The Smart Jitney: Rapid, Realistic, Transport Reinvention

Third U.S. Conference on “ Peak Oil” and Community SolutionsYellow Springs, Ohio

Presented by:Pat Murphy, Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions

September 24, 2006

Private Auto Statistics

U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups (Car Equivalent Units) 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide

75 million new cars and CEUs are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly World growth in terms of auto fuel – 8%

U.S. cars & CEUs generate 45% of auto CO2 in world U.S. emits 2 trillion pounds of CO2 annually

Every American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime

U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg; Europe 42 mpg, Japan 45 mpg

The Hirsch Report

Low Mileage cars still being made – with a 15-20 year life Hirsch concludes we can’t change the fleet Must develop new liquid fuels – coal to liquids, etc.

$.25 trillion228,500Aircraft

$1.5 trillion287 MillionHeavy Trucks, Buses

$1 trillion1680 MillionLight trucks SUVS, etc.

$1.3 trillion17130 MillionAutomobiles

Cost to replace half the fleet

(2003 $)

Median Life

(years)

SizeFleet

U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone

Passengers per trip Transportation Energy Book, 2006

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Car Van SUV Pickup OtherTruck

All

And the Tendency Is Increasing

Peak Oil Automobile Implications

Peak Oil – means gasoline is gone in about 40 years But we will have less and less each year

Most people planning/hoping for a techno fix Hydrogen/Fuel Cell – 30 years in development (100+ built)

EV – $1 billion R & D for GM; (4,000 built)

Media offers one breakthrough after the other – feeds the drama

Difficult for Americans to objectively assess increased mileage Don’t think long term – continuation engineering Don’t know the history of each effort – breakthrough thinking

Strong belief in and wish for technology “breakthroughs”

Stir-Lec 1

General Motors Hybrid

Experimental

Build in 1969

Modified Opel

Hybrid Car Concept Not New

1921 Owen Magnetic Model 60

Victor Wouk with Buick Skylark Built for EPA Federal Clean Car

Incentive Program in 1974

New Tech Car Deployment – Decades

About 700,000 hybrids out of 750 million – 1/10 of 1%

Pluggable Hybrid (PHEV)

Based on Dr. Andy Frank’s work at UC-Davis – 6 cars

Company (Cal-Cars) formed by Felix Kramer

PR – Washington May 2006 House hearings for $250

million R&D Honda “Spend $ on R and D “

“But don’t count on it” Supported by EPRI and Big Coal

EPRI-Electric Power Research Inst. Unexpected problems

Quick fix limited to 34 mph Lithium ions batteries not ready

Recent set of laptop fires

PHEV Risk

Tendency to glamorize & overstate Senator Lieberman –

250 mpg Toyota and GM –

80 mpg likely Hiding the fact this is

a “coal” car Note infinity symbol!

Could delay needed change Like EV and fuel cell

CAFÉ standards changed fast in 1970s – why not now?

U.S. auto companies need “breakthrough” idea to survive Committed to SUVs and pickups Can’t compete with cars like Honda Fit, Toyota Jazz

The Trends Are Absurd

Impossible Equation 1–2% yearly

improvements in technology

1–2% yearly people population increase (faster car growth)

2–4% yearly oil depletion rate after Peak Oil

Efficiency isn’t the answer 750 million 40 mpg cars

to 4 billion 100 mpg cars?

2–3 times the CO2

We Must Develop Backup Alternatives

Most people we meet have a set of energy solutions Advertising from GM, BP and Chevron TV reports of marvelous breakthroughs

Reality of efforts comes out on the back page Front page “massive” discovery in Mexico Later reduced 90% – not reported in media

Hype and naiveté delays funding of serious non tech options

Cuba Peak Oil response Low level managers saw it coming – developed alternative plans When crisis hit, they, and their plans, were brought forward

Mass Transit Option

Density determines success of mass transit

Historically residences laid out in dense corridors Many walkable small towns along the rail line

Between corridors, there was open space and farms

Suburban growth filled in the corridors Filled in area (suburbs) are car dependent And the filled in areas continued to spread

A true mass transit system for U.S. today might be impossible Our sprawl has no precedent in history

New Mass Transit Success Not Obvious

Mass transit typically supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations

Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,581 SUV – 4,600 Bus Transit – 4,127 Airplane – 3,703 Amtrak Train – 4,830 Rail transit – 2,714

How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

Consider number of transfers to cross the area

Need to Think “Out of the Box”

No miracle cars–fuel cell, PHEV Need to give up

techno-fix

No “light rail” bonanza No evidence of feasibility

Thinking out of the box might be: The private car was not a good idea Traffic is getting worse all the time

Current car based industrial lifestyle cannot continue Planet is being degraded – fast!

The Current Car Paradigm

Encourages people to make as many car trips as possible

Heavily subsidized car-based transport through: publicly funded loans, grants, road building cheap fuel, health care, policing & courts

Encourages the largest possible cars

Makes buses and trains as unpleasant as possible

Makes walking & cycling as inconvenient & dangerous as possible

Ensures that cars are never delayed by even a couple of seconds

Ignores the health, aesthetics, ethical & cost advantages of walking/cycling

Ensures transport needs of the wealthier are met first

Current Paradigm Results – Deaths

1,200,000 deaths yearly

38,848,000 injuries yearly

Enormous suffering

Massive property losses

More casualties in 3rd world Poor road infrastructure

Current Car Paradigm Social Results

Destroys community – mobility brings irresponsibility Footloose – having no ties; free to move about Walking and Biking can no longer be done – some are trapped Freedom of Community vs. Freedom of Individual

Greatest fear of parents for teens – not drugs, not pregnancy Death or injury in car accident Every beginning driver has an accident!

Harms family structure – children gone at 16!

Allows more criminal and anti-social behavior

What Would Be a New Car Paradigm?

Use as few resources as possible “Live simply so our children may simply live”

Optimize community transport rather than individual transport A culture of cooperation is its own reward

Punish harshly dangerous driving behavior Get rid of “cool” feeling about driving View transport deaths as seriously as war deaths or murders

Create a value system that gives people preference over cars Choose life and safety over convenience and “freedom”

Make walking/cycling/busing convenient – cars inconvenient Reversal of century long trend

Long term survivability of life

Will Americans Seriously Consider This?

How serious do American take global warming? “An Inconvenient Truth”

How serious do Americans take Peak Oil? And likelihood of a Great Depression

Do Americans understand there could be nuclear war over oil? Would Iran destroy Saudi oil fields if America attacks it? Are we aware of the Russia/China rearming?

Can Americans consider that life is worthwhile without a private car?

Can we perceive the 5 billion people without cars as leading happy lives?

Should We Rethink “Freedom”?

Freedom of private car should be reviewed Rite of passage – boys/girls become men/women

Is there another measure? No limits – Go where I want when I want

Could sharing bring more satisfaction?

Freedom to break the laws Its not “cool” to obey speed limits and traffic laws

Freedom to use up the future limited resources

Freedom to destroy life of the planet No limits on cars – Hummer, V8 engines A freedom to endanger small car drivers

What Is a Jitney?

A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule

An unlicensed taxicab

Synonym – “Nickel” From the 0riginal 5-cent fare

Essence of the Jitney – mass transit with cars, not buses

Jitneys Are Ancient and Contemporary

Cuba Uses Everything as a Jitney

What Is a “Smart” Jitney?

Previously called “Community Car” and “Ride Share”

Like any jitney, it’s for a small number of people

Not mass transit – anyone, with a good record, can drive

Made possible by basic communications/GPS technology A software problem – not a hardware problem

Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules

Will provides a high level of security and safety

“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75% Climate people say 80% cut in CO2 is needed

Smart Jitney Will Use Existing Car Fleet

Replacing the current fleet would take 10-20 years Still don’t have low mileage cars!

An SUV (10mpg) with 6 passengers = Honda insight (60mpg) Think “passenger miles/gallon” not “car miles/gallon”

Use what you have when a crisis hits – and this is a crisis! British at Dunkirk – Escape from Catastrophe

Eliminate high risk of “breakthrough technology” Doesn’t mean stop working on new designs Does mean objective analysis

Smart Jitney Hardware

A vehicle New or old, small or large Includes a “wired in” Smart Jitney cell phone Includes an Auto Event Recorder (speed, etc.) May have a speed governor – a social question

A Passenger Cell Phone for Each Rider Includes GPS Includes emergency call button for security

A reservation and tracking computer system

Smart Jitney Process

Passenger requests a ride via cell phone or Internet Enters Pickup Location and Destination Location Enters Time of Pickup and Time of Arrival Selects Kind of Service

Smart Jitney computer assigns rider to vehicle Evaluates all seats in transit Determines optimum pick up and drop-off path Monitors pickup and drop-off Process Monitors for emergency warning

Pick up and drop off made Rider submits evaluation entered by cell phone Smart Jitney computer summarizes ride evaluations

E Bay methodology

Smart Jitney Benefits

Faster transit time Three fourths of cars are off the road at any one time Science has developed ride optimization algorithms Parking is now available

75% reduction in fossil fuels, money and CO2

Major savings in lives probably Best drivers are driving – riders are vigilant Significantly less traffic Lower speed limits (55mph) – (saves more fuel)

(and makes it safer for bikes and walking)

Better safety and security

Smart Jitney – Reactions to Date

“I will never ride with strangers! No matter what!”

From several women – “this isn’t safe!”

“Losing my car would break my heart” It’s my only real personal time Without my car, who am I!

“I believe technology will provide private cars forever” Hybrid, Pluggable Hybrids, Fuel Cells, Electric Cars Coal to liquids, gas to liquids, tar sands Maybe the climate won’t change after all!

Reactions Understandable – G7 Example

We live In a dangerous culture – which we could change!

3.32.53.8US/G6 Ratio

176141.763France

per 100 Kper 100 Kper 100 K(millions)

22.515.08.6US/Japan Ratio

718741.534Canada

5041.360Italy

748141.462UK

14291.282Germany

3420.5130Japan

764304.3300US

AssaultsRapesMurdersPopulationCountry

The Big Issue – Individualism

Competition is our number 1 cultural value Basis of our economic system Cooperation is viewed as weakness 2005 had the highest income inequity since records began

Our neighborhoods are organized by income level School funding via taxes supports social separation Perpetuates inequity through generations Competition between children

How could we ride with just anybody? Easy for most cultures in the world Very hard for us

Culture Has Declined

We have lost many social skills in recent decades Politeness, good manners, civility, courtesy, chivalry These are laughable ideas in modern America

Misbehaving in public was an offense in the past Now it is the “cool” thing to do Correcting misbehaving children in public gets a lawsuit

Conversing with strangers used to be an art form It was viewed as one of the joys of life Children were taught social skills

“Community” has been lost

Could a Peak Oil Crisis Change That?

Crises lead to increased competition or increased cooperation This will be our fundamental choice in the near term The option is to Hoard or Share; Compete or Cooperate

Private Car the ultimate example of American Consumer Values And the most destructive device we have made to date

Lives and property Social caring and community

Private Car is the test case for Peak Oil reactions It could be the test case for a new way of living Important to deal with this – or its “dog eat dog”

Smart Jitney May Restore Community

It will require strong ground rules Appropriate behavior men to women No foul language Smoke-free cars

Contrary to current view of freedom “Freedom to offend”

Need a “Freedom of Limits” Not free to say “fire” in theatre Not free to say “bomb” on an airline Can you swear loudly on a bus? Why? Why not? You can’t drive when drunk – and you can’t ride when drunk

If done properly, a smart jitney ride could be a pleasure If not, it will be unpleasant

Levels of Service Will Address This

Random Choice Ride with anybody – fastest service “A Blue Chevy #XML-345 will be there in six minutes”

Limited Choice Ride with certain kinds people Obvious option is coed, women, and men rides Might have other groupings – like age Might choose silent option – no talk, no radio Preference Oriented

Schedule Choice Ride with certain people Set up your own grouping – regular work, regular school Family outings

Safety and Security

Safety covers the automobile Accidents Equipment malfunction Roads and bridges The technical problem

Security covers the people Reckless drivers Drivers using drugs or alcohol Drivers that are too young or too old or too infirm Traffic laws and police protection The social and policy problem

Safety

Our death rates, injury rates and property loss are colossal U.S. 40,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries yearly World 1,200,000 deaths and 38,848,000 injuries yearly

Total property losses in trillions ($230 billion in U.S.) Crippling of people, lost work, lost family members

We can go to the moon but… Can’t keep drunk drivers off the road Can’t make teenagers drive carefully Can’t get people to drive at the speed limit

Safety comes from something other than hardware

Improving Car Safety

Focus Auto R and D on collision avoidance and safety Misdirected Car R & D – $40 billion annually (style stuff) Provide technology for “defensive driving” GPS broadcast of “close” driver happenings Combine GPS and local radar (in test) Use avoidance alert technique of airplanes

Integrate law enforcement with traffic control Hi speed ticketing instead of hi speed chases Develop Auto Event Recorders in evidence format

There is no technology limit for improving safety Lack of safety is primarily social and cultural

Security

American individualism value Privacy is paramount

Part of “rugged individualism” mantra Along with “Call of the Open Road”

Privacy compromised now Internet and phone records CIA, NSA, businesses “pretext” for confidential info Marketing personal information is common

Alternative way – There might be security in not hiding

Improving Security

Is there a security of openness? Wendell Berry on provinciality Nosy neighbors are caring

Aspect of sharing face to face

How can women and children be safe? What do decent men think? Can assaults/rapes happen

in walkable communities? Recall Japan assault rate vs. U.S. – 22 to 1 ratio

Could conversation skills be learned again?

Could “Acting Out” in public and in public cars be disallowed?

How Much? How Long?

Jitney technology mature GPS, Cell Phones, Computers

Software release cost Version 1 ~$10,000,000 over 6 years $350,000/18 months for feasibility model

Additional proven technology can be incorporated Begin focusing on safety rather than style Utilize recent auto “Event” Recorder Try for low accident along with low energy use

Can be implemented nationally/regionally/locally

A Much Lower Risk Option

New technology fuel cell – 30 years and counting

Electrical cars fueled by coal power plants Risk of runaway climate change

New liquid fuels – high risk, decades away, low ERORI Oil shale, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, biofuels The Hirsch Option – designed to perpetuate large cars

Efficiency vision won’t do it – Jevon’s paradox The more efficient the car the more energy will be consumed

What’s Next? Participation

Project is in Public Domain – published on web site General reference spec is on line – “Open Source” Input to date has been very useful – need more

Need questions, objections and suggestions How will you deal with heavy people or packages? I don’t like the women only option because... My tax idea would be a great incentive! Here’s an idea that will make children like it And so on – a community design effort!

Need financial investments for feasibility model

Einstein’s Reminder

“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we

created them”

All our thinking (and values) since World War II has been to consume more

Our current way of living (values) is leading to war and environmental devastation The private car is a key contributor

Time for some new thinking – and new values How about some “out-of-the-box” values? Like caring for the earth and our children's children