Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF)

Meeting

March 16-17, 2015

Powell CenterUSGS Fort Collins Science Center2150 Centre Avenue, Building C

Fort Collins, CO

OEF – Real time, authoritative information on earthquake likelihoods

Goal of this Meeting:

To construct a prioritized list of planned uses/implementations

“All models are wrong, … some are useful”

(Box, 1979)

All models are an approximation of the system they represent, involving simplifications, approximations, and even fudge factors

More specifically:

Thus, scientists will be debating the scientific merits of models forever

“All models are wrong, … some are useful”

(Box, 1979)

Therefore, potential usefulness should be gauged by model approximations and uncertainties in the context of any particular application…

“All models are wrong, … some are useful”

(Box, 1979)

Therefore, potential usefulness should be gauged by model approximations and uncertainties in the context of any particular application…

Portfolio of assets

California Earthquake Authority

Metric: probability that insurance payouts will exceed $40 billion in the next year?

Portfolio of assets

Related Question:

what is the appropriate hazard or risk metric to report in an OEF system?

Public Reminder

Metric: probability of nearby large quake in the near future?

The level of scientific sophistication needed is very different between these two uses; we want “as simple as possible, but no simpler”

Powell Center OEF Meetings:

1. Potential Uses (this meeting)2. Viable Scientific Models3. Operationalization Challenges4. Verification and Validation

Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF)

Meeting

March 16-17, 2015

Powell CenterUSGS Fort Collins Science Center2150 Centre Avenue, Building C

Fort Collins, CO

Goal of this Meeting:

To construct a prioritized list of planned uses/implementations

and to identify key partners with whom we can work to deploy something useful for them

Agenda

Agenda

Agenda