Poverty, Hunger, and Agriculture

in Sub-Saharan Africa

Opportunities and Challenges

by: Prabhu Pingali, Kostas Stamoulis, and Gustavo Anríquez

WDR 2008: What it means.

World Bank after 25 years looks again at agriculture in its flagship publication.

It reflects the “change of heart” by a major funding institution which will hopefully be translated in much greater funding for agriculture and rural poverty than in the past

It contributes to the increased awareness of the problems facing agriculture and rural poverty today and in the future.

It constitutes a powerful advocacy tool for the funding of agricultural and rural development projects.

It opens the debate on agriculture, rural development, and poverty reduction.

Country Heterogeneity

Africa...Still Agricultural and

Rural

Still today agricultural value added accounts

on average for ¼ of national GDP in Sub-

Saharan Africa (SSA); and the sector

employs 56% of the labor force.

More than 65% of the population is rural.

Poverty is predominantly rural, both in raw

population numbers, as well as in the

relative poverty rate.

Poverty in SSA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Cam

eroo

n

Ben

in

Niger

ia

Sud

an

Moz

ambi

que

Gha

na

Gui

nea

Côt

e d’Ivoi

re

Som

alia

Nam

ibia

C. A

frica

n Rep

.

Gam

bia,

The

Mau

ritan

ia

Zam

bia

Ken

ya

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5Rural Poor / Total Poor (%)

Rural Poverty Rate / Urban Poverty Rate

Widespread Hunger in SSA

Countries with High Prevalence of Undernourishment (> 35%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Zimbabw e

Zambia

Yemen

Tanzania, United Rep of

Tajikistan

Sierra Leone

Rw anda

Mozambique

Madagascar

Liberia

Korea, Dem People's Rep.

Haiti

Guinea-Bissau

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Congo, Dem. Republic of

Comoros

Central African Republic

Burundi

Angola

Prevalence of

undernourishment in

total population (%)

Source: FAO

Heterogeneity across rural

households

Sources of income across expenditure quintiles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

poo

rest

2nd 3rd 4th

rich

est

poo

rest

2nd 3rd 4th

rich

est

poo

rest

2nd 3rd 4th

rich

est

poo

rest

2nd 3rd 4th

rich

est

Ghana 1998 Madagascar 1993 Malawi 2004 Nigeria 2004

Income Share

On farm income Agricultural wage labor Non-agricultural income Transfers & other

Source: RIGA Project - FAO

There is progress...

The share of undernourished people in the

region’s population fell from 35% (1990/92

MDG base) to 32% (2001/03), after reaching

36% in the mid nineties.

Countries like Ghana and probably Gabon

have already met MDG goal on

undernourishment.

Most success stories correlated with

agricultural production growth.

Agriculture and Hunger

-15 -12.5 -10 -7.5 -5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5 10

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Burundi

Botsw ana

Zimbabw e

Madagascar

Comoros

Senegal

Uganda

Namibia

Zambia

Sw aziland

Gabon

Tanzania

Congo, Rep.

Togo

Mauritius

Kenya

Cameroon

Guinea-Bissau

Central African

Sierra Leone

Rw anda

Malaw i

Liberia

Benin

Gambia, The

Guinea

Niger

Nigeria

Sudan

Burkina Faso

Sao Tome and

Ghana

Cote d'Ivoire

Mozambique

Angola

Undernourisment Reduction (in10%) (1990/92 - 2002/04)

Agricultural Production percapita Gowth Rates (1990-2005)

MDG1 Line

Source: FAO

But progress is slow...

No progress in dollar

poverty...

Population living on less than $1 per day (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2003

East Asia and the Pacific

Latin America and the

Caribbean

Middle East and North

Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: World Bank

Main message

In agricultural-based Sub-

Saharan Africa agriculture is

the key sector for:

1. overall growth

2. poverty reduction

3. hunger alleviation

Traditional Constraints

affecting SSA Agriculture

Fertilizer Consumption to Arable Land Ratio

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1990 2000

kg

nu

trie

nts

/ha

Latin America & the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa

East & Southeast Asia South Asia

Irrigated Arable Land (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1990 2000

Latin America & the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa

East & Southeast Asia South Asia

Constraints result in...

Variability of Agriculture

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Burkina Faso

Guinea-Bissau

Seychelles

Namibia

Mali

Niger

Ethiopia

Lesotho

Sw aziland

Senegal

Mozambique

Sudan

Mauritania

Mauritius

Gambia, The

Cape Verde

South Africa

Zimbabw e

Rw anda

Chad

Angola

Malaw i

Zambia

Eritrea

Standard Deviation of

Yearly Agricultural Value

Added Growth (1990-2005)

Constraints result in...

Net Food Trade Balance (in mill. US$ 2000)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. S. Africa)

Source: FAO

And there are new

emerging challenges...

Rapid Urbanization

Integration into global markets

Climate change

Biofuels and rising food prices

Signs of a brighter future

Several countries are making progress

Growing peace and improved governance

Renewed commitment to agriculture at national level (i.e. NEPAD, CAADP and Maputo Declaration)

Turnaround in ODAs for African agriculture.

Increased public interest on getting African agriculture moving (charities, aid organizations, G8, NGOs, etc.)

Agenda for Moving Forward

A coherent cross-sectoral policy agenda

Delivering on external assistance commitments / donor coordination

Delivering on the Maputo declarationand investing along the 4 pillars of CAADP

A twin-track approach