predict the future: avoiding failures with the pre-mortem
TRANSCRIPT
Predict the Future: Avoiding Failures with
the Pre-Mortem
Dan Corbin
Context.IO Product Manaager
11/11/2014
The Keep Austin Agile 2015 Conference team is looking
for the best Agile presenters to share ideas.
The conference will be May 8th, 2015. Apply now!
http://2015conf.agileaustin.org/speakers
Agile Austin…Housekeeping!
My background
● Product Manager for Context.IO
● Programmer for over ten years before moving to product management.
● Certified Scrum Professional and Certified Scrum Product Owner
● Agile Austin Product SIG Co-Chair
Please feel free to ask questions and share your
own tips for more successful project planning!
Background and Agenda
•Projects fail at a startling rate.
•Why do projects fail?• Safe Silence
• Reluctance to oppose plan from the boss
• Overconfidence
• Groupthink
The Problem: Goals derailed due to poor risk
mitigation
How can we improve?
The Solution: The Pre-mortem
How a pre-mortem is different
•Meeting Details
•Detail Plan
•Accept plan has failed...badly
•Elicit reasons for failure
•Gather and prioritize the list of reasons
•Strengthen the plan to avoid disaster
•Create a proactive solution
Pre-mortem Structure
Detail the plan…and then assume the worst
Gather reasons for the failures
Organize reasons for the failures
Ranking the risks
Strengthen the plan and create solutions
• Card Sizing
– Small = 6 developer weeks
– Medium = 10 developer weeks
– Large = 15 developer weeks
– Extra Large = 25 developer weeks
• Sample calculation of available weeks:
– 14 weeks in the quarter for each engineer
– 4 weeks (Hackathon, Holidays, etc.)
– -------------
– 10 weeks
– x 5 engineers
– -------------
– 50 engineer weeks
Quarterly Planning: T-shirt Sizes
• Q3
•Original Plan:
•We started with three cards: XL, M, and a discovery
card (0)
•What went wrong:
•Production issues, Service support, Concerns around
new technology
Context.IO Pre-mortem Takeaways: Q3
• How to avoid disaster:
– Designated an engineer as
Firefighter
– Scaled back cards
• New Plan:
– Exchange Phase One (XL)
– Billing Phase One (0)
Context.IO Pre-mortem Takeaways: Q3
• Original Plan:
– Started with two cards: Exchange Phase Two (XL),
Exchange Beta Discovery (0)
• What went wrong:
– People issues (hiring, new team members), Technical
concerns around Exchange WebHooks
Context.IO Pre-mortem Takeaways: Q4
• How to avoid disaster:
– Team would assist recruiting process
– Tackle toughest work first
• New Plan:
– Exchange Phase Two (XL)
– Deliver Context.IO Data to Panel (S)
– Storage Layer Enhancements and Discovery (S)
– Exchange Beta Discovery (0)
Context.IO Pre-mortem Takeaways
Summary
We’re Hiring!
• Software Engineer, Consumer Apps
• Software Engineer, Context.IO
• Senior Software Engineer, Context.IO
• API Developer Evangelist
Learn more at careers.returnpath.com
Please email or connect with me on LinkedIn if you
have questions!
http://www.linkedin.com/in/danielcorbin/