predictions about politics · 2020. 8. 10. · predictions about politics a cure for polarization?...

Predictions about PoliticsA cure for polarization?

Aaron M. Houck, J.D., Ph.D.

Assistant Professor, Political Science

Friday, 11 October 2019

Let’s talk about politics!

abortion

Black Lives Matter movement

immigration

school prayer

…on second thought…

maybe let’s not talk about

politics

Polarization and Political

discourse

• Why is talking about politics so hard?

• How can we get anything done if we can’t talk to each other?

• What does any of this have to do with predictions???

Making predictions about

politics can alleviate the

symptoms of polarization.

U.S. politics is afflicted

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1. Diagnose the disease

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2.Find the cause

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3.Prescribe a cure

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Part One:

Diagnosing Polarization

What is polarization?

Hyperpartisanship

• coherent parties• distinct parties• intense views• close competition

Why is polarization bad?

Polarization leads to…



• gridlock;



• brinksmanship; and



• nastiness.

Voteview

Why is polarization

occurring?

Why is polarization

occurring?

• Southern realignment? (almost certainly)• media? (maybe)• low voter turnout? (maybe)• money in politics? (it depends)• gerrymandering? (probably not)• closed primaries (probably not)• polarization is the norm?

Why is polarization occurring?

Because politicians don’t care about the

disappearing common ground.

Part Two:

Finding a Cure

Increasing polarization in

Congress

Pew Research Center

But it’s not just them!

Polarization—it’s not just for

politicians

Engaged voters are more

polarized

Why is polarization occurring?

Because we, the people, don’t care about the

disappearing common ground.

We genuinely disagree with each other…

strongly.

Can we find common ground?

PetBucket


• ideologically?

PetBucket


• empirically?

PetBucket

Empirical common ground?

Daniel Patrick Moynihan (Photo: Bettmann/Corbis via npr.org)

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”

Choice #1

empirical beliefs

ideological beliefs

Some problems with facts…

• There are many facts.

• The facts often don’t unambiguously support one conclusion over others.

• People use facts to serve their ends.

Choice #1

empirical beliefs

ideological beliefs

Choice #2

future facts

past facts

That brings us to…predictions!

Part Three:

A Prescription for

Predictions

Why predictions?

Predictions promote…

Why predictions?


• clear, critical thinking

Why predictions?


• awareness of bias

Why predictions?


• common tongue

Why predictions?


• accountability

Why predictions?


• HUMILITY!

How to use predictions

1. Choose your topics (and metrics).

2. Make your predictions.

3. Assess your predictions.

4. Calibrate and repeat!

Step 1. Choose your topics

(and metrics)

a) Pick both familiar and unfamiliar topics

b) be specific

c) frame the question as a binary choice

d) identify the precise source of the information you’ll use to determine what happened

Sample topics

• Will the House impeach the president? If so, will the Senate remove him?

• Will Trump win reelection in 2020?

• Will the Supreme Court overrule Roe v. Wade in the next five years?

• A year from now, will the stock market be up or down? What about the unemployment rate?

Step 2. Make your predictions

a) do a little research

b)think about relevant mechanisms

c) start with the “base rate”

d)assign precise probabilities to your predictions

Sample prediction

Will Donald Trump win reelection in 2020?

Sample prediction


• incumbents usually win, especially in times of peace and prosperity;

• there’s no obvious, formidable Democrat;• but Trump is historically unpopular, • he’s subject to an impeachment inquiry,• and he barely won last time…;• plus there are reasons to suspect the economy

might worsen before November 2020…

Sample prediction


Probability of Trump reelection: 38%

Step 3. Assess your predictions

a) keep track of your predictions

b)it’s not cheating to update your predictions in light of new information

c) note whether the event occurred or not

Tracking weather forecasts

40%

65%

35%

10%

Chance of Rain

30%

15%

20%

30%

70%

Tracking weather forecasts

40%

65%

35%

10%

Chance of Rain

30%

15%

20%

30%

70%

Rain at CLT?

yes

yes

no

no

no

no

no

yes

yes

A good prediction?

60%

Forecast:

Actual weather:

?

Image (modified): Domics, “What’s a Shrug?” YouTube (8 December 2012).

Assessing your predictions

60%

Forecast:

Actual weather:

Assessing your predictions

20% 40%

20%

40%

0%

100%

60% 80% 100%

60%

80%

Predicted Probability

Fre

qu

en

cy

Step 4. Calibrate and repeat

a) learn from your mistakes

b)identify your blind spots

c) adopt a habit of systematic self-doubt (“why am I wrong?”)

d)learn to see the world more accurately

My vision, my hope

• people with different ideological perspectives gather to make (and assess!) predictions about politics

My vision, my hope

• the practice gives participants an incentive to see the empirical world accurately (rather than through an ideology-tinted lens)

My vision, my hope

• participants feel less negative partisanship and—perhaps—are better able to find common ground on policy

Questions and/or Comments?

Predictions about PoliticsA cure for polarization?

Aaron M. Houck, J.D., Ph.D.

Assistant Professor, Political Science

Friday, 11 October 2019

Why is polarization

occurring?

• Southern realignment?

Why is polarization

occurring?

Why is polarization

occurring?

• Southern realignment? (almost certainly)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• media?

Why is polarization

occurring?

Why is polarization

occurring?

• media? (maybe)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• low voter turnout?

Why is polarization

occurring?

United States Election Project

Why is polarization

occurring?

• low voter turnout? (maybe)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• money in politics?

Why is polarization

occurring?

Metrocosm

Metrocosm

Why is polarization

occurring?

• money in politics? (it depends)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• gerrymandering?

Why is polarization

occurring?

Barber and McCarty, in Persily, p. 29

Why is polarization

occurring?

• gerrymandering? (probably not)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• closed primaries

Why is polarization

occurring?

Why is polarization

occurring?

• closed primaries (probably not)

Why is polarization

occurring?

• polarization is the norm?

Voteview

Why is polarization

occurring?

Additional resources• Bueno de Mesquita, The

Predictioneer’s Game

• Silver, The Signal and the Noise

• Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting

predictions about politics · 2020. 8. 10. · predictions about politics a cure for polarization?...

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