predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate,...

Download Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA

Post on 18-Dec-2015

216 views

Category:

Documents

2 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Slide 1
  • Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (heald@atmos.berkeley.edu) Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics July 9, 2007
  • Slide 2
  • ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL Semi- Volatiles Oxidation by OH, O 3, NO 3 Direct Emission Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning Monoterpenes Sesquiterpenes Partitioning (non-linear) Aromatics ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCESBIOGENIC SOURCES Isoprene S econdary O rganic A erosol P rimary O rganic A erosol
  • Slide 3
  • WHY WE SHOULDNT FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie globally more than sulfate [Zhang et al., in press] Sulfate Organics
  • Slide 4
  • MODELING FRAMEWORK Community Land Model (CLM3) Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007] Feddema et al. [2007] LAI (MODIS) Plant Functional Types Soil moisture Vegetation Temperature BVOC Algorithms [Guenther et al., 1995; 2006] Monterpenes: GEIA Isoprene: MEGAN Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3) Chemistry Transport Radiation BVOC Emissions Vegetation Meteorology Radiation Precipitation SOA production 2-product model from oxidation of: 1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002] 2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006] 3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007] Anthropogenic Emissions, GHG concentrations, SST
  • Slide 5
  • PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived dominates burden
  • Slide 6
  • PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS 496 TgC/yr 2100: 607 TgC/yr 43 TgC/yr 2100: 51 TgC/yr 22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8C)
  • Slide 7
  • PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS 45 TgC/yr 16 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 20 TgC/yr A2: 35 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 72 TgC/yr A2: 96 TgC/yr Large increases predicted, especially over Asia
  • Slide 8
  • CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY Surface SOA Zonal SOA Anthropogenic Emissions Biogenic Emissions Climate +7% Global Burden +26% +6%
  • Slide 9
  • CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2) SOA (TOTAL) BVOC emissions Feddema et al. [2007] Projections Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14% Isoprene Monoterpenes
  • Slide 10
  • TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA Climate and Emission: +36% Anthropogenic Land-use: -14% Natural Vegetation: ?? TOTAL SOA
  • Slide 11
  • SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).
  • Slide 12
  • CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics. 2000 2100-2000 SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions. Surface NO/HO 2
  • Slide 13
  • INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS? Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS 1 Projection: by > 50% by 2100? SULFATE SOA 1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000] Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC Projection: 36% SOA Burden Andreae et al. [2005] suggest sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate

View more