POVERTY PRESENTATION AT UNDP OFFICE POVERTY PRESENTATION AT UNDP OFFICE

POVERTY STATUS AND TREND IN TANZANIA MAINLAND, 2007 - 2011/12

Presented by

Sango A. H. Simba

National Bureau of Statistics

23rd October, 2014

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Part I: DiagnosisPart I: Diagnosis

Introduction and background

Part II: FindingsPart II: Findings

Poverty Assessment Poverty Assessment (The 2007 and 2011/12 HBSThe 2007 and 2011/12 HBS)

SCOPE OF WORKSHOPSCOPE OF WORKSHOP

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PART IPART I

DIAGNOSISDIAGNOSIS

Assessment of Poverty Indices by using Assessment of Poverty Indices by using Backward MethodologyBackward Methodology

NBS has managed to use Backward Methodology to re-estimate poverty Indices of the 2007 HBS. These include:

•Incidence of Poverty;

•Distribution of Poor Population

•Poverty Inequality and Depth;

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The 2011/12 HBS is the Fourth Scientific Initiative The 2011/12 HBS is the Fourth Scientific Initiative done by the Government and Development partners done by the Government and Development partners to evaluate Poverty status in Tanzania Mainlandto evaluate Poverty status in Tanzania Mainland

• Evaluation Answers the Following Questions:Evaluation Answers the Following Questions: The recent poverty trend and profileThe recent poverty trend and profile Where are Poor PeopleWhere are Poor People Poverty Inequality and depthPoverty Inequality and depth Poverty against Population SizePoverty against Population Size Poverty against Demographic Status Poverty against Demographic Status

I. Coverage of Presentation

Estimated Poverty LinesEstimated Poverty Lines

S/No. Lines2007 (TZS)

2011/12 (TZS)

1. Extreme (Food) Poverty Line 12,144 26,085

2. Basic Need Poverty Line 19,201 36,482

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Analysis covers DSM, Other Urban, Rural and Tanzania Mainland

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PART IIPART II

SURVEY FINDINGSSURVEY FINDINGS

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1: The Recent Poverty Trend and Profile1: The Recent Poverty Trend and Profile “Basic Need Poverty” declined by 6.2 percent since 2007. Reduced from 34.4 percent in 2007 to 28.2 in 20011/12;

“Extreme Poverty” declined from 11.8 percent in 2007 to 9.7 percent in 2011/12, a reduction of 2.1 percent;

“Incidence of Poverty” differ between rural and urban: more significant in Rural compared to urban (Dar es Salaam and Other Urban Areas); and

Broad consensus on the reduction of poverty at the Dar es Salaam and Rural compared to other urban

Poverty has Decline since 2007

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The Profile of PovertyThe Profile of Poverty• The proportions of the poor population ranged

from 4.1 percent in Dar es Salaam to 33.3 percent in rural areas (a range of 29.2 percentage points) in 2011/12; and

• In 2007 HBS, the lowest incidence was 14.1 in Dar es Salaam and the largest was 39.4 in rural areas (a range of 25.3 percentage point).

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Poverty decreased by 18 percent in Tanzania Mainland, 10 percent DSM, 6.2 percent in Rural areas and only a percent in Other Urban Areas

Profile of Poverty by DomainProfile of Poverty by Domain

Type of Poverty DSMOther Urban

RuralTanzania Mainland

Basic Needs Poverty Line (Monthly per Adult Equivalent)

2007 14.1  22.7   39.4 34.4

2011/12 4.1 21.7 33.3 28.2Extreme (Food) Poverty Line (Monthly per Adult Equivalent)

2007 3.2 8.9 13.5  11.8 

2011/12 1.0 8.7 11.3 9.7

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2: Where are the Poor Persons?The distribution of poor population (living below the basic needs poverty line) within Tanzania Mainland declined to 11,909,427 in 2011/12 from 13,175,509 poor persons in 2007: Geographically;

•Less than two (1.5) percent founded in Dar es Salaam;

•14.4 percent live in Other Urban Areas; and

•Over three quarters (more than 80 percent) live in rural areas.

Distribution of Poor Persons by Domain, 2007 Distribution of Poor Persons by Domain, 2007 and 2011/12and 2011/12

Domain2007 2011/12

Food Basic Need

Food Basic Need

Other Urban 602,554 1,539,521 687,440

1,718,507

Rural 3,825,291 11,201,451 3,387,103

10,015,440

Dar-es-salaam 99,576 434,537 41,314

175,480

Tanzania Mainland 4,527,421 13,175,509 4,115,857 11,909,427

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The absolute number of the Basic Needs poor people decreased significantly than food poverty between 2007 and 2011/12.

Percentage Distribution of Poor Persons Percentage Distribution of Poor Persons by Domain, 2007 and 2011/12by Domain, 2007 and 2011/12

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Domain

2007 2011/12

Food Basic Need

Food Basic Need

Other Urban 13.3 11.7 16.7 14.4

Rural 84.5 85.0 82.3 84.1

Dar-es-salaam 2.2 3.3 1.0 1.5

Tanzania Mainland 4,527,421 13,175,509 4,115,857 11,909,427

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3. Poverty Inequality and Depth3. Poverty Inequality and Depth““Gini coefficient”Gini coefficient” commonly known as Gini has been used to measure Inequality of distribution of per capita consumption expenditure:

•The Gini takes the values between zero and one: A “zero” Gini value indicates perfect equality while a value of “1” indicates perfect inequality in the distribution; and

•Mean and MedianMean and Median: Have also used to measure the details of inequality in monthly per consumption expenditure

Mean and Median Per Capita Consumption Expenditure and Gini Coefficient by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 and 2011/12

HBS Year /Area Mean Median Gini Coefficient

2007      Other Urban 39,423.4 31,116.1 0.38Rural 27,789.6 22,452.4 0.35Dar es Salaam 49,211.8 37,492.6 0.37Tanzania Mainland 31,577.5 24,228.6 0.37

2012Other Urban 73,879.2 57,559.9 0.37Rural 52,763.9 45,089.1 0.29Dar es Salaam 109,030.3 85,959.6 0.35Tanzania Mainland 62,395.5 49,346.8 0.34

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Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Expenditure for Tanzania Mainland, 2007 and 2011/12Expenditure for Tanzania Mainland, 2007 and 2011/12

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0.2

.4.6

.81

L(p)

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Percentiles (p)

45° line HBS 2011/12

HBS 2007

Lorenz Curve

Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Lorenz Curve for Monthly Household Consumption Expenditure by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 and 2011/12Expenditure by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 and 2011/12

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0.2

.4.6

.81

L(p

)

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Percentiles (p)

45° line Population

urban rural

Dar es salaam

Lorenz Curves

Poverty DepthPoverty Depth

The depth of poverty is measured by the Poverty Poverty Gap Index (PGI).Gap Index (PGI). It measures the depth of poverty being experienced by each household below the basic needs poverty line.

•In 2007, the poor population were a little far below the Basic Needs Poverty line (10.3) as compared to 2001/12 (6.7);

•The decline is also shown between all three domains (Table below).

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Depth of Poverty by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – Depth of Poverty by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – 2011/122011/12

AreaPoverty Gap Index (PGI)

2007 2012

Other Urban 7.3 5.5

Rural 11.8 7.8

Dar es Salaam 3.5 0.8

Tanzania Mainland 10.3 6.7

2020

Due higher level Food Poverty, the rural areas generated a higher PGI of 11.8 percent in 2007 and 7.8 percent in 2011/12.

Depth by PGI by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – Depth by PGI by Area, Tanzania Mainland; 2007 – 2011/122011/12

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Other Non – income IndicatorsOther Non – income Indicators

• Poverty declines strongly with education

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Education of Household Head

2007 HBS 2011/12 HBS

Food PovertyBasic needs

povertyFood

PovertyBasic needs

Poverty

No education 19.6 48.7 12.0 40.8

Adult education 22.9 42.9 12.8 28.4

Primary incomplete 12.1 40.1 11.4 32.1

Primary complete 9.2 30.1 10.1 26.9

Secondary and above 2.1 6.0 1.4 5.4

Total 11.8 34.4 9.7 28.2

ContCont….….• Access to public infrastructure is linked to lower

poverty

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Cont…Cont…

Wage employment is associated with lower levels of poverty

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Cont….Cont….

Migrants are less poor

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ConclusionConclusion

• 12 million Tanzanians still lived below poverty line. Out of them, 10 million poor persons and 3.4 million extreme poor people live in rural areas;

• The depth and severity of poverty (which measure how far the poor are from the poverty line) have also fallen and clustered around the line;

• Inequality between Dar es Salaam and other areas is increasing though there was a decline of inequality in the country;

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Cont…..Cont…..

• Poverty associated with larger families, lower education, low access to infrastructure. This is evidenced by Improvements in non-monetary dimensions of welfare;

• Inequality partly explained by family background; and

• Demographic pressures pose a challenge to poverty reduction in the country.

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Thank You…It’s a Great Pleasure to Thank You…It’s a Great Pleasure to Meet You All!Meet You All!