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    The SC has repeatedly asked the Pakistans Peoples Party (PPP) government to open graft casesagainst President Zardari. Also the SC has maintained that the government has to go through a

    judicial process to claim any immunity. The government has been dragging its feet on the issuearguing that the president enjoys immunity as the head of the state. SC even went to the extent of calling PM Yousaf Raza Gilani "dishonest''. It warned him of disqualification if he did not open graftcases against the president. The Pakistans Peoples Party ( PPP} has given the issue an emotionaltwist, saying it is tantamount to trying "Benazir's grave''.

    The court in its January 10 order cautioned that it could disqualify both the president and the primeminister for disobeying its orders. Giving six options, the court questioned why any of stated optionsshould not be exercised. Under the first option, the court may hand down a declaration in terms of Article 62(1f ) of the constitution that could affect prime ministers qualification to be a member of parliament. PPP co-chairperson (President Asif Ali Zardari) and the law minister also fell in the samecategory.By the second option, the court could initiate contempt proceedings against the prime minister, thelaw minister and the secretary law for persistently resisting implementing its directions on the NRO

    judgement. This could also lead to disqualification from being elected or chosen as the Member of Parliament. By the third option, the court may appoint an agency to execute relevant parts of theNRO judgement.According to fourth option, the court may provide an opportunity to any affected person to be heardbefore exercise of any of these options. As this option referred to the presidents immunity, it couldbe interpreted as an opportunity for the court to discuss the legal aspects of the immunity enjoyedby the president.

    The Memogate ScandalMost certainly the American extermination of Osama bin Laden on 2 May 2011 in the stealth raid atAbbottabad, Pakistan prompted the current bedlam in Pakistan. The Abbottabad raid evoked apublic and media debate of Pakistan Army s complicity in Osama s presence in the militarycantonment of Abbottabad a stones throw from its premier military establishment. It even kindledmisgiving about Armys competence towards the nation s sovereignty.

    The diminishment of Pakistan Armys military stranglehold over Pakistan can be tagged to the 2007massive civilian protest and demonstrations in defiance of Pervez Musharrafs dismissal of Pakistan s

    Chief Justice Chaudhry. They manifested the first stirrings of democracy and countrysdisenchantment with Pakistani Army s rule . Osamas extermination in Pakistans own back yard deeply dented Pakistan Armys professional image .

    However the PPP government stood stolidly and stoutly behind the army. It even put a pro-Armyspin on the event by securing a unanimous joint parliamentary declaration against Americas violation of Pakistans sovereignty. In fact the Zardari regime gave a three year extension to ArmyChief General Kayani and two year extensions to Lt Gen Shuja Pasha the Director General ISI.

    Pakistans Memogate refer to the series of events in Pakistan which flags the public expos of abitter struggle for supremacy between PPP Government, SC and Army. Memogate appeared inOctober/November 2011 and provided the Pakistan Army a heaven-sent opportunity to retrieve its

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    domestic image on the plea that President Zardari and erstwhile Pak Ambassador to USA hadconspired to discredit the Pakistan Armys reputation . This amounted to national treason.

    Pakistan Army Chief and DG ISI Lt General Pasha alleged that Pakistan s President Zardari in collusionwith Hussein Haqqani the Pakistani Ambassador in USA, had forwarded a secret Memo to the US

    Chief of Joint Staff seeking American help to dissuade the Pakistan Army from indulging in a militarycoup against the civilian government. The memo was alleged to have been drafted by Haqqani at thebehest of President Asif Ali Zardari. Mansoor Ijaz a US citizen, allegedly carried the memorandumpurportedly given to him by Ambassador Haqqani and gave it to the US military chief Admiral MikeMullen a week after Osama's death and outlined a plan of replacing the current Pakistani militaryleadership with the help of the US.

    Mullen initially denied knowledge of the memo but later changed his statement, saying he knew of the memo but thought nothing of it as nothing about the letter had the authority of the Pakistanigovernment.

    Husain Haqqani initially denied the existence and authorship of the memo in question. On October10, 2011, Mansoor Ijaz published an opinion piece in Londons Financial Times in which he admittedthat he had indeed acted as a private channel to communicate sensitive information to Admiral MikeMullen and backed his claim with a series of Blackberry Messenger messages between him andHaqqani. Husain Haqqani refuted the BlackBerry Messenger email chain that Mansoor Ijaz madepublic by stating that the message were a likely forgery. On November 17, 2011, the contents of thememorandum were made public on the Foreign Policy s website.

    President Asif Ali Zardari termed the allegations as "a conspiracy against the Zardari government"

    further stating that he did not need intermediaries to convey messages. On November 22, 2011, anofficial meeting took place at the Prime Minister House in Islamabad between President Asif AliZardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, Chief of Army Staff Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, DirectorGeneral of ISI Ahmad Shuja Pasha, and Ambassador Haqqani over the affairs of the allegedmemorandum. Soon after, Haqqani tendered his resignation, which was duly accepted by the primeminister.

    In response to a petition filed by a group of opposition politicians the Supreme Court decided to setup a three-judge commission to investigate the memo scandal. The three-member JudicialCommission issued notices to all parties linked with the memo scandal including President Asif Ali

    Zardari, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, ISI DG Ahmed Shuja Pasha and former USNational Security Advisor James Jones to clarify their position regarding the alleged memo. The courtcall upon Pakistan's attorney general, Anwarul Haq, to also confirm the authenticity of a series of Blackberry messages which Ijaz submitted to back up his assertions against the former envoy.

    The PPP government on its part has suggested that its opponents on the Supreme Court, in themilitary and in the political opposition are using the scandal to try to topple the country's leadership.The PPP government asserted that a court probe is needless as parliament was the moreappropriate forum and was already looking into the matter. The army has denied it ever intended tocarry out a coup and was outraged by the memo and supported the Supreme Court's investigation.

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    The former US national security adviser, Gen. James Jones, who acted as an intermediary betweenIjaz and Mullen, in a sworn affidavit delivered to the court said that he had no reason to believe thatHaqqani had anything to do with the memo.

    On 9 Jan talking to a China- based newspaper Peoples Daily when the Army Chief was on an official

    visit to China, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani said that Chief of the Army Staff (COAS)General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General LieutenantGeneral Ahmed Shuja Pasha had submitted their respective reply to the Supreme Court (SC) withoutthe consent of the government in Memogate scandal case. He asserted that the reaction from anygovernment institution without the sanction of the government is unconstitutional and unlawful.

    The army chief called on President Asif Ali Zardari for rare face-to-face talks. S ource said that thearmy chief complained to the president about the prime ministers statements, and said they

    needed to be either clarified or withdrawn.

    Armys reply through Pakistans Inter Services Public Relations (I SPR) on 11 Jan stated thatallegations levelled by Prime Minister against Army Chief and DG ISI could have very seriousramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country. This raised the spectre of animpending military coup. Military high commands appointment of Brigadier Sarfaraz Ali ascommander of the 111 Brigade, infamous for use in past military coups did not help matters.

    The Army insisted that the replies to the directly served SC notices were sent to the Ministry of Defence for onward submission to the Honourable Supreme Court, through Attorney General (LawMinistry). It also categorically stated that COAS and DG ISI in their response to the HonourableSupreme Court were obliged to state facts as known to them, on the Memo Issue. A letter was also

    dispatched to the Attorney General of Pakistan and the Honourable Supreme Court of Pakistaninforming that the replies have been submitted to the Ministry of Defence. The army demanded thatthe prime ministers statements , criticising it, be clarified or withdrawn.

    Prime Minister Gilani sacked Secretary Defence Lt-Gen (retd) Naeem Khalid Lodhi. Prime Ministeroffice claimed that Lodhi was fired for gross misconduct and illegal action which createdmisunderstanding betwe en state institutions. He has been replaced by a Gilani man. Gilanis officealso denied reports about prime minister having called the British High Commissioner in Islamabad,expressing concerns that the army might be about to mount a coup, and asking for London tosupport the government.

    Addressing the meeting of the Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC), held at the Prime MinistersHouse Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has signalled signs of rapprochement towards army.Addressing the participan ts, the PM said that it was his governments policy to allow and enable allstate institutions to play their role in their respective domains, to bring forth the best in promotingPakistans national interest. The PM said the armed forces were a pillar of the nations strength.The nation applauds their heroic services in the defence of the motherland,

    For his failure to comply with the court order on NRO, the Supreme Court summoned Gilani to

    appear before it for contempt of Court. Gilani appeared on the appointed date, January 1, with hislawyer Aitzaz Ahsan, another PPP lawyer. Gilani argued that under the Art. 248 of the constitution,

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    Zardari enjoyed immunity during his tenure as President and, therefore, there was no cause for anyaction by him as Prime Minister. The SC bench exempted Gilani from further personal appearance,but directed his lawyer to present his case before the bench on February1.

    The situation in Pakistan fluctuates on a daily basis; this makes drawing any definite conclusion

    about how democracy in Pakistan will ultimately morph very difficult. However based on the courseof event some extrapolations can be made:

    The court will hear the arguments on February 2, and give a judgement on Article 248. This willnot only be an argument on Article 248 but also the power of the court to nullify the NRO.Future of implementation of graft cases and individuals claiming immunity under the NRO willbecome transparent. This will probably set the tone for an independent and powerful judiciary.

    President Zardari is still to reply to the SC notice in the Memogate. The investigations of Memogate case may linger and find it difficult to conclusively prove any links of it with

    President Zardari in a court of law. A lot will depend on Blackberry interaction between Haqqaniand Ijaz.

    If Zardari gets temporary relief on grounds of immunity till the end of his tenure from the SC,other political parties like Imran Khans Tehrik -e-Insaf Pakistan and PML (N) may take to thestreets. That may bring the election closer.

    With an activist and assertive Supreme Court judiciary, a growing and well educated middleclass, active Pakistani media channels and Americas disillusionment with Pakistan Army,military coup by the Pakistan Army in the future is not going to be a cakewalk as in yonderyears. As of now army has indicated that it will support the Supreme Court, but not spelled outhow.

    Pakistan today stands at political crossroads and all the stake holders need to work together towardsbuilding a stable and democratic Pakistan. It should seek to cleanse the country of terrorism andsectarianism, disband its terrorist assets, and step aside to allow the civilian government to build thecountry. The army cannot wait any longer for their time tested ally China to come to their rescue. Astable and democratic Pakistan portends peace and harmony in the region.