power to prepare tucson in collaboration with:. gregg garfin, the university of arizona climate...
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Power to Prepare Tucson
In Collaboration With:
Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona
Climate Variability and Change: Projections for the Southwest, the Colorado River Basin, and Tucson
Power to Prepare TucsonMarch 31, 2012 – Tucson, AZ
http://southwestclimatechange.org/31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
“When cars, power companies, and other industries burn oil, coal, and gasoline, they release carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, creating a heat-trapping blanket, and causing the earth to warm. This makes the world hotter and disrupts weather patterns and the environment in several different ways. This effect is called climate change.”
What is Climate Change?
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Image Reference: NOAA/NCDC
http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide
Shishmaref, Alaska
Photo: Laura Dynan (Fotolia.com)
R. Seager (presented at WGA Drought Workshop, September, 2010) http://www.westgov.org for PDF
Trend Since 1895
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
R. Seager (presented at WGA Drought Workshop, September, 2010) Check http://www.westgov.org for PDF
Trend Since 1895
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Where your water security comes from31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
ErosionMortality
Fire
Photo: Chris Magirl, USGS31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Photo: Laura Dynan (Fotolia.com)
Reclamation – Westwide Climate Risk Assessments, 2011
Upper Colorado River Basin
Annual Precipitation Annual Temperature
Where your water security comes from31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Reclamation – Westwide Climate Risk Assessments, 2011
Upper Colorado River Basin
April 1 Snow Water Annual Runoff
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Colorado River at Lees FerryPe
rcen
tage
Cha
nge Less Streamflow
Annual Winter Spring-Summer
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Colorado River at Lees FerryPe
rcen
tage
Cha
nge
Early Snowmelt
Annual Winter Spring-Summer
Reclamation – SECURE WATER Act Report, 2011
Colorado River at Lees FerryPe
rcen
tage
Cha
nge
Less WaterWhen We Need It
Annual Winter Spring-Summer
G. Garfin based on work performed by J. Weiss, University of Arizona (Geosciences)
69°F
75°F
76°F
Tucson
Phoenix
Yuma
Average Annual Temperature1981-2010
Data: NCDC
11034
moredaysper
year
25moredaysper
year
Preliminary analysis byCarlos Carrillo
and Gregg Garfin,Univ. of Arizona
Not peer-reviewed
http://southwestclimatechange.org/31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
8 June 2010 – MTNCLIM 2010 – HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Blue River, OR
CONSIDER THIS
The CRISISREVIEW
dwindling supplies
ram
pant
gr
owth Species
extinctions
drought
fires shortages
Longer heat waves early snowmelt
severe floodsBrownouts
High energy costs
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
The CRISISREVIEW
dwindling supplies
ram
pant
gr
owth Species
extinctions
drought
fires shortages
Heat wave death ray early snowmelt
more floodsBrownouts
High energy costs
POWER 2 PREPAREGAZETTE
Reduce emissions
drought planningwater banking
Wat
er
cons
erva
tion
operations changes
infrastructure investment alternative energy
instream flows
habitat refugia
advanced building materials
anticipatory management
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
http://www.swcarr.arizona.edu/31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ
Power to Prepare
Gregg GarfinInstitute of the Environment &
School of Natural ResourcesThe University of Arizona
www.environment.arizona.edu
31 March 2012 – Power to Prepare – Tucson, AZ