ppwnov13- day 2 pm- mogues and billings- ifpri
DESCRIPTION
Day 2 pm session: Tewodaj Mogues and Lucy Billings, IFPRI: “Drivers of Public Investment in Nutrition—Mozambique” Workshop on Approaches and Methods for Policy Process Research, co-sponsored by the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) at IFPRI-Washington DC, November 18-20, 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Political economy determinants of public investments for nutrition in MozambiqueWorkshop on Approaches and Methods
for Policy Process Research
November 18 - 20, 2013
Lucy Billings*, Tewodaj Mogues* and Domingos M. do Rosário+
*International Food Policy Research Institute+ Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
Study motivation and objectives
• Empirically test theory on political economy drivers for public investment decisions
• Apply theory to a complex multi-sector topic – Nutrition
• Examine the topic in a context with extensive development and nutrition challenges – Mozambique
• From the perspective of this workshop’s themes:• Analysing policy processes• Using research evidence to influence/engage with policy processes• Evaluating the contribution fo research to policy process formulation
Mode 1.2
Development outcomes
Public Expenditures
Political economyfactors
Donors ● Bureaucrats ● Beneficiaries NGOs ● Politicians ● Researchers
Budget-maximizing Vote-seeking Knowledge Collective action
Olson 1985; Tridimas 2001; Binswanger & Deininger 1997
Framework
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Visibility
Lag
Keefer & Khemani 2005
Socio-economic inequality Political liberties
Rule of law Corruption
de la Croix & Delavallade 2009; Keefer & Knack 2007
de facto
de jure
Cohen et al. 1972; Davis 1971; Cowartet al. 1975; Ostrom 1977; Reinikka & Svensson, 2004
For this study
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
Qualitative analytical methods• Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case
inferences on the presence or absence of causal mechanisms
Theory-testing: Identify if the theorized causal mechanisms are present and if they function as anticipated
Theory-building: Investigate the empirical material to identify causal mechanisms between defined explanatory and outcome variables
• Resource flow map – A component of PETSs (Reinikka and Svensson 2006, Koziol and Tolmie 2010), which seek to identify public expenditure inefficiencies. We will not conduct a full PETS in this study, but will develop a RFM to track budgeting and spending processes
• Identification of emerging themes – Apply the Grounded Theory method (Glaser and Strauss, 2012) to analyse data across sites within Mozambique, and identify themes that further develop theoretical framework
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Process-tracing: theory-testing
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
Process-tracing: theory-testingCharacteristics of investments
Visibility and lag of
investments
Attributabiliy to decision
maker
Political credit
Public resource
allocation to nutrition
OutcomeCausal
mechanismCausal
mechanism
Investment is recognisable; Time between
resource allocation and
outcomes
Identification of decision
makers responsible
for allocation
Greater support for politician
Level of & change in
public expenditures on nutrition
Explanatory
TH
EO
RE
TIC
AL
EM
PIR
ICA
L
Process-tracing: theory-testing Characteristics of investments
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Process-tracing: theory-building
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
Coordination across
sectors & agencies
? ?
Public resource
allocation to nutrition
OutcomeCausal
mechanismCausal
mechanism
Observable manifestations
Observable manifestations
Level of & change in
public expenditures on nutrition
Explanatory
TH
EO
RE
TIC
AL
EM
PIR
ICA
L
One agency’s knowledge of and influence
on another
Inferred existence
Facts of the case
Process-tracing: theory-building Actors and their incentives
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Resource flow map
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
• Which actors are involved?
• Who are the decision makers?
• What is the budget process direction?
• What are the intermediary steps?
• What are the different types of allocations?
Resource flow map Budget process
Funding sources
Beneficiaries
Study area
Country – MozambiqueNational level perspective
3 provincesTeteNampulaSofala
6 districts2 districts selected from each province: one high and one low-investment district
Selected districts so far
Maputo (capital)
Empirical tools
Key informant interviews
Data processing approach• Full transcription of all interviews• Coding using NVivo• Translation of Portuguese sections
of coded material
National
Provincial
District
Total
Government 7 9 15 31
NGOs 6 9 15
Donors 4 4
Other 3 3
TOTAL 20 18 15 53
Document review• Government fiscal documents • Donor initiative commitments• NGO project and program planning documents
Preliminary findings: Actors and their incentives
• Motivations of government officials impact level of engagement in information sharing and opportunity seeking
• Attempts at even geographic coverage of resource allocations: Strong donor coordination body for nutrition
• Still many gaps in inter-agency coordination: some NGOs implement nutrition projects without strong awareness of government nutrition initiatives and programs
Preliminary findings: Characteristics of Investments
• High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin A distribution during National Health Week, vs. nutrition education for behavioural change
• Ability to show measurable impacts
• Alignment with international nutrition priorities and employment of evidence-based interventions
Preliminary findings: Budget Process• There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations for nutrition are made within sector budgets
• Nearly all funding for nutrition comes from donor contributions
• Donor priorities drive budget allocations (mostly in a top-down process)
• Donor allocation pathways include:
Through government – within a single sector (usually health)
Through NGOs – easier to employ a cross-sector approach
Thank you
Questions?
Feedback?Analytical strategy
Experience with process tracing analysis