Policy Trends and California’s Climate Goals• By 2050: 80% below 1990 levels (Executive Orders B-30-15

and S-3-05)• By 2045: 100% zero-carbon electricity (SB 100) and

carbon neutral economy-wide (Executive Order B-55-18)

California GHG Emissions, Historical and Goals (1990 – 2050)

EO B-55-18?

80% below 1990

40% below 1990

1990 levels by 2020

Photo: Associated press

Buildings represent ~25% of California’s GHG emissions today

Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inventory_trends_00-16.pdf

12

Electricity is getting cleaner, moving toward 100% carbon-free by 2045

Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inventory_trends_00-16.pdf

Building emissions > all in-state power plants

13Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018.

NOX in California

18 Tons a Day

107 Tons a Day

Power Plants Buildings

118 Tons a Day

Light Duty Vehicleshttps://www.arb.ca.gov/ei/emissiondata.htm

Electric Heat Offers Pathway To Zero Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6M

etric

tons

CO

2e/y

ear

Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Use of Title 24 2019-Compliant Building

2020 2030 2045

Gas

Gas-heated building Electric-heated building

Gas Gas

2020 2030 2045 2020 2030 2045

Elec-tricity

16

Elec-tricity

Elec-tricity

Elec-tricity

Zero emissions!

NRDC analysis, climate zone 13 (Fresno) with rooftop solar. Including methane leakage

1477 and AB 3232 (2018)

• SB 1477 • $200 million over 4-years• New Construction• Low- to no-emitting heating technologies

• AB 3232• California Energy Commission to develop plan to reduce

building greenhouse gas pollution by 40% by 2030

Integrated Energy Policy Report

Source: 2018 Integrated Energy Policy Report, California Energy Commission

WH Retrofit Market Transformation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Wat

er H

eate

r Sto

ck (%

)WH Retofit Market Transformation from Gas and Propane to HPWHs

Total Adoption of HPWHs Gas and Propane Transition

WH Deployment Increases from ~13.5 M

• Size• Amperage• Voltage• Grid-interactivity

Demand-side• Policy Makers• Program administrators• Permitting agencies• Installers

Supply-side• OEMs

Retrofit-Ready Heat Pump Hot Water Heater SummitOctober 22-23

San Francisco, CA

• Technical Spec Group• Program Framework Group

Thanks

Biogas supply & gas demand in 2050

Estimated Cost and Available Biomethane Supply to California

In-State Only

Population-weighted U.S. share, excluding purpose-grown crops

2050 demand with high natural gas efficiency and no building electrification

Electrification, EE

breakthroughs or ?

Biogas Supply Building and Industry Gas Demand

2015 Building and Industry Gas Demand

Current Price

Projected Price

How about power plant emissions: Is electric heat really cleaner than gas heat?

27

Total electricity Emissions

2020

2045

Gas furnace80% eff.

CombustionMethane leakage (2.3%*)Total gas emissions2.0 MT CO2e

Heat pump 300% eff.

30 MMBTU heat

1.6 MT CO2e

3.6 MT CO2e

1.9 MT CO2e

* Alvarez A. et al, Science, 2018NRDC calculations, climate zone 13 Fresno

0.8 MT CO2e

1.1 MT CO2e

ZERO

..electric appliances have similar or lower costs than natural gas appliances..

Replacing natural gas appliances with electric reduce an existing home’s total GHG emissions by 35-66% in 2020 and 55-60% for new homes.

$6,000-$15,000

$750-$2,400$270-$850

Every $1,000 increase in house price prevents

15,000 California families from affording

-NAHB, 2018

Gas Infrastructure Costs

$7,000 X 15,000 = 105,000 families priced out