[ppt] what progress has ... · web view what progress has been made in the game phase-i and...
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<Monsoon System Study Working Group>
What progress has been made in the GAME Phase-I and what will be done in the GAME Phase-II? GISP-II meeting, Tokyo, November 6, 2002 By Jun Matsumoto, Univ. Tokyo
National Working Group Members : Jun Matsumoto* (Univ. Tokyo),Hiroaki Ueda* (Univ. Tsukuba),
Ryuichi Kawamura (Toyama Univ.), Yasumasa Kodama (Hirosaki Univ.),
Masato Shinoda (Tokyo Metrop. Univ.), Yukari Takayabu (Univ. Tokyo)
International Working Group Member :Johnny C. L. Chan* (Hong Kong City Univ.)
* GISP member
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What will be done in the GAME Phase-II?• Full utilization of the GAME data-sets (re-analysis, satellite, upper
and surface observations) • Cross-cutting large-scale analysis over several intensive observat
ion regions.• Heating processes in the Asian monsoon seasonal transition: Role of land surface through heat and moisture budget analysis Quantitative estimation of Asian monsoon heat sources • Interaction between mid- and low- latitude systems• Relationship between Baiu/monsoon activity and convection over
the Tibetan Plateau • Relationship between Typhoon activity and SE Asian monsoon• Quantitative estimation of precipitation system in the monsoon se
asonal cycle
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Plan for Monsoon System Study in GAME-IIBy Prof. Jun Matsumoto & Prof. Johnny C. L. Chan,
GISP-II: Nov. 7, 2002• Main target: Pre-monsoon and monsoon onset processes• How: Organize national (Japanese) workshop in February, 2003 • Organize international workshop (In early November,
2003) with GISP meeting and GAME-T2 Workshop in Thailand co-organized with SCSMEX Project Office
• Include satellite and re-analysis related studies • Organize regional studies/collaborations with Indochina
countries• Write a review paper on pre-monsoon and monsoon
onset processes
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Activity of GAME-II Monsoon System Study in 2003
By Prof. Jun Matsumoto GISP-II: Nov. 10, 2003
• Organize national (Japanese) workshop: February 5-6 (21 oral presentations)
• Make presentation in the “CEOP/GEWEX Workshop on the role of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Platesu within the Asian monsoon”: April 7-8, Milan, Italy
• Organize special session on “Understanding of onset mechanizm of tropical Asian monsoon” in the spring meeting of the Meteorological Society of Japan: May 24 (5 oral presentations)
• Organize international workshop (November 11) after the GISP meeting in conjunction with GAME-T2 Symposium in Thailand co-organized with SCSMEX Project Office (17 oral & 15 posters)
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Summary of GAME-II National Monsoon System Workshop at Kyoto February 5-6, 2003
Main topic: Monsoon onsetFindings:• Monsoon onset is a transition from dry (shallow) monsoon to wet
(deep) monsoon.• Heating over the surrounding ocean in the pre-monsoon period is
important for both Australian and Indian monsoon onset.• Process of onset over Indochina and India may be different.Questions:• What triggers the sudden onset?• What is the role of the Tibetan Plateau?• Is the inversion layer over Indochina contribute for the onset? • What is the main factor causing difference of the monsoon onset
in each continent?• Is there any the relationship with the surrounding dry region?Key words for future study: • Land-sea distribution, Role of vegetation, Moist process
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(1/5)Heat and moisture balance around the Heat and moisture balance around the
Tibetan Plateau using GAME-ReanalysisTibetan Plateau using GAME-Reanalysis η-cη-coordinateoordinate
(( σ-p hybrid coordinateσ-p hybrid coordinate ) ) datadata ((H. Ueda, H. Kamahori, N. Yamazaki, H. Ueda, H. Kamahori, N. Yamazaki, 2003, Journal of Climate, 16, 2309-23242003, Journal of Climate, 16, 2309-2324))
● Method
Tt
VT RdCpPk
dpdt Ý T
Q1Cp
qt
Vq Ý q
Q2Lc
dpdt
Vk pk1/ 2 l (Vllk
k max pl) (Vk ) pk
2 , (3)
( Ý p
)k 1 2 pk 1 2
t (Vl
lk
k max pl )
, (5)
( Ý T
) 1
2pk
( Ý p
)k 1 2 (Tk 1 Tk ) ( Ý p
)k 1 2 (Tk Tk1 )
(6)
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Ueda et al. (2003), Journal of Climate, 16 2309-2324
(2/5)
E-W cross section
PositiveQ2
Positive Q1
Imply condensation process
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Premonsoon circulation anomalies NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
Enhanced subsidence
Ascending motion over the inland
Development of thermal high
Decreased mixing ratio
850hPa
700hPa
(Kawamura et al., 2002; JGR)
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A mechanism of the onset of theAustralian summer monsoon
●Importance of air-sea feedback processes●Dry intrusion into the layer at ~700 hPa level●Inhibition of convection due to subsidence
Kawamura et al. (2002; JGR)
(Kawamura et al., 2002; JGR)
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700-hPa mixing ratio and height
Development of thermal high
Low mixing ratio
Increased mixing ratio associated with deep convection
(Kawamura et al., 2003; JMSJ)
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Tag spatial attribution onto evaporated water
Sea:60, Land:202D grid-plume model (vertical one layer)
Fully mix in a timestep (10 min.)Variables (Q, W, P, E) are
externally given.
EP
QUin QUout
QVout
QVin
W1.25˚x1.25˚
Method for Colored Moisture Analyses
Indian OceanPacific Ocean
IndochinaPen.
BengalGulf
Contents of water on todayare analyzed
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Sudden increase of Indian Ocean
May 17
Retrieval of Indian Ocean
Sep. 28
Onset
Withdrawal
Temporal variation on Bangkok
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Onset and withdrawal of Asian summer Onset and withdrawal of Asian summer monsoon using MRI-OAGCMmonsoon using MRI-OAGCM
By By Akio Kito & K. Rajendran (Akio Kito & K. Rajendran (Climatological Lab., MRI) Climatological Lab., MRI) Rajendran and Kitoh (2003) J.Climate (Submitted)Rajendran and Kitoh (2003) J.Climate (Submitted)
MRI CGCM2•AGCMAGCM
–MRI/JMA98MRI/JMA98–T42 (2.8x2.8), L30 (top at 0.4 hPa)T42 (2.8x2.8), L30 (top at 0.4 hPa)–Longwave radiation - Shibata and Aoki (1989)Longwave radiation - Shibata and Aoki (1989)–Shortwave radiation - Shibata and Uchiyama (1992)Shortwave radiation - Shibata and Uchiyama (1992)–Cumulus - Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert typeCumulus - Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert type–PBL - Mellor and Yamada level 2 (1974)PBL - Mellor and Yamada level 2 (1974)–Land Surface - L3SiB or MRI/JMA_SiBLand Surface - L3SiB or MRI/JMA_SiB
•OGCMOGCM–Resolution : 2.5x(0.5-2.0), 23layersResolution : 2.5x(0.5-2.0), 23layers–Eddy mixing : Isopycnal mixing, GMEddy mixing : Isopycnal mixing, GM–Sea ice : Mellor and Kantha (1989)Sea ice : Mellor and Kantha (1989)
•CouplingCoupling–Time interval : 24hoursTime interval : 24hours–With/without flux adjustmentWith/without flux adjustment
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Onset Pentad: the Julian pentad in which the relative climatological pentad mean Onset Pentad: the Julian pentad in which the relative climatological pentad mean rainfall rate exceeds 4 mm/day.rainfall rate exceeds 4 mm/day.
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Seasonal Variation of climatological pentad mean precipitationSeasonal Variation of climatological pentad mean precipitation70E-90E70E-90E
110E-120E110E-120E
120E-140E120E-140E
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07/11/2003
Simulation of 1998 Monsoon Onset over Southeast Asia with a Regional Climate Model
Koji Dairaku
Atmospheric Environment DivisionNational Institute for Environmental Studies
E-mail: [email protected]
International Symposium on the Climate System of Asian Monsoon and its Iteraction with Society
Sofitel Raja Orchid Hotel, Khon Kaen, Thailand, 11 – 13 November 2003
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H
07/11/2003
0
3
6
9
12
15
4/ 1 4/ 11 4/ 21 5/ 1 5/ 11 5/ 21
mm/d
ayObs(GPCP)Obs(CMAP)CTLNOMNT
Simulation of 1998 Monsoon Onset with RAMS
Averaged to the 10 by 15 degree area (lat 10-20, lon 95-100)
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Seasonal changes of lightning activity observed by TRMM-LIS
by Yasumasa Kodama, Akihiro Ohta et al., 2003
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Pre-monsoon rains in Pre-monsoon rains in ThailandThailand
*Jun MATSUMOTO and Masashi KIGUCHI
Dept. of Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo,
JAPAN
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Climatological pentad rainfall
Average onset
•
Average onset
Abrupt onset
in IndiaGradual onset
in Thailand
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Rainfall
Daily rainfall (March-May, 1998)
Monsoon onset
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Height anomaly at 300 hPa
Zonal moisture flux at 925 hPa
Moisture conv. at 925 hPa
Precipitable water by GPS
Precipitation
Monsoon onset
E
W
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Comparisons of seasonal changes of sensitive and latent heat flux over India (red) and Thailand (blue)
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Plan for Monsoon System Study in GAME-II GISP-II: Nov. 10, 2003 By Prof. Jun Matsumoto
• Main target: Pre-monsoon and monsoon onset processes
• How: Organize national (Japanese) workshop February (?), 2004 • Organize international workshop (In November,
2004, at Kyoto) with GISP and GAME Scientific meeting
• Organize regional studies/collaborations with Indochina countries
• Write a review paper on pre-monsoon and monsoon onset processes