predicting success - lak15 presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Predicting success: How learners’ prior knowledge, skills and activities predict
MOOC performance
Professor Gregor Kennedy,
Dr Carleton Coffrin,
Ms Paula de Barba
& Dr Linda Corrin
Last year…
QUESTION: To what degree does students’ prior knowledge and skills and
their engagement with the MOOC predict end-of-MOOC performance?
Prior Knowledge
Prior Knowledge
Content Knowledge
Pre-existing Generic Learning Skills
(Bransford, Brown and Cocking, 1999)
Problem Solving
Critical Thinking
Self-regulation
Metacognition
Activity Activity Activity Activity
Course Design – A Typical MOOC
Discussion Discussion Discussion Discussion
Assessment Assessment Assessment
Introduction
Local SearchMixed Integer Programming
Constraint Programming
Knapsack
Introduction Introduction
Graph Coloring
Introduction
Course Design – Discrete Optimization
Introduction
Local SearchMixed Integer Programming
Constraint Programming
Knapsack
Facility Location
Vehicle Routing
Graph Coloring
Travelling Salesman
Course Design – Discrete Optimization
Sample
Enrolled
37,777
Started
22,731
Active
6,635
Certificate
774
All participants Passing participants
Data & Measures
Grade book
Event log
Knapsack
Graph Coloring
Total points
Active days
Assignment switches
Prior content knowledge
Problem solving
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants Passing participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants Passing participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants Passing participants
Results
Model Beta Adj. R2 Beta Adj. R2
1 Knapsack points .726 53% .343 12%
2 Knapsack points .247 83% .127 40%
Graph coloring .728 .578
3 Knapsack points .177 .139
Graph coloring .384 .543
Assignment submissions -.005 91% .000 44%
Active days .204 .019
Assignment switching .314 .191
All participants Passing participants
4.7submissions
Implications
Provision of diagnostic measures of prior content knowledge
o Student feedback and support
o Setting course expectations
o Determining which students are encountering difficulty early on
Learning Analytics Research Group (LARG)
Prior knowledge
Motivation
etc…
/Content
Assessment
Performance
Persistence
Perception
Antecedent Participation Outcomes
Data mining
Assessment analytics
University of Melbourne
