predicted impacts of climate change on threatened and
TRANSCRIPT
Predicted impacts of climate change on threatened and endemic species in the
Albertine Rift Region
Andrew Plumptre and Sam Ayebare Wildlife Conservation Society
The Albertine Rift Region
• The most species rich region for vertebrates in the whole of Africa
• More endemic species than any other ecoregion
• More threatened species than any other ecoregion/hotspot
WCS made studies of predicted climate changes in Albertine Rift
Main findings of climate work
• Likely to become drier up to 2030-2040 in most of AR
• Then will become wetter up to end of century in north and centre of AR
• Most increased rainfall in September - November
Bwindi-Ruhija precipitation rate
based on daily data from 1991-2006
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7-day running mean monthly mean
Bwindi-Ruhija monthly mean rainfall rates
(annual 3.7 mm/day = 1,348 mm total)
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Modeling species distributions of endemic and threatened species
• Used Maxent to model individual species that were endemic or threatened • Mammals
• Birds
• Reptiles
• Amphibians
• Plants
Combined richness of endemic and threatened species
Endemic Threatened
Modeled in the future using A2 scenario and combination of
three climate models
Endemic Threatened
Losses of range and percentage protected
Taxon Percentage loss to habitat destruction
Percentage loss to Climate change
Percentage protected now
Percentage protected in 2080
Endemic
Mammals 40 69 73 34
Birds 35 78 50 70
Reptiles 34 68 44 53
Amphibians 30 75 38 52
Plants 34 80 59 69
Threatened
Large mammals 22 26 40 48
Small mammals 58 68 43 52
Plants 31 57 51 64
Conservation Planning Marxan
Conclusions of research
• Endemic and threatened species have lost on average 35% of their predicted current range to agriculture
• On average species will lose 65% of their remaining range by 2080
• About 49% of ranges on average are in protected areas – 55% of future ranges
Probable new Leptopelis from Bwindi
A.Plumptre/WCS
Conservation applications
• Using niche models to identify critical areas outside protected areas
• Looking to improve climate resilience • Conservation farming
• Agroforestry
• Incentives to conserve forest (REDD+)
• Niche modeling also being used to plan oil developments and minimise impacts
A.Plumptre/WCS