Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre

Pat McCarthy & Steve Knott

Program Supervisors

PASPC Background

• Storm Prediction Centre split over two locations (Winnipeg/Edmonton)

• 24/7 Operations

• Focus on HIW forecasting

• Largest area of responsibility in the world

• Largest number of products in the world:– ~140 forecast regions– Over 800 warning regions– Large marine responsibility

• 9 Doppler radars

HIW experience

• Over 40 tornadoes per year• Most severe thunderstorms• Most blizzards in Canada• Most extreme windchill events• 1st in Canada to provide dedicated 24/7 severe

weather forecaster coverage• During day, 4 forecasters available for severe

weather forecasting• All staff are trained to meet a high level of

severe weather expertise

Scientific interests

• BL processes!– Appears to play an important role for

throughout the year– Severe convection seems related to

evapotranspiration and other local effects (in addition to dominant advective processes)

– Lack of data (BL and Upper air) makes it difficult to understand this impact

– Frustrating for forecasters– Hinders HIW forecasting

STABLE• Originated STABLE concept

in 1999• To address:

– Better understand BL processes– Their impact on storm initiation– Their impact on storm evolution– Develop conceptual models to “fill

in the blanks” in the data– Calgary - Red Deer corridor

seemed the most affected and was deemed to be a great place to study

– Information to be applied to remainder of the Prairies and beyond

– mesoscale modeling?

• 4 areas:– Forecast support– Science support– Pre-project logistics– Science transfer to SPCs/developers

PASPC Involvement in UNSTABLE

Forecast support

• Provide daily forecasts

• Provide daily consultation

• Forecasters available 24/7 for forecast support from SPC

• Forecasters on-site?

Science Support

• SPC research targeted to UNSTABLE goals

• Staff available to participate in research activities (Before, during and after project)

• Possibly available to assist field work activities

Pre-project Support

• Available for summer 2007 to test forecast logistics

• Available to support RSD activities related to UNSTABLE for 2007/2008

• Available to fill in behind RSD to free UNSTABLE scientists

Science Transfer

• Co-author research papers

• Develop case studies

• Present findings at conferences/workshops

• Establish training for staff

• Work with developers to incorporate lessons, ideas, etc. (e.g. mesoscale modeling, NinJo, etc.)

Preliminary Milestones• Spring 2007: identify PASPC participants to work on

UNSTABLE science objectives (in collaboration with the Labs and universities)

• Summer 2007 – RSD tests with HAL to understand requirements for 2008 (mini UNSTABLE?)

• Summer 2007 – Spring 2008: work on pre-experiment science• Spring 2008 – training for staff/students participating in filed

work.• Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on field project

objectives, requirements and support techniques/procedures• Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on any unique

tools used for the desk• June 2008 – run RSD tests • July 2008 – Deploy staff to the field and to the RSD• August 2008 and beyond – continue science and prepare

papers• Fall 2008 – provide Project summary report on PASPC’s

participation

Questions?