predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in ireland: does day of the week matter? simone walsh, ena...

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Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

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Page 1: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter?

Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Page 2: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

NDRDI Background

• National Drug-Related Deaths Index (NDRDI) established in 2005

• Funded by Dept. of Health and Dept. of Justice and Equality

• European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

Page 3: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Overview

• 2,734 individuals died between 1998 and 2009 of a fatal drug overdose (poisoning) in Ireland

• Age and Gender• Significant Events (Christmas, St Patricks Day)• Substance involved and route of

administration• Who deceased was with and where they were

at the time of death

Page 4: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All NDRDI Poisoning Deaths 1998 to 2009

Page 5: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

5

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Page 6: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

6

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Per

cent

age

Page 7: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

7

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

Page 8: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

8

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

Page 9: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

9

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

Page 10: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All Cocaine Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

Page 11: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All cocaine poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=318

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

11

Page 12: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Cocaine Poisonings Excluding Opiates NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

Page 13: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,by day of the week n=146

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Day Of The Week

Nim

ber

13

Page 14: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week n=146

14

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 15: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,who with by day of the week n=146

15

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 16: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Heroin Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

Page 17: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

17

Heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, NDRDI n=643

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Page 18: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Non-injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI,1998 to 2009

Page 19: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

19

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Page 20: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

20

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 21: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

21

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

Page 22: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

22

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

Page 23: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

23

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

Page 24: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

24

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

AloneWithsomeone

Day of the Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 25: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI 1998 to 2009

Page 26: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

26

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Page 27: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

27

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by gender and day of the week, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 28: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

28

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

Page 29: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

29

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

Page 30: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

30

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

Page 31: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

31

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 32: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

32

Page 33: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All NDRDI Deaths by Week of the Month NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

Page 34: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

34

All NDRDI deaths by week of the month,1998 to 2009, n = 2,734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

FirstSecondThirdFourth

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 35: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

35

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 36: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

36

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

Page 37: Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter? Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

Findings

• Delivering harm reduction messages and treatment outcomes - day of the week does matter

• Subgroups within the drug using population are at risk different times of the week or month

• Opportunity to save a life