predictiction, expection, and surprise
TRANSCRIPT
Predictiction, Expection, …and Surprise
Eric HorvitzPrincipal ResearcherMicrosoft Research
Learning & reasoning prowess
Computation
Memory
Sensors, connectivity, content
Structured & messy content
+
Streaming data about world & people
+
Advances in learning & inference
Predictive models at core
of services & experiences
Behind the scenes…and in the foreground
Learning &
reasoningSensing
Local sensingPortable
device
Continual sensing, learning, and reasoning always available in stream of daily life
Web service
• Event store
• Learning
• Reasoning
Multiple views on traffic
Operator ID: Nick
Heading: INCIDENT
Message: INCIDENT
INFORMATION
Cleared 1637: I-405 SB
JS I-90 ACC BLK RL CCTV
1623 – WSP, FIR ON SCENE
Incident reports
Weather
Major events
e.g., Forecasting traffic
System-wide status & dynamics
Incident reports
Sporting events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Season
Holiday status
Max likely time until bottleneck gone
Standard deviation
Traffic forecasting service
Data store
Inference
User logs
Base-level predictions
Time until
jams
appear?
Times until
jams
disappear?
Predicting low probability or umodeled future outcome of significant consequence.
E1 E2 E3
H1 H2
E4
World model
E2 E3
H1 H2
E4
Cognitive model
Learn what surprises people
…now and in the future
Expectations
Major events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Holiday status
Real
World
Outcome
System-wide status & dynamics
Incident reports
Sporting events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Season
Holiday status
Database of surprising events
Data store
Future traffic
Pro
ba
bility
!! Events at t
Human
Forecaster
Learn what surprises people
…now and in the future
Expectations
Major events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Holiday status
Real
World
Outcome
System-wide status & dynamics
Incident reports
Sporting events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Season
Holiday status
Database of surprising events
Data store
Future traffic
Pro
ba
bility
!! Events at t
Human
Forecaster
System-wide status & dynamics
Incident reports
Sporting events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Season
Holiday status
Events at t-T
Base-level predictions
Surprise
& surprise forecasting
Surprise forecasting models
System-wide status & dynamics
Incident reports
Sporting events
Weather
Time of day
Day of week
Season
Holiday status
Traffic forecasting service
Data store
Inference
User logs
World event streams
Surprise Forecaster
Machine learning
Past Future
!
Real-time sensing
Surprise Forecasts
!
Surprise stream
! !
Large-scale data & computation to predict surprises
Predictive models for people + world
Forecasts we really care about