precipitation in norway idar barstad uni research – (unicomputing / bjerknes centre for climate
DESCRIPTION
Nesttun, 14th September 2005TRANSCRIPT
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Precipitation in Norway
Idar [email protected]
Uni Research – (UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)
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Motivation: Orographic precipitation and climate change
Results from a small-scaled field campaign
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Nesttun, 14th September 2005
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Return period /-amount for Bergen (daily data)
x
2 months later
10001001
Ret
urn
valu
e (m
m/d
ay)
Return period (years)
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14th Nov 2005
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Pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation
-2 days
-2 days
Cluster #
2
3
Extreme day
Extreme day
(Barstad and Sorteberg, 2012, in prep.)
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Mean precipitation Norway – whole year
Sorteberg & Kvamstø, 2008
ARPEGE (HADCM3)ARPEGE (GFDL)
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The studyIncreasing demand of products from numerical models of high resolution
Q: Can models deliver what we ask for?
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Experimental set-up
Collect precipitation using rain gauges (“tipping” buckets)For 12 weeks 2006 across an island at the west coast of Norway
Run numerical model - WRFV3.3, 9-3-1 km, MYJ, Thompson MP
- spectral nudging (>1000km), 45-15-5 sec time step
Material from a submitted paper (Barstad, 2012 ; QJRMS)
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Domain9-3-1 km domain
~500 m peaks
10 kmContours every 50 m
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Total precip3 km frontal 3 km convective
Vertically int.water vaporrose
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Total precip at 1-km grid
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1
10 8 18 92
mod/obs
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Precip at high percentiles
OBS
mod
(10min accumulation)
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Time-step precOBS
1 km 3 km
(0.2 mm per tip)
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Radiosonde info
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Shallow convection
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Extreme precip cases (q99)
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Time-step precOBS
1 km 3 km
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WRF and shallow convection
C Vincent (2010)
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Zoom in on the convectionIt doesn’t seem to be aswell defined and organizedas suggested by the model
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Extreme precipitation – w Norway
Caroletti and Barstad (2009)
A1B scenario – downscalingusing 12 GCM models