powerpoint presentation · policy trends and california’s climate goals • by 2050: 80% below...
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Policy Trends and California’s Climate Goals• By 2050: 80% below 1990 levels (Executive Orders B-30-15
and S-3-05)• By 2045: 100% zero-carbon electricity (SB 100) and
carbon neutral economy-wide (Executive Order B-55-18)
California GHG Emissions, Historical and Goals (1990 – 2050)
EO B-55-18?
80% below 1990
40% below 1990
1990 levels by 2020
Photo: Associated press
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Buildings represent ~25% of California’s GHG emissions today
Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inventory_trends_00-16.pdf
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Electricity is getting cleaner, moving toward 100% carbon-free by 2045
Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inventory_trends_00-16.pdf
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Building emissions > all in-state power plants
13Source: CA Air Resources Board, Emission Inventory 2018.
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NOX in California
18 Tons a Day
107 Tons a Day
Power Plants Buildings
118 Tons a Day
Light Duty Vehicleshttps://www.arb.ca.gov/ei/emissiondata.htm
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Electric Heat Offers Pathway To Zero Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6M
etric
tons
CO
2e/y
ear
Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Use of Title 24 2019-Compliant Building
2020 2030 2045
Gas
Gas-heated building Electric-heated building
Gas Gas
2020 2030 2045 2020 2030 2045
Elec-tricity
16
Elec-tricity
Elec-tricity
Elec-tricity
Zero emissions!
NRDC analysis, climate zone 13 (Fresno) with rooftop solar. Including methane leakage
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1477 and AB 3232 (2018)
• SB 1477 • $200 million over 4-years• New Construction• Low- to no-emitting heating technologies
• AB 3232• California Energy Commission to develop plan to reduce
building greenhouse gas pollution by 40% by 2030
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Integrated Energy Policy Report
Source: 2018 Integrated Energy Policy Report, California Energy Commission
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WH Retrofit Market Transformation
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Wat
er H
eate
r Sto
ck (%
)WH Retofit Market Transformation from Gas and Propane to HPWHs
Total Adoption of HPWHs Gas and Propane Transition
WH Deployment Increases from ~13.5 M
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• Size• Amperage• Voltage• Grid-interactivity
Demand-side• Policy Makers• Program administrators• Permitting agencies• Installers
Supply-side• OEMs
Retrofit-Ready Heat Pump Hot Water Heater SummitOctober 22-23
San Francisco, CA
• Technical Spec Group• Program Framework Group
Thanks
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Biogas supply & gas demand in 2050
Estimated Cost and Available Biomethane Supply to California
In-State Only
Population-weighted U.S. share, excluding purpose-grown crops
2050 demand with high natural gas efficiency and no building electrification
Electrification, EE
breakthroughs or ?
Biogas Supply Building and Industry Gas Demand
2015 Building and Industry Gas Demand
Current Price
Projected Price
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How about power plant emissions: Is electric heat really cleaner than gas heat?
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Total electricity Emissions
2020
2045
Gas furnace80% eff.
CombustionMethane leakage (2.3%*)Total gas emissions2.0 MT CO2e
Heat pump 300% eff.
30 MMBTU heat
1.6 MT CO2e
3.6 MT CO2e
1.9 MT CO2e
* Alvarez A. et al, Science, 2018NRDC calculations, climate zone 13 Fresno
0.8 MT CO2e
1.1 MT CO2e
ZERO
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..electric appliances have similar or lower costs than natural gas appliances..
Replacing natural gas appliances with electric reduce an existing home’s total GHG emissions by 35-66% in 2020 and 55-60% for new homes.
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$6,000-$15,000
$750-$2,400$270-$850
Every $1,000 increase in house price prevents
15,000 California families from affording
-NAHB, 2018
Gas Infrastructure Costs
$7,000 X 15,000 = 105,000 families priced out
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