poverty hamna ahmed lecture: 12. source the handbook on poverty and inequality by the world bank

49
POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12

Upload: lester-hill

Post on 17-Jan-2016

216 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

POVERTY

Hamna AhmedLecture: 12

Page 2: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Source

The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Page 3: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition

The poverty threshold, or poverty line, is the minimum level of income deemed necessary to achieve an adequate standard of living in a given country

Page 4: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition

The World Bank defines poverty in absolute terms

The bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than US$1.25 per day, and moderate poverty as less than $2 a day

This new international poverty line of $1.25 a day at 2005 prices is the mean of the national poverty lines for the 10-20 poorest countries of the world.

Page 5: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Relative Poverty

A measure of relative poverty defines "poverty" as being below some relative poverty threshold.

For example, the statement that "households with an accumulated income less than 50% of the median income are living in poverty" uses a relative measure to define poverty. In this system, if everyone's real income in an economy increases, but the income distribution stays the same, then the rate of relative poverty will also stay the same.

Page 6: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition Poverty is “pronounced deprivation in well-being.”

The conventional view links wellbeing primarily to command over commodities, so the poor are those who do not have enough income or consumption to put them above some adequate minimumm threshold.

This view sees poverty largely in monetary terms.

Page 7: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition

A second approach to well-being (and hence poverty) is to ask whether people are able to obtain a specific type of consumption good:

Do they have enough food? Or shelter? Or health care? Or education?

In this view the analyst goes beyond the more traditional monetary measures of poverty: Nutritional poverty might be measured by examining

whether children are stunted or wasted; and educational poverty might be measured by

asking whether people are literate or how much formal schooling they have received.

Page 8: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition Perhaps the broadest approach to well-being is

the one articulated by Amartya Sen (1987), who argues:

well-being comes from a capability to function in society.

Thus, poverty arises when people lack key capabilities, and so have inadequate income or education, or poor health, or insecurity, or low self-confidence, or a sense of powerlessness, or the absence of rights such as freedom of speech.

Viewed in this way, poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon

Page 9: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Definition Poverty is related to, but distinct from,

inequality and vulnerability.

Vulnerability is defined as the risk of falling into poverty in the future, even if the person is not necessarily poor now

Vulnerability is a key dimension of well-being since it affects individuals’ behavior in terms of investment, production patterns, and coping strategies, and in terms of the perceptions of their own situations.

Page 10: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Which Indicator of Welfare: Income or Consumption?

Page 11: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Chapter on Poverty – Economic Survey of Pakistan FY09

Page 12: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Estimates suggest that between 2005 and 2009 more than 12-14 million people may have been added to the ranks of the poor in Pakistan.

This would translate into an increase in poverty from 22.3% of the population in 2005-06 to between 30-35% in 2008-09

Page 13: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Benazir Income SupportProgramme (BISP)

Social safety net programme.

This programme would serve as a platform to provide cash transfers to the vulnerable identified on the basis of a poverty scorecard

This strategy includes imparting training to one member of each vulnerable family to sustain itself

Page 14: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund

Established to enhance the availability of resources and services to the poor.

Since commencement of operations in April 2000 to date, PPAF has disbursed approximately Rs 55.5 billion to 75 Partner Organizations across the country

Page 15: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Punjab Government initiativesTractor Subsidy Scheme a subsidy of Rs.2 lakh per tractor is

being provided for 10,000 tractors in a transparent manner at a cost of Rs 2 billion during, 2008-09.

“Sasti Roti” initiative Focusing on the urban population of the

province. Under the scheme Sasti Roti at the rateof

Rs 2 of 100 gm

Page 16: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Poverty Measures – Jamal 2009

Head Count Index: Percentage of population living under the poverty line

Poverty Gap Index: To gauge the severity of poverty

Page 17: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Poverty in Pakistan - John Wall

Page 18: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measurement Problems

Poverty is an ethical concept, not a statistical one

Comparing poverty in the same country at different periods of time raises many difficulties:

1. household income and expenditure surveys change their methods (wording of questions, sampling method, interview technique) that make them difficult to compare.

Page 19: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measurement Problems

2. Poverty line used changes between periods

3. Adjusting for prices This is particularly so in Pakistan, where

there are serious flaws with the two price indices available.

Page 20: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Price indices

Consumer-Price index (CPI) Covers only urban areas

Survey Based Index (SBI) It is difficult to estimate price changes for all

goods that households consume because prices of non-food items are not available in the survey

Page 21: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Poverty Figures

Poverty headcount had been rising throughout the 1990s and peaked in 2000-01, a bad drought year.

It then fell sharply in 2004-05, a very good agricultural crop year.

Under the CPI, poverty headcount dropped by 10.6%, under the SBI it dropped five%

Page 22: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

How can poverty drop so sharply in just four years?

How can the same data yield such different results due to different estimates of the same thing — price changes?

Page 23: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

The answer is that incomes of a very large portion of the population are just above and just below the official poverty line.

Page 24: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

This clustering of Pakistan’s population just above and just below the poverty line also implies that families are quite vulnerable to falling into poverty with the slightest run of bad luck.

A drought or bad agricultural year, an illness of a breadwinner, rises in prices of basic commodities not compensated by rises in income—all of these can cause families to fall into poverty.

Page 25: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

MEASURING INEQUALITY & POVERTY

Page 26: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-26

Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Inequality

1. Size distributions (quintiles, deciles)2. Lorenz curves3. Gini coefficients4. Functional Distribution

Page 27: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measuring Inequality using Size Distributions: Step 1:Arranging in ascending order Step 2: Dividing into quintiles or deciles Step 3:Finding Income share Step 4:Measuring Inequality

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-27

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 28: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-28

Table 5.1 Typical Size Distribution of Personal Income in a Developing Country by Income Shares—Quintiles and Deciles

Page 29: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

The Lorenz Curve: Definition:

depicts actual quantitative relationship between percentage of income recipients and percentage of total income received during a given year

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-29

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 30: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-30

Figure 5.1 The Lorenz Curve

Page 31: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-31

Figure 5.2 The Greater the Curvature of the Lorenz Line, the Greater the Relative Degree of Inequality

Page 32: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

The Gini Coefficient: Relatively equitable distribution of income:

(0.20-0.35) Relatively inequitable distribution of

income: (0.5-0.7)

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-32

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 33: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-33

Figure 5.3 Estimating the Gini Coefficient

Page 34: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Desirable Properties of the Gini Coefficient: Scale Independence principle Population Independence principle Transfer principle Anonymity Principle

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-34

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 35: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-35

Figure 5.4 Cross Country Comparison of Inequality

Page 36: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Criticism of Lorenz Curves & Gini Coefficients as measures of Inequality: If two Lorenz curves have been drawn such

that: They intersect each other AND Both have the same Gini coefficient THEN

Both measures become indeterminate for arriving at a conclusion regarding degree of inequality.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-36

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 37: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Coefficient of Variation:CV = Sample Standard Deviation /Sample

Mean Greater the CV more unequal… Lower the CV more equal…

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-37

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 38: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Functional Income Distribution: Illustrates share of national income

received by each factor of production Labor wages Capital Owners profits Land Owners rents

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-38

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 39: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-39

Figure 5.5 Functional Income Distribution in a Market Economy: An Illustration

Page 40: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measuring Absolute Poverty:1. Headcount Index & International Poverty

Line2. Total Poverty Gap3. Foster Greer Thorbecke Indices4. Human Poverty Index

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-40

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 41: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measuring Absolute Poverty: Headcount Index & Int. Poverty Line: Index = H/N Where:

H: number of people whose income falls below the int. poverty line.N: Total Population

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-41

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 42: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Criticism of Headcount Index: Everybody below the poverty line receives

an equal weight.Example:

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-42

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 43: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Measuring Absolute Poverty: Poverty Gap:

Amount of income necessary to raise a family or an individual below the poverty line up to that line.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-43

Page 44: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-44

Measuring Inequality and Poverty Poverty Gap

Mathematically:

Where Yp is the absolute poverty line Yi is income of person I

TPG Y Yp ii

H

( )1

Page 45: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-45

Figure 5.6 Measuring the Total Poverty Gap

Page 46: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-46

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Measuring Absolute Poverty Average poverty gap: on average amt of

income required on a daily basis to bring the individual up to the poverty line

Where H is number of persons TPG is total poverty gap

APGTPG

H

Page 47: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Desirable Properties Anonymity Principle Population Principle Monotonicity Principle Distributional Sensitivity Principle

Two indices which fulfill these properties: FGT Indices Sen Index

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-47

Measuring Inequality and Poverty

Page 48: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-48

Measuring Inequality and Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty

Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measure

1

1 Hp i

i p

Y YP

N Y

Page 49: POVERTY Hamna Ahmed Lecture: 12. Source  The Handbook on Poverty and Inequality by the World Bank

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

5-49

Measuring Inequality and Poverty: Measuring Absolute Poverty

The Human Poverty Index (HPI) Deprivation of Life: Deprivation of basic education Deprivation of economic provisioning:

Without access to healthcare Without access to safe drinking water Under 5 children that are underweight