prediction of poland's economy in 2015 and to export there from us or not
DESCRIPTION
A Macroeconomics presentation I did in MBA with friends and fellow students - Alzahra, Sumitha and Milaena at the University of San Francisco, predicting the economic situation of Poland and deciding whether a USA chalk company should export to Finland in 2015 or not.TRANSCRIPT
Blakleyovich Enterprises International
By,Sumitha AlzahraMilenaMalvika
Poland
Predicted for 2015GDP : 3 %Interest Rates : 4.85 %Foreign Exchange : 3.1 Unemployment :
Economic Situation 2013 saw a low and a high in its GDP Fall in Private Consumption Recession in the Euro Zone reduced its exports in half
Why Investing in
Poland seems like a
safe bet ?
Steady increase in
GDP %
High growth & low
inflation
Low Labor Costs
Successfully combated recessions
High Market Flexibility
Poland Pension Reform Reversal
Strong portfolio of
banking assets
Zloty is steadily gaining
strength
Insulated from
Ukraine war
• USA accounted only for $ 3.2 bn in 2011 • Machinery and Transport
equipment, Intermediate manufactured goods, Chemicals, minerals, Fuels, Lubricants
Economic Growth Foundation
- Narrow array of industry and partners in imports and exports.
- GDP growth was not stable- Growth fueled by Monetary and Fiscal policies.
Category 10
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.55
% GDP growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Government Re-Shuffling
Decreased economic growth
Public support for government
lessens
Firing and replacement of 6 cabinet members
Prime Minister Donald Tusk
And the public says…• European Parliamentary Elections in May
• Civic Platform Party + Polish Peasant’s Party
VS. Law and Justice Party
• What currency to use? Zloty vs. Euro
IS LM
In 2015, IS will shift right due to more C, I and G.
LM
Zloty is a flexible currency. So, with higher GDP = higher interest rates =
higher f/x = lower exports =
lower NX.IS curve shifts back a bit,
r lowers.Net Result: r will rise a bit.
To export to Poland we want high f/x, high imports, good GDP, stability, low risk in 2015.
IS
No major move by the Central Bank. No major LM activity.
4.444.85
1.5 3
r
Y
Looking at GDP, YES.
GDP fell to 0.5 but going up now Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence high as per Economist Intelligence Unit.Europarliament giving EURO 105.8 billion to Poland to spend from 2014 to 2020
Going forward, to sell Poland some chalk or not?
Looking at Imports, YES.
Slow steady rise. No danger of going down.
10 Yr interest rate falling but staying between 4 and 6. f/x falling but staying between 3 and 3.5
Looking at interest rates and f/x, YES.
Our chalk is getting expensive for the Poles but just marginally. There will be no surprises in 2015.
Looking at the Monetary Policy, YES.
“I don’t see any reason for nervous moves. We have to monitor the situation, but I don’t think we will have to act because our economy is extremely well-balanced.”