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Predicting Properties of Small Mol Kernel-Based Machine Learning M Klaus-Robert Müller, Matthias Rupp Gisbert Schneider et al. lecules with Methods p, Katja Hansen, Timon Schroeter,

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Page 1: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with

Kernel- Based Machine Learning Methods

Klaus-Robert Müller, Matthias Rupp, Katja Hansen,

Gisbert Schneider et al.

Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with

Based Machine Learning Methods

Müller, Matthias Rupp, Katja Hansen, Timon Schroeter,

Page 2: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Machine Learning in a nutshell

Typical scenario: learning from dataTypical scenario: learning from data

• given data set X and labels Y (generated

• LEARN/INFER underlying unknown mapping

Y = f(X)

Example: distinguish toxic and non-toxic compoundsExample: distinguish toxic and non-toxic compounds

BUT: how to do this optimally with good performance

? f

generated by some joint probabilty distribution p(x,y))

mapping

Y = f(X)

compounds, metabolically stable compounds ...compounds, metabolically stable compounds ...

performance on unseen data?

Page 3: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Processes

Page 4: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Process in 2-dim

Page 5: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Process in 3-dim

Page 6: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Process in 5-dim

Page 7: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Process in 100-dim

Page 8: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

And here is the GP

Page 9: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Covariance Functions

Page 10: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Gaussian Process Models

Page 11: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Bayes Theorem

Page 12: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

GP Training

Page 13: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Prediction with GPs

Page 14: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

GP Learning – a cartoon

Page 15: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

GP the Movie

Page 16: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Application: predict chemical endpointsendpoints from descriptors

Page 17: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Data available: solubilty ( physico

[Schwaighofer et al. JCIM 2007, Schroeter et al,

physico -chemical property)

et al. JCIM 2007, Schroeter et al, ChemMedChem 2007]

Page 18: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Issues: Multiple Measurements

Page 19: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Fitness for Purpose

Log s

Page 20: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Descriptors

ML model ML model ML model can tell which descriptors are importantML model can tell which descriptors are important

Page 21: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Results Solubility Schering in House (Schering in House ( at pH 7)

5-fold CV5-fold CV

Page 22: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Results Solubility Huuskonen

Page 23: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Results LogD (at pH 7)

[Schroeter et al 2008][Schroeter et al 2008]

Page 24: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

GPs for Classification

Page 25: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Measuring Metabolic Stability (bio

[Schwaighofer

(bio -chemical property)

Schwaighofer et al, J Comp Mol Des 2008]

Page 26: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Measuring Metabolic Stability: DetailedDetailed set-up

Page 27: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Quantifying Performance

Page 28: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Model Performance

Page 29: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Predicting biological properties

Page 30: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Virtual Screening: Optimization CriteriaCriteria

Page 31: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

The Study

Page 32: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Choosing the Kernel

Page 33: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

PPAR-Gamma Data Set

kPCA

Page 34: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Results

Page 35: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Virtual Screening: cherry picking

Uncertainty ofprediction

Highly certain prediction& strong binding

Higher pKi values indicate stronger binding

Page 36: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Detailed Results

Fraction of inactives in top 20

Page 37: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Results: prospective validation

Page 38: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Best Hit: a natural product

[Rupp et al., ChemMedChem 2009, Steri et al.,

Cynodon dactylon

et al., Bioorg Med Chem Lett 2010]

Page 39: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Misc RemarksRemarks

Page 40: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Explaining single Predictions

Page 41: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Ranking or Regression

Page 42: Predicting Properties of Small Molecules with Kernel-Based ...helper.ipam.ucla.edu/publications/ccsws2/ccsws2_9829.pdf · Kernel-Based Machine Learning Methods Klaus-Robert Müller,

Conclusion

• GPs and SVM have been applied

• CYP, hERG, metabolic stability, toxicity

• ranking, explaining, error bars

• Kernel holds the key

•Machine Learning Methods are universal

in many practical applications

toxicity, log p, log d, solubility, mutagenicity

universal tools and useful