fis
h/ha
)
Next Steps & Potential Hypotheses
• Good spatial information for assessment, especially digital elevation models & dynamic substrate, but add other important variables (turbidity & flow)
• Location of high quality fish habitat under climate change in HEC and important transition areas for protection
• Assessment of likely development changes & strategies and their effects on fish & fish habitat
• Whole fish community & fish population assessments, both spatial and temporal to test extremes