predpol presentation to seattle police department

Seattle Police Department

Predictive Policing

Predictive Policing

• No standard definition • Paradigm • Similar to weather forecasting • Not Minority Report

Presenter

Presentation Notes

What is it Predictive Policing…There isn’t really a formal definition of predictive policing – but in a nut shell – its policing the risk to prevent future crime and not just deploying officers randomly or in response to calls or even where crimes having been occurring. Predictive Policing is actually a paradigm but there a lot of buzz words…most revolve around data analysis or math formulas… This is similar to weather forecasting –not a Minority Report or that Person of Interest TV show

Types of Crime Analysis High

Low (No) Source: Exploring Crime Analysis (2005)

Small group of incidents

Level of Aggregation

One incident

Pattern focused

Larger group of incidents by area and/or crime type

Large to all incidents by city, sector or crime type

Crime Series

Person or incident focused

Crime Hot-spots

Long-term trends

Broad-level focus

Reports (i.e. dashboards)

Examples

Crime type or place-based focus

Presenter

Presentation Notes

To explain what the predictive policing paradigm is and how we are already using it – I’m using the crime analysis types as a frameworks to hopefully make it more understandable for command staff since most have been trained up on crime analysis concepts or directed policing efforts based on analytical products.

www.predpol.com

PredPol is …

• software technology that predicts the time and place of future crimes

• high level mathematics combined with experienced

crime analysts and veteran police using their own knowledge and experience

• more than “rear view mirror” policing

that simply maps past crime

www.predpol.com

the science repeat victimization

near-repeats local search

offender behavior mathematical model

2

4B D B Bt

η ω θωδ∂= ∇ − +

∂

deployment to officers in the field

• lists or maps of predictions in 500’ x 500’ boxes

• distributed at start of shift or on-demand • ‘get in the box’ to disrupt crime during patrols

LAPD Deployment

500’

Santa Cruz PD Deployment

making predictive policing practical

tactical ambiguity tactical clarity

‘Get in the Box’

500’

environmental design problem-oriented community policing

intelligence-led broken-windows micro place-based

Disrupt Crime by…

•Detection •Apprehension •Prevention

Crime Detection

Best chance for being at the right place at the right time

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Crime detection – the best chance for being at the right place at the right time.

Crime Apprehension

Even being near the right place, near the right time is beneficial

One study found that when the first police car arrived

within 4 minutes of a Burglary in Progress call, an arrest was twice as likely as when they arrived at 6 minutes Arrest at the time of burglary is less time-consuming than detecting them after the offenders have left the crime scene

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Crime apprehension - Even being near the right place, near the right time is beneficial even if its not the officers who are detecting the crime but responding to the call. One study found that when the first police car arrived within 4 minutes of a Burglary in Progress call, an arrest was twice as likely as when they arrived at 6 minutes Additionally, the apprehension of offenders in the act of burglary is less time-consuming than detecting them after the offenders have left the crime scene (Coupe & Griffiths, 1996; McLaughlin et al., 2007). Think of how much time your or detectives spend searching for partial license plate matches or known offenders living in or who have been stopped in the area.

Crime Prevention

High Opportunity/Low Incentive Low Opportunity/High Incentive

“Opportunity makes the thief” Drug Addicts Bored Teens

policing the risk = reducing the opportunity

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Finally tactical deployment for the purpose of Crime Prevention – and this gets back to the predictive policing paradigm – where the risk of a crime is policed. Opportunity for burglaries can be categorized along a continuum, low incentive-high opportunity at one end – think juvenile offenders, and high incentive-low opportunity at the other end – like drug addicts who need to feed their habit and will go out daily to search out an opportunity to steal something. So policing the risk removes or blocks the opportunity. Not all crime will be displaced – some will be deterred Offenders typically offend in their awareness space – they are less likely to venture too far away commit crime – So more motivated offenders may switch to a different lower crime (vehicle prowl – theft from a yard)

double the accuracy with PredPol

LAPD Foothill Deployment Nov 2011-April 2012

predictive policing in Santa Cruz, CA

-19%

Santa Cruz burglaries 1st half 2011 vs. 1st half 2012

how do we know it worked in L.A.?

serious property crime all L.A. divisions

Nov ‘11 to May ‘12

-12%

-12%

L.A. Foothill Division

+0.4%

Rest of L.A.

Standardized: October 15 2011 = October 16, 2010

the impact of PredPol

start of LAPD rollout

2010-2011

2011-2012

Day

-12.8%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

t2

Predicting Gun Violence with PredPol (Chicago)

Contributions to Prediction

Prediction Accuracy

PreviousHomicideRobbery

Assualt

Weapons Volation

Battery

Components to Gun Homicide

Homicide Robbery Assault Weapons Violation

Battery

Statistical Model

5.5% 13.9% 23.6% 32.1% 24.8%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

This table shows for two related versions of the PredPol model for gun violence the relative contributions of non-homicide gun crimes to gun homicide. There are a few surprises here: e.g., previous gun homicides only contribute 5.5% to the predictability of future gun homicides while weapons violations contribute 32.1% to prediction of future crimes. From a policing point of view these data make PredPol predictions of gun homicide more accurate than alternative methods AND it also suggests the type of practical policing activities in prediction boxes that may impact gun homicide.

Chicago 2009-2011 PredPol

hotspotting (3 week)

random

perc

ent h

omic

ides

pre

dict

ed

2x

PredPol predicts gun violence

• is NOT: • a replacement for knowledge, skills & experience • profiling of individuals • probable cause • new hardware or new hires

• IS:

• assigning probabilities of crime in space and time • focal points for effective use of police resources • use of existing crime data

PredPol

SPD Predicted Offenses

• Residential Burglary • Commercial Burglary • Vehicle Prowl • Auto Theft • Robbery • Assualts

Selected Offenses Future Offenses

• Gun Violence • Homicide

SPD Tactical Measurement • Similar to “Koper Curve” deployment • Time in box = 15 – 20 min every 1 to 2 hrs • Concept – Time in box measured by GPS • Black, Red, Amber, and Green color codes for

dosage or treatment of areas • Green box indicates success

Strategic Plan

Comprehensive Data Driven Approach to

Crime Management

Info view

Directed Patrol

Crimeview Incident Mapping

CAU Tactical Crime

Analysis

Data-Driven Objectives

• Create a situational awareness of citywide crime activity, trends, and emerging issues (hard & soft crime)

• Identify effective crime fighting strategies, tactics, and resources to address those issues

• Ensure follow-up and assessment so that desired results are achieved and sustained, and successful strategies and tactics are replicated

predpol presentation to seattle police department

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