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Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley ([email protected]) Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean- Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics July 9, 2007

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Page 1: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future

climate, emissions, and land-use change

Colette L. HealdNOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow

University of California, Berkeley([email protected])

Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez

Fung, John Seinfeld

International Union of Geodesy and GeophysicsJuly 9, 2007

Page 2: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL

Semi-Volatiles

Oxidation by OH, O3, NO3

Direct Emission

Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning

MonoterpenesSesquiterpenes

Partitioning (non-linear)

Aromatics

ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCESBIOGENIC SOURCES

Isoprene

Secondary

Organic

Aerosol

Primary

Organic

Aerosol

Page 3: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE…

Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie globally more than sulfate

[Zhang et al., in press]SulfateOrganics

Page 4: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

MODELING FRAMEWORK

Community Land Model (CLM3)Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007]

Feddema et al. [2007]

LAI (MODIS)Plant Functional Types

Soil moistureVegetation Temperature

BVOC Algorithms[Guenther et al., 1995; 2006]

Monterpenes: GEIAIsoprene: MEGAN

Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3)

ChemistryTransportRadiation

BVOC Emissions

VegetationMeteorology

RadiationPrecipitation

SOA production2-product model from oxidation of:1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002]2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006]3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007]

AnthropogenicEmissions,

GHG concentrations,SST

Page 5: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA

Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived dominates burden

Page 6: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS

496 TgC/yr2100:607 TgC/yr

43 TgC/yr2100:51 TgC/yr

22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)

Page 7: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS

45 TgC/yr

16 TgC/yr

2100:A1B: 20 TgC/yrA2: 35 TgC/yr

2100:A1B: 72 TgC/yrA2: 96 TgC/yr

Large increases predicted, especially over Asia

Page 8: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY

Surface SOA

Zonal SOA

Δ AnthropogenicEmissions

Δ BiogenicEmissions

Δ Climate

+7%Global Burden +26% +6%

Page 9: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2)

SOA (TOTAL)BVOC emissions

Feddema et al. [2007] Projections

Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14%

Isoprene

Monoterpenes

Page 10: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA

Climate and Emission: +36%

Anthropogenic Land-use: -14%Natural Vegetation: ??

TOTAL SOA

Page 11: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES

South America is the largest SOA source in

present-day but significant growth expected for Asia

by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the

largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).

Page 12: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY

SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics.

2000 2100-2000

SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions.

SurfaceNO/HO2

Page 13: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS?

Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS1

Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100?

SULFATE

SOA

1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000]

Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgCProjection: 36%↑

SO

A B

urd

en

Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate