powerpoint presentation · 2020. 2. 18. · future prospects fossil energy trends and outlook ......
TRANSCRIPT
CKC 2012
BIOENERGY LEADERSHIP IN BC
Opportunities for International Collaboration
Michael Weedon, Executive Director
August 6
2012
2
Agenda
Background
BC Leadership in Bioenergy
Future Prospects
Fossil Energy Trends and Outlook
Global Bioenergy Investment
International Collaboration Developments
Conclusion
3
BC Bioenergy Network - History and Mandate
History
• Founded March 30, 2008
• Not-for-profit society with an independent industry/research board
• Bioenergy focused mandate
• $25 million grant
• Funders: BC Ministry of Energy Mines and Petroleum Resources and
Ministry of Environment
Mandate
• Maximize the value of BC’s biomass resources
• Develop mission-driven research, development and demonstration
projects
• Reduce GHG emissions
• Network and partner in BC, Canada, and internationally, to advance
BC’s bioenergy sector
• Lever funding to support BC-focused bioenergy technology and
applications
4
What We Do
Major Capital Investments
Capacity Development
Education and
Advocacy
Innovation
Partnering
Competitiveness
Environmental
Benefits
5
Tech Spotlight on Bioenergy in BC
Building the next generation of innovation
6
Our Results
• 13 Technology Development & Demonstration Projects
• 11 Capacity Building Projects
• $13.2 million committed
BCBN Investment
Partner Investment $13.2
$65.0
Total Value of Funded Projects
$78.2 million
7
Technology Development and Demonstration Large Projects - Categorized by Primary Value Stream Over Time
Investment Size Equals Size of Bubble
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Municipal Solid Waste Anaerobic Digestion
Solid Wood Residues
Pulp and Paper Residues
Harvesting and Densification
Heat and Power Systems
Wastewater
Existing Landfill Waste
Solid Waste
Agriculture Residues
Cedar Road Biogas to Electricity
Nexterra CHP Gasifier 2
Nexterra CHP Gasifier 1 Elemental Anaerobic Digestion
ICC Organics to Biodiesel
Lignol Biochemical 1
Lignol Biochemical 2
Bakerview Ecodairy Anaerobic Digestion
UBC Gasifier Research
Terasen Biogas to Pipeline
$1,500,000
$200,000
MicroSludge Pulp
Anaerobic Digestion
Fraser Richmond Soil and
Fibre High Solids AD
Cedar Road
Phase 2
8
BC Advantages for Bioeconomy Development
• entrepreneurial companies and innovation support
• creative communities
• abundant biomass
• visionary policy leadership and support
Creates
• jobs + economic + social development
• environmental benefits
• clean energy exports
Challenges
• scarcity of capital for technology development and large cap ex
• cheap and abundant hydro electricity and natural gas
• policy uncertainty – agenda shifting to jobs and families
• early stage of development - lack of information and sharing of best practices
• lack of developed supply chain
A Huge Challenge: Partnering is Essential
Developing BC’s Bioeconomy
9
Bioeconomy Opportunities in BC
The emerging bioeconomy relies on:
• development
• integration
• best utilization of feedstocks
Low cost feedstocks include:
• municipal biosolids and gases
• agricultural animal and crop waste
• solid wood residues
• pulp and paper sludges
• forest residuals
Utilization of existing waste streams holds the highest immediate potential
10
A Bright and Exciting
Future and Energy Revolution is Underway
• Canada is blessed with an abundance of
natural resources including fossil fuels and
biomass resources.
• In the low fossil fuel price environment
experienced most of this century, save for
the last ten years, these biomass resources
have been largely underutilized.
11
Average Price of Oil and Coal US $ Per
Gigajoule
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
30 20 10 5 3 1
Oil
Coal
Years
12
Recently Presented at a Tides Canada Webinar
13
1930
14
2011
15
2011
16
2014?
17
Net Energy Cliff
18
The Game is Changing
• Biorefining technologies on the shelf for sixty
years are now being developed and deployed,
and new technologies and scientific
knowledge are being discovered to
revolutionize the energy industry.
• Biorefining opportunities will abound in
biomass rich jurisdictions, a blessing which
Canada can capitalize upon though
sustainable and responsible development.
19
Coal in the United States is at a Crisis Point!
• Public utility commissions have rejected, or
the companies have themselves, cancelled or
postponed 153 plants.
• The plant cancellations amounted to $243
billion in investment decisions being reversed,
or disinvested, from coal in four years.
As You Sow, June 2011
20
With the Price of Fuel and Electricity Going Up
There will be numerous
Opportunities
21
CIBC World Markets, Don Roberts, Vice
Chairman, (with permission)
Following are five slides recently presented from
his presentation NSERC Bioconversion
Network Pretreatment Workshop UBC,
Vancouver, Canada, June, 2012
Other EMEA
1%Other AMER
5%
Brazil
7%
Other ASOC
7%
United States
9%
India
11%
China
23%
Europe
37%
| 22
Global Asset Financing in Biomass and Waste-to-Energy (2005-2011)1
1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance., CIBC World Markets
Cumulative Growth in Biomass and Waste-to-Energy Asset Financing1
Global Biomass Investment Trends
Global investments in energy plants using biomass (i.e., solids)have hovered around $9-10 B/year since 2007 – much more consistent than for biofuels (ie., liquids).
Europe is the leader, followed by China.
China’s NDRC is targeting to increase biomass power from <6GW in 2010 to 24 GW by 2020 (estimated cost ~$70 billion
EU expects to double biomass capacity by 2020 to ~26 GW (~$50 Billion)
Brazil likely to spend at least $55 billion for power & cellulosic fuels to use wood & sugar cane biomass
Conclusion? If the official targets are met, expect upward pressure on biomass prices.
$6.19B
$9.71B$10.13B
$12.20B
$10.99B$11.58B
$8.91B
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
| 23
Global Biomass Shipping Routes
Note: Dotted cycles represent the major demand centres; the strength of the arrows is relative to their importance as trading routes.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA, CIBC World Markets
Europe & Asia are the Centres for Biomass Demand
Europe is the biggest demand region, but Asia is growing quickly. In 2011, wood pellet capacity in the U.S. exceeded that in Canada
| 24
Biomass demand for co-firing in Europe is expected grow to approach 14 million tpy by 2014 – a 40% increase over 2010. Three biggest demanders are Drax, RWE and GDF Suez.
Note: using installed capacity rates in the UK, Netherlands, Poland and Denmark – this graph accounts for 83% of installed capacity. “Other” biomass includes
palm kernel shells, energy crops and other biomass sources.
Source :Company reports, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CIBC World Markets
Biomass Demand For Co-Firing by Parent Company 2011 (million ODMT)
European Demand for Bio-Energy
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY Q1 2012 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CIBC World Markets Inc.
Note: Carbon forecasts from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance European Carbon Model with an average price to 2020 of $33/mtCO2. Coal and natural gas prices from the US Department of Energy EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and internal forecasts. Percentage change represents change from Q4 2011.
• Wide range of costs, depending on local conditions & scale.
• With currently commercial technologies, bio-electricity is generally in the bottom half of the cost curve, but its relative cost position will likely deteriorate going forward
• Biomass is different than most renewable sources of energy - provides base load power, and optionality.
| 26
1.77
2.28
0.53 0.53
0.70
1.01
4.16
2.55
1.781.78
1.41.4
3.45
4.44
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Landed costs of Wood
Pellet
Landed costs of Torrefied
Pellet
Savings landed costs Avoided cost at utility Total saving
Logistics
Financial cost
Process cost
Cost of Biomass
point
Cost Comparison Based On The Same Physical Value Chain USD/GJ
* Feedstock cost includes: delivered chipped cost of whole logs for wood pellet; whole logs and logging residues for torrefied pellet assuming 50% moisture content
** Process cost includes: electricity, labour, SG&A, binding agent, royalty and other operating costs *** Financial cost includes: depreciation, interest on debt **** Logistics includes: the cost of transportation and handling from plant to power plant
11.07 $/GJ 9.30 $/GJ
3.71 $/GJ
Savings
If you want to invest in solid biofuels, best to go opt for torrefied as opposed to conventional pellets. It results In Significantly Lower Costs In The Entire Value Chain ~20% less.
O&M cost
Investment cost
Torrefied vs Conventional Wood Pellets
Assumption: Both plants are located in the south eastern region of the United States, are located 100 km from a deep sea port, and the pellets are shipped to Rotterdam.
27
International Collaboration Developments
BC and Korea • BC Bioenergy attended ENVEX 2011 B2B Matchmaking
Meetings in Korea, June, 2011
• At CKC 2011 in BC Opportunities for bioenergy collaboration
were explored, August, 2011
• Canada – Korea Energy Forum, BC, December, 2011
• Canada Starts Here: BC-Korea Bioenergy Collaboration/
KIST Letter of Intent with BC Bioenergy signed, March,
2012, BC
• BC Ministry of Jobs Tourism and Innovation (JTI) active in
Korea
• UBC and KIST sign MOU on Premier’s Mission, Korea, May,
2012
• International Bioenergy Conference and Exhibition in Prince
George, BC, June, 2012 with Korean utility attendees and
speakers
• KETEP and JTI and BC Bioenergy begin MOU discussions
• CKC 2012 Renewable Energy Forum, BC, August, 2012
28
Conclusion
• Continued commitment and resources are needed
• Conventional energy is getting more costly and risky
• Capital is being invested heavily in renewable biomass
• Partnering is essential: development, financing, markets
• International collaboration is underway
• A race for clean sustainable prosperity is on
29
Thank you
Michael Weedon
BC Bioenergy Network
www.bcbioenergy.ca