predictive analytics and machine learning 101
TRANSCRIPT
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Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning 101Poya Manouchehri@PoyaManouchehri
NEUROMINE
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WHAT IS PREDICTION?
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WHAT IS LEARNING?
• CONNECTING THE DOTS (INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION)
• NOT EXACT• PROCESS• EXPERIMENTATION / TRIAL AND ERROR
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WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE?
• LEARNING• REASONING• INSTINCT• HIGHER NATURE
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MACHINE LOGIC VS LEARNING
IF TEMPERATURE IS LOWAND IT IS OVERCASTAND IT RAINED YESTERDAYTHEN IT WILL RAIN TODAY
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TYPES OF PROBLEMS
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REGRESSION AND CLASSIFICATION
ModelIndependent Variable
Dependent Variable
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CLUSTERING
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MACHINE LEARNING PROCESS
Data(Independent and
Dependant Variables)
Training Model
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DECISION TREES
INPUT:• EYES EXIST• NUMBER OF LEGS• FURRINESSOUTPUT:• CAT, PERSON, CHAIR, OTHER
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DECISION TREES
SAMPLE DATA:• YES, 4, FURRY CAT• YES, 2, NOT FURRY PERSON• NO, 2, NOT FURRY OTHER• …
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4<4 >4
Number of Legs
Other
Furry Not Furry
Cat
Furriness
Chair
Yes
Eyes Exist
No
OtherPerso
n
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NEURAL NETWORKS
Neuron
Synapse
Neuron
Neuron
Synapse
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NEURAL NETWORKS
Actual
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NEURAL NETWORKS – FEATURE DETECTORS
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NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR
Input 1 Input 2 Output0 0 00 1 11 0 11 1 0
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NEURAL NETWORKS - XOR
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
XOR
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
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CHALLENGES – GOOD DATA
• NOT ENOUGH DATA• UNREPRESENTATIVE DATA• NO REAL RELATIONSHIPS IN DATA
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CHALLENGES – GENERALISATION
Output
Input
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CHALLENGES – LOCAL MINIMA
Error
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APPLICATIONS – IMAGE / VOICE RECOGNITION
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APPLICATIONS – HEALTH
• DIAGNOSIS (E.G. CANCER)• PATIENT RE-ADMISSION
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APPLICATIONS – PERSONALIZATION
• TARGETED MARKETING• RECOMMENDATION• CHURN ANALYSIS• LEAD SCORING
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APPLICATIONS – FINANCE
• PAYMENT FRAUD DETECTION• STOCK PRICE PREDICTION• INVENTORY MANAGEMENT• SALES PREDICTION
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APPLICATIONS – ANOMALY DETECTION
• DETECTING FAULTY HARDWARE (IN SERVER FARM)• INTRUDER ALERT• SPAM FILTERS
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SOFTWARE AND SERVICESOPEN-SOURCE• R PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE• WEKA• ORANGE
COMMERCIAL• MATHEMATICA• MATLAB• SQL SERVER ANALYSIS SERVICES (SSAS)
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SOFTWARE AND SERVICESSERVICES• GOOGLE PREDICTION API• AZURE ML• NEUROMINE• BIGML• WISE.IO• ALGORITHMS.IO• INFER.COM...
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RESOURCESCOURSERA:• GEOFFREY HINTON - NEURAL NETWORKS FOR MACHINE
LEARNING
DATA SOURCES:• UCI MACHINE LEARNING REPOSITORY• AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
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QUESTIONS